Simulation and Risk Analysis

by James R. Evans, David Louis Olson

Soundly structured and highly practical, this informative guide introduces users to the concepts, methodologies, and applications of simulation in business, using easy-to-apply Microsoft Excel spreadsheets as the principal means to illustrate simulation modeling concepts, computational issues, and analysis of results. Uses spreadsheets throughout to convey quantitative methodologies in a language readers can most easily understand, and allows them to address the elementary concepts of both risk analysis and systems simulation approaches in a common framework. Fully covers all basic concepts of simulation (i.e., the nature of simulation models, systems (time/event driven) simulation, techniques for implementing simple simulation models on Excel spreadsheets, statistical concepts and methods important in simulation analysis, and more. Offers an in-depth study of risk analysis using the Excel add-in Crystal Ball as a practical method for Monte Carlo simulation. Presents a detailed analysis of systems simulation including discussions on the fundamentals of simulating inventory and queueing systems and event-driven simulation. Provides SkillBuilder exercises for practicing and developing spreadsheet and software applications skills, as well as Simulation in Practice cases and numerous examples and illustrations of simulation models throughout. For business administrators, industrial engineers, and related professionals who want to learn about simulation and risk analysis.

380 pages, Paperback

First published January 1, 1998

About the author

Dr. James Evans is licensed in clinical and school psychology. Following graduation with a bachelor's degree in education, and a tour of duty in the U.S. Army, he taught in a public high school. Later he earned a master's degree in psychology. After working for three years at a state hospital and a county mental health center, he attended Peabody College of Vanderbilt University where he received a Ph.D. degree in psychology. He was on the faculty of the Psychology Department at the University of South Carolina for thirty years, and is retired from that position. He has completed postdoctoral work in neuropsychology at the University of California at San Francisco, the University of Georgia and the Medical College of Georgia. For over thirty years he also has maintained a successful private practice involving working with children and adults in hospital, school, prison, and private office settings. He has expertise in psychological, neuropsychological and psychoeducational assessment, as well as years of experience in psychotherapy and neurotherapy.. He is the author of thirty-five journal articles and five book chapters, and editor or co-editor of eight psychology-related books, including Rhythm in Psychological, Linguistic and Musical Processes, published in 1986. Presently he is self-employed as a psychologist at the Sterlingworth Center in Greenville, SC.