The Timeline of Presidential Elections: How Campaigns Do (and Do Not) Matter

Chicago Studies in American Politics

by Robert S. Erikson, Christopher Wlezien

In presidential elections, do voters cast their ballots for the candidates whose platform and positions best match their own? Or is the race for president of the United States come down largely to who runs the most effective campaign? It’s a question those who study elections have been considering for years with no clear resolution. In The Timeline of Presidential Elections, Robert S. Erikson and Christopher Wlezien reveal for the first time how both factors come into play.

 

Erikson and Wlezien have amassed data from close to two thousand national polls covering every presidential election from 1952 to 2008, allowing them to see how outcomes take shape over the course of an election year. Polls from the beginning of the year, they show, have virtually no predictive power. By mid-April, when the candidates have been identified and matched in pollsters’ trial heats, preferences have come into focus—and predicted the winner in eleven of the fifteen elections. But a similar process of forming favorites takes place in the last six months, during which voters’ intentions change only gradually, with particular events—including presidential debates—rarely resulting in dramatic change.

 

Ultimately, Erikson and Wlezien show that it is through campaigns that voters are made aware of—or not made aware of—fundamental factors like candidates’ policy positions that determine which ticket will get their votes. In other words, fundamentals matter, but only because of campaigns. Timely and compelling, this book will force us to rethink our assumptions about presidential elections.

Genres: Politics, Political Science, History, Presidents

216 pages, Paperback

First published August 24, 2012

Reviews

[Nora Winckler · Rating 1 out of 5]

This book literally put me to sleep. The only thing you need to read is Chapter 8. That is a 20-page summary of what was said in the first 165 pages.

[Liquidlasagna · Rating 4 out of 5]

seems the first and the last chapters are readable

Elections are decided in April - May - June - July - August


BEGIN
DO WHILE VOTE FOREVER LOOP;
WHILE SPRING;
UNTIL SUMMER;
ELSE SUICIDE;
END;

UNIVAC 9400


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the wild Amazone

Unreadable
2/10

This book has gotten a bit of press lately, as its thesis is a counter intuitive one: American voters decide their presidential vote sometime between April and August, with conventions being a big factor in the decision and debates a non-factor.

I was intrigued and ordered the book to be convinced. The back cover has a great narrative summarizing the thesis and asking key questions about the implications.

Unfortunately, the snazzy cover and provocative thesis are dressing up what is really an academic paper, with lots of regressions, formulas, asides about methodology, and complaints about data limitation. There's no narrative and few examples, and many of the charts are unreadable to anyone without a doctorate in statistics.

I'm disappointed since I imagine the authors found something interesting. They're just incapable of explaining it to a lay person.

Joseph Henchman

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Seminal title that everyone should read
8/10

Not sure what the other reviewers were talking about, but it must have been another book.

This is a seminal work that is not only timely, but also explains what many of us have wondered about the seemingly never-ending campaign season: Does it matter and, if so, why and how?

Perhaps we laypeople wonder about it in less than academic terms, but thankfully Erikson and Wlezien have managed to spell things out, about the voting public, about preferences, about how the election season moves and morphs, and ultimately how campaigns do and don't predict the outcome, in language and ideas that virtually everyone can understand.

C. Adams

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[Joe · Rating 3 out of 5]

An interesting study, but obviously very academic. If you're not deeply invested in stats, you can pick up most of what you want here from the first and last chapters or the inevitable 538 citation.

[Audrea · Rating 5 out of 5]

yes this counts for my year in books.

[Benjamin Hill · Rating 1 out of 5]

It was super boring unfortunately.