U.S.-Taiwan Relations: Will China's Challenge Lead to a Crisis?

by Ryan Hass, Bonnie Glaser, Richard Bush

Anxiety about China's growing military capabilities to threaten Taiwan has induced alarm in Washington about whether the United States remains capable of deterring attempts to seize Taiwan by force. This alarm has fed American impulses to alter longstanding policy, and to increasingly view challenges confronting Taiwan through a military lens. While Taiwan clearly is under growing military threat, it also is facing a simultaneous and intensifying Chinese political campaign to wear down the will of the Taiwan people. This latter line of effort receives less attention, but left unaddressed, has the potential to do far more damage to American interests.

This book rightsizes the risks confronting Taiwan by taking a holistic view of China's national ambitions and Taiwan's role in them, China's strategies for pursuing unification with Taiwan, and America's most effective responses. Contrary to many other books on the market, the authors make the case for why conflict in the Taiwan Strait is not preordained, and in fact, it would be strategic folly for the United States to conclude that conflict is inescapable.

Hass, Bush, and Glaser argue that the center of gravity for determining the future of Taiwan is the will of Taiwan's 23 million people. American policy should focus on their hopes and fears if the United States wishes to maintain influence over events in the Taiwan Strait. This calls for American resoluteness and steadiness of purpose in fortifying Taiwan's economic dynamism, political autonomy, military preparedness, and dignity and respect on the world stage. Maintaining credible military deterrence is the minimum threshold, not the measure of success. U.S.-Taiwan Relations will be an invaluable resource for students, researchers, and journalists to understand this critical moment in U.S. foreign policy.

Genres: China, Politics, Nonfiction, History, International Relations, International Affairs

296 pages, Kindle Edition

Published April 15, 2023

Reviews

[Haleigh · Rating 5 out of 5]

As someone that has followed this issue through study, reading the news, and work, I didn’t find too much of this to be groundbreaking. But overall this was a well-written, concise overview of U.S.-Taiwan relations, with succinct ideas regarding what policy goals the U.S. may wish to achieve in the near future.

[Ted Tyler · Rating 5 out of 5]

Short, but packed with long-term knowledge and wisdom. I've long been a fan of the three authors: Ryan Hass (former NSC China Director), Bonnie Glaser (long-time think tank expert at CSIS and now the German Marshall Fund), and Richard Bush (former Chairman, American Institute in Taiwan). Anything they write is worth reading and considering. Collectively, but also on their own merit.

If you were to read one book on U.S.-Taiwan relations, then this would be the book to read. It is rooted in history, considers the present-day circumstances, and humbly looks to the future. And best of all, it thinks about how China fits into U.S.-Taiwan relations. The second compelling point is that the book has only 130 pages of text (including chapter endnotes). The reference materials and appendices make it a nice handbook/educational material, but still only bring the total length to 177 pages.

H.G.B. (the authors) argue that U.S. interests are best served by deterring unilateral changes to the cross-Strait status quo. This means enhancing military deterrence to raise the price China would pay to forcefully seize Taiwan. It also means encouraging Taiwan to better defend itself and focus on building a healthier, more globally-integrated economy.

"The purpose of American policy is not to dictate any specific outcome to cross-Strait relations. The limited aim of American strategy is to elongate the time horizon for leaders in Taipei and Beijing to explore peaceful, noncoerced solutions to cross-Strait challenges. If leaders in Taipei or Beijing abandon all hope of any peaceful solution to cross-Strait differences, then the risk will spike for one or both sides to take actions that could precipitate conflict. A war in the Taiwan Strait would constitute a failure of American statecraft."

[Ben · Rating 4 out of 5]

A very good book on foreign policy with China, in relation to Taiwan.

4.1/5

[Brady Turpin · Rating 5 out of 5]

This text was thorough, informative, and instructive. A must read for anyone interested in the unique triangle of relations between the US-ROC-PRC.

[Tchonn · Rating 5 out of 5]

After having spent the past two years reading mostly about Taiwan, I can quite confidently say that this book is the best book out there to get a broad understanding of Cross-Strait issues.

It's short (130 pages), very dense, and well researched. By covering all of the history of the Cross-Strait issue since its inception in 1949 — highlighting PRC, Taiwan and US policies for each period —, it provides precious historical background that brings more clarity to a very modern and complex issue.

This book is by far a must-read for anyone interested in the situation in the Taiwan strait.

Two minor comments:
- Having been published in 2023, the book is now relatively speaking outdated, as a result of how fast-evolving Cross-Strait issues are. The fact that the policy recommendation chapter doesn't mention the word "resilience" is quite telling about how things have evolved since the book came out. I can only encourage the authors to publish an update version regularly.
- The authors rarely mention the role other countries have played or can play in maintaining the status quo. It's not surprising for a book called "US-Taiwan Relations". But given how the uncertainty over America's Taiwan policy under Trump 2 has led Taiwan to look for partners elsewhere, an updated version would benefit from depicting like-minded countries as something else than simple pawns the sole purpose of which is to give more weight to American policies.

[Hiro Fu · Rating 5 out of 5]

This is likely one of the most concise and up to date accounts on how U.S. policy towards Taiwan has progressed in recent history. While recommendations listed in the book are mainly aimed at U.S. policymakers, a few sobering points — the need for bipartisan consensus on Taiwan’s China approach, a return to the Overall Defense Concept, and bolstering Taiwan’s international dignity — are still highly relevant for readers coming from a Taiwanese perspective. The book also serves as a good primer on the topic as both Taiwan and the U.S. are headed for presidential elections in 2024, during which the cross-strait issue will surely play a role.

[RJ Tinker · Rating 5 out of 5]

One could not ask for a more concise and thoughtful report on the situation. A great primer for anyone who is serious about understanding the dynamic.

[Alex · Rating 4 out of 5]

Fantastic short book by 3 of the best minds on the topic, both serving as a synopsis of recent history and to focus the center of gravity of the issue on the Taiwan people while limiting the US role to keep space open for the people of mainland China and Taiwan and their representatives to solve the cross-Strait future themselves—however long that may take. Well worth reading.

[Nick · Rating 4 out of 5]

Concise history of cross-Strait relations and US policy on Taiwan. A good primer with well-reasoned recommendations.