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The Candidate
There are two winners in every presidential election The inevitable winner when it begins--such as Rudy Giuliani or Hillary Clinton in 2008--and the inevitable victor after it ends. In The Candidate , Samuel Popkin explains the difference between them.
While plenty of political insiders have written about specific campaigns, only Popkin--drawing on a lifetime of presidential campaign experience and extensive research--analyzes what it takes to win the next campaign. The road to the White House is littered with geniuses of campaigns past. Why doesn't practice make perfect? Why is experience such a poor teacher? Why are the same mistakes replayed again and again?
Based on detailed analyses of the winners--and losers--of the last 60 years of presidential campaigns, Popkin explains how challengers get to the White House, how incumbents stay there for a second term, and how successors hold power for their party. He looks in particular at three campaigns--George H.W. Bush's muddled campaign for reelection in 1992, Al Gore's flawed campaign for the presidency in 2000, and Hillary Clinton's mismanaged effort to win the nomination in 2008--and uncovers the lessons that Ronald Reagan can teach future candidates about teamwork. Throughout, Popkin illuminates the intricacies of presidential campaigns--the small details and the big picture, the surprising mistakes and the predictable miscues--in a riveting account of what goes on inside a campaign and what makes one succeed while another fails.
As Popkin shows, a vision for the future and the audacity to run are only the first steps in a candidate's run for office. To truly survive the most grueling show on earth, presidential hopefuls have to understand the critical factors that Popkin reveals in The Candidate . In the wake of the 2012 election, Popkin's analysis looks remarkably prescient. Obama ran a strong incumbent-oriented campaign but made typical incumbent mistakes, as evidenced by his weak performance in the first debate. The Romney campaign correctly put power in the hands of a strong campaign manager, but it couldn't overcome the weaknesses of the candidate.
While plenty of political insiders have written about specific campaigns, only Popkin--drawing on a lifetime of presidential campaign experience and extensive research--analyzes what it takes to win the next campaign. The road to the White House is littered with geniuses of campaigns past. Why doesn't practice make perfect? Why is experience such a poor teacher? Why are the same mistakes replayed again and again?
Based on detailed analyses of the winners--and losers--of the last 60 years of presidential campaigns, Popkin explains how challengers get to the White House, how incumbents stay there for a second term, and how successors hold power for their party. He looks in particular at three campaigns--George H.W. Bush's muddled campaign for reelection in 1992, Al Gore's flawed campaign for the presidency in 2000, and Hillary Clinton's mismanaged effort to win the nomination in 2008--and uncovers the lessons that Ronald Reagan can teach future candidates about teamwork. Throughout, Popkin illuminates the intricacies of presidential campaigns--the small details and the big picture, the surprising mistakes and the predictable miscues--in a riveting account of what goes on inside a campaign and what makes one succeed while another fails.
As Popkin shows, a vision for the future and the audacity to run are only the first steps in a candidate's run for office. To truly survive the most grueling show on earth, presidential hopefuls have to understand the critical factors that Popkin reveals in The Candidate . In the wake of the 2012 election, Popkin's analysis looks remarkably prescient. Obama ran a strong incumbent-oriented campaign but made typical incumbent mistakes, as evidenced by his weak performance in the first debate. The Romney campaign correctly put power in the hands of a strong campaign manager, but it couldn't overcome the weaknesses of the candidate.
350 pages, Hardcover
First published January 1, 2012
9 people are currently reading
202 people want to read
About the author
Samuel L. Popkin
8 books7 followersFrom Wikipedia:
Samuel L. Popkin (born June 9, 1942) is a noted political scientist who teaches at the University of California, San Diego. He received his Ph.D. from M.I.T. in 1969. Popkin has played a role in the development of rational choice theory within political science. He is also noted for his work as a pollster. Popkin has published in unusually diverse areas. His most recent book is The Reasoning Voter: Communication and Persuasion in Presidential Campaigns; earlier he co-authored Issues and Strategies: The Computer Simulation of Presidential Campaigns; and he co-edited Chief of Staff: Twenty-Five Years of Managing the Presidency. He is equally well known for his work on peasant society, with particular reference to East and Southeast Asia, including The Rational Peasant: The Political Economy of Rural Society in Vietnam. Popkin has also been a consulting analyst in presidential campaigns, serving as consultant on Bill Clinton's presidential campaign on polling and strategy, to the CBS News election units from 1983 to 1990 on survey design and analysis, and more recently to the Gore campaign. He has also served as consultant to political parties in Canada and Europe and to the Departments of State and Defense. His current research focuses on presidential campaigns and the relationship of public opinion to foreign policy. He is married to Susan Shirk, Professor of Political Science at the Graduate School of International Relations and Pacific Studies at the University of California, San Diego.
Samuel L. Popkin (born June 9, 1942) is a noted political scientist who teaches at the University of California, San Diego. He received his Ph.D. from M.I.T. in 1969. Popkin has played a role in the development of rational choice theory within political science. He is also noted for his work as a pollster. Popkin has published in unusually diverse areas. His most recent book is The Reasoning Voter: Communication and Persuasion in Presidential Campaigns; earlier he co-authored Issues and Strategies: The Computer Simulation of Presidential Campaigns; and he co-edited Chief of Staff: Twenty-Five Years of Managing the Presidency. He is equally well known for his work on peasant society, with particular reference to East and Southeast Asia, including The Rational Peasant: The Political Economy of Rural Society in Vietnam. Popkin has also been a consulting analyst in presidential campaigns, serving as consultant on Bill Clinton's presidential campaign on polling and strategy, to the CBS News election units from 1983 to 1990 on survey design and analysis, and more recently to the Gore campaign. He has also served as consultant to political parties in Canada and Europe and to the Departments of State and Defense. His current research focuses on presidential campaigns and the relationship of public opinion to foreign policy. He is married to Susan Shirk, Professor of Political Science at the Graduate School of International Relations and Pacific Studies at the University of California, San Diego.
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Displaying 1 - 15 of 15 reviews
May 11, 2017
L'esperienza statistica dice che, per vincere elezioni così complesse come quelle per arrivare alla Casa Bianca, sia condizione necessaria e sufficiente uno staff efficace ed efficiente. Poi, però, si devono fare i conti con la dura e beffarda realtà. Se oggi T***p siede nell'ufficio ovale, lo si deve più ai demeriti di una campagna supponente e ignava, o più alla famosa pancia del Paese, esausta?
July 23, 2018
If you want to study campaigns this is definitely a must read book.
January 23, 2021
good political lesson
December 7, 2022
Essential reading for anyone wanting to understand campaigning and expand their political knowledge.
December 17, 2012
(Note: Customer review from the Amazon Vine™ Program)
(FULL DISCLOSURE: The author of this book, Samuel Popkins, was one of my professors at the University of California, San Diego, where he continues to teach to this day. I enjoyed his class and his prior book,
The Reasoning Voter: Communication and Persuasion in Presidential Campaigns, immensely, but have tried to appraise this book as objectively as possible). There have been many books written about how a presidential campaign was run in the past. Many of you reading this probably have already seen the classic documentary The War Room about the '92 Clinton campaign or read David Plouffe's campaign-insider book,
The Audacity to Win: The Inside Story and Lessons of Barack Obama's Historic Victory. But this one will probably last longer as a how-to guide for presidential electioneering because the author, Prof. Popkin, looks at the challenges different candidates have to face and refuses to say that one way will work every time. Prof. Popkin boils the book down to descriptions of the three types of presidential candidates: the challenger, the incumbent, and the successor. The prologue and the first two chapters introduce the subject and lay down some basic ground rules for all types of candidates, then the following six chapters alternate between describing how challengers, incumbents, and successors can win with an example of one of those types lost (ex. the chapter describing the challenger candidate campaign is followed by a chapter on Hillary Clinton's failed '08 primary campaign). Then in the final two chapters he sums up how, regardless of what kind of candidate you are, you can only win with an effective campaign team in place and asks the perennial election question: is this any way to pick a president? Throughout he also notes that changes in media and technology every four years will mean that campaign tactics that won the last time may not help you win the next time (are you reading this, Pres. Obama?). Different readers will like different parts of this book. Political operatives and junkies will enjoy the chapters outlining the strategies for challengers, incumbents, and successors while average readers will enjoy the blow-by-blow accounts of the different races covered for each kind of candidate (Clinton '08, Bush '92, and Gore '00). The last chapter, while interesting, is a little superfluous and the chapter on describing successor candidates was consumed by Bush's '88 campaign, but these are only small knocks against an otherwise great read. Be sure to be checking out the campaign staff photos for this election and elections to come. I would imagine you will see plenty of copies of this book in the background.
(FULL DISCLOSURE: The author of this book, Samuel Popkins, was one of my professors at the University of California, San Diego, where he continues to teach to this day. I enjoyed his class and his prior book,
The Reasoning Voter: Communication and Persuasion in Presidential Campaigns, immensely, but have tried to appraise this book as objectively as possible). There have been many books written about how a presidential campaign was run in the past. Many of you reading this probably have already seen the classic documentary The War Room about the '92 Clinton campaign or read David Plouffe's campaign-insider book,
The Audacity to Win: The Inside Story and Lessons of Barack Obama's Historic Victory. But this one will probably last longer as a how-to guide for presidential electioneering because the author, Prof. Popkin, looks at the challenges different candidates have to face and refuses to say that one way will work every time. Prof. Popkin boils the book down to descriptions of the three types of presidential candidates: the challenger, the incumbent, and the successor. The prologue and the first two chapters introduce the subject and lay down some basic ground rules for all types of candidates, then the following six chapters alternate between describing how challengers, incumbents, and successors can win with an example of one of those types lost (ex. the chapter describing the challenger candidate campaign is followed by a chapter on Hillary Clinton's failed '08 primary campaign). Then in the final two chapters he sums up how, regardless of what kind of candidate you are, you can only win with an effective campaign team in place and asks the perennial election question: is this any way to pick a president? Throughout he also notes that changes in media and technology every four years will mean that campaign tactics that won the last time may not help you win the next time (are you reading this, Pres. Obama?). Different readers will like different parts of this book. Political operatives and junkies will enjoy the chapters outlining the strategies for challengers, incumbents, and successors while average readers will enjoy the blow-by-blow accounts of the different races covered for each kind of candidate (Clinton '08, Bush '92, and Gore '00). The last chapter, while interesting, is a little superfluous and the chapter on describing successor candidates was consumed by Bush's '88 campaign, but these are only small knocks against an otherwise great read. Be sure to be checking out the campaign staff photos for this election and elections to come. I would imagine you will see plenty of copies of this book in the background. October 25, 2013
Another political winner that is objective and not partisan.
I can't get enough of these books that explain politics without pandering, name-calling or are extremely biased.
Samuel Popkin takes us through the definitions of U.S. President candidates and how the winners win while the supposed winner loses. You won't get the party-line or the typical, "here's how that scumbag tricked us" lines you expect in political books.
The first part is abstract in just the terms while sporadically bringing in real-life examples of past candidates. He explains the different types of campaigns a candidate can run. There are only so many to choose: Challenger, Incumbant. Experience/Stability, Outsider/Reformer It's the latter part of the book that is truly excellent.
Popkin explores President George H.W. Bush's messed up re-election candidacy, Hillary Clinton's micromanaged "inevitable" campaign, and Al Gore's complete meltdown.
You'll read how George W. Bush was able to beat the successor during a time of peace and wealth; how Rudy Giuliani was the winner in all the polls until he actually started running and how a number of other candidates just could not connect, or hold on to their mojo. You'll even get to see how President Obama used the new media and bottom-up mentality to throw off Hillary Clinton's dreamteam.
In the end, Popkin points to Ronald Reagan in order to teach future candidates how to handle miscues, mistakes and misfires.
A fantastic read during a Presidential cycle.
I can't get enough of these books that explain politics without pandering, name-calling or are extremely biased.
Samuel Popkin takes us through the definitions of U.S. President candidates and how the winners win while the supposed winner loses. You won't get the party-line or the typical, "here's how that scumbag tricked us" lines you expect in political books.
The first part is abstract in just the terms while sporadically bringing in real-life examples of past candidates. He explains the different types of campaigns a candidate can run. There are only so many to choose: Challenger, Incumbant. Experience/Stability, Outsider/Reformer It's the latter part of the book that is truly excellent.
Popkin explores President George H.W. Bush's messed up re-election candidacy, Hillary Clinton's micromanaged "inevitable" campaign, and Al Gore's complete meltdown.
You'll read how George W. Bush was able to beat the successor during a time of peace and wealth; how Rudy Giuliani was the winner in all the polls until he actually started running and how a number of other candidates just could not connect, or hold on to their mojo. You'll even get to see how President Obama used the new media and bottom-up mentality to throw off Hillary Clinton's dreamteam.
In the end, Popkin points to Ronald Reagan in order to teach future candidates how to handle miscues, mistakes and misfires.
A fantastic read during a Presidential cycle.
April 14, 2016
sort of interesting take on what he thinks wins/loses presidential campaigns, how they differ for challengers vs. incumbents vs. same-party successors (e.g., George HW Bush after Reagan, Al Gore after Bill Clinton). Considerable detail on Hillary Clinton/Obama nomination fight in '08, Gore/Bush general election [but not the aftermath, as I guess that wasn't relevant to his main focus, and Bush reelection defeat by Bill Clinton in 92].
not very gossip-oriented -- he covered B. Clinton/G. Flowers affair revelation and Gary Hart "monkey business" incident in about a paragraph each.
fairly balanced, humane take on successful and unsuccessful candidates, placing a lot of stress on the competence of their teams as a factor in success.
He's a professor of "political science", a term that has always puzzled me as a name for Government departments in universities. As laid out in this book anyway, it doesn't seem the least bit scientific. More like good, intelligent, thorough journalism. But he never extracts from any of these case studies a testable empirical claim and then subjects it to analysis -- just describes and comments on specific occurrences, quotes people like James Carville or George Stephanopoulos or Karl Rove saying that something or other was key to one election, and says that is probably true in general.
not very gossip-oriented -- he covered B. Clinton/G. Flowers affair revelation and Gary Hart "monkey business" incident in about a paragraph each.
fairly balanced, humane take on successful and unsuccessful candidates, placing a lot of stress on the competence of their teams as a factor in success.
He's a professor of "political science", a term that has always puzzled me as a name for Government departments in universities. As laid out in this book anyway, it doesn't seem the least bit scientific. More like good, intelligent, thorough journalism. But he never extracts from any of these case studies a testable empirical claim and then subjects it to analysis -- just describes and comments on specific occurrences, quotes people like James Carville or George Stephanopoulos or Karl Rove saying that something or other was key to one election, and says that is probably true in general.
May 9, 2012
The subtitle is "What it takes to win - and hold - the White House," but this incisive book is even more interesting when it analyzes how candidates and campaigns lose elections that they are supposed to win. Popkin, a political science professor at UC San Diego, has often waded into the arena to advise Democratic presidential candidates, but his analysis here is nonpartisan: he has lots of good things to say about the skills of Republican political professionals and lots of negative comments on Democratic losers such as Dukakis, Carter, and Gore.
September 7, 2012
For someone who knows little and cares little about the political process, this book was really interesting. The author explains the components that contribute to a Presidential candidate winning the election and a place in the White House. The main components--a good political team, delegation, and knowing and acknowledging what's working and what's not working. The author used a TON of documents and sources. I'm glad that I chose to read this book for a book club.
July 29, 2015
Professor Popkin was one of my favorite professors at UCSD, and his book was one of the best, most interesting political science books I've read. I actually enjoyed this, and that's saying a lot, as most political books bore me (specifically the poli sci textbooks I'm usually assigned). I looked forward to reading this each week. I especially loved how un-biased it was and how it examined members of both parties. So very interesting, and I'll be reading this again in the near future!
June 1, 2012
A fascinating look a presidents and those who wanted to be president. This should be required reading for all voters. It helps to unwind the rhetoric and also to appreciate the complexity of a presidential campaign. Great writing style and great fun to read.
June 19, 2013
A very engaging book on politics by an author who actually knows something about elections, might be focused in presidential campaigns, but several concepts and strategies are universal. Terrific read for political junkies.
June 29, 2012
Read the first few chapters and the chapter on the 2008 primary battle between Obama and Hillary Clinton. The rest is not n
early as interesting.
early as interesting.
July 5, 2012
Meanders a bit. Largely case studies/war stories and offers insights into campaign organization
September 16, 2012
Anecdotes and stories are excellent but the political science and frameworks are painfully dull. Best part is the Obama-Hilary election chapter.
Displaying 1 - 15 of 15 reviews