One separate branch of the thriller that is sure to develop is the American film geared toward special effects, with acrobatic numbers anf minimal focus on acting, but with lots of animals, train wrecks, etc., used as material for the artistic structure.
Such films will be more interesting by virtue of their material. The motivation [Shklovsky is talking about plot here:] in them will deteriorate more and more. The end result will be some sort of variety show.
Was Michael Bay reading Shklovsky while working on Transformers 2?
All Wellesian prophecy aside, Shklovsky's short treatise has less to do with the cinema than with literature, not surprising in a book written in 1923, in Russia. Remember (it's important) that this was even before Battleship Potemkin (1925) a film which would reverse some of Shklovsky's reservations about the cinema, and no doubt also tend to radically change some of his claims here. But maybe not.
Most interesting are the intersections Shklovsky suggests between the two media, particularly as regards "plot". Because "montage" was a foreign concept at the time, Shklovsky tends to look down upon the possibilities and limitations of the cinematic adumbration, suspecting where he might have been celebrating. Because Shklovsky was not a crank, though, he comes across as being open to those possibilities, even while condemning them as a false path for literature.
Film is not motion (it is a series of still images), but the invention of or suspension of disbelief in motion. Motion is its material, just as ideas are the material of literature (Shklovsky suggests that art, in particular literature, is made up of--as this translator has it--"form and material," which, of course, cannot be separated). Plot is a support to motion, inventing reasons for and explanations of, motion, alternative to psychology--the chief force of movement in a (particular type of) novel, which cannot really be demonstrated in film.
The devices of cinema are also those of Zeno's paradox. Montage, and its literary equivalent (if such a thing is possible-- Shklovsky says not), collage, are at the heart of this paradox, which shows just how in tune Shklovsky was with Eisenstein. But to inhabit the same space, literature would have to abandon plot in favor of spectacle, an unnatural fit, as Shklovsky saw it.
Has our familiarity with the cinema changed that? Barthelme was not just parodying television and cinema in his collages, he was also creating a new (I don't mean original, but new in the sense that the autodidact's learning is new to him/her) mode of expressing his ideas: not a carnival or vaudeville of ideas, but an assemblage, not so far from the epistolary novel at all. So maybe Shklovsky wasn't against the idea of montage so much as against the idea of "losing the plot," the idea of the idea-less novel, something that would be divorced from its own material. Which, it seems to me, does exist, and is entirely as execrable as Shklovsky says it would be.