If you are interested in technical or wave analysis, it should be required reading. It is the definitive work on a scientific wave theory of human experience. Nature's The secret of the universe (Elliott Wave) is such an important, fascinating, even mind-bending work, that it should be read by and and every serious student of the market, be they fundamentalist or technician, dealing in stocks, bonds or commodities.
Ralph Nelson Elliott (28 July 1871 – 15 January 1948) was an American accountant and author whose study of stock market data led him to develop the Wave Principle, a description of the cyclical nature of trader psychology and a form of technical analysis. It identifies trends and reversals in financial markets. These cyclical patterns in price movements are known among practitioners of the method as Elliott waves.
How to see this? No doubt it's interesting that people have noted this golden ratio throughout the ages, and it's interesting to see it parroted in nature. But without understanding why it happens or how it happens, all Elliott can really say is how to measure it.
In fact, apparently, even finding it in the stock market requires some attention, lots of chart and lots of time to decide what ratio to use in order to 'uncover' the hidden features involved. Questions as to what the proper time scale is, or what the correct amounts (inflation adjusted or not) obscure the finding.
Should we understand that this structure is absolute, then we are beholden to find it no matter what. What I wonder is, if the stock market is to be considered mostly random (that is to say too complex to be analysed) should we still be able to trace this sequence out of random numbers, if we fiddle with out metrical tool enough? That we can change the scope of how we see until we find what we are looking for... Without determining an outer bounds for establishing objectivity, this seems like a senseless exercise to simply find a pattern which is both inexplicable and undecipherable. After all, we may know when it goes up, or when it will go down (it's always a matter of time) but for serious investors, there is always the lost opportunity cost of waiting indefinitely for price adjustments which we know to be coming, given all of time.
Elliott was definitely enthusiastic but that didn't translate into something I could hang onto in reading this.
A truly odd little book, written near the end of R. N. Elliott's life, in which he tries to lay out the fundamentals of his wave theory, particularly as it relates to the equity markets. The analysis is neither rigorous nor even particularly coherent at times. But buried in this seemingly random set of hand-drawn charts, aphorisms, and anecdotes, there lies an idea that strikes me as deeply true. If you are a trader or are interested in the rhythms of the economy or even the world, you owe to yourself to familiarize yourself with his ideas. The Elliott Wave is the thing, O.K.?