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Third Millennium Thinking: Creating Sense in a World of Nonsense
Based on a wildly popular UC Berkeley course, a primer on how to think critically, make sound decisions, and solve problems—individually and collectively—using scientists’ tricks of the trade.
In our deluge of information, it's getting harder and harder to distinguish the revelatory from the contradictory. How do we make health decisions in the face of conflicting medical advice? Does that article on GMOs even show what the authors claim? How can we navigate the next Thanksgiving discussion with our in-laws, who follow completely different experts on climate?
In Third Millennium Thinking , a physicist, a psychologist, and a philosopher introduce readers to the tools and frameworks that scientists have developed to keep from fooling themselves, to understand the world, and to make decisions. We can all borrow these trust-building techniques to tackle problems both big and small.
Readers will
Using provocative thought exercises, jargon-free language, and vivid illustrations drawn from history, daily life, and scientists’ insider stories, Third Millennium Thinking offers a novel approach for readers to make sense of the nonsense.
In our deluge of information, it's getting harder and harder to distinguish the revelatory from the contradictory. How do we make health decisions in the face of conflicting medical advice? Does that article on GMOs even show what the authors claim? How can we navigate the next Thanksgiving discussion with our in-laws, who follow completely different experts on climate?
In Third Millennium Thinking , a physicist, a psychologist, and a philosopher introduce readers to the tools and frameworks that scientists have developed to keep from fooling themselves, to understand the world, and to make decisions. We can all borrow these trust-building techniques to tackle problems both big and small.
Readers will
Using provocative thought exercises, jargon-free language, and vivid illustrations drawn from history, daily life, and scientists’ insider stories, Third Millennium Thinking offers a novel approach for readers to make sense of the nonsense.
320 pages, Hardcover
Published March 26, 2024
193 people are currently reading
4019 people want to read
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Displaying 1 - 30 of 43 reviews
June 4, 2024
3.5 stars. Basically how to think critically and analyze disparate pieces of information. It didn’t feel like there was many new ideas but probably it was good to put this out into the world with so much disinformation and illogical conclusions.
June 15, 2024
This book is on an insanely important topic, which is becoming a better thinker. The authors include a physicist, a psychologist, and a philosopher, so I was pretty excited to check this book out. Now, as I give my review of this book, just know that it’s insanely bias because I read a ton of books on this topic, so my experience is much different compared to someone who hasn’t read many of these or hasn’t read any at all.
Overall, this book was fine. I was expecting a lot more from this book, but it wasn’t really there. Sure, there were some studies that were interesting and some of the personal stories with lessons the authors have learned to improve their own thinking were great, but there wasn’t much that was groundbreaking in this book. Again, it’s important to remember that I’ve read dozens of these books.
If you’re just now becoming interested in the topic of becoming a better thinker, this is a 10 out of 10 book to learn about biases, heuristics, and other thinking errors. The authors teach a course at UC Berkeley, so they know their stuff. I definitely recommend this book to anyone new to the topic or haven’t read many books in this realm.
Overall, this book was fine. I was expecting a lot more from this book, but it wasn’t really there. Sure, there were some studies that were interesting and some of the personal stories with lessons the authors have learned to improve their own thinking were great, but there wasn’t much that was groundbreaking in this book. Again, it’s important to remember that I’ve read dozens of these books.
If you’re just now becoming interested in the topic of becoming a better thinker, this is a 10 out of 10 book to learn about biases, heuristics, and other thinking errors. The authors teach a course at UC Berkeley, so they know their stuff. I definitely recommend this book to anyone new to the topic or haven’t read many books in this realm.
April 11, 2024
This book is very important for modern world. This gave great tools and information to aid in critical thinking and analysis in a world full of misinformation and disinformation. Highly recommend.
May 25, 2024
Third Millenium Thinking (abbreviated 3MT), the authors (three academics from different disciplines) posit that in our current era, we need to do a better job of thinking critically, evaluating and weighing evidence, and carefully considering future and distant future impacts of current behavior, more so than in previous generations where technology was less advanced and the world was less globalized. This is an interesting take, though I would posit that the tenets and need for 3MT isn't necessarily unique to our current era.
Further reading -- books that make similar points:
Merchants of Doubt: How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming by Naomi Oreskes and Erik Conway
Rigor Mortis: How Sloppy Science Creates Worthless Cures, Crushes Hope, and Wastes Billions by Richard Harris
Elastic: Flexible Thinking in a Time of Change by Leonard Mlodinow
Further reading -- books that make similar points:
Merchants of Doubt: How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming by Naomi Oreskes and Erik Conway
Rigor Mortis: How Sloppy Science Creates Worthless Cures, Crushes Hope, and Wastes Billions by Richard Harris
Elastic: Flexible Thinking in a Time of Change by Leonard Mlodinow
December 17, 2024
I spent most of the second half of this book wondering how it would have been different if the authors had taken their own advice about probabilistic thinking and the importance of incorporating counterfactuals. Had they, for example, given serious account of relevant scholarship in rhetoric, education, political theory, etc., they might have been better positioned to at least offer some thoughtful, grounded insights on the current and future political landscape with all its challenges and opportunities. As it is, the book started off with some interesting discussions about the practical advantages of scientific thinking, but by the end it became a rather tired reiteration the claim that society could be amazing if only everyone else could reason like us. The result is a pretty utopic vision of "science" (e.g., no discussion of the challenges posed to scientific thinking within professional communities by the scramble for research funding, publishing expectations, etc.) and a narrow vision of the political.
Probably worth a read for the early chapters, but don't expect any groundbreaking insights for creating collective consensus.
Probably worth a read for the early chapters, but don't expect any groundbreaking insights for creating collective consensus.
August 21, 2024
A handy guide on how to apply scientific thinking in your day to day reflections, in order to reduce bias, deal with disinformation and make better predictions.
Best take away for me: thinking in terms of probability instead of binary and always thinks about why you can be right, but also how you can be wrong.
Best take away for me: thinking in terms of probability instead of binary and always thinks about why you can be right, but also how you can be wrong.
April 20, 2025
Not bad in and of itself, but I’d argue this isn’t in any way “new” thinking, but rather explicitly laying out our civilization’s ideal on how people should be (and should have been) thinking for the last few hundred years.
I don’t know if it has been laid out as explicitly anywhere, and there is a certain value to that, and the authors have done so in a very positive and kind way.
But I’d argue that “third millennium thinking” really would be in understanding why these forms of thinking haven’t caught on despite being promoted as extensively as they have. There’s a note around certainty and politicians — how if one day everyone thinks like this, then we as a civilization will be OK with politicians saying “I think there’s a 65% chance this will work” vs demanding unwavering certainty.
There are a lot of ideals this style of thinking had predicted for the last few hundred years that haven’t come to fruition. When confronted with this, the answer to why has always been “ignorance” with the prediction that more people exposed to this worldview would cause adoption and improvements of society. Again, while almost no scientific advance would be possible without scientific thinking like this, it seems clear that there’s a huge brick wall when it comes to social advancements, and simply telling more people about scientific thinking won’t cut it.
I think real “third millennium thinking” has to address that gap.
I don’t know if it has been laid out as explicitly anywhere, and there is a certain value to that, and the authors have done so in a very positive and kind way.
But I’d argue that “third millennium thinking” really would be in understanding why these forms of thinking haven’t caught on despite being promoted as extensively as they have. There’s a note around certainty and politicians — how if one day everyone thinks like this, then we as a civilization will be OK with politicians saying “I think there’s a 65% chance this will work” vs demanding unwavering certainty.
There are a lot of ideals this style of thinking had predicted for the last few hundred years that haven’t come to fruition. When confronted with this, the answer to why has always been “ignorance” with the prediction that more people exposed to this worldview would cause adoption and improvements of society. Again, while almost no scientific advance would be possible without scientific thinking like this, it seems clear that there’s a huge brick wall when it comes to social advancements, and simply telling more people about scientific thinking won’t cut it.
I think real “third millennium thinking” has to address that gap.
01-jan24-wait-and-see
January 18, 2024Adam Grant rec
June 25, 2024
85%
A book focused on training people to act and think logically and with reasoning especially in our extremely powerfully resourced environment? Yes please. A bit lacking in practical application in day-to-day life but there are some great intentions here and this book was executed greatly.
A book focused on training people to act and think logically and with reasoning especially in our extremely powerfully resourced environment? Yes please. A bit lacking in practical application in day-to-day life but there are some great intentions here and this book was executed greatly.
December 2, 2025
Some basic ideas on how science should work with reproducible results, statistical review, probability of confidence, etc. And some suggestions on how the non-scientist might apply those to gain confidence in what they are seeing, hearing, viewing, although I doubt that it is generally practical.
The biggest hurdle is that the general public is just not being told confidence levels or relevant statistical review nor would they even really understand if they were told. We hear trust the science but we don't always get the full science or opposing viewpoints presented in a factual matter. We get masks on/ masks off/ masks on for COVID, clinical trial results of some Covid vaccines sealed for 90 years, dissenting opinions marked as "fringe" scientists - certainly not full disclosure of any point of view. Depending on who you listen to, your political persuasion, social media, and other factors it is very challenging to actually hear all those results, reviews, probabilities that are needed for informed opinions. (not to pick on or espouse a view on Covid, just one recent example)
And we also get scientific studies that may be totally accurate but misleading. One recent example is with HRT and the recent reversal of recommended use. As I understand it, a study several years back claimed Hormone Replacement Therapy would lead to a 45% increase in risk for breast cancer and potentially other problems. Although that was true, the actual risk went from 1.8% to 2.6%. It is a 45% increase but the total risk is still a very small number. The truth, but is it the whole truth?
It would have been helpful if the authors would have spent some time suggesting ways to employ these methods in the hyper-polarized political world we now seem to be living. How for instance can we ensure that we know the science behind policies without reading the original and generally highly technical papers that decide those policies? And how does the general population decide which "experts" are generally deserving of our trust? And how do we ensure that those in positions of power, political and otherwise, use those methods?
There is a lot of good information but I'm not sure how generally applicable it is. I think there could have been more said about how a general populace can employ these methods in their life.
I believe there is also one little error in the discussion on systematic vs. statistical error. The majority of the discussion and graph agrees in the definition of those terms but one sentence uses the opposite definition - "clout of darts is spread out (systematic uncertainty) and its center is offset from the bull's-eye (statistical uncertainty)". I would suggest that systematic and statistical should be interchanged based on the rest of the text.
The biggest hurdle is that the general public is just not being told confidence levels or relevant statistical review nor would they even really understand if they were told. We hear trust the science but we don't always get the full science or opposing viewpoints presented in a factual matter. We get masks on/ masks off/ masks on for COVID, clinical trial results of some Covid vaccines sealed for 90 years, dissenting opinions marked as "fringe" scientists - certainly not full disclosure of any point of view. Depending on who you listen to, your political persuasion, social media, and other factors it is very challenging to actually hear all those results, reviews, probabilities that are needed for informed opinions. (not to pick on or espouse a view on Covid, just one recent example)
And we also get scientific studies that may be totally accurate but misleading. One recent example is with HRT and the recent reversal of recommended use. As I understand it, a study several years back claimed Hormone Replacement Therapy would lead to a 45% increase in risk for breast cancer and potentially other problems. Although that was true, the actual risk went from 1.8% to 2.6%. It is a 45% increase but the total risk is still a very small number. The truth, but is it the whole truth?
It would have been helpful if the authors would have spent some time suggesting ways to employ these methods in the hyper-polarized political world we now seem to be living. How for instance can we ensure that we know the science behind policies without reading the original and generally highly technical papers that decide those policies? And how does the general population decide which "experts" are generally deserving of our trust? And how do we ensure that those in positions of power, political and otherwise, use those methods?
There is a lot of good information but I'm not sure how generally applicable it is. I think there could have been more said about how a general populace can employ these methods in their life.
I believe there is also one little error in the discussion on systematic vs. statistical error. The majority of the discussion and graph agrees in the definition of those terms but one sentence uses the opposite definition - "clout of darts is spread out (systematic uncertainty) and its center is offset from the bull's-eye (statistical uncertainty)". I would suggest that systematic and statistical should be interchanged based on the rest of the text.
June 12, 2025
Più nonsenso che senso, basandomi su quello che letto nel libro "Trovare il senso in un mondo senza senso. Pensare nel terzo millennio" di Saul Perlmutter, John Campbell e Robert MacCoun. Si propone un approccio pragmatico e metodologico alla questione del senso piuttosto che una risposta definitiva.
Gli autori - che includono un premio Nobel per la fisica (Perlmutter), un filosofo (Campbell) e un esperto di politiche pubbliche (MacCoun) - sembrano aver trovato un "senso" specifico nel processo stesso del pensiero critico e scientifico. Il libro "mostra come analizzare in modo critico la realtà, prendere decisioni valide e risolvere i problemi - individualmente e collettivamente - utilizzando i trucchi del mestiere degli scienziati".
La loro risposta alla domanda sul senso non è filosofica o esistenziale in senso tradizionale, ma metodologica: il senso si trova nell'adozione di strumenti intellettuali rigorosi per navigare la complessità del mondo contemporaneo. L'opera "ci offre un approccio per dare un senso al nonsenso, insegnandoci a prendere decisioni valide e a risolvere problemi".
In sostanza, gli autori sembrano aver "trovato" il senso nel processo di pensiero stesso - non come una verità assoluta da scoprire, ma come una competenza da sviluppare. Il loro approccio suggerisce che il senso emerge dall'applicazione di metodi scientifici e razionali alla comprensione della realtà, piuttosto che dalla ricerca di significati ultimi o trascendenti. Se voi avete capito, il senso è vostro. Io preferisco il nonsenso.
Gli autori - che includono un premio Nobel per la fisica (Perlmutter), un filosofo (Campbell) e un esperto di politiche pubbliche (MacCoun) - sembrano aver trovato un "senso" specifico nel processo stesso del pensiero critico e scientifico. Il libro "mostra come analizzare in modo critico la realtà, prendere decisioni valide e risolvere i problemi - individualmente e collettivamente - utilizzando i trucchi del mestiere degli scienziati".
La loro risposta alla domanda sul senso non è filosofica o esistenziale in senso tradizionale, ma metodologica: il senso si trova nell'adozione di strumenti intellettuali rigorosi per navigare la complessità del mondo contemporaneo. L'opera "ci offre un approccio per dare un senso al nonsenso, insegnandoci a prendere decisioni valide e a risolvere problemi".
In sostanza, gli autori sembrano aver "trovato" il senso nel processo di pensiero stesso - non come una verità assoluta da scoprire, ma come una competenza da sviluppare. Il loro approccio suggerisce che il senso emerge dall'applicazione di metodi scientifici e razionali alla comprensione della realtà, piuttosto che dalla ricerca di significati ultimi o trascendenti. Se voi avete capito, il senso è vostro. Io preferisco il nonsenso.
February 1, 2025
It's a primer about methods of clear thinking. It talks about when you should be careful about your own certainty, how you can think probabilistically, being aware of your cognitive biases and so forth. It was nothing new for me. I like to think that I mostly practice these techniques already automatically as I go through the world, though I am sure that I do so less consistently in practice than I think that I do. So in that regard, the book was useful reinforcement.
The thing that I liked best about the book was a point that only comes in at the end, but that is perhaps more effective by being presented that way as a closing thought - clear thinking always has to include a consideration of community. If your thinking is purely abstract, driven only by principles of logic and reason and probability, existing only in Plato's world of perfect forms, then you will miss the most important thing. Cold calculation is miscalculation. It's the lesson of Mr. Spock from Star Trek, who is presented to us as the embodiment of pure logic, but as we get to know him, we come to understand that his logic is always ultimately tempered by his friendship for Captain Kirk and his deep caring about the crew of the Enterprise and their mission.
The thing that I liked best about the book was a point that only comes in at the end, but that is perhaps more effective by being presented that way as a closing thought - clear thinking always has to include a consideration of community. If your thinking is purely abstract, driven only by principles of logic and reason and probability, existing only in Plato's world of perfect forms, then you will miss the most important thing. Cold calculation is miscalculation. It's the lesson of Mr. Spock from Star Trek, who is presented to us as the embodiment of pure logic, but as we get to know him, we come to understand that his logic is always ultimately tempered by his friendship for Captain Kirk and his deep caring about the crew of the Enterprise and their mission.
December 19, 2024
Very good book, and super timely, as well as incredibly important given all the misinformation, disinformation, and the way all of us are inundated every day with information, content, and stimulation, most of which is largely just noise and nonsense.
This book is especially important because of the echo chambers in which most of us now find ourselves, chambers of people that only confirm and amplify what we already believe to be true, much of which is still likely inaccurate and/or missing a lot of key facts, and so we walk around in very narrow containers of incredibly limited knowledge, much of which is still faulty and littered with holes. And this applies to thinking and values on both sides of the political spectrum.
This book helps with learning to think critically, examine thoughtfully, and work through this stuff so we don't descend further into a society of extremism, black-and-white thinking, and stupidity. Thus, I highly recommend this book. It's not an easy read per say, though it's also not difficult. It is one worth sticking with and preserving through, though, since it's incredibly important.
This book is especially important because of the echo chambers in which most of us now find ourselves, chambers of people that only confirm and amplify what we already believe to be true, much of which is still likely inaccurate and/or missing a lot of key facts, and so we walk around in very narrow containers of incredibly limited knowledge, much of which is still faulty and littered with holes. And this applies to thinking and values on both sides of the political spectrum.
This book helps with learning to think critically, examine thoughtfully, and work through this stuff so we don't descend further into a society of extremism, black-and-white thinking, and stupidity. Thus, I highly recommend this book. It's not an easy read per say, though it's also not difficult. It is one worth sticking with and preserving through, though, since it's incredibly important.
Read
December 23, 2025Overview with case studies and stories on how to reduce error and bias and promote collective thinking that builds trust and authenticity into decision making and applies the best/most accurate scientific experiment principles to our thinking overall
it promotes building the habit of questioning what we read/propose to prevent the negative impacts of narrowcasting, bias and how we fool ourselves and get stuck in incorrect viewpoints. We tend to seek data that supports confirmation bias and avoid checking for error.
these tools and concepts are vital.
some readers may find this to be very 101, but that's by design.
a good reminder
I found their telling of Jacques Benveniste's memory of water story sneering.. but my bias is 100% of having known him and knowing how committed to his team he was, he was astonished by the findings, not a homeopathic fan looking for corroboration. he wanted and welcomed more research. It seems not all in his lab were unbiased . heartbreaking. He was more than a warning to others .
it promotes building the habit of questioning what we read/propose to prevent the negative impacts of narrowcasting, bias and how we fool ourselves and get stuck in incorrect viewpoints. We tend to seek data that supports confirmation bias and avoid checking for error.
these tools and concepts are vital.
some readers may find this to be very 101, but that's by design.
a good reminder
I found their telling of Jacques Benveniste's memory of water story sneering.. but my bias is 100% of having known him and knowing how committed to his team he was, he was astonished by the findings, not a homeopathic fan looking for corroboration. he wanted and welcomed more research. It seems not all in his lab were unbiased . heartbreaking. He was more than a warning to others .
July 26, 2025
Since I've been around the block for more than a few minutes and since I come from a science background, almost none of this was new to me. However, the authors framed this well I would highly recommend it to those in their 20's or 30's, especially if they want to argue online. It doesn't cover all the logical fallacies or errors in reasoning, but it does go over the essentials and offers habits that will prevent most errors of thinking. The humble attitude throughout is what makes this book stellar. This is not a bunch of know-it-alls warning you about why you're wrong, (or even why everyone else is wrong and you might be right) but is a cautionary warning that even when we have the best of intentions, it doesn't mean we're going to get it right. And we need to be OK with that. And correcting ourselves when we are shown to be wrong, painful though it may be.
July 19, 2024
This started off as more-or-less a guide to how scientists think, and most of the content was quite familiar, although it is always helpful to have concepts made explicit. I found the greatest value in the later sections dealing with new approaches to working with crowds, acknowledging participants are not all on the same side. The book benefited by being written by a physicist, a philosopher and a social scientist, making the insights broadly applicable and sorely needed in this conflict-riddled world. Scientific optimism was also highlighted as a valuable trait, and manifests here with the authors' parting messages that emerging technologies and 3MT approaches are capable of making a difference.
November 19, 2024
The authors did a fairly accurate review of the book in it's final chapter:
".. we don’t claim it is completely original to us, and we certainly don’t claim it can stand alone as an authoritative work of intellectual history. Everything in the first two columns has been discussed and dissected by many different scholars in many different disciplines.
But we do think the third column describes emerging patterns that have not been fully or widely appreciated yet."
If you replace "column" with "part", the quote perfectly mirrors my opinions while reading the book. The last part is what makes it a worthwhile read.
".. we don’t claim it is completely original to us, and we certainly don’t claim it can stand alone as an authoritative work of intellectual history. Everything in the first two columns has been discussed and dissected by many different scholars in many different disciplines.
But we do think the third column describes emerging patterns that have not been fully or widely appreciated yet."
If you replace "column" with "part", the quote perfectly mirrors my opinions while reading the book. The last part is what makes it a worthwhile read.
February 20, 2025
The book presents an optimistic vision of societal progress, emphasizing trust and social optimism as key to shaping the future. However, the book assumes these qualities exist in abundance, often overlooking skepticism and division. It also falls into confirmation bias, reinforcing its hopeful perspective without fully addressing counterarguments or historical failures. A more nuanced take on things going wrong and societal divides would have strengthened its arguments.
Regardless, the book gets 5 stars because it's amazing to see 3 different people all with different academic backgrounds come together and explain how people think/should think these days.
Regardless, the book gets 5 stars because it's amazing to see 3 different people all with different academic backgrounds come together and explain how people think/should think these days.
April 4, 2025
In an age where information is of so easy access through the new technological innovations there needs to be a process of critically evaluating the information, this is a book that gives you the tools to do so, not only for evaluating information but to develop and articulate our own individual thoughts and to open up real useful discussions with your community on anything that you might have ever pondered on. Confidence, estimation, facing the different values and opinions people from different backgrounds from ours might have, and aiming for a new enlightenment through the techniques and tools proposed in this book this is the 3MT.
March 24, 2024
How can we possibly know what's true when we're bombarded by studies and opinions and research and talking heads at every turn? This was a good start to acquiring the tools we need to sort and evaluate all that. I found myself thinking of people who need this book, but I don't know if they'd ever consider themselves as needing it. Then I thought maybe I'm one of the ones who needs it! It really wouldn't hurt anyone to honestly look at how they form, keep and defend their opinions.
Read
March 17, 2025Hope is not just another 4-letter word. Three authors share their ideas for how humanity can indeed rise to our current challenges. Working together actually can provide some surprising benefits, even when we assume we disagree. (Especially when we disagree?) These and other ideas/facts/stories are presented for readers to consider. Stimulating conversations await us!
December 2, 2025
Super wichtige Denkansätze für eine Welt des Informationsüberflusses. Allerdings empfand ich die selbst gesetzte Messlatte was das Buch “will” zu hoch für das was dann kommt. Ich bin leider kein Fan der deutschen Übersetzung - der Schreibstil erscheint mir recht sperrig und ich vermute das Original ist einfacher zu lesen. Nichtsdestotrotz bietet das Buch hoch relevante Denkanstöße.
April 11, 2024
It was OK. Hoping for more. The concept of the book sounded more fun than it was.
Good coverage on the scientific method and some of the errors we make, but not super helpful.
For more useful solutions in decision making, I would suggest Decisive by Chip & Dan Heath.
Good coverage on the scientific method and some of the errors we make, but not super helpful.
For more useful solutions in decision making, I would suggest Decisive by Chip & Dan Heath.
August 28, 2024
On audiobook, some of the tables/lists are quite disorienting and boring to listen to. It can be hard to follow.
But in general, many compelling points, ideas and strategies for navigating the masses of information we sift through each day.
But in general, many compelling points, ideas and strategies for navigating the masses of information we sift through each day.
May 6, 2025
For individuals who work for the sciences, this book will not be too stimulating. There are some chapters associated with how to approach conflict within groups and bias. I did enjoy the science and mathematics approach
May 7, 2024
3.5 stars
June 11, 2024
Covers a lot of the territory that Nicholas Nassim Taleb and Daniel Kahnemann cover in their respective books and cites examples that are not quite as fresh.
June 25, 2024
Great for high schoolers who want to have some guidance. Slightly technical for that level though.
Want to read
July 8, 2024Since you never bothered to send me this book that you said I won, It is a little hard for me to review it. I don't know if anyone else got their copy, but I did not. Lousy way to run a business.
Want to read
July 19, 2024DMPL EXAMINED 2024_07_19 AUDIBLE WISH LIST
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