Committing to Peace: The Successful Settlement of Civil Wars

by Barbara F. Walter

Why do some civil wars end in successfully implemented peace settlements while others are fought to the finish? Numerous competing theories address this question. Yet not until now has a study combined the historical sweep, empirical richness, and conceptual rigor necessary to put them thoroughly to the test and draw lessons invaluable to students, scholars, and policymakers. Using data on every civil war fought between 1940 and 1992, Barbara Walter details the conditions that lead combatants to partake in what she defines as a three-step process--the decision on whether to initiate negotiations, to compromise, and, finally, to implement any resulting terms. Her key rarely are such conflicts resolved without active third-party intervention.

Walter argues that for negotiations to succeed it is not enough for the opposing sides to resolve the underlying issues behind a civil war. Instead the combatants must clear the much higher hurdle of designing credible guarantees on the terms of agreement--something that is difficult without outside assistance. Examining conflicts from Greece to Laos, China to Columbia, Bosnia to Rwanda, Walter confirms just how crucial the prospect of third-party security guarantees and effective power-sharing pacts can be--and that adversaries do, in fact, consider such factors in deciding whether to negotiate or fight. While taking many other variables into account and acknowledging that third parties must also weigh the costs and benefits of involvement in civil war resolution, this study reveals not only how peace is possible, but probable.

Genres: Political Science, International Relations, Nonfiction, War

216 pages, Paperback

First published December 26, 2001

About the author

Barbara F. Walter is the Rohr Professor of International Relations at the School of Global Policy and Strategy at the University of California, San Diego. A life member of the Council on Foreign Relations, Walter helps to run the award-winning blog Political Violence at a Glance and has written for The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, Los Angeles Times, Reuters, and Foreign Affairs.

Reviews

[Nathan · Rating 5 out of 5]

This is one of the more down-to-world (as opposed to -earth) books I have read. I used ChatGPT to understand what genre it could be and it gave me back ‘Theory-driven empirical social science monograph’. Being so, it is Dr. Walter’s in-depth study on the peaceful resolution of civil wars, using theory and case study interpretation paired with quantitative analysis of all 72 civil wars that took place between 1940-1992 to understand the statistical significance of key factors identified in competing theories of conflict resolution, including her own hypothesis, at each of the major phases in process: 1.) agreeing as warring parties to meet face-to-face and discuss peaceful terms, 2.) finding compromise and signing the settlement, 3.) implementing the terms of the deal through demobilization and establishment of the new government. Dr. Walter’s hypothesis, in short, is that security guarantees from outside-parties are almost essential before either warring party can safely transition to a peaceful state without fear of being taken advantage of by the other side as they demobilize. Additionally, for that time when military demobilization is complete, faithful implementation of a peace settlement is often dependent on political guarantees (such as quotas for participation in the first parliaments) in order to maintain the conflicting factions’ long-term claim in the unified government. Without such guarantees of short- and long-term security, one party or the other is likely to believe war is still the better option. Later, with those guarantees built into a settled peace, there arises new challenges to democratic functioning. Many other insights abound, and I found that this research and presentation method allowed me to think through the problems in their complexity while also critically assessing all of the respective building blocks. The process here begins with the state of civil war and ends (ideally) with the implementation of a semi-peaceful settlement: what we do not see is what existed before and what drove these conflicts in the first place; whether the violent or more non-violent conclusions we see carried any justice or injustice; nor what the peace ultimately meant for long-term security, prosperity, and well-being. To go from evident conflict to evident peace is a start, but there is also the concept of positive peace that measures not only the absence of conflict but the state of life. I found Dr. Walter’s book to be an excellent foundation; however well it shows that long-term democratic health will be difficult indeed.

[Greg · Rating 4 out of 5]

This is a larger treatment of her article "The Critical Barrier to Civil War Settlement". The findings indicate that security guarantees are the crucial determinant of a successful settlement of a civil war. It relies on rational choice theories of conflict and is heavy on game theory. The quantitative analysis seems to support the theory that in the absence of third-party security guarantees, civil wars are unlikely to end.

[Mike Edwards · Rating 5 out of 5]

Using a combination of game theory, statistical modeling, and historical analysis, Walter argues that a credible third-party guarantor dramatically increases the likelihood of success for any civil war peace agreement. Walter notes that conflicts and tensions will necessarily arise between any factions who are enemies one day, and forced to coexist peacefully the next day. Without a third-party to monitor and/or enforce the agreement, those conflicts are much more likely to escalate into a full-blown resumption of hostilities. It's a simple theory, explained in a clear and convincing manner, and is an important step forward in our understanding of conflict.

[C.]

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