China, India, and the United States: The Future of Economic Supremacy

by Peter Rodriguez

You are living at a critical moment of change for the world economy. A moment that will be defined by the economic trajectories of three key players. A moment whose outcome will have a deep and lasting impact on the way you live. Recent years have seen a dramatic, unprecedented transformation in the landscape of the global economy. And the catalyst of this transformation-destined to create a new economic order that will scarcely resemble that of the last 300 years-is undoubtedly the rise of China and India. Both nations, which represent around 37% of the world's population, have experienced a rapid surge in annual economic growth of 7% to 10% in the last decade alone-a growth rate that is nothing short of miraculous.Just as important as this amazing story are its implications for the United States. Long seen as the central driving force behind the world's economy, the United States is emerging from the greatest recession in more than 80 years. For the first decade of the 21st century, its average per capita income growth was a paltry 0.53% per year. As China and India continue to gain a dominant foothold in the 21st-century marketplace, America's role in it will continue to evolve in unprecedented ways. Knowing what to possibly expect from the future of the global economy presents an enormous opportunity for you to better prepare yourself for the momentous challenges and possibilities of tomorrow. Now you can, with China, India, and the United States: The Future of Economic Supremacy. This provocative six-lecture course, delivered by noted economist and award-winning Professor Peter Rodriguez of the University of Virginia's Darden School of Business, is your opportunity to preview what the next few decades of the global economy may look like. Offering you pointed looks at the economic past, present, and possible futures of these three powerful nations, these lectures will have you finally grasping the intricate nature of our world economy and the driving forces responsible for where it will stand in years to come.

Get Answers to Pressing Questions about These Economic Giants

In the last 20 years the incremental economic growth of China and India has been the equivalent of adding another United States to the world economy-and it could happen again in just 12 years, or even fewer. The implications of such a statistic demand to be better understood, and Professor Rodriguez's lectures are the perfect way to witness just how these three economies have gotten where they are today.Central to this course are revealing answers to some of your most pressing questions about the current state of the global economy and its future. How long will the United States remain at the top of the global economic ladder, and what will happen when that time passes? What economic, political, and cultural forces are responsible for China's and India's spectacular growth over the last two decades? When and why might China's and India's rapid annual growth rates slow down? What strategies and policies can these three nations undertake to weather the current global recession?

Discover the Future of the 21st-Century Global Economy

In addition to bringing you up to speed with the economic stories of these three world powers, China, India, and the United States: The Future of Economic Supremacy also provides you with insights into the next decades of the world economy and the new economic order currently being forged. Throughout the lectures, Professor Rodriguez uses his keen economist's eye to report ideas, trends, and possible outcomes you can expect to see as China and India continue to reach (and possibly even supersede) the economic power of the United States.Here are just a few of the many predictions and possibilities you'll explore in depth. China's particular challenge to sustain solid economic growth, more so than the two other countries, will be highly political in nature. India cannot rely solely on information technology to continue growing; rather, it must also achieve global prowess in manufacturing to truly strengthen its internal and external economic power. The United States must reemerge as a global exporter and must retain its preeminent status in financial markets to ensure its near-term economic future. Most important, you'll investigate how the great changes in the coming years will also bring with them a range of benefits and opportunities for each of these three countries. According to Professor Rodriguez, the coming decades of the new global economy will be a bumpy ride, but there is much to remain positive and hopeful about for the United States and the rest of the world.Learn What to Expect-Before Everyone ElseIn addition to being a skilled educator whose awards include Princeton University's Teaching Excellence Award, Professor Rodriguez possesses significant real-world business experience working with multinational companies, including Rolls Royce and Visa. This know-how, combined with his vast...

Genres: Economics, Nonfiction, Politics, History, Business, Audiobook, China

3 pages, Audio CD

First published January 1, 2011

Reviews

[Chris Csergei · Rating 2 out of 5]

This wouldn't be a bad introduction to the topic, but he didn't really flesh out his arguments. He asumes that you lack knowledge on the topic so that he doesn't have to prove his points, which is a weak way to present a topic.

[Rick Wilson · Rating 3 out of 5]

It’s good. It’s a little outdated and a very broad picture GC. But seems to present an accurate portrait of the sweep of the three major economies mentioned

[Jeff · Rating 4 out of 5]

Well worth listening to, but now somewhat dated. Strongest aspects are the Professors' strong grasp of international economies and the use of capital flows to promote growth and secondary growth, especially regarding China. Also, the Professor does not mince words regarding the link of political power and economic policies ( Think the difference between Deng and Yeltsin). He could be more critical of India, or could he? The course is marred somewhat by a tendency to flip into econospeak-or the shorthand used by experts. For example, when he speaks of the US "savings deficiency", he's really talking about how the US has financed its bloated consumerist growth by borrowing, mostly from abroad. The US dollar as a reserve,"safe" currency has buoyed that borrowing for decades. He does not mince words about what needs to be done to rebalance the US economy, but you have to be at the Macro Econ 202+ course level to get what he says clearly.

[Abhi Gupte · Rating 3 out of 5]

Very enlightening series of lectures but all too short. No idea why this had to be just 6 lectures. Prof. Rodriguez has some amazing insights but they leave you hungry for more.

[George · Rating 4 out of 5]

Well worth listening too, especially if one isn't familiar with the dynamics behind the economic changes within India and China across the past few decades. It's a little out of date now, which is why I dinged it a star, but it's a solid treatment of the topic.

[Alex Shrugged · Rating 3 out of 5]

I wanted to give this Great Courses lecture an extra star except for the fact that it was entirely too short, and it lacked a lot of the historical context needed to understand how China/ India/ The United States got into the economic situations they found themselves in. I listened carefully, and the lecturer got all the facts right, and included some context. It simply wasn't enough to correct any misunderstandings he introduced in the beginning.

It started off with "China is wonderful!" Certainly they have pulled themselves out of a massive hole in the last 40 years. I've seen it, but they dug that hole, jumped in, broke both legs before they set themselves on fire due to Mao and true socialism. Thus any improvement at all was bound to be amazing. The lecturer mentioned that 20 to 40 million Chinese died of starvation due to "The Great Leap Forward" commanded by Mao. Clearly a command economy cannot work on such a large scale. It barely works on a small scale.

Next came "India is going to be like China soon!" It was a little more realistic, but it still lacked enough context to understand the reasons behind why their economy was stagnant for so many years. (Can you say socialism?)

And finally, the USA economy collapsed with the Subprime Mortgage Crisis. However, the actual causes were glossed over. Granted, there was only so much one could say about it in such a short time, so there should have been a lot more time allocated to all of these subjects... at least twice as much time... to provide more historical context, explanations and repetition.

Learning occurs through repetition, locking in that knowledge. There was not enough opportunity for repetition. Thus misunderstandings are guaranteed to occur.

For additional context I suggest reading:

Mao: The Unknown Story

India After Gandhi: The History of the World's Largest Democracy

I don't have any book recommendations about the Subprime Mortgage Crisis, but I suggest reading Basic Economics: A Citizen's Guide to the Economy by Thomas Sowell. I read an earlier edition of this book and learned a lot. I think this book is now in its 5th edition, so perhaps he addresses the Subprime Mortgage Crisis.

OK, I checked Basic Economics: A Citizen's Guide to the Economy out of the library and did a search. Sowell mentioned the Subprime Mortgage Crisis briefly, but I also found this book: The Housing Boom and Bust by Thomas Sowell. I put a hold on it. I'll read it and let you know after I read it.

Update: I read Basic Economics: A Citizen's Guide to the Economy. It was an excellent explanation of the sub-prime mortgage crisis and its causes. My full review can be found here: https://www.goodreads.com/review/show/3079967224

[Clifford Nelson · Rating 5 out of 5]

I had read a review of this set of lectures as being out of date. I was thinking it may have little to offer given that it was done in 2011, but I really thought it was still very informative, and still there was a lot applicable especially for the United States and India, and from a historical context it was good to understand for China, how China has evolved to what it is now. It basically covers from the end of World War II to the present (2011)
I was fascinated to hear about the reasons for the failure of the Great Leap Forward being because of misreporting. It basically confirms my thoughts that where the Cultural Revolution and the Great Leap forward were destructive because in part that it repressed the intellectuals. Scientists are important to a society because the try to understand how things work and what is happening. China did not have the ability to understand even what the real grain production was. This is something some scientists would study. Chinese leadership was working on assumptions, and it is possible that lower-level leaders were lying or maybe they also did not know the truth. What Mao was trying to accomplish, which was the industrialization of China, was a good goal, but without understanding what was really happening, the decisions were destruction. Today China always attempts to move slowly, and there are many leaders that have technical degrees, so they understand the uses of science and its limitations.
A truth he states about China, is that China needs to change because the areas it can be economically successful is rapidly changing as China becomes more prosperous. I can no longer depend on low cost labor. This is, as he states, something the US does not seem to understand has it seems to be trying to get manufacturing back into the country. It will not work. In recent years China has taking a lot of what was the anchor of the Japanese and Korean economy from those countries. Recently China has become the biggest exporter of electronics, cars and ship from Japan and South Korea. It also appears China is going the dominate the semiconductor market, including the equipment needed for these industries.
He also stated as I already felt, that it has been information technology that has been the big success of India. I have worked for the Indian company he mentioned as an example, Infosys. And I also feel that he is also right about there getting to be a excess number of software developers. That India can prosper with such and industry is unique in history—He questions if India can continue to depend so heavily on this industry. If there is one area that I would really like to hear what he thing of how things have changed for India over the years since this set of lectures because I am the same confidence that India can continue to prosper with its lack of progress in improving the quality of life in India, and the continued terrible state of Indian infrastructure.
He also discusses how the US has to adapt to a changing world as the world moves from a unipolar world centered on the US to a multipolar world where the US becomes less central. He feels that the US will continue do well, but I see the US going on a self-destructive path as it attempts to maintain its hegemony, and the rich, the top 1%, having a much greater percent of the American wealth. I think that tis is a very bad trend that will send the US to becoming more like the countries that have the great wealth disparity, the poor countries of the world.

[Feng Ouyang · Rating 3 out of 5]

This is a “Great Courses” lecture series. However, it does not seem to teach something systematically. Instead, it expresses the opinion of the author. The book spends one lecture each to describe the recent economic histories of China, India and the United States. This is followed by a discussion of the future.
This recounts of China and India are very simplistic. The Chinese economy took off in the 80s and 90s because the country changed course and allowed a market economy and private enterprise. The stable political system provides the confidence needed for investment. Then, boom. India obtained high growth by abandoning the “self-sufficient” mentality and allows for economic specialization. I don’t know too much about what happens in India, but I can tell many essential factors were left out of the Chinese story. For example, in the early 80s, China benefited a lot from the capital, technology, and management influx from Hong Kong and Taiwan, as well as the overseas Chinese community. Such influx ignited the economic takeoff. Later on, China caught the wave of globalization to become the “factory of the world.” Another critical factor is the national capitalist system in China. The government protects against foreign competitions in the domestic market and subsidizes export, effectively forcing a very high saving rate.
The focus of the book, however, seems to lay on understanding the change in the US economy: since the 21st century, the US appears to have lost its prominence in the world economy. The author’s explanation is that the US gained prominence by serving as the world’s reserve currency. Such a position causes capital inflow, i.e., borrowing from other countries to provide dollar-denominated bonds. This causes the problem of the US financial bubble (too much capital) and an extremely low saving rate. Now we are facing the day of reckoning when we must rebalance our production and consumption to stop borrowing so much (if not repay the debt from the past). Eventually, we should desire a world where the US is not the only supplier of reserve funds. The US will lose prominence in that scenario, but we will be better off by creating more values in our economy.
I agree that the imbalance of international trade has more profound reasons than trade policies. It has to do with the demand for dollar-denominated assets overseas. However, I don’t agree that the need for the reserve currency is the only reason. The undisciplined US politics that rake up a substantial financial deficit is another reason that US bonds attract foreign capital influx. The 2008 financial bubble is not entirely due to the oversupply of capital, either. Misaligned incentives regarding risk-taking, the Government’s attempt of providing risky loans to promote social policy, and wide-spread fraud due to weak regulation are all contributing factors.
While the parts about China and India do not provide much value, I think the book offers a non-mainstream yet very enlightening perspective of the US economy. The supply and demand for dollar-denominated assets should be considered when we discuss fiscal and trade policies. However, it is not the only factor, as the book implies. Overall, I think the book should be treated as an opinion statement, rather than a systematic course on the world economy.

[Shana Yates · Rating 4 out of 5]

These six lectures make up a concise overview of the three major economies of the 21st century - China, India, and the United States. Professor Rodriguez introduces the reader to each country's recent economic history, compares those economies, and discusses how they interact. He completes this brief course looking toward the future when the US economy will slip from its dominant role, what that means for the world economy, and likely timing. The lectures are balanced and he stresses that there is no need to panic, that size alone is not the only important measure of economic health, and that globalization is not a zero sum game (meaning slipping from largest economy to second- or third-largest does not necessarily mean China or India will be more propserous, or that the all three countries and the world cannot see situations bettered). Interesting, though I could use a bit more depth on the topic.

[Terry Koressel · Rating 2 out of 5]

China, India and the United States is one of the few Great Courses to prove a disappointment to me. The reason: the course ended abruptly after a short six lectures leaving me with many unanswered questions and unexplored subtopics. The course only scratched the surface in exploring the dynamics of the World economy and the fast-evolving roles of the economic super-powers. One other note to potential listeners: This course was created in 2011, before the election of President Trump, his "America First" approach to governing and his highly aggressive trade war with China. This leaves the material a bit dated. On the positive side, Professor Rodriquez himself is knowledgeable and his material engaging. I enjoyed the lectures and the learning. He certainly piqued my interest. I'll be reading more on the subject. I recommend others do also, but not necessarily this Great Courses lecture series.

[Emma Pontzer · Rating 3 out of 5]

The Us is great on the world economic stage because it’s at the end of its pride. Just because it is no longer number one doesn’t mean it won’t be well off. It can shift in its focuses. It’s shifting out of manufacturing which can lead to improved quality of life. Accepting chinas future economic status makes sense. It was cool to listen to a more specific topic.

[Jerome · Rating 4 out of 5]

Must read for any one wanting to understand the future trajectory of the US economy relative to Asia, and the necessity for the US to return to a export driven, less Capital intensive, economy in the future

[Michael · Rating 3 out of 5]

Puts China’s economic rise in better perspective for me. Learning about India’s history and future challenges was very enlightening to me since I knew so little about it beforehand.

[Quinn · Rating 3 out of 5]

Not as amazingly informative as I was hoping. Too much material to cover in 12 hours. I did pick up a couple of gems, however, that earned this course three stars.

[Xujie8410 · Rating 3 out of 5]

好像没啥新意，普及了一些印度的常识。

[Steven · Rating 4 out of 5]

This is a short, well-informed, overview of the issues we read about.
I like his matter of fact approach and the lack of a doomsday outlook.

[Max Patiiuk · Rating 4 out of 5]

I was hesitant to check out how much information can a 3 hour book pack, but was pleasantly surprised - this was a nice analysis of the past few decades and a good summary

[Said · Rating 2 out of 5]

Extremely disappointing

I know Prof. Rodriguez is famous but this course was extremely disappointing and surprisingly shallow (and woefully outdated).

[Chuck · Rating 4 out of 5]

"China, India, and the United States - The Future of Economic Supremacy" is a series of 6 lectures given by Professor Peter Rodriguez, and published by Great Courses. The series was published in 2011. It provides an overview of the modern Chinese, Indian and United States economies and the challenges they face in the next few decades.

The series is designed for the interested layman. The series avoids technical language and economic technical analysis, in favor of plain spoken presentation of conclusions.

The series provides a short history of each economy and summary of each's strengths and weaknesses. Professor Rodriguez then provides a forecast on the challenges each is likely to encounter over the next few decades.

I found the series highly interesting, easily accessible, and very useful. His thoughts on the various bubbles the US economy has encountered over the last two decades were particularly enlightening. His 2011 predictions on the future of the Chinese economy seem right in line with the issues they are dealing with in August of 2015.

I would highly recommend this series to anyone who might be interested in current affairs, the world or US economy, or investing. I do think that in the next 5 years it would benefit from updating by the lecturer.

[Stef · Rating 4 out of 5]

good subject, well organised. short chapters.

[Trevor · Rating 4 out of 5]

I loved this but wish it had more depth. It's a super brief overview of relevant issues and explains why the US shouldn't fear the rise of China and India. Unfortunately, it's very high-level, so I didn't get to enjoy it more. I really, really wish this were longer.