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Oceans Rise Empires Fall: Why Geopolitics Hastens Climate Catastrophe
A powerful explanation of why geopolitical competition makes implementing effective climate change policies so difficult. As the Russia-Ukraine war has shown, great-power competition drives states to prioritize fossil fuel acquisition over working toward a zero-carbon future.
In the last few years, it has become abundantly clear that the effects of accelerating climate change will be catastrophic, from rising seas to more violent storms to desertification. Yet why do nation-states find it so difficult to implement transnational policies that can reduce carbon output and slow global warming? In Oceans Rise, Empires Fall , Gerard Toal identifies geopolitics as the culprit. States would prefer to reduce emissions in the abstract, but in the great global competition for geopolitical power, states always prioritize access to carbon-based fuels necessary for generating the sort of economic growth that helps them compete with rival states. Despite what we now know about the long-term impacts of climate change, geopolitical contests continue to sideline attempts to halt or slow down the process.
The Ukraine conflict in particular exposes our priorities. To escape reliance on Russia's vast oil and gas reserves, states have expanded fossil fuel production that necessarily increases the amount of carbon in the atmosphere. The territorial control imperatives of great powers preclude collaborative behavior to address common challenges. Competitive territorial, resource, and technological dramas across the geopolitical chessboard currently obscure the deterioration of the planet's life support systems. In the contest between geopolitics and sustainable climate policies, the former takes precedence-especially when competition shifts to outright conflict. In this book, Toal interrogates that relationship and its stakes for the ongoing acceleration of climate change.
In the last few years, it has become abundantly clear that the effects of accelerating climate change will be catastrophic, from rising seas to more violent storms to desertification. Yet why do nation-states find it so difficult to implement transnational policies that can reduce carbon output and slow global warming? In Oceans Rise, Empires Fall , Gerard Toal identifies geopolitics as the culprit. States would prefer to reduce emissions in the abstract, but in the great global competition for geopolitical power, states always prioritize access to carbon-based fuels necessary for generating the sort of economic growth that helps them compete with rival states. Despite what we now know about the long-term impacts of climate change, geopolitical contests continue to sideline attempts to halt or slow down the process.
The Ukraine conflict in particular exposes our priorities. To escape reliance on Russia's vast oil and gas reserves, states have expanded fossil fuel production that necessarily increases the amount of carbon in the atmosphere. The territorial control imperatives of great powers preclude collaborative behavior to address common challenges. Competitive territorial, resource, and technological dramas across the geopolitical chessboard currently obscure the deterioration of the planet's life support systems. In the contest between geopolitics and sustainable climate policies, the former takes precedence-especially when competition shifts to outright conflict. In this book, Toal interrogates that relationship and its stakes for the ongoing acceleration of climate change.
280 pages, Hardcover
Published June 4, 2024
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Displaying 1 - 6 of 6 reviews
January 8, 2025
This is great if you're new to the complex rising climate drivers and simple yet likely to be ignored because of a couple of rich asshats, solutions.
I loved the way it was written, it's an important addition to the literature. However it could have been an essay with the key points.
Rather than holding hands in a circle around the earth, to raise the combined capability, compassion, and will to survive. Planetary humanity is instead going to gun (each other) for a desperate scramble for the last remaining resources and then pull the drawbridge up on their respective castle keeps. Those on the outside or with ravaged castles will die sooner than those partying inside their slightly extended lock ins.
As Sarah Connor says, the future is not set, but as geopolitics and democracy operate inside capitalism and the interests of the few, it's looking pretty grim.
I loved the way it was written, it's an important addition to the literature. However it could have been an essay with the key points.
Rather than holding hands in a circle around the earth, to raise the combined capability, compassion, and will to survive. Planetary humanity is instead going to gun (each other) for a desperate scramble for the last remaining resources and then pull the drawbridge up on their respective castle keeps. Those on the outside or with ravaged castles will die sooner than those partying inside their slightly extended lock ins.
As Sarah Connor says, the future is not set, but as geopolitics and democracy operate inside capitalism and the interests of the few, it's looking pretty grim.
February 9, 2026
Oceans rise, empires fall shows how geopolitics hastens the climate catastrophe we are in. The first part of the book attempts to define geopolitics. It's a multifaceted, changing thing comprising the legal territories nations live in and defend as well as the global resources we want to use it keep economically viable. Toal notes nations focus on the former and ignore the impacts of on earth systems/resources to our own detriment.
Toal then describes the history of geopolitics which, like the capitalism on which it is based, and the geographers who theorised about it, ignores the reality and constraints of earth's systems/resources.
Toal describes game theory as a basis for political decision making and shows that defence of territory is always valued more than earth system/resources. Consequently, as defence requires constant improving communication, energy and technology to outcompete other nations (utilities that have been ignored by geographers), the human race is heading for collapse.
Other sources of inertia are social belief systems set around individual freedoms. Any constraints to live within our means are viewed as an attack on the right to freedom and ignored. Societal values such as freedom, equity are valued more than the earth systems/resources that sustain life.
Toal paints a compelling picture of the structure of nations and nationhood and provide examples where political decisions are interpreted using the geopolitical framework and game theory. He shows that geopolitics and earth systems are largely chaotic but does not discuss emergence. He feels we just have to cooperate. Maybe he wants to end optimistically, however there is nothing in his book that supports this will ever happen.
The language is very academic and at times introduces concepts that are not explained or incidental. A lot of big words are used. Concepts are often repeated using different sets of big words. He overcomplicates basic things. The style is typical of social geographers - a lot of talk about the so called (revisionist) geopolitical theory that Toal demonstrably shows to be a poor predictor of reality.
Although early geographers theorising about geopolitics are shown to be wrong headed, and even as politicians adopted their world views, Toal continues to use game theory and highlights its failings in the face of climate catastrophe. This adherence to a theme makes the book more an academic essay on historical geopolitical theory rather than a modern construct and call for action.
Then, after describing all this, Toal asks "Are the celebrated ideals of modernity themselves superstructures built upon unsustainable economic practices and therefore drivers of climate catastrophe?" pg 152. Having undermined the facts and his entire premise he turns to technology.
The book should outline a modern theory of geopolitics that can be adopted by decision makers and/or used to make predictions. Instead it feels like geographers, economists and politicians have set humanity on a doomed trajectory while rejecting science and ecology. Toal at least could have painted a vision of a world with a realistic value set.
What Toal shows is that we have brought the climate catastrophe on ourselves and will continue this momentum due to the geopolitical structures and capitalism we have contructed underpinned by fossil fuel use. We voted in the current fascist leaders, so we all have to reassess our priorities. Collective action is a fantasy. Collective suicide is well underway.
Toal then describes the history of geopolitics which, like the capitalism on which it is based, and the geographers who theorised about it, ignores the reality and constraints of earth's systems/resources.
Toal describes game theory as a basis for political decision making and shows that defence of territory is always valued more than earth system/resources. Consequently, as defence requires constant improving communication, energy and technology to outcompete other nations (utilities that have been ignored by geographers), the human race is heading for collapse.
Other sources of inertia are social belief systems set around individual freedoms. Any constraints to live within our means are viewed as an attack on the right to freedom and ignored. Societal values such as freedom, equity are valued more than the earth systems/resources that sustain life.
Toal paints a compelling picture of the structure of nations and nationhood and provide examples where political decisions are interpreted using the geopolitical framework and game theory. He shows that geopolitics and earth systems are largely chaotic but does not discuss emergence. He feels we just have to cooperate. Maybe he wants to end optimistically, however there is nothing in his book that supports this will ever happen.
The language is very academic and at times introduces concepts that are not explained or incidental. A lot of big words are used. Concepts are often repeated using different sets of big words. He overcomplicates basic things. The style is typical of social geographers - a lot of talk about the so called (revisionist) geopolitical theory that Toal demonstrably shows to be a poor predictor of reality.
Although early geographers theorising about geopolitics are shown to be wrong headed, and even as politicians adopted their world views, Toal continues to use game theory and highlights its failings in the face of climate catastrophe. This adherence to a theme makes the book more an academic essay on historical geopolitical theory rather than a modern construct and call for action.
Then, after describing all this, Toal asks "Are the celebrated ideals of modernity themselves superstructures built upon unsustainable economic practices and therefore drivers of climate catastrophe?" pg 152. Having undermined the facts and his entire premise he turns to technology.
The book should outline a modern theory of geopolitics that can be adopted by decision makers and/or used to make predictions. Instead it feels like geographers, economists and politicians have set humanity on a doomed trajectory while rejecting science and ecology. Toal at least could have painted a vision of a world with a realistic value set.
What Toal shows is that we have brought the climate catastrophe on ourselves and will continue this momentum due to the geopolitical structures and capitalism we have contructed underpinned by fossil fuel use. We voted in the current fascist leaders, so we all have to reassess our priorities. Collective action is a fantasy. Collective suicide is well underway.
May 7, 2025
Oceans Rise Empires Fall: Why Geopolitics Hastens Climate Catastrophe offers a compelling and urgent analysis of how the competitive nature of international politics undermines efforts to address climate change. Toal argues that the traditional priorities of nation-states-territorial control, national security, and economic growth-drive countries to pursue resource dominance and energy independence, often at the expense of meaningful climate action. This dynamic, he contends, is not just a background factor but a primary reason why global climate agreements and initiatives so often fall short.
Through historical context and contemporary case studies, Toal demonstrates how geopolitical rivalries have repeatedly led to environmental degradation. He draws on examples such as the scramble for fossil fuels following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, showing how even well-intentioned climate policies are quickly sidelined when national interests are at stake. The book argues that the logic of competition and suspicion between states makes international cooperation on climate change extraordinarily difficult, as each nation prioritises its own short-term advantage over the collective long-term good.
Ultimately, Toal calls for a radical rethinking of global priorities, urging world leaders and citizens alike to recognise that the survival of the planet must take precedence over geopolitical gamesmanship. He maintains that while history shows cooperation is possible in times of crisis, it requires visionary leadership and a willingness to break from entrenched patterns of rivalry. Oceans Rise Empires Fall is a sobering reminder that unless the world can transcend the zero-sum mindset of geopolitics, efforts to avert climate catastrophe will remain inadequate.
Through historical context and contemporary case studies, Toal demonstrates how geopolitical rivalries have repeatedly led to environmental degradation. He draws on examples such as the scramble for fossil fuels following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, showing how even well-intentioned climate policies are quickly sidelined when national interests are at stake. The book argues that the logic of competition and suspicion between states makes international cooperation on climate change extraordinarily difficult, as each nation prioritises its own short-term advantage over the collective long-term good.
Ultimately, Toal calls for a radical rethinking of global priorities, urging world leaders and citizens alike to recognise that the survival of the planet must take precedence over geopolitical gamesmanship. He maintains that while history shows cooperation is possible in times of crisis, it requires visionary leadership and a willingness to break from entrenched patterns of rivalry. Oceans Rise Empires Fall is a sobering reminder that unless the world can transcend the zero-sum mindset of geopolitics, efforts to avert climate catastrophe will remain inadequate.
August 16, 2025
"Territories have always been more complicated than how they appear on map."
Oceans Rise, Empires Fall reads at times more like a thesis than a work of nonfiction intended for the general reader. It takes its time (a little more than I’d like) to reach its central points, prefacing them with a great deal of background. Much of that groundwork is useful if you’re new to the topic, but if you’ve followed the news over the last few years, read a handful of articles, and devoted even half a moment to thinking about the subject, you probably won’t need quite so much handholding.
That said, the premise is as relevant as it is important. The connections Toal draws between the climate crisis, rising global tensions, and the resurgence of fascism are all there, neatly laid out and clearly linked.
The writing itself can be a little dry, particularly in the more academic stretches, and I imagine those less familiar with textbooks might find it harder to get through. Still, I appreciated having these threads tied together in one tidy volume, even if I wished the journey to the heart of the matter had been quicker.
3 stars.
Oceans Rise, Empires Fall reads at times more like a thesis than a work of nonfiction intended for the general reader. It takes its time (a little more than I’d like) to reach its central points, prefacing them with a great deal of background. Much of that groundwork is useful if you’re new to the topic, but if you’ve followed the news over the last few years, read a handful of articles, and devoted even half a moment to thinking about the subject, you probably won’t need quite so much handholding.
That said, the premise is as relevant as it is important. The connections Toal draws between the climate crisis, rising global tensions, and the resurgence of fascism are all there, neatly laid out and clearly linked.
The writing itself can be a little dry, particularly in the more academic stretches, and I imagine those less familiar with textbooks might find it harder to get through. Still, I appreciated having these threads tied together in one tidy volume, even if I wished the journey to the heart of the matter had been quicker.
3 stars.
June 21, 2025
Most of the book is about Mackinder, Schmitt, Haushofer, and some recent geopolitical events. If you already know them, just skip chapters until the Chapter 7. The climate change and geopolitics connection as a core topic comes only in that last chapter before the conclusion. This book could have been a good article, but it is a disappointing book.
May 15, 2026
The title of the book is a bit misleading. The author provides a great synopsis of the geopolitical picture since World War Two but in the end loosely ties the rise of great powers to climate change.
Displaying 1 - 6 of 6 reviews