I’m reviewing this 2011 book a decade later because, well, I just read it, but especially because it seems more relevant to a mainstream reader like me today, than it may have when first published.
I’ve admired Jeremy Rifkin’s rare style of deep thinking, big picture, social criticism over the years, but never read any of his books until just reading his 2019 “Green New Deal”. That book relied so heavily on this earlier work, that I felt the need to give it a go. Yes, it‘s pretty dull, though I have a pretty good tolerance of this sort of thing. I also chose to listen to the audiobook, which made it more tolerable. But yeah, it’s not a page turner. Still...
There are other great reviews of the Third Industrial Revolution, so I’ll just say that what Rifkin wrote then is largely coming to pass. The global economy is in the midst of a transformation — the “TIR” (many, many annoying abbreviations throughout this book) — a major shift away from the second industrial revolution of the late 19th/early 20th century. That was a fossil fueled, gasoline automobile-centric, telephone/broadcast radio/TV communications, centrally-controlled infrastructure. Obviously, that brought more problems in the long run, not the least of which is the existential climate crisis. So like it or not, we MUST move on to the Third Industrial Revolution.
The TIR will be powered by clean, renewable solar and wind, rely on all-electric power, transport, and heating and cooling; and that power will be distributed, but connected by the Internet of Things; communications and transactions will be increasingly internet-based (really already a thing, right?)
Europe and China were way ahead of this curve when Rifkin published the TIR in 2011, and that’s still true today. The United States was behind the curve then, and we’re even further behind today. It’s no secret that even our Second Industrial Revolution infrastructure is in horrific disrepair. And we still need much of that too, especially the electrical grid, many bridges and roads. (Yikes.) Historically, the U.S. has rarely been good at choosing a course, planning it out, and executing it, however, so perhaps we shouldn’t be too alarmed? If “the Green New Deal” term has any consistent meaning for all, it is its reference to the massive, nearly-spontaneous, government-funded infrastructure-building, job creation program of 1933-1941 for which it is named: The New Deal. But back to the TIR!
While the European Union and China adopted TIR back in the 2010s (in direct consultation with Rifkin — impressive!), the U.S. adoption of TIR is likely to take the form of a New Deal-type infrastructure program. And of course, Biden’s April 2021, $2 trillion infrastructure program has many Green New Dealish elements, though the new Administration has carefully avoided the GND label. So perhaps we’re finally on our way? We’ll see.
Two major learnings I didn’t anticipate: First, Rifkin believes that TIR is just a stepping stone to a new society. Once constructed by TIR, this new economy, much like the previous industrial revolution, will dramatically undermine the need for employment. However, Rifkin believes this new collaborative economy, guided by values of collaboration and ecological consciousness, will provide the long-promised possibility of greater leisure for all. Guaranteed income, anyone?
Second — and I was pleasantly surprised by Rifkin’s sociological wisdom here — TIR won’t come about in the U.S. without new stories that clearly project what the good society could be. Scientific reasoning is valuable, but that won’t sway hearts or minds. (And don’t we well know this?) We need to tell stories that embody the values and wisdom of this path, that capture the interest and attention of our neighbors, relatives, and friends.
I would add that since 2011, I have seen this happening here in my home state of New York, thanks to many, many community-based nonprofits working tirelessly to push state governments to legislate and fund their own TIR policies, build that TIR infrastructure piece by piece, and tell those new stories of what’s possible through a collaborative economy, with a more distributed, internet-connected power grid, fueled by clean, renewable solar and wind energy. While New York is certainly a leader among the states’ “laboratories of sustainability”, it is not alone.
Rifkin’s TIR and Green New Deal visions are provocative and prescient. As we begin to overcome the pandemic and its related economic disruption in 2021, Rifkin’s vision looks a lot more plausible and realistic. Long-building grassroots support for the values underlying a GND are finding some agency in Biden’s nascent Administration. Whether the federal government can embrace and move the nation along this course is anyone’s guess, but there doesn’t seem to be an alternative vision out there. And those community-based movers and shakers are not going away.