The Party's Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies

by Richard Heinberg

The world is about to run out of cheap oil and change dramatically. Within the next few years, global production will peak. Thereafter, even if industrial societies begin to switch to alternative energy sources, they will have less net energy each year to do all the work essential to the survival of complex societies. We are entering a new era, as different from the industrial era as the latter was from medieval times. In The Party’s Over , Richard Heinberg places this momentous transition in historical context, showing how industrialism arose from the harnessing of fossil fuels, how competition to control access to oil shaped the geopolitics of the twentieth century and how contention for dwindling energy resources in the twenty-first century will lead to resource wars in the Middle East, Central Asia and South America. He describes the likely impacts of oil depletion and all of the energy alternatives. Predicting chaos unless the United States—the world’s foremost oil consumer—is willing to join with other countries to implement a global program of resource conservation and sharing, he also recommends a “managed collapse” that might make way for a slower-paced, low-energy, sustainable society in the future. More readable than other accounts of this issue, with fuller discussion of the context, social implications and recommendations for personal, community, national and global action, Heinberg’s updated book is a riveting wake-up call for human-kind as the oil era winds down, and a critical tool for understanding and influencing current US foreign policy. Richard Heinberg , from Santa Rosa, California, has been writing about energy resources issues and the dynamics of cultural change for many years. A member of the core faculty at New College of California, he is an award-winning author of three previous books. His Museletter was nominated for the Best Alternative Newsletter award by Utne in 1993.

Genres: Nonfiction, Politics, Peak Oil, Science, Environment, Economics, Sustainability

288 pages, Paperback

First published April 1, 2003

About the author

Richard William Heinberg is an American journalist and educator who has written extensively on energy, economic, and ecological issues, including oil depletion. He is the author of 13 books, and presently serves as the senior fellow at the Post Carbon Institute.

Reviews

[Aaron · Rating 5 out of 5]

As a daily newspaper journalist I once attempted to research and write a Front Page story detailing the problems associated with Peak Oil. It was part of my intellectual growth, I suppose, in that I was awakening to energy issues and beginning to incorporate them into my knowledge of urban planning and transportation issues.
I remember working my ass off to get that story - to localize and regionalize what amounted to a global issue - and working with the photographer to illustrate it. I remember getting up at the ungodly hour of 3 a.m. just so we could ride a shuttle van with a person I found who decided to jettison her car because of high gas prices and who naturally breathed real life into my story. Anyway, the photographer and I were both excited about the story, about getting at something big. To this day, the photographer, Dean Koepfler, remembers it. I actually spoke to him during a social occasion last year, and our attempt in 2005 to raise the public's consciousness of Peak Oil was one of the first things he mentioned to me as we shared war stories from the newsroom.
"You were right," Dean said, almost wistfully. Maybe I was. The Front Page story never ran. It got junked into a sidebar and tucked inside where it played second (third? fourth?) fiddle to a story about alternative fuels.
The story behind why it got junked is long and not worth going into right now. But after reading "The Party's Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies" by Richard Heinberg, I can't stop thinking about my attempt at what Heinberg has more comprehensively accomplished: showing why we better get serious about rescaling our lives in light of the end of the cheap oil age.
I can't stop thinking about the fact that if people honestly processed what Heinberg has accomplished with this book, they would have to think differently and act differently and understand just how energy (particularly oil and natural gas) undergird everything we do, and how that undergirding is breaking apart.
I can't stop feeling sad about how my story never saw the light of day - isn't that what journalists and newspapers are supposed to do? Tell people something they don't know, preferably something important?
Heinberg even takes a swipe at mainstream newspapers for failing to tell people the broader story about oil and energy when they had one of the best opportunities to do so: when gas prices were skyrocketing earlier this decade. I feel like calling him up and telling him I tried.
It is a strange feeling to read a really good book that marshals scads of evidence and fact and science to blow up people's misconceptions about how the world really works and then think to yourself: How many people know about this book, how many people are going to read it, how many people are going to understand that Heinberg isn't out to depress them but to motivate them to act in the face of physics and reality and the laws of thermodynamics?
Heinberg's book is the most comprehensive - and technically, albeit densely, precise - rundown of our energy predicament I've ever read, covering everything from geopolitics and photovoltaic cells to oil and natural gas depletion. Everything you ever wanted to know about energy and how it supports our modern industrial life is right here. And Heinberg lays out a number of things we can do to deal with the coming oil crash.
The United States has something like 5 percent of the world's population and uses a quarter of its natural resources. We consume the most oil. We support client states that oppress their indigenous populations so that we can enjoy the spoils of their resources. In our relationship with Saudi Arabia, we have one of the nastiest geopolitical foreign policy arrangements in the history of the planet. And, as this telling excerpt shows, we've been waging wars and implementing policies to secure the energy to maintain our wealth and hegemony for a long time:
"The U.S. policy of maintaining resource dominance is not new. Shortly after World War II, a brutally frank State Department Policy Planning Study authored by George F. Kennan, the American Ambassador to Moscow, noted:
'We have 50 percent of the world's wealth, but only 6.3 percent of its population. In this situation, our real job in the coming period is to devise a pattern of relationships which permit us to maintain this position of disparity. To do so, we have to dispense with all sentimentality ... we should cease thinking about human rights, the raising of living standards and democratisation.'"
Incredible, isn't it? Are people paying attention to this? I mean, enough people to actually bring about significant change? Oh, I forgot. They're busy watching "Gossip Girl."
Well, as the title of Heinberg's book starkly puts it, the party's over. OIl is a finite resource. So is natural gas. And we're on the downslope of both. Coal is a poor substitute, and, when used, poisons the earth. Nuclear, while arguably better for the planet, is scary and just too costly to make happen on the scale we'd need to continue civilization as we know it. Wind power will help, but can't be scaled to the present footprint of human civilization. Solar will help. But, as with wind power, scalability is extremely problematic. From Heinberg's point of view - and he backs it with plenty of evidence - our modern industrial society is a 100-year anomaly of sorts that was enabled by cheap, abundant oil, and, by extracting it and not caring about the consequences, we overshot our population and had a lot of fun and manufactured a lot of plastic and fertilized the fuck out of our soils and caused ecological damage and now here we are, facing the cliff, the downside of Hubbert's Peak, and we're still willing to listen to any politician who'll tell us, hey folks, it's OK, you can keep the party going.
So, what do we do?
Heinberg lays out a comprehensive set of actions, local, regional and global, toward sustainability. He covers everything from farming and transportation to finance and foreign policy. Make no mistake, though, he believes there isn't enough oil or natural gas to sustain the current population or physical makeup of civilization. As a result, population will have to come down, communities will have to power down and make other living arrangements, and, to make this transition bearable, we need to get to work on it quickly. Technology isn't going to save us. Getting better at pumping more oil out of the ground isn't going to save us. And remember: it takes energy to produce energy. If we want to rescale and prepare for renewable sources of energy (i.e., wind, solar), Heinberg argues, then we should start investing our current energy reserves into the project of building wind turbines and solar communities. Instead, Heinberg worries, we'll probably just continue throwing it at the fossil-fuel party whose biggest guests include our gas-guzzling National Automobile Fleet and our Middle Eastern client states who'd love to give us more oil but would like a nice big shipment of guns with which to properly oppress their civilian population.
What Heinberg envisions is people embracing egalitarian living arrangements, and local farming and economies. What this will require is detoxification from consumerism and TV watching and the belief that you can get something for nothing. Also, it would help if people would understand that money isn't money; money is simply a medium of exchange to simplify the process of trading one thing for another, so that you don't have to carry around beaver pelts and trade them for large boulders. Money is petrodollars. Money is energy. Without energy, money is meaningless.
When I think about Heinberg's book, I still think about my ill-fated attempt at researching and writing a big piece about Peak Oil. My story never saw the light of day. But, as Heinberg's updated and expanded book points out, the issue of Peak Oil increasingly is finding its way into the mainstream.
That's good.
Then again, the mainstream (whether it's mainstream media, thought, culture, etc.) seems to have a way of dismissing people like Heinberg and their books. I've seen it before. Hell, I've experienced it before.
I suppose the best way to think about Peak Oil (and Peak Natural Gas, etc.) is in a local way. That is, what can we do where we live? In my journalism days, at least I tried. At least I tried. Now, with the fundamental problem of the end of the cheap oil age, I'm thinking about what I should do to prepare for the future. Thankfully, there is more than one answer to that question.

[Claire Corbett · Rating 5 out of 5]

This book will ruin your life. You will never feel confident or sanguine about the future again. But you must read it. Take the blue pill - or is it the red? In any case, best to wake up but it's a harsh awakening. You can never go back.

[Aron · Rating 5 out of 5]

This book was 5 stars the whole way through. Whether you believe the geologists and petroleum industry engineers (and Heinberg, as well as many other authors) that claim that we're pretty much hitting 'peak oil' right now or not, the fact remains that we will reach it some day, and when that day comes we will have to deal with the consequences. Heinberg's story here is that we've been gorging on essentially free energy and have come to expect it will remain so. The scariest example of this is the current economy - in a finite world, we cannot reasonably expect unlimited growth. It isn't physically possible. He argues that this mentality is dangerous and deters society from taking steps towards more sustainable lifestyles.

The book begins by analyzing energy in naturally occurring ecosystems, and explains how eventually humans were able to offset the balance to their extreme advantage and subsequent proliferation. A brief tour through relatively modern history follows, with a focus on energy use - from employing animals to assist in our labors, to burning coal, refining petroleum, generating electricity, etc. He discusses Hubbert's Peak as well as other better-informed attempts to pinpoint when exactly oil production will peak. If I remember correctly, the most optimistic of these was 2020. He then considers all known energy sources and their potential to replace oil once it becomes too expensive. To put it lightly, his view is not optimistic. While it's true that from a strictly energy-based standpoint, renewable sources have vast potential in the future, none of these technologies can cover all the applications that we currently use petroleum for.

Next, Heinberg goes on to discuss what he believes the consequences of this reduction in oil availability will be, from the economy and transportation, to food and health, to politics and war. He also offers suggestions for how the average person can prepare for this future unstable world. The suggestions ranged from fantastic to simply curious, but none were worthless in my opinion. Though I haven't checked them out yet, he also includes lists of web-based resources that look promising. That was a very nice touch.

Highly recommended. It was even a quick read (<300 well-written pages). I'll be checking out more of Heinberg's work in the future.

[zed · Rating 5 out of 5]

A must read.

[missy jean · Rating 5 out of 5]

An excellent assessment of the science behind Peak Oil, which places our petro-reliant society into its globopolitical context (wherein we use our military industrial complex as a mechanism for maintaining oil hegemony) and sounds a clear warning that we are running out of time (if we haven't already) to build the infrastructure we will need to transition smoothly out of a fossil fuel-based economy when it becomes too expensive to maintain. It's interesting and terrifying to consider just how brief the industrial period of the world could end up being: our lifestyle is just a blip on the screen, and we've managed to live so indulgently, so exploitatively, that future generations won't be able to access sufficient natural resources to energize the type of lifestyle that seems normal to modern Americans.

[Dennis Littrell · Rating 5 out of 5]

As the oil patch runs dry

This is one of the best books on peak oil and the consequences to come that I have read. Heinberg goes into considerable detail not only delineating the rise of industrial societies based on fossil fuel riches (the "treasure found in the basement," is how he phrases it), but on what is going to happen when the oil is gone. A couple of other good books are Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert's Peak (2005) by Kenneth S. Deffeyes and The Long Emergency: Surviving the Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-First Century (2005) by James Howard Kunstler. Kunstler in particular is in close agreement with Heinberg. For a different point of view--and an amazingly pollyannaish one in my opinion--see The Bottomless Well: The Twilight of Fuel, the Virtue of Waste, and Why We Will Never Run Out of Energy (2005) by Peter W. Huber and Mark P. Mills.

When the party animals go out at night they think not of the morrow or of the headache to come. This is Heinberg's analogy except the consequences of the binge will be quite a bit worse than a headache. Note well the subtitle: "the Fate of Industrial Societies."

Heinberg hints at some possible political consequences as the oil patch begins to run dry. He notes that young people "will see evidence of the extravagant party their elders have thrown, while for themselves there will be only dregs left over." (p. 209) They may take a sharp turn to the left (as historically happens during times of stress or deprivation), and "in wealthier countries (such as the US) may be branded as traitors to the cause of maintaining their nation's unequal control of global resources." (p. 207) I believe there is already evidence of this as Bush tries to discredit his critics.

But can it really happen that industrial society will collapse when the oil is gone? Can it really be the case that there will be horrific wars over the remaining oil in the ground? Is it true that there is no substitute for the black gold, no energy source that comes close to replacing it?

These are questions that Heinberg addresses and addresses well. His conclusions are largely pessimistic, but I am not sure he is right. The slide down from Hubbert's peak may be gradual and give us time to make the switch from oil to something else. But what might that something else be? Heinberg, as other authors have done, goes through the list of possible alternatives--coal, natural gas, hydrogen, nuclear, renewables like wind, solar and biomass, etc., and comes to the dreary conclusion that economically-speaking, nothing can come close to replacing oil.

One of the chilling ideas he expresses is that the current "Industrial Age" or "Petroleum Era," now little more than two centuries old, is really just an "Industrial Bubble"; and as soon as the cheap energy is gone, humankind will revert to a pre-industrial way of life. Without the treasure trove of oil and all that it provides--not just fuel, but plastics and fertilizers, paved roads, and a myriad of other products--the planet will no longer be able to support the present population of six billion plus. Heinberg believes that a sustainable human population without oil will be closer to two billion.

The least that will happen is that we will undergo a reduction in our standard of living based on the fact that whatever replaces oil will be more expensive. Conservation on a level currently unthinkable will also be required. We can all kiss our SUVs goodbye, and ask ourselves the really relevant question: how do you spell b-i-c-y-c-l-e?

The point I want to make is that we can spell bicycle, and indeed it is not necessarily true that we clever humans are going to stand by and let our societies collapse and inflict a lot of pain on ourselves. My belief is that the transition to a planet on which there are fewer people living in a less energy-intensive way than is currently the case, especially in the United States, can be relatively painless and actually something to look forward to. Heinberg makes a similar point about the human value of returning to a more agrarian, less competitive way of life. But a smooth transition will require a complete re-education of society, especially of those in positions of power, corporate heads and government leaders. A public works project greater than any the world has ever seen will be required. Conservation and the use of a variety of energy sources will be required. Careful planning and cooperation will be necessary. Finally, we who have been taught to conspicuously consume will have to change our ways. Heinberg observes that "people currently have to be coaxed and cajoled from cradle to grave by expensive advertising to consume... If the message of this incessant propaganda stream were simply reversed, people could probably be persuaded to happily make do with less." (p. 182)

Right now our government is intent on securing access to what remains of the world's oil instead of working toward the inevitable time of no oil. This short-sightedness is dangerous and if we don't elect leaders who will address the problem and work toward solutions, the dire consequences spun out by Heinberg, Kunstler and others will surely come to pass. Every day that goes by with us mired in this Neanderthal mind-set increases the probability of famine, war, pestilence and brutal poverty for our children and grandchildren. If we don't act now, our legacy may very well be a return to something resembling the Stone Age.

By the way, be sure to get this, the 2nd Edition of "The Party's Over" from 2005, and not the first edition from 2003. Heinberg has revised and updated the book to take into account the invasion of Iraq and other recent developments.

--Dennis Littrell, author of “The World Is Not as We Think It Is”

[B J · Rating 5 out of 5]

The Party's Over is a cogent and enlightening wake-up call to responsible action regarding dwindling energy resources and how we use those resources. In a smooth-flowing narrative, author Heinberg recounts events that were precursors to today's extravagant energy consumption. The facts are laid out in a skillfully-told journalistic style that is the who-what-when-where-how-why of the current state of affairs and where we are inevitably headed.

Concise and easy to read, this book is an outstanding refresher of recent headlines and current events, as well as a rich synopsis of history. It provides a dense jumping-off point for further research and allows the reader to realize on his/her own the very urgent need for change on a global scale.

[Lesley · Rating 5 out of 5]

Wow. The only negative thing I have to say about this book is that there is too much information to properly absorb! It really does a good job of explaining all the reasons that our current oil-based lifestyles are not sustainable. And not in any vague way. He lists all the relevant facts and processes (geological, political, economic, etc.) that give the reader insight into what the problem really is and how the current proposed solutions aren't going to be the answer. It's kind of scary but enlightening. Everybody should have to read this. Maybe then there would be hope! This book is now a few years old, would love to read a follow-up if there is one.

[Keith Akers · Rating 5 out of 5]

This is the best general introduction to the subject of "peak oil" and one of the first to break this subject to a general audience. Readers of TheOilDrum.com won't find anything in this they don't already know, but for newbies it's great.

[Sophia · Rating 2 out of 5]

Review of “The Party's Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies”

"The analysis needed today must take into account ecological principles, energy-resource constraints, population pressure, and the historical dynamics of complex societies."
-Theodore John Kaczynski, Anti-Tech Revolution: Why and How, pages 208-209.

This book hasn't aged well. Many people will remember the time when "peak oil" was a thing. It had its hay-day in the first decade of the 21st century: a group of scholars, amateur researchers and writers converged in a "movement" over their belief that industrial society was nearing collapse or sharp decline because of depleting oil (or access to oil), to which industrial society was overwhelmingly and inexorably dependent. Industrial society was running head-on into limits they told everyone-specifically ecological and technological limits (the amount of remaining geologic oil, and the ability to efficiently access that oil), and it would soon begin its death throes as all aspects of the industrial system that were dependent on cheap and abundant fossil fuel energy would begin to shut down; the cost/benefit ratio of oil extraction would no longer make it worth the effort. However, the "movement" has died out: Peak oilists still exist, but they're hard pressed to give interviews. Most of the "institutes" and organizations they founded have floundered or else cease to exist; many of them won't comment on the matter at all. Many have shifted focus to environmental damage and ecological limits in general. Others still cling to the notion, but the decisive moment is shifted further out into the future: they'll still tell you it's near; pushed off into some vague future. So, what happened? In short: technology continued to advance. Namely, the peak oilists based their notions on a faulty understanding of technology and its inter-relation with society at large. They did this partly out of naïveté about the fundamental nature of the techno-industrial system, and partly due to unconscious desires—born of legitimate ecological concerns over the destruction of wild Nature—that the industrial system should soon collapse.

Both the discovery and the rate of extraction of oil are greatly dependent on technology. Technology is the independent variable. A single quote illustrates how Heinberg overlooks this fact:

"As we have to drill deeper to find oil, and as we have to move into more difficult and expensive areas in which to operate, the ratio of [energy] profit to energy expended declines."
-Page 127

This outlook is typical of peak oilists. It's their most significant commonality:

"Technology cannot change the geology of the reservoir, but technology (in particular horizontal drilling) can help to produce faster, but no more... "
-Jean Laherrere, as quoted by Michael Lynch, "What Ever Happened to Peak Oil?" Forbes Magazine, June 29, 2018.

This perspective seriously overlooks the way in which technology changes the efficiency of energy extraction through time, and the way energy demand changes along with increased technological efficiency in general. Demand evolves due to changes in the efficiency of the industrial system's use of this energy. This changing demand due to changing efficiency in oil use corresponds with changing efficiency in oil extraction—the technological system is an integrated whole and the systems that allow for more efficient use are interconnected with the systems that allow for more efficient expansion. The net result is that the total price to profit ratio of oil extraction can more or less remain the same provided that the technological system is able to continually advance in efficiency. In this respect, while it may certainly run hard up against limits that threaten its expansion into, and transformation of, the natural world (and indeed it is currently experiencing serious social and environmental problems threatening serious destabilization), there is no reason to believe it will hit serious barriers as abruptly as the peak oilists believe.

Read the rest of this review at Wilderness Front

[Paula · Rating 4 out of 5]

One of the most important revelations in the last century is that we have reached the peak of oil supply, and it is all downhill from here. What does that mean, and what are the implications of this startling realization to civilization as we know it? That is the focus of this phenomenal study. Heinberg obviously tries to be level headed, and fair to all viewpoints. I've read books from both sides of the spectrum, from the doomsayers to the believers in techno-miracles. Heinberg is somewhere in between, admitting that life will have to change in dramatic ways, but holding out hope for saving some of the best of what we have. You will find it depressing, but it is important to make changes now if we are to save anything. Take the red pill, and take control of your future.

[Dameon Launert · Rating 5 out of 5]

I bought this book around 2008 but it sat unread in my growing library for 15 years. During that time, I slowly learned about the problems and solutions described in the book. I wish I had read much sooner.

The book is information dense, but very accessible and easy to read. There are many issues related to energy and Heinberg does an excellent job balancing both the breadth and depth of the topic.

I hope we acknowledge the severity of the problems facing us and implement bottom-up solutions, some of which were outlined in the book.

[Klejton · Rating 3 out of 5]

Didn’t age particularly well. The predicted peak oil date didn’t come in 2010 and is now thought to arrive anywhere from 2028-2050. Even Hubbert’s correct prediction of US peak oil seems to have lost some appeal especially since in 2018 the USA produced more oil than it did at its supposed peak.

However, it does a pretty good job of explaining how truly f*cked we are once that does eventually happen and how un-practical replacements to oil really are. Responds well to that annoying moron Lomborg and soft denialism.

[Bryce · Rating 3 out of 5]

With all of the concern about global warming and peak oil, it has been surprisingly difficult for me to find balanced reading material to sort it all out. Richard Heinberg's manifesto here on peak oil and portents of societal collapse is certainly not attempting balance, but he nonetheless presents a decent review of the "bear case" for the fate of humanity in the next century. As I am thinking about this review, I realize I have read so much on this topic that it will be easier to try to consolidate what I have learned from reading not only this book, but a host of other papers and essays on economic growth, population growth, and resource constraints.

The extraordinarily high and sustained rate of productivity increases since the dawn of the industrial age has made it possible for the human population to rise at an unprecedented rate. Prior to the neolithic revolution 8,000 years ago, the annual rate of human population increase might have been something like 0.01-0.05%. At a rate of 0.05% annual population growth, the population would double every 1,500 years. From the beginning of cereal cultivation to roughly 1800 the annual population growth increased to about 0.10% (double the rate of increase in the hunter/gatherer eras). At a rate of 0.10% annual population increase, the population would double every 750 years, give or take.

Since the beginning of the industrial revolution, the annual rate of population increase has been 1.5-2%. This has resulted in population doublings every 50 years over the past two centuries, and is an incredibly fast rate of population growth compared to anything in prior human history. This pace of population growth is only possible because productivity has grown even faster, which is necessary to be able to feed all these new inhabitants. But it's not just food that has been in demand by many of these new inhabitants. We want houses and cars and gizmos, all energy and resource intensive to produce.

Nobel economist Robert Solow pioneered a model of economic growth that included inputs of labor, resources, and capital, and he believed the latter was by far the most important for driving productivity growth. One of his famous quotations: "If it is very easy to substitute other factors for natural resources, then there is, in principle, no problem. The world can, in effect, get along without natural resources."

The idea behind this theory is that if natural resource prices increase because of high demand or insufficient supply, those high prices will encourage development of substitutions to soak up the money otherwise being paid to acquire the expensive resources.

Unfortunately, there is little indication that there is anything close to a viable substitute for hydrocarbon fuels for running our modern economies. Vaclav Smil's many papers on this topic have made it clear to me how long it took for the construction of the hydrocarbon energy infrastructure, and how deeply embedded that infrastructure is within our economies. Moreover, as energy and materials prices have risen dramatically since the early 2000s, and concerns over global warming have mounted, development and implementation of substitutes have moved frustratingly slow. And, at least over shorter time frames, fast increases in energy and materials prices can lead to a "supply shock" or "demand destruction" — which, rather than encouraging substitutions, instead contribute to a slowdown of economic growth and withdrawal of investment capital from risky projects.

There is good news and bad news. The good news is that populations that have reached high levels of development and education have seen dramatically lower birthrates (below replacement rates in Japan and parts of Europe). This suggests that as the world continues to develop, advances in material wealth and education will likely see the end of exponential population growth, and potentially the beginning of a population decline in the second half of the century (unless resource constraints force a "collapse" sooner).

The bad news is that economic development demands a very high level of resource use per capita, the increase in prices of resources over the past decade suggests that resources are becoming scarcer relative to their demand, and in a finite world there is no substitute for food or resources in general, even if it is possible to substitute one type of resource for another. In addition to that, even if resources were unlimited, the pace of extraction is not unlimited. This latter point is important to remember whenever we hear about supply of "unconventional oil" like tar sands, which may be available in abundance, but is both resource and time intensive to mine and refine at scale.

Finally, there is the issue of substantial lags. One lag is the time between the emission of carbon dioxide and its contribution to heating the earth. Another lag is the time between economic growth, education, and decline in birth rates. Thus, we will see human population and resource demand continuing to increase exponentially for at least the next 30-40 years, provided resource supply can keep up with demand, and that may be 30-40 years too late to prevent catastrophic global warming in the 50 years that follow.

[Nicole · Rating 5 out of 5]

How can you not read this book?! Still applicable after the year of publication... energy sources take a long time to find and use up. And money means hanging onto the status quo way after it's useful to society.

[Logan Streondj · Rating 5 out of 5]

An excellent in depth look at energy issues and possible solutions. Certainly there was much more hope in the early 2000's when this was written. But yeah still knew there would need to be energy contraction.

Worth archiving as it explains it all so well.

[Kim Zinkowski · Rating 3 out of 5]

About running out of fossil fuels....

[Srikanth · Rating 3 out of 5]

Trust me, nothing earth shattering. You can google more interesting article.

[Sohel Rana]

informative......not bad

[MR. S. BEATTIE · Rating 4 out of 5]

This book could give you nightmares..

[David Lankshear · Rating 3 out of 5]

A scary book about our addiction to oil, but overly pessimistic as to how technology might replace it.

[Othman · Rating 4 out of 5]

enlightening!

[Aitzol · Rating 4 out of 5]

Terminado el 2010-02-14

[Eric · Rating 5 out of 5]

I really enjoyed this thought provoking book. I highly recommend this book. Heinberg says that peak oil will occur between 2006-2016 but he leans towards earlier. Its impossible to figure out when exactly it will/has hit because lots of countries hide how much accessible oil they really have (like Saudi Arabia). He says that we could pass peak oil without knowing it but that we will be able to look back and say "there it was." A lot of the signs that he mentions will occur around peak oil are here already. I'm not sure if I'm reading into it too much but the struggling global economy, accompanied by a financial crisis, with no end in sight is fairly interesting to think about considering he wrote this book before the American melt down. We have not prepared adequately with renewable energy so we are heading for a future with far less energy. Its just a question of how messy the let down will be. READ THIS BOOK! Love to hear what others think of it.

At the start of each chapter he had quotes from various people that were quite interesting, here's a sampling.

Forests to precede civilizations, deserts to follow.
-Francois Rene Chateaubriand (ca. 1840)

My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet airplane. His son will ride a camel.
-Saudi saying

Under the rule of the "free market" ideology, we have gone through two decades of an energy crisis without an effective energy policy... We have no adequate policy for the development or use of other, less harmful forms of energy. We have no adequate system of public transportation.
-Wendell Berry (1992)

Anyone who believes exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist.
-Kenneth Boulding (ca. 1980)

Sooner or later, we sit down to a banquet of consequences.
-Robert Louis Stevenson (ca. 1885)

[Nathaniel · Rating 3 out of 5]

An interesting and disheartening premise, but Heinberg seems to go too far. The thrust of this book is the imminence of peak oil and the profound effects it will have on world society. According to Heinberg, world markets and industries will be unable to cope with the looming spike in oil prices (you think it's bad now; wait for $200-300/barrel instead of just $75), causing a disintegration of modern society. Globalization will halt, trade will collapse, and basic human needs will be impossible to meet. Heinberg goes so far as to suggest that the world population will likely drop to as low as 2 billion.

I don't doubt that peak oil is going to have profound effects on society, but I do doubt that the effects will be this drastic. Human ingenuity will, despite Heinberg's pessimism, alleviate some of the problems (though we're going to have to do much better than ethanol from corn). Even so, taking some of Heinberg's advice can't hurt--learning basic skills like gardening, simple car repair, and home building would be wise. Of course, Heinberg conveniently forgets to mention perhaps the most important skill in a collapsing society, namely, marksmanship, useful for defense from marauding thugs and for securing food for the table, but that's not unexpected.

Overall, thought provoking and worth reading, but I'm not convinced by his doomsday analysis.

[Mark · Rating 3 out of 5]

Indeed, the party is coming to an end. At some point the production of easily attainable crude oil will peak and the forces of supply/demand will kick in with a vengeance. While the exact date won’t be known until we are looking at it in the rearview mirror, most estimates have the peak occurring sometime in the next decade. What effect such an event will have on life is hard to tell but suffice it to say that massive societal upheaval isn’t out of the question. As Heinberg points out, we are far enough behind the game with our implementation of renewable energy sources that no matter what we do, we’re going to have an awkward period ahead of us. Note of interest: Nuclear energy is not an infinite source. When a full EROEI (energy returned on energy invested) analysis is done, nuclear is extremely inefficient. Also, plutonium exists in finite amounts and must be mined from the earth – a process that inherently leads to an environmental mess. The solution to the upcoming woes? Self-sufficiency is the key. Ranking first among the list of things to do is learning how to grow our own food. Nothing makes a crisis worse more quickly than rapidly declining food sources…

[Stephen]

I will not go into my personal feelings about the book - other than to say I agree 100% with the author. His premise portrays complex industrial societies as found in North America/Europe/Pacific Rim will cease to exist as complex societies all because of geology, physics and chemistry. We are approaching Peak Oil, or have, and the energy available in alternative sources is insufficient to continue the economic growth paradigm of industrialism. The disturbing thing is the development of alternative renewable sources has not occurred in a time frame that would assure a painless transition. The political leadership is absent except for the approach, as in America, that we go to war to assure our continued access to "cheap energy." So we now control foreign sources of oil, but because of Peak Oil, what is available to tap becomes harder to reach, and hence more expensive. Renewable sources do not have the EROEI (energy invested on energy invested) to the degree that fossil fuels provide. So basically we are between a rock and a hard place.

[Dave Peticolas · Rating 4 out of 5]

Heinberg presents a compelling and rather startling case for the near-term end of the industrial era, caused in large part by the end of cheap supplies of petroleum.

This book is part of the burgeoning movement known as Peak Oil.

Heinberg's argument is generally quite solid, but he may be dismissing some alternative forms of energy, such as nuclear, too quickly. Although it may be too late to avoid the effects of the decline in petroleum production, as those effects begin to sink in the current political and social barriers to the construction of new nuclear plants may begin to fall.

In any case, after reading this book I find myself looking around my surroundings and wondering what will remain and what will have to go when the oil runs out.

[Jeff · Rating 4 out of 5]

This book is definitely worth reading, it has some important information. It also has a few flaws, but they don't detract from what the book has to offer.

Offers a very helpful perspective on the short period of human history that oil has been available, what the availability of abundant and cheap energy has meant, and where we are on the curve of availability (which is moving toward the end). Also, pay attention to natural gas.

The faults are mostly that the book could be construed as alarmist and overstated, although I didn't read it that way. Time will tell about that. Just because Malthus was wrong doesn't mean that this book is way off the mark. Oil is a finite resource, no one disagrees about that. The lack of clarity is all about timing and degree.

[David · Rating 4 out of 5]

Heinberg patiently builds the case that the Industrial Age is a unique interval of human history made possible by the easy availability of cheap oil, and that this interval will soon end. The world's rate of oil production has outstripped the rate of discovery for some time now, and a number of insiders calculate that the production peak is nearly here (if it hasn't passed already). Heinberg clearly and succinctly describes the likely consequences and spells out his recommendations for the bumpy ride ahead.

Those looking for a shorter (and more colorful) introduction to the same ideas should read James Howard Kunstler's We Must Imagine a Future without Cars.