Anyone interested in financial markets soon discovers that changes in prices are frequently substantial and always difficult to forecast. This book describes this behavior from a statistical perspective, recording prices at regular intervals, thereby determining trends from which to anticipate future prices and potential volatility of markets.Covers variance ratio and chaos tests. -- Includes new data sets, including stock returns. -- Volatility chapters emphasize ARCH models. -- Includes new chapters on forecasting volatility and options valuation.
Stephen Taylor is Senior Lecturer at Manchester Metropolitan University Business School and the CIPD's examiner for the Managing in a Strategic Business Context paper.