Deterrence: Its Past and Future?Papers Presented at Hoover Institution, November 2010 (Hoover Institution Press Publication)

by George P. Shultz

Drawn from the third in a series of conferences at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University on the nuclear legacy of the cold war, this report examines the importance of deterrence, from its critical function in the cold war to its current role. Although deterrence will not disappear, current and future threats to international security will present relatively fewer situations in which nuclear weapons will play the dominant role they did during the cold war.The authors highlight the ways in which deterrence has been shaped by surrounding conditions and circumstances. They look at the prospective reliability of deterrence as a tool of statecraft in the emerging international environment. And they examine the challenges of “weaponless deterrence”: developing approaches to nuclear deterrence that rely not on the actua, but rather on the potential existence of nuclear weapons. In addition, they look at the ongoing debates over “de-alerting” (slowing down the capability for immediate launch and rapid nuclear escalation), the role of arms control, and the practical considerations related to verification and compliance.

Hardcover

First published August 1, 2011

About the author

American economist, statesman, and businessman. He served in various positions under three different Republican presidents, including Secretary of State, Treasury and Labor, as well as Director of the Office of Management and Budget.
He graduated from Princeton University before serving in the United States Marine Corps during World War II. After the war, Shultz earned a PhD in industrial economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). He taught at MIT from 1948 to 1957, taking a leave of absence to take a position on President Dwight D. Eisenhower's Council of Economic Advisers. After serving as dean of the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business, he accepted President Richard Nixon's appointment to the position of United States Secretary of Labor. In that position, he imposed the Philadelphia Plan on construction contractors that refused to accept black members, marking the first use of racial quotas by the federal government. In 1970, he became the first Director of the Office of Management and Budget, and he served in that position until his appointment as United States Secretary of the Treasury in 1972. Shultz supported the Nixon shock, which sought to revive the ailing economy in part by abolishing the gold standard. He also presided over the end of the Bretton Woods system.
Schultz left the Nixon administration in 1974 to become an executive with Bechtel. After becoming president and director of that company, he accepted President Ronald Reagan's offer to serve as the United States Secretary of State. He held that office from 1982 to 1989. Shultz pushed for Reagan to establish relations with Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev, which led to a thaw between the United States and the Soviet Union. He opposed the U.S. aid to the Sandinistas which led to the Iran–Contra affair.
Shultz retired from public office in 1989 but remained active in the business and political world. He is a member of the Hoover Institution, the Institute for International Economics, the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, and other groups.