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How Many People Can the Earth Support?
A compelling new analysis of world population issues and what the numbers tell us. . . . With the world population now at 5.7 billion, and increasing by about 90 million per year, we have clearly entered a zone where we can see, and may well encounter, limits on the human carrying capacity of the Earth. In this penetrating analysis of one of the most crucial questions of our time, a leading scholar in the field reviews the history of world population growth and appraises what can be known about its future.
544 pages, Paperback
First published January 1, 1995
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Displaying 1 - 3 of 3 reviews
January 20, 2015
This book is a dense tome. There was so much detail I found it slogging and hard to get through. Nevertheless, the information here is fascinating. A good editor or author that popularizes science could turn this into a lighter and more accessible read.
Here's what I learned from this book.
1. The history of the global population does not follow an exponential, logarithmic or any other consistent progression. (Forget Malthus.)
- The greatest rate of population increase happened in the late 60's / early 70's. It was amazingly larger than most of human history.
- The population rate has dropped slightly since, but is still very large and positive.
2. Population predictions are inaccurate and grow more so farther in the future. The best one can get is a range of possible predictions (high, medium and low).
3. Carrying capacity of the Earth is not a constant. For example, technology and access to new resources can increase capacity.
4. Estimates for the Earth's carrying capacity have a wide range and the variance increases in modern times. No one is really sure what the carrying capacity is.
- Some estimates range from 8 billion to 12 billion. (Current population is 7.5 billion.)
5. We are probably close to the maximum carrying capacity of the Earth.
- "[We] now travel in a zone where a substantial fraction of scholars have estimated upper limits on human population size."
- There is interplay between population, culture, economy and environment. We cannot limit or increase one without affecting the others.
- If we choose maximum population, what will the world be like? Will we enjoy our lives or will we need to live on a subsistence diet? What about access to health care, travel, and the arts?
6. We can choose what type of world we live in.
- "No species has ever been able to multiply without limit. There are two checks... high mortality and a low fertility. Unlike other organisms, man can choose which of these checks shall be applied, but one of them must be."
- "... there is no country in the world in which people are satisfied with having barely enough to eat."
7. Limiting population growth does not require drastic measures.
- Education (especially women and especially reproductive info)
- Access to health care (especially contraceptives)
- Access to clean food and water (no need to have large families if all children are expected to live)
- Incentive people to delay child birth by 5 years
Professor Cohen explains all this in much more detail. If these ideas grab you, I'd suggest reading selected parts of the book that intrigue you.
Here's what I learned from this book.
1. The history of the global population does not follow an exponential, logarithmic or any other consistent progression. (Forget Malthus.)
- The greatest rate of population increase happened in the late 60's / early 70's. It was amazingly larger than most of human history.
- The population rate has dropped slightly since, but is still very large and positive.
2. Population predictions are inaccurate and grow more so farther in the future. The best one can get is a range of possible predictions (high, medium and low).
3. Carrying capacity of the Earth is not a constant. For example, technology and access to new resources can increase capacity.
4. Estimates for the Earth's carrying capacity have a wide range and the variance increases in modern times. No one is really sure what the carrying capacity is.
- Some estimates range from 8 billion to 12 billion. (Current population is 7.5 billion.)
5. We are probably close to the maximum carrying capacity of the Earth.
- "[We] now travel in a zone where a substantial fraction of scholars have estimated upper limits on human population size."
- There is interplay between population, culture, economy and environment. We cannot limit or increase one without affecting the others.
- If we choose maximum population, what will the world be like? Will we enjoy our lives or will we need to live on a subsistence diet? What about access to health care, travel, and the arts?
6. We can choose what type of world we live in.
- "No species has ever been able to multiply without limit. There are two checks... high mortality and a low fertility. Unlike other organisms, man can choose which of these checks shall be applied, but one of them must be."
- "... there is no country in the world in which people are satisfied with having barely enough to eat."
7. Limiting population growth does not require drastic measures.
- Education (especially women and especially reproductive info)
- Access to health care (especially contraceptives)
- Access to clean food and water (no need to have large families if all children are expected to live)
- Incentive people to delay child birth by 5 years
Professor Cohen explains all this in much more detail. If these ideas grab you, I'd suggest reading selected parts of the book that intrigue you.
February 18, 2019
This is probably the densest publication I have ever read. The amount of data thrown into the book makes it very hard to follow the message the author is trying to convey. After reading the book, I'm not sure I'm any closer to answering the question the book is all about. The author could have narrated all this data to tell a more convincing story.
From the book, all I could gather is that the earth's capacity is not defined and will keep changing as newer technology and newer sources of energy become available. The various numbers being floated have a very high degree of variance. Most studies today conclude the capacity somewhere between 8M and 12M.
Predicting the human population is also not exactly accurate, and this further compounds the problem from a supply-demand standpoint
From the book, all I could gather is that the earth's capacity is not defined and will keep changing as newer technology and newer sources of energy become available. The various numbers being floated have a very high degree of variance. Most studies today conclude the capacity somewhere between 8M and 12M.
Predicting the human population is also not exactly accurate, and this further compounds the problem from a supply-demand standpoint
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January 16, 2014Yes
Displaying 1 - 3 of 3 reviews