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The Crash of '79

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The Crash of '79 is a book so real that its plot reads like today's headlines. The central figure is that world traveler, playboy, despot, and winter-sports enthusiast His Imperial Majesty the Shah of Iran, whose grandiose and megalomaniacal dreams, nurtured in secret and financed by oil money, engulf the lives of Erdman's characters, each of whom, unknowingly, is contributing to the event that will bring about the Crash of '79 and the demise of the industrial West.

Bill Hitchcock, the hero, is a successful banker, divorced skirt-chaser, confirmed cynic and financial genius. It is Hitchcock whom the Saudi Arabians pick to manage their vast hoard of accumulated oil profits and to fire a warning shot across the bows of the Western financial community. And no sooner has Hitchcock sat down at his desk in Riyadh than he learns just how precariously balanced the Western world's financial system really is.

Before long Hitchcock is wheeling and dealing at the highest levels of government, while pursuing Ursula Hartmann, beautiful Swiss daughter of one of the world's most distinguished nuclear scientists. Through her he becomes aware that the Saudi's, for all their oil and money, have a problem of their own - the Shah or Iran's ambition to control the entire Middle East and its precious oil...

350 pages, Paperback

First published October 1, 1976

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About the author

Paul Emil Erdman

33 books48 followers
Paul Emil Erdman was one of the leading business and financial writers in the United States who became known for writing novels based on monetary trends and historical facts concerning complex matters of international finance.

Erdman was born in Ontario, Canada, to American parents. He graduated from Georgetown University’s Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service. He received his PhD from the University of Basel (in Switzerland). In 1958 he worked as a financial analyst for the European Coal and Steel Community. Between 1959 and 1961, he worked as an economist at the Stanford Research Institute at Menlo Park.

Erdman returned to Switzerland where in 1965, he founded and was the president of a Swiss bank - the Salik Bank. In 1969, the United California Bank in California bought a majority stake and renamed it the United California Bank in Basel. The bank collapsed after taking large losses speculating in the cocoa market. Erdman and other board members were accused of fraud and Erdman spent time in jail awaiting trial.

While in jail, he wrote his first novel - The Billion Dollar Sure Thing (1973). It received a 1974 Edgar Award from the Mystery Writers of America for Best First Novel and was published in the UK as The Billion Dollar Killing. He was released on bail and fled from Switzerland. He was subsequently convicted in absentia. His second novel, the The Silver Bears (1974) was turned into a 1978 movie of the same name, starring Michael Caine. His books were well researched and contain convincing details. Despite the underlying complexity of his novels, his lucid writing style had enabled readers to learn complex concepts such as interest rate swaps, and his novels had often been bestsellers. The information in The Swiss Account is credited with providing a basis for helping track down the assets of Jewish victims of the holocaust.

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5 stars
122 (23%)
4 stars
170 (33%)
3 stars
158 (31%)
2 stars
43 (8%)
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16 (3%)
Displaying 1 - 30 of 45 reviews
39 reviews3 followers
June 14, 2011
I read this book back in 1977, on a flight to Iran on a large 747 owned by Iran air. Little did I know, at the time, that book had been banned, by the very country I was about to call home for the next two years. The book was fascinating and I was entrapped with it the entire flight over. As my husband (at the time) and I were departing the plane, someone told us about the ban. I was able to hide the book in my lingerie, and was extremely lucky to not get caught with it. I do not regret reading the book, or having the experience of living there. It was OVERWHELMING to find out just how close it came to be. I left Iran three days after the shah left, and was fortunate enough to escape before khome (?) came to be.
Profile Image for Nastaran Gheidarpour.
3 reviews1 follower
June 20, 2019
First glance at the book cover and I thought it was science fiction and '79 was the name of an aircraft that would crash on an undiscovered island, and the passengers would survive, and stuff like that. But, hell, no! It is what they call a "financial thriller".
It begins with Bill Hitchcock, a successful banker, who is now in his place in California in 1984, and he's "putting on paper an account of what really happened in 1979".
The story is primarily set in Saudi Arabia and Iran, with a mild touch of America, Switzerland, and some other countries. It was actually written in 1976 and was published in 1977, but it somehow predicts the crash of the entire world, especially the Middle East and the US, as a result of a chain of evil decisions.
This novel mostly revolves around finance, oil, politicians, and war, which might sort of slow you down, especially when it comes to numbers, calculations and some banking expressions. However, Erdman goes on with the plot so smoothly that at some point you think you are a middle-aged, retired banker reading your own diary!
Bill is hired by the Saudis to come to the rescue of their sinking ship of economy. And he goes for it rather passionately. Though he tries to sound cynic, he accepts it almost immediately, and continues the job till the very last minute. He meets different people and makes different moves that, all in all, pave the way for each of the steps he'd take next.
He is smart, but a little juvenile, if you ask me, when having extramarital affairs, though experienced in "the field" for more than 20 years or so. And now that he's divorced, the love he seeks for seems as childish. It happens too fast and too naively. So, don't expect a true romance here.
But, deeper into the story, what fascinated me was the allure of both Yamani, and the Shah of Iran. Their negotiation skills, their magnificent self-esteem and prudence. The power and wealth they were born in/with! However devilish, however fiendish, some people are born natural leaders.
But what really frightens me is the fact that how an individual can simply decide the destiny of a nation, or, at a larger scale, of the world, simply because he can!
I give this book 4/5 stars for it proved once again that politicians are like diapers, they must be changed often for the same reason.
At the end, I highly recommend it, especially if you are into this genre. It was worth every second I spent reading it.
Profile Image for Sanam.
97 reviews32 followers
February 15, 2020
هولی شط:) همین فقط.... :)
Profile Image for Aaron.
25 reviews2 followers
December 22, 2007
Had somehow never heard of Paul Erdman, 1970s master of "fi-fi," until I read his obit in the New York Times. Fi-fi, or financial thriller fiction, seems to be a lost art with much of the current crop dull as toast. Erdman's spare writing style and knowledge of the subject -- he was a former international banker -- suck you in. The Crash of '79 seems not only utterly plausible but maybe even more plausible today with the price of oil sky high again. Worth finding a used copy or getting from your local library.
Profile Image for Omid Milanifard.
391 reviews44 followers
June 9, 2019
داستان تخیلی جالبی بود که رگه هایی از واقعیت تاریخی را در خود داشت. آشنایی نویسنده با منطقه خاورمیانه و مناسبات سیاسی آن دوره زمانی جالب توجه بود.
Profile Image for Asif.
36 reviews11 followers
May 4, 2012
[A confession before I write review, I wish to admit that it kept lying on my shelf for about 1.5 years because I did not like the title. I thought this stuff had something to do with plane crash, until, I read back cover, last Saturday, when I was short listing novels to keep for my library. It lasted for three days, turned out well, as you will also witness in following lines – a good read but not for faint hearts]

The Crash of ’79 has everything from finance to banking, capital markets, foreign exchange, international politics, oil and war. At moments, it was overwhelmingly suppressing especially when Erdman dealt with oil price embargo and Middle Eastern money but in the later half story shifted to politics from finance which, although was an interesting part, but was not as captivating as first part. Nuclear weapons, war, seizure of oil fields and power clashes in one part of the world caused a financial havoc in other parts of the world which defined how closely we are correlated? And why peace, in all its forms, through out the world, is becoming necessary for survival? Balance of power on the other hand has also an important role to play as it prevents competing parties to play chicken. Most importantly, a sketch of financial model of western economies which Erdman drawn forced me to think for few minutes how far we are from complete financial meltdown? I could not come to a conclusion!

Meanwhile, between this, it had banking, capital markets, investments, forex and United States Dollar. As a banker it taught me two lessons (a) avoid asset mismatch and (b) never throw good money after bad. As a lay man I had three (a) avoid debt (b) never speculate and (c) equate power. This story has a lot to teach including financial history amid World War II. Writer commented on the nature of Swiss, Germans, Americans, British and Arabs. I also encountered Pakistan’s name twice but fortunately not for something we are famous for.

Over all, it is a good read although it becomes sketchy at end. Had politics not overcame finance it could have been an excellent one. Do you know what sequestership is? No, Shah of Iran even did not know! It was something that Americans did to Swiss in 1941 and Pakistan did to Americans in 1998. Yes, freezing all foreign accounts.

All finance lovers are recommended a read, but, don’t take it on your nerves otherwise there would be no landing. Barely a crash! Happy reading!
Profile Image for Henri Moreaux.
1,001 reviews33 followers
March 23, 2013
This book is primarily set in Saudi Arabia & Iran, although Switzerland, America & Europe also are featured. Written in 1976, and set in 1978-9 it is a little dated, the leader of Iran is the Shahanshah, Mohammad Rezā Shāh Pahlavī, so obviously it takes place in a world where there's been no Islamic Revolution, no Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, etc.

However if you're able to take this in your stride it is a gripping tale of high finance & international intrigue. At 350 pages it's a medium length novel, yet enthralling enough that I tackled it in one sitting without noticing the time passing.

The writing style could be classified as 'coarse' however I felt such fitted well with the narration by the cynical protagonist Bill Hitchcock and gave you a greater feeling of the character.

I'm looking forward to my next Paul Erdman read.
Profile Image for Daryoush Hesamzadeh.
2 reviews1 follower
July 23, 2019
علاوه بر رمانی سرگرم کننده, بسیار آموزنده بود و نشان میداد در دنیای امروز رجال سیاسی مزدوران سرمایه داران و بانکداران است. مشخص است نویسنده از اتاق های فکر آن روزگار باخبر بوده و شرایط بحرانی منطقه خاورمیانه را تا حدودی میشناخته است و صد البته که از بحران های اقتصادی و انرژی آمریکا باخبر بوده.
انتظار خواندن شاهکار نداشته باشید اما کتاب را از دست ندهید.
Profile Image for Ali Gh.
21 reviews1 follower
April 19, 2019
کتاب سقوط 79 یک کتاب داستانیست که به شرح اتفاقات دنیا در دهه 70 میلادی می پردازد. این کتاب جنبه خیالی دارد و از زبان یک بانکدار آمریکایی به نام بیل هیچکاک روایت می شود. داستان کتاب حول قضیه انرژی و کارتل های نفتی می چرخد. اینکه کنترل انرژی خاورمیانه باعث ایجاد تنازعات میان اعراب و ایران می شود و در نهایت رقابت بر سر کنترل انرژی باعث ایجاد جنگ میان ایران و عربستان می شود...
فارغ از خیالی بودن این کتاب، اساس کتاب بر یکسری گزاره هایی چیده شده بود که برخی از آنها درست و برخی زاییده ذهن نویسنده بود، برای نمونه، این گزاره که ثروت و پول منجر به قدرت می شود و همه برای کسب قدرت بیشتر حرص می زنند. مذاکراتی که در میان افراد پرقدرت و ثروتمند دنیا صورت می گیرد، زبانی متفاوت با زبان انسانهای عادی جامعه دارد و حجم پولی که آنها در معاملاتشان بر سر آن چانه می زنند کاملا متفاوت از تجربه یک آدم معمولی است.
نقش کارتلهای نفتی و بانکهای بزرگ نیویورکی در تعیین مسیر قدرت دنیا در این کتاب شرح داده شده که توانایی انجام هر کاری را در جهت منافع خودشان دارند، حتی ورشکست کردن یک کشور یا تعیین رئیس جمهور در کاخ سفید. سیاستهای سرمایه داری و امپریالیستی غرب در این کتاب واضحا به این تعبیر شده که جریانهای پشت سر آن با فریب مردم به حیات خود ادامه می دهند.
در یکی از مصاحبه های معروفی که شاه پس از انقلاب سال 57 انجام می دهد، کارتلهای نفتی را عامل سقوط خود می داند، این نظر او گرچه که تمام ماجرا را بیان نمی کند ولی به خاطر اتفاقاتی که در دهه 70 میلادی بر سر قیمت گذاری انرژی توسط ایران رخ می دهد، نمی توان این عامل را کم اهمیت پنداشت. بطور عینی این کتاب از قدرتی که ایران در سالهای منتهی به سال 79 میلادی در حوضه صنعت و ارتش بدست اورده بود سخن می راند و شاید داستانی که در این کتاب مطرح شده واقا عامل ترس غربیها از کنترل نفت خلیج فارس توسط ایران بوده باشد و وقایع سقوط و ... که توسط خود شاه مطرح شد به واقعیت خیلی نزدیک باشد.
در این کتاب شاه یک نابغه سیاسی و غربیها یکسری آدم خنگ و ساده لوح به تصویر کشیده شده اند در حالیکه این تصویرسازی کاملا اغراق آمیز هست.شاید برای کسیکه این کتاب را در دهه 70 میلادی بخواند خیلی جذاب باشد ولی برای من به ان اندازه جذابیت نداشت.
30 reviews
Read
June 1, 2016
This is what I love about goodreads, I was just drifting around in here (as I often do! My wishlist is probably several hundred strong my kindle wishlist is heading towards 500!) and I turned up this fella. I read this book in prison during my mis-spent youth. It was truly brilliant and led me too the same author's, Last Days of America which is actually one of my all time favs, for a man who reads as many books as me that is some statement. Let me qualify it by saying one of the best books I have ever read in the genre. I was reading a lot of Ludlum at the time, big books, big plots, passes the time. He is in my opinion the master of spy thrillers and the vast conspiracy with earth shattering consequences. This guy is fully comparable and I would very seriously recommend reading both the novels I have mentioned. if you like espionage and spy type thrillers with vast far reaching plots then this guys books are for you. My one concern is how dated they may have become. It's a common problem in this genre as many of its finest reads were written during the Cold War and even if they do not directly depend on the dynamic between the super powers they do require an understanding of the mindset of the period. I recently read the Aquitaine Progression (by Ludlum) and that was just as good and in some ways valid as the first time I read it, however I lived through the Cold War and as such have no difficulty comprehending the mindset. I wonder how younger people might handle such. If it wasn't the central political reality of their lives as it was ours I would imagine it might prove difficult to relate. To resolve my dilemma I intend to read both novels again and I shall update accordingly. I would be surprised if anyone really reads these reviews any case. I will endeavour to read these by the end of the summer, indeed I am looking forward to it. Yee Haa
Profile Image for Vahide.
11 reviews8 followers
October 1, 2009
خیلی وقت پیش این کتاب رو خوندم
داستان در حدود دهه هفتاد میلادی اتفاق می افته و در مورد یه بانکدار و در کل یه اقتصاددان آمریکایی هست که توسط دولت عربستان استخدام می شه و ماجراهایی که پیش میاد و در آخر دولت ایران با استخدام یه دانشمند سوئیسی و تولید بمب شیمیایی و حمله به عربستان باعث می شه دنیا و بخصوص منطقه خاورمیانه از نظر اقتصادی در سراشیبی سقوط قرار بگیره.
Profile Image for Liedzeit Liedzeit.
Author 1 book105 followers
January 30, 2018
This is one the few books that was recommended to me by some acquaintance that I really love. Wish I could remember the guy’s name. Had I read that 2 years earlier I think I would have started studying economics. Erdman not only writes fascinating, well-crafted thrillers, he manages to make subjects interesting that you thought were dull. Great guy, great book.
Profile Image for Patrick Peterson.
520 reviews306 followers
November 26, 2018
26 Nov. 2018 - I read this shortly after it came out, about 1980, and remember enjoying it for the "what if" economic scenario it drew. Dealt with the world oil market, gold, international politics, economics, etc.
Profile Image for Priyank.
16 reviews3 followers
June 4, 2013
My 2nd financial thriller. A captivating read. Re-read it in 2010 along with lot of other GFC books - sometimes reality is more bizarre than fiction
Profile Image for AmirHosein.
137 reviews44 followers
July 26, 2016
این کتاب پیشنهاد یکی از دوستان بود. هرچند تخیلی، اما جالب و قابل تأمل..
Profile Image for Gerald Kinro.
Author 3 books4 followers
February 20, 2012
I first read this book several decades ago. With the current economic crisis I had to do it again. A big player in Erdman’s crash is the Shah of Iran who is trying to build a nuclear arsenal of his own. Also involved are Italy’s approaching bankruptcy, Real Estate Investment Trusts (a form of mortgage-backed security), oil, and the finance and banking industries. Then war. Then the Shah gets deposed (or disposed of) in a way much different from how it actually happened. Then the crash.

Today, the dynamics of the Middle East has changed. Iran seeks nuclear power, but is under a different leader. Saddam Hussein is gone. Greece is in financial trouble. Mortgage-backed securities played a big part in the crash that actually happened over thirty years after Erdman published this work.

Erdman has a way of taking a seemingly boring subject, international banking and finance and making it into a real page turner. Using simple language he effectively explains financial concepts so that the reader can comprehend and enjoy the book. Despite its age, this story remains interesting, for much of the reasons for Erdman’s crash are still in play today.

22 reviews1 follower
August 11, 2014
I read this book ages ago and remember it read at break neck speed. My initial thoughts were, 'huh, finance' but it was really very intriguing and kept going, a bit like the DA Vinci code, just one of those books you had to finish, except this book had a better ending than the Da Vinci code.

The main character is somebody we would all like to be, a mover and shaker influencing the world stage but unseen and making a killing on the side. Descriptions of the other players such as the German banker really provoke the imagination and although cynical, has a delicious edge to all of it.

Just get the book and read it. It's great!
137 reviews
July 31, 2009
Paul Erdman was a financial thriller writer in the 70s and I remembered this book as setting out a wild premise about the demise of our financial systems. Given the world's current economic adventures I wanted to re-read it, so got an out-of-print copy from Amazon. While some of the circumstances have changed in ways Erdman could not forsee (the Shah of Iran, for example), overall it holds up awfully well and illustrates some forseeable issues about banking oversight and excesses. A quick read -- Erdman is to financial fiction roughly as Clancy is to espionage, except much more concise.
133 reviews1 follower
December 31, 2012
Paul Erdman died in April 2007. He was a Canadian, educated as a Lutheran minister but graduated university with a degree in international business. He opened a small American bank in Switzerland. The bank failed. The Swiss imprisioned him. He wrote this book while in jail. He retired to the US after his release.

Interesting to read this story decades after he wrote it. Prophetic; it's all happened in the late 20 and into the 21st century.
Profile Image for Peter Walt.
Author 6 books22 followers
March 20, 2019
Financial thrillers? Now that's something you don't see every day. And yet, Erdman was doing it way back when.

Fun pacing and good plots, this one concerning Saudi Arabia (back in the day) and a financial catastrophe that hits the world markets.

Dated slightly. Makes high finance accessible. Worth a read or two.
Profile Image for sanaz.
90 reviews188 followers
February 8, 2007
thats a wonderfull book, read it if not read it till now!!!
Profile Image for Eric.
66 reviews3 followers
January 5, 2008
یکی از جالبترین رمانهایی که خوندم و میتونم بگم من رو به خوندن معتاد کرد .... فوق العاده نوشته شده
6 reviews
April 4, 2008
عنوان فارسی "سقوط 79"
Profile Image for Karim Nas.
Author 2 books28 followers
October 31, 2015
Global financial chaos, grand military display of power, political scheming, larger-than-life characters, complex plot, and angry sex. Captivating till the end.
Profile Image for Reza.
6 reviews
Read
December 21, 2014
Alternative History has always been a fascinating subject for me. Thinking about some of the major historical incidents and contemplating on how the world today would be if any of those happened differently. The kind of the world we live in today would certainly have been much more different than how we know it.

What makes this book interesting is the fact that it was written in 1976 about the relations between Iran and the rest of the world. The kind of image that my country had in that period was substantially different from how it is portrayed in today's world. Erdman portends the creation of nuclear Iran in 1979 and the tensions that ensue. This serendipity of Erdman's Iran to the image that certain sources try to enforce on the public mind sounds interesting and telling.

I really wonder where my country would be standing today if any of what Erdman presents in his alternative history happened to be true. Unfortunately, the only thing that he predicted correctly was the Iran-Iraq war. However, Erdman's war lasted for only four days not eight years!
Profile Image for Mike Van Heusen.
17 reviews
April 1, 2024
Reading this book I felt as if the writer had a time machine and went into the future from 1976 when the book was written to 1984 and 2005. What freaked me out the most was finding the name of the Iranian president Mohammed Khatami, who rule in 2005, being named in the book as the Iranian Air Force commander. The characters and the events mentioned in the book did take place years after the fact. One of the events was an attack by the Iranian forces on Iraqi positions in the marshes area. Also mentioned in the book. The story, the build up everything spot on. I couldn't let go of the book until I finished it.
Profile Image for منوچهر محور.
325 reviews26 followers
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September 18, 2024
خیلی وقت پیش خوندمش. یادمه از شخصیت زن داستان خیلی بدم میومد، مال اون موقع‌هاست که شخصیت‌های ق��ه‌ها رو مثل آدمای واقعی جدی می‌گرفتم.
گویا چون نویسنده فروپاشی نظام شاهنشاهی ایران رو در یک واقعه تخیلی توصیف کرده، کتابش بعد از انقلاب معروف شده. در حد رمان عامه‌پسند برای نوجوانان می‌تونه جذاب باشه. الان دلم می‌خواد بهش یه ستاره بدم ولی حالا چه کاریه؟!۰
Profile Image for Sylvia03.
27 reviews20 followers
July 25, 2007
a tangling plot runs fast yet nicley flows..

surely a good read.

^^
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