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Kazakhstan: Unfulfilled Promise
Kazakhstan's oil and gas reserves are among the largest in the world. At the outset of independence 10 years ago, Kazakhstan's leaders promised that the country's rich natural resources would soon bring economic prosperity, and it appeared that democracy was beginning to take hold in this newly independent state. A decade later, economic reform is mired in widespread corruption. A regime that flirted with democracy is now laying the foundation for family-based, authoritarian rule. The first thorough examination of the development of this ethnically diverse and strategically vital nation, Kazakhstan: Unfulfilled Promise is a valuable resource for policymakers, scholars, and students concerned with the process of transition from communism to independent statehood in the former Soviet Union.
320 pages, Paperback
First published November 30, 2001
About the author
Martha Brill Olcott
26 books9 followersAka Toni Brill (joint pseudonym with her husband Anthony Olcott)
Martha Brill Olcott is a senior associate with the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment in Washington, DC.
Olcott specializes in the problems of transitions in Central Asia and the Caucasus as well as the security challenges in the Caspian region more generally. She has followed interethnic relations in Russia and the states of the former Soviet Union for more than twenty-five years and has traveled extensively in these countries and in South Asia. Her book, Central Asia’s Second Chance, examines the economic and political development of this ethnically diverse and strategically vital region in the context of the changing security threats post-9/11.
In addition to her work in Washington, Olcott co-directs the Carnegie Moscow Center Project on Religion, Society, and Security in the former Soviet Union and the al-Farabi Carnegie Program on Central Asia in Almaty, Kazakhstan. She is professor emerita at Colgate University, having taught political science there from 1974 to 2002.
Olcott served for five years as a director of the Central Asian American Enterprise Fund. Prior to her work at the Carnegie Endowment, she served as a special consultant to former secretary of state Lawrence Eagleburger.
Soon after 9/11, she was selected by Washingtonian magazine for its list of “71 People the President Should Listen To” about the war on terrorism.
Olcott is the author of Tajikistan’s Difficult Development Path (Carnegie Endowment, 2012); In the Whirlwind of Jihad (Carnegie Endowment, 2012); Central Asia’s Second Chance (Carnegie Endowment, 2005); Kazakhstan: Unfulfilled Promise (Carnegie Endowment, 2002); Preventing New Afghanistans: A Regional Strategy for Reconstruction (Carnegie Endowment Policy Brief 11, 2001) Getting It Wrong: Regional Cooperation and the Commonwealth of Independent States, with Anders Åslund and Sherman Garnett (Carnegie Endowment, 1999); and Russia After Communism edited with Anders Åslund (Carnegie Endowment, 1999).
Martha Brill Olcott is a senior associate with the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment in Washington, DC.
Olcott specializes in the problems of transitions in Central Asia and the Caucasus as well as the security challenges in the Caspian region more generally. She has followed interethnic relations in Russia and the states of the former Soviet Union for more than twenty-five years and has traveled extensively in these countries and in South Asia. Her book, Central Asia’s Second Chance, examines the economic and political development of this ethnically diverse and strategically vital region in the context of the changing security threats post-9/11.
In addition to her work in Washington, Olcott co-directs the Carnegie Moscow Center Project on Religion, Society, and Security in the former Soviet Union and the al-Farabi Carnegie Program on Central Asia in Almaty, Kazakhstan. She is professor emerita at Colgate University, having taught political science there from 1974 to 2002.
Olcott served for five years as a director of the Central Asian American Enterprise Fund. Prior to her work at the Carnegie Endowment, she served as a special consultant to former secretary of state Lawrence Eagleburger.
Soon after 9/11, she was selected by Washingtonian magazine for its list of “71 People the President Should Listen To” about the war on terrorism.
Olcott is the author of Tajikistan’s Difficult Development Path (Carnegie Endowment, 2012); In the Whirlwind of Jihad (Carnegie Endowment, 2012); Central Asia’s Second Chance (Carnegie Endowment, 2005); Kazakhstan: Unfulfilled Promise (Carnegie Endowment, 2002); Preventing New Afghanistans: A Regional Strategy for Reconstruction (Carnegie Endowment Policy Brief 11, 2001) Getting It Wrong: Regional Cooperation and the Commonwealth of Independent States, with Anders Åslund and Sherman Garnett (Carnegie Endowment, 1999); and Russia After Communism edited with Anders Åslund (Carnegie Endowment, 1999).
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Displaying 1 - 4 of 4 reviews
May 18, 2016
This is an excellent summary of events in Kazakhstan from the last years of the Soviet Union until the start of the 21st century, and I recommend it wholeheartedly to anyone with a serious interest in this fascinating country. The writing is generally clear and engaging, the content is comprehensive and the analysis is balanced and intelligent. However, I will point out that Martha Brill Olcott is a political scientist and this work is very much written from a political perspective. It is perfect introductory reading for a student writing a paper on Kazakhstan at the bachelor or master level; it is absolutely not meant to be a spot of light reading for a layman with a passing interest in the country or who intends to travel there.
After a brief introduction that highlights key issues that will be addressed in the book, the second chapter outlines Kazakhstan’s path to independence and, in particular, describes Nazarbaev’s efforts to promote regional integration and co-operation between the newly independent post-Soviet countries. Olcott provides astute analysis and explanation of Nazarbaev’s motives in doing this, which I think is fundamental to understanding Kazakhstan’s foreign policy right up to the modern day.
For me personally, there is no doubt that the most interesting part of the book is the third chapters, which deals with the ethnic issues in Kazakhstani society. Olcott argues that, faced with a highly multi-ethnic society (40% Kazakh, 37% Russian and 33% others on the eve of independence), Kazakhstan needed to promote an inclusive civic national identity to ensure that all citizens felt invested in their country’s future. However, as she explains, Nazarbaev’s government constantly hesitated between this option and the promotion of ethnic Kazakh nationalism, often in a contradictory manner. As a result, she claims, there is little reality to claims of a “Kazakhstani” identity, and most citizens continue to see themselves and each other primarily as Kazakhs, Russians, Uzbeks, Uyghurs, Tatars, Ukrainians, etc. Nonetheless, she deems the likelihood of violent ethnic conflict to be low for a variety of reasons.
The fourth chapter describes the developments in Kazakhstan’s system of government, showing how, after some dabbling in multi-party parliamentary democracy, Nazarbaev gradually reduced civil and political freedoms and increased his own control of the country. This chapter is particularly interesting as Olcott highlights the fact that, while Nazarbaev concentrated increasing power in his own hands and usually personally chose and dismissed the members of his government, he was never completely free to rule as an unrestrained autocrat and did regularly face resistance from his parliament on specific issues.
As someone with only a very rudimentary understanding of economics, I found the fifth chapter, which deals with economic developments, quite heavy going. But even though I felt my interest waning at times and some of the detail went over my head, I definitely gained a decent comprehension of the key factors and trends in the development of Kazakhstan’s economy.
The sixth chapter deals with the different divisions within Kazakhstani society: ethnic, regional, rural-urban and poor-rich. This chapter is certainly interesting, but unfortunately contains a lot of repetition of ground already covered in previous chapters.
In the final chapter, Olcott offers predictions for Kazakhstan’s future potential. Her words are not very optimistic. She emphasizes two interrelated problems that have come out as central issues throughout the book: leadership interested more in personal gain than the good of the country and corruption rampant at all levels. Corruption hampers the foreign investment so necessary for Kazakhstan’s economy and means that the money the state does make doesn’t trickle down to the masses. Moreover, it means that citizens have no faith in the state’s ability to provide for them or protect their interests. However, Olcott concludes that it is not necessarily too late for the country to change course if the leadership has an admittedly unlikely change of heart: the country inherited relatively favourable conditions, with a well-educated population and a wealth of natural resources. She suggests that a key factor in determining future developments is the USA’s policy towards the country, which she argues should pursue longer-term goals of democratization and stability rather than short-term economic and geopolitical interests. This is a topic that she addresses in more detail in her next book, Central Asia’s Second Chance.
After a brief introduction that highlights key issues that will be addressed in the book, the second chapter outlines Kazakhstan’s path to independence and, in particular, describes Nazarbaev’s efforts to promote regional integration and co-operation between the newly independent post-Soviet countries. Olcott provides astute analysis and explanation of Nazarbaev’s motives in doing this, which I think is fundamental to understanding Kazakhstan’s foreign policy right up to the modern day.
For me personally, there is no doubt that the most interesting part of the book is the third chapters, which deals with the ethnic issues in Kazakhstani society. Olcott argues that, faced with a highly multi-ethnic society (40% Kazakh, 37% Russian and 33% others on the eve of independence), Kazakhstan needed to promote an inclusive civic national identity to ensure that all citizens felt invested in their country’s future. However, as she explains, Nazarbaev’s government constantly hesitated between this option and the promotion of ethnic Kazakh nationalism, often in a contradictory manner. As a result, she claims, there is little reality to claims of a “Kazakhstani” identity, and most citizens continue to see themselves and each other primarily as Kazakhs, Russians, Uzbeks, Uyghurs, Tatars, Ukrainians, etc. Nonetheless, she deems the likelihood of violent ethnic conflict to be low for a variety of reasons.
The fourth chapter describes the developments in Kazakhstan’s system of government, showing how, after some dabbling in multi-party parliamentary democracy, Nazarbaev gradually reduced civil and political freedoms and increased his own control of the country. This chapter is particularly interesting as Olcott highlights the fact that, while Nazarbaev concentrated increasing power in his own hands and usually personally chose and dismissed the members of his government, he was never completely free to rule as an unrestrained autocrat and did regularly face resistance from his parliament on specific issues.
As someone with only a very rudimentary understanding of economics, I found the fifth chapter, which deals with economic developments, quite heavy going. But even though I felt my interest waning at times and some of the detail went over my head, I definitely gained a decent comprehension of the key factors and trends in the development of Kazakhstan’s economy.
The sixth chapter deals with the different divisions within Kazakhstani society: ethnic, regional, rural-urban and poor-rich. This chapter is certainly interesting, but unfortunately contains a lot of repetition of ground already covered in previous chapters.
In the final chapter, Olcott offers predictions for Kazakhstan’s future potential. Her words are not very optimistic. She emphasizes two interrelated problems that have come out as central issues throughout the book: leadership interested more in personal gain than the good of the country and corruption rampant at all levels. Corruption hampers the foreign investment so necessary for Kazakhstan’s economy and means that the money the state does make doesn’t trickle down to the masses. Moreover, it means that citizens have no faith in the state’s ability to provide for them or protect their interests. However, Olcott concludes that it is not necessarily too late for the country to change course if the leadership has an admittedly unlikely change of heart: the country inherited relatively favourable conditions, with a well-educated population and a wealth of natural resources. She suggests that a key factor in determining future developments is the USA’s policy towards the country, which she argues should pursue longer-term goals of democratization and stability rather than short-term economic and geopolitical interests. This is a topic that she addresses in more detail in her next book, Central Asia’s Second Chance.
November 11, 2011
A pretty comprehensive outline of Kazakhstan's first ten years of independence from the Soviet Union and its prospects for the future at that time. It is somewhat out of date (as this year Kazakhstan will celebrate 20 years of independence), but sadly not all that much. While a few things are different: economically the country is in better shape than it was in 2002, its oil industry is more developed, and Russia is no longer in as much a mess as it was in the first decade after the fall of the USSR. Nevertheless, all the problems Olcott identifies (corruption, lack of democracy, the question of succession, ethnic/class/clan divisions, etc) are all still very much a part of modern Kazakhstan.
June 19, 2014
Olcott's take on the transformation of Kazakhstan from a Soviet State to an independent country was quite bleak - until the final updated chapter. Kazakhstan has a number of problems. Olcott notes in a number of places that when compared to it's neighbors, Kazakhstan's transformation is quite good. It is not where we, as the West, would like it to be normatively, but there is progress there.
Given the status of Ukraine right now (in summer 2014), Kazakhstan's foreign policy and diplomacy in not upsetting Russia, while maintaining and strengthening ties to the US, is a great story. I look forward to experiencing life in Kazakhstan firsthand in the coming years.
Given the status of Ukraine right now (in summer 2014), Kazakhstan's foreign policy and diplomacy in not upsetting Russia, while maintaining and strengthening ties to the US, is a great story. I look forward to experiencing life in Kazakhstan firsthand in the coming years.
July 18, 2010
Excellent book on the history of the transition of Kazakhstan. Could have been shorter; repeats itself a lot.
Displaying 1 - 4 of 4 reviews