The Real Majority: The Classic Examination American Electorate

by Richard M. Scammon, Ben J. Wattenberg

With a new introduction for the '90s, this classic work on the American electorate is as alive and as relevant as it was when first written. The Real Majority discovered and defined the middle class, a group whose values and interests were once ignored but that are now catered to by both major parties in this national election year.

Genres: Politics, Nonfiction, The United States Of America, History, Historical

Mass Market Paperback

First published August 28, 1971

About the author

Richard Montgomery Scammon was an author, political scientist, and elections scholar. He served as Director of the U.S. Bureau of the Census from 1961 to 1965. Afterwards, he worked for decades directing election analysis for NBC News.

Scammon served in the U.S. Army during World War II. After the war, he served in occupied Germany after the war, heading the military government's office of elections and political parties. After his discharge, he worked for the U.S. Department of State until 1955.

Returning to the U.S. in 1955, Scammon founded the Elections Research Center, which published the first standard and reliable statistics for the results of major elections in all 50 states. On election night in 1960 he consulted for NBC News, working with the RCA computers to call the election for each state.

In 1961, Scammon was appointed Census Director, where he continued until 1965.

On election night in 1968, Scammon returned to NBC News to direct its coverage. He continued his work as a consultant for NBC until 1988. He retired, closing the Elections Research Center, in 1995.

Reviews

[Molly Kranzley Driscoll · Rating 2 out of 5]

Gave this a quick read after hearing it had similarities to the current election. A little academic for me and hard to relate on some of the historical references, but an interesting look at voters, not the candidate.

[Sagar Jethani · Rating 3 out of 5]

The true significance of Wattenberg and Scammon's "The Real Majority" is that it foretold the ideological shift of the Republican party away from economics and into hot-button social issues. The authors analysis of 1968 voting data revealed that Democrats risked a historical alignment between the Republican party and voters whose stance on social issues-- rising crime, housing, moral decay, youth rebellion --made them increasingly alienated within the party of Robert Kennedy.

The most striking moment in the book occurs during a discussion on what it means to be a conservative:

"What does 'conservative' mean in the context of the [upcoming decade of the] 1970's?

[What follows is a series of questions showing strong conservative support on issues including strong crackdowns on student protests, opposition to slavery reparations, stronger anti-obscenity laws, and the continued criminalization of marijuana]

So one-sided are these results that we may predicate that it may well be the feeling about the Social Issue that has been moving voters to say they are 'conservative'.

But on the non-Social Issues, there seems to have been a move toward liberal, not conservative, attitudes. ...Medicaid, poverty programs, aid to cities, are issues that five or ten or fifteen years ago would have been considered rather far out for middle-of-the-roaders. Today they are clearly in the mainstream. Today the voters are all for coping with the crisis of the cities, for fighting pollution, for better health care-- all the liberal goals of only a few years ago.

Insofar as the political eye can see, this is the apparent paradox of attitude in the seventies: conservative on the Social Issue, liberal on the bread-and-butter issues."

The historical weight of this observation cannot be exaggerated. Republican strategists such as Kevin P. Phillips wasted no time in putting Wattenberg's argument to work by urging his party to keep voters focused on social issues rather than bread-and-butter issues. While Republicans could capture Democratic votes by appealing to the growing backlash to the tumult of the 1960's, Republicans could only do so by minimizing the focus on economics and social justice issues-- both of which skewed strongly for liberals.

An important work of political analysis, "The Real Majority" was the harbinger of the GOP's shift into demagoguery.

[Steve · Rating 4 out of 5]

Published in 1970, Scammon and Wattenberg's book is remarkably prescient about the developing electorate which had elected Richard Nixon two years earlier -- and has continued to develop into our current political climate. The authors not only predicted the continued attraction to the voters of the political center, but observed that social issues would only increase in importance to the electorate. There's also some great analysis of political polarization and the "Solid South". Political junkies will eat it up.

[Michael Linton · Rating 5 out of 5]

This book is STILL relevant today. 1968 seems to be the year social issues took a backseat to economic issues. However, it doesn't mean economic issues aren't relevant as seen in 2024. It definitely still plays a significant role in modern day elections.