Next War: Reimagining How We Fight

by John Antal, Mike Rounds (Foreword)

An analysis of the lessons learned from recent wars, including the conflict in Ukraine, and how top war-fighting disrupters are transforming the methods of warfare.

The nature of war is constant change. We live in an era of exponential technological acceleration which is transforming how wars are waged. Today, the battlespace is transparent; multi-domain sensors can see anything, and long-range precision fire can target everything that is observed. Autonomous weapons can be unleashed into the battlespace and attack any target from above, hitting the weakest point of tanks and armored vehicles. The velocity of war is hyper-fast.

Battle shock is the operational, informational, and organizational paralysis induced by the rapid convergence of key disrupters in the battlespace. It occurs when the tempo of operations is so fast, and the means so overwhelming, that the enemy cannot think, decide, or act in time. Hit with too many attacks in multiple domains, all occurring simultaneously, the enemy is paralyzed. In short, the keys to decisive victory in war is to generate battle shock.

Imagine a peer fight against Communist China, a new war in Europe against a resurgent Russia, or a conflict against Iran in the Middle East. How can our forces survive an enemy-first strike in these circumstances? Can we adapt to the ever-accelerating tempo of war?

Will our forces be able to mask from enemy sensors? How will leaders execute command and control in a degraded communications environment? Will our command posts survive? Will our commanders see and understand what is happening in order to plan, decide, and act in real time? This book addresses these tough questions and more.

Table of Contents

How War is Changing

1. Learning from the Second Nagorno Karabakh War and the Russian-Ukrainian War
2. The Transparent Battlespace
3. The First Strike Advantage
4. The Tempo Of War
5. Top Attack
6. Full Automation
7. The Kill Web
8. Visualizing the Battlespace in All Domains—Executing Mission Command
9. Decision Dominance
10. Implications for the Defense of Taiwan

Genres: Military Fiction, War, Nonfiction

256 pages, Paperback

Published September 28, 2023

About the author

Colonel John Antal, US Army (Retired)served 30 years in the US Army as a leader, senior staff officer and commander. He commanded tank and combined arms combat units at platoon, company, battalion and regimental level. He is Airborne and Ranger qualified. He has served in sensitive joint, combined Army staff assignments in the US and overseas. He also served as the Special Assistant to the United States Military Academy at West Point, the Command and General Staff College and the Army War College. Since his retirement from the US Army in 2003, he has become a successful author, speaker, magazine editor, film adviser and personality, mass-market video game developer, explainer-integrator, journalist, and leadership expert.

Reviews

[Rich · Rating 4 out of 5]

Military leaders are frequently criticized for planning to fight the next war in the same manner that they fought their last war. This approach is problematic due to changing conditions and technological advances. John Antal defines and examines nine disrupters that he believes will influence how future wars will be fought. He draws upon recent experiences in the Second Nagorno-Karabakh war, the 2021 Israel-Hamas war, and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war to identify trends in warfare. Antal makes a case for the future battlefield requiring multidomain operations and being greatly impacted by artificial intelligence, unmanned aerial and ground vehicles, and targeting based on a sophisticated array of sensors.

John Antal is well qualified to examine these trends. He is a retired U.S. Army colonel who has commanded tank and cavalry units from platoon to brigade level. He is a former member of the U. S. Army Science Board. He has also closely studied the Second Nagorno-Karabakh war which he documented in his book, 7 Seconds To Die: A Military Analysis of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War and the Future of Warfighting.

Antal includes fictionalized accounts of real life events to illustrate the impact that the disrupters will have on the battlefield. These vignettes were interesting and enhanced my enjoyment as I read the book.

Hopefully, the senior leaders within the U. S. defense establishment are taking away the appropriate lessons from these recent conflicts and applying them to their preparations for future conflicts. To be successful, military leaders will need to conduct realistic training to ensure that their units are prepared to fight and win in the future combat environment.

[Dale · Rating 4 out of 5]

John Antal thinks about war; past, present and future. In this book he focuses the evolving technology and the consequences for maneuver and mission command.

[Medusa · Rating 3 out of 5]

I think this is a good book; how revelatory or revolutionary it seems will as always depend on what you know coming in. I'd have to say that although it's topical, it's also a bit dated already in some particulars. There is some decent training advice here, and certainly he is correct that failures of imagination get people killed.

There's also - well. The book reminds me a little bit of the Star Trek Next Generation episode where the crew come upon an AI holographic weapons dealer still fabricating ever more lethal weapons despite the fact the weapons already fabricated killed everyone on the planet. The AI remains chipper about the whole thing and doesn't see any problems, naturally - because its function is to sell product.

That's kind of how Antal sounds in a lot of the tech speak and glossy weapons manufacturer copy presented as fact or likely impending future fact. He also sounds credulous when discussing how wonderful Starlink is and all its wonderful military possibilities since it's under the "right" leadership - and no discussion at all of the risks of intertwining defense expenditure and infrastructure with private companies whose interests may or may not coincide with the government of the USA, or who may go from being helpful to pocketed by the higher bidder.

So it's an okay book that may sort of wow you if this is the first you are hearing about a lot of these systems and what they can do. Three stars seems a fair rating to me.

At this writing, the book is available on Everand and is a pretty quick read.

[Robert Nelson · Rating 5 out of 5]

Antal is a forward thinker. Anyone who is a career soldier should read his work.

[Pedro · Rating 4 out of 5]

Covers until mid-2023.

[skid · Rating 5 out of 5]

A short book covering disruptive battlefield technologies and their influence on the tactics, techniques and procedures of the modern battlefield - it covers all domains of warfare, from a tactical, operational and strategic perspective.

It ultimately boils down to nine concepts:

1) the transparent battlespace
2) the first strike advantage
3) artificial intelligence increasing the tempo of war
4) ai-enabled drone “super swarms”
5) the kill web
6) visualizing the battlespace (shared common operating pictures, joint all-domain command and control)
7) top attack
8) fully-autonomous vehicles, drones, weapons, etc.
9) decision dominance

The book doesn’t delve too deeply into any one aspect or topic and rather flies over the top of many - thus allowing it to “get to the point” without being bogged down in minutiae. It’s a helpful primer for further study, and has a lengthy selected bibliography which can be used for that. The point is to introduce leaders to these topics, to engage peoples’ minds on them, and to spur discussion. Certainly worth reading and re-reading if you’re a military officer, or anyone interested in the future of conflict.

The vignettes can be a little cheesy, but they get the point across.

[Hj Reichen · Rating 5 out of 5]

Great analysis of how technology might impact the command of war. Vignettes visualize possible outcomes. A strong focus on mission command.

[Jeff · Rating 4 out of 5]

Very tactically and army focused. But definitely worth resting for anyone in the Natsec space and/or defense innovation space.

[Joost Lubberman · Rating 4 out of 5]

Insightful and thought provoking. War is deeply a human activity, but with increasing numbers of technological components

[Kathy · Rating 4 out of 5]

It's all the things you need to know about today's warfare that you didn't know you needed to know.

[Atif]

Qurantly

[Jan · Rating 4 out of 5]

Thorough and thoughtful

[Rachael · Rating 5 out of 5]

A great way to realize how much current technology has already changed warfare. Excellent content, examples, and recommendations for those thinking about the next generation of warfare. A must read for military members.

[Terry Tucker · Rating 4 out of 5]

Interesting

The author uses contemporary examples to state both an obvious and compelling case for thinking about strategic and operational warfare. At times, it is a bit redundant and the writing tone and style may annoy some reader's, but the book still has merit for future thinking. The bibliography and suggested additional resources are very good and the notes can also be used to further ones reading.