Randomness by Deborah J. Bennett

by Deborah J. Bennett

"Chance governs all," said Milton, but he was writing about hell, not statistical probability. In the modern world, we assume that Milton's hell is everywhere--that is, that fate is best described in terms of statistics, odds, risks, and randomness. But most people, even many scientists, find probability difficult to understand and often counter to common sense. Mathematician Deborah Bennett looks at the history of statistics, games of chance and the casting of lots, the "Monty Hall" problem, and sources of random numbers. "Every day we can see evidence that the human species does not yet have a very highly developed probabilistic sense." With more books like Bennett's, we may in time become better at it--chances are. --Mary Ellen Curtin

Genres: Nonfiction, Mathematics, Science, Philosophy, History, Finance

Paperback

First published January 1, 1998

Reviews

[Sheila M.]

This was a surprising historical look at probability and why probability is so difficult for humans to understand (because we rely on our intuition which in the arena of probability is often wrong). The author writes this well and I came away with an appreciation about how long it took humanity to recognize randomness and chance.

[Jesse Ofner · Rating 4 out of 5]

I thought it was a very good high level on both the different aspects of randomness with some quality history on the study of it. It’s not a deep dive but the notes contain good content for getting more details and what thinkers to investigate.

[Daniel · Rating 3 out of 5]

I thought the book was OK. My understanding of randomness is not OK. Why is math so hard for me. I enjoyed reading about the history of Randomness.

[Dawith · Rating 3 out of 5]

It's a fun summary of history of how human understanding around probability and chance developed

[Stewart · Rating 3 out of 5]

I was hoping for more discussion of the philosophy of randomness and how randomness influences, in fact, dominates our lives. However, this short book was more about the mathematics of chance: a brief history of gambling, the bell curve, and the chance of two persons in a group of 25 people having the same birthday (about 50-50), etc., material I already knew.
However, author Deborah Bennett poses one interesting question: Is a situation or event random because of our ignorance of its contributing factors or are the causes of a random situation unknowable. For example, any single toss of a coin is considered a random event. But if someone could determine all the properties of the coin and construct a mechanical hand that tosses it exactly the same all the time, plus he had complete knowledge of the wind conditions, etc., could he predict the outcome of each toss 100 percent of the time? It might take weeks or months to acquire this knowledge, making it unlikely anyone would attempt this experiment.
Some events, formerly seen as completely random, are now less so, for instance, weather forecasting. One hundred years ago and more, the weather was considered random (except in a general way the change of seasons). Now, with weather satellites, radar, and computers, we much better understand the patterns of weather and can predict with high probability the next day or so the weather at a certain place.
Putting this question aside, for the vast majority of humans, life has a high degree of randomness, although less than the worlds of 1,000 years ago or 10,000 years ago. We walk out the door of our house or apartment every day mixing into our world, seeing people, objects, and events that are largely random and uncertain. Life is a fluctuation of surprises.

[JP · Rating 3 out of 5]

A concise and interesting history. I like the emphasis on differentiating random sequence from randomn generation and the important of looking at the practical need. For example, a series of like numbers are totally expected in a long series but may be undesirable for small samples. Many applications really need some basis of disorder. The comprehensive history includes the eventual agreement that both e and pi contain a seemingly random sequence of digits.

[Fredrik · Rating 2 out of 5]

chances are that an arbitrary book is funnier than this one. more of a history book than a food-for-though piece on randomness; i expected more.