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Trading Bases: A Story About Wall Street, Gambling, and Baseball

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An ex-Wall Street trader improved on Moneyball 's famed sabermetrics to place bets that would beat the Vegas odds on Major League Baseball games--with a 41 percent return in his first year. Trading Bases explains how he did it.

After the fall of Lehman Brothers, Joe Peta needed a new employer. He found a new job in New York City but lost that, too, when an ambulance mowed him down as he crossed the street on foot. In search of a way to cheer himself up while he recuperated in a wheelchair, Peta started watching baseball again, as he had growing up. That's when inspiration hit: Why not apply his outstanding risk-analysis skills to improve on sabermetrics, the method made famous by Moneyball --and beat the only market in town, the Vegas betting line? Why not treat MLB like the S&P 500?

In Trading Bases , Peta shows how to subtract luck--in particular "cluster luck," as he puts it--from a team's statistics to best predict how it will perform in the next game and over the whole season. His baseball "hedge fund" returned an astounding 41 percent in 2011-- with daily volatility similar to funds he used to trade for. Peta takes readers to the ballpark in San Francisco, trading floors and baseball bars in New York, and sports books in Vegas, all while tracing the progress of his wagers. Far from writing a dry, do-it-yourself guidebook, Peta weaves a story that is often humorous, and occasionally touching; the topic may be "Big Data" but it's as entertaining as a Bill Simmons column. Trading Bases is all about the love of critical reasoning, trading cultures, risk management, and baseball. And not necessarily in that order.

384 pages, Hardcover

First published March 5, 2013

157 people are currently reading
1303 people want to read

About the author

Joe Peta

6 books21 followers
Raised in West Chester, PA by a first generation Italian-American father who adopted baseball as a symbol of his love of America, Joe Peta quickly learned the joy of following the sport --- and the pain of being a 1970s-era Phillies fan. Undaunted, by the time he was a teenager, Joe felt certain that his heroes Mike Schmidt, Larry Bowa, Steve Carlton, et al would one day be his co-workers.

While his father instilled a love of baseball in him, sadly, Joe inherited his mother's throwing arm, so by the time he was in college at Virginia Tech he turned his career ambitions toward the glamorous and fast-paced life of a Certified Public Accountant. His new heroes were men like Bill James and Warren Buffett and Joe parlayed his love of numbers into an MBA from Stanford University. Even in business school, sports were never far from his mind. At Stanford, Joe penned columns in The Stanford Daily and The Reporter that earned him a following in spite of constant references to Melrose Place, and his turning down the opportunity to interview campus golfer Tiger Woods.

His debut effort, Trading Bases, A Story About Wall Street, Gambling, and Baseball (Penguin Group) dropped in 2013 and topped best seller lists in both Baseball and Business categories. A Preview of the 2019 Masters published in 2019, contained a shockingly accurate preview of the event and was the #2 selling golf book of the year. Joe's latest effort, Moneyball for the Money Set was released in August, 2023.

Joe lives in San Francisco with his wife and two daughters, who would very much like his next book to either be about ballet or Taylor Swift.

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Displaying 1 - 30 of 105 reviews
448 reviews14 followers
April 30, 2013
One of my favorite books of late, and probably ever. The author, a trader by profession, spends a year betting on baseball (of which he is a lifelong fan) after losing his job post-financial-crisis. This memoir is a combination of his baseball betting strategy, his observations on Wall Street, and his ruminations on being a baseball fan (and how that was passed down from his father, and to his daughter)--I enjoyed all three.

Peta has a self-deprecating sense of humor, and surprisingly little ego--especially considering he worked in finance for so long; his footnotes are often quite funny. It's clear that he's quite sharp--he tells the story of, when he worked for Schwab, having the idea to compare the retail customer trades with those of institutional investors, and using this as the basis for a research note.

But the meat of this book is very compelling; he had several interesting observations:
--that baseball offers a better proposition for the better, since it uses different payouts rather than point spreads. With point spreads, as in football and basketball, late-game strategies often run counter to the team's interest (e.g. playing substitutes with a large lead) and can distort betting markets.
--that there is a different skill set in picking specific stocks (e.g. short AAPL and long MSFT) versus determining the broader market's direction, but that currently, a fund manager is responsible for both, despite these two components' requiring vastly different skill sets.
--that, despite trading being an analytical profession, there are surprisingly few analytics devoted to evaluating traders (I am an analyst, married to a trader, and would agree with this completely)
--that sports betting markets are surprisingly rudimentary, with limited volume. Some betting markets (on NFL teams' wins throughout the season, with evolving two-ways each week) sprung up on Wall Street, given the absence of these markets in Vegas or elsewhere.

As well, I have a soft spot for anyone who talks about baseball fan-dom being passed along from parent to child rather than father to son. Plus I will always have a special place in my heart for this book since I finished it as I started going into labor with my daughter!
Profile Image for John.
460 reviews5 followers
June 27, 2013
I really wanted to like this book. I feel like I should be the target audience for this book. I am a regular Baseball Prospectus reader, I have a good grasp on sabermetrics and I listen to the baseball betting shows on the Betting Dork podcast.

I guess the problem is that I wasn't. I know I'm not actually anywhere near as smart as Joe Peta, but I feel like if I was unemployed and housebound I could probably replicate what he did. So this was a less interesting book since the how-to aspect didn't really apply.

That said, I did enjoy the book, and Peta's wanderings into Wall Street discussions were more enjoyable than the baseball discussions. I learned more about Wall Street than baseball but I still didn't really connect. I did connect with Peta's stories about listening to Bruce Springsteen and playing with his daughter. For me that was the best part.

So if you're a baseball fan but not a super saber-nerd like me, you'll probably get a lot more out of this book than I did.
Profile Image for Biblio Files (takingadayoff).
609 reviews295 followers
February 28, 2013
If you're looking for a get-rich-quick book, this is not it. You'll need some money to start with and then you'll have to invest a lot of time and effort getting into the statistics that Joe Peta lays out in Trading Bases.

You have to give him credit -- usually when the blurb says "this book tells you how to do it," it's just a come on, but Trading Bases really gets into the weeds of baseball stats and Wall Street trading. As a former fan of baseball (it was all downhill for me after the 1974 World Series) and a more recent fan of day trading, I was ready to get into Peta's plan of action.

Peta has done his homework and then some. If you are obsessed with baseball and fascinated by trading and gambling and have both time and money to devote, he spells it out for you in a readable and congenial style. It's not a guaranteed path to wealth, but you can make sure the odds are in your favor before you place your bets.

1 review1 follower
March 13, 2013
In Trading Bases, Joe Peta gives the gift of valuable information, and loads of it.

If you have any interest in baseball and/or sports betting, this book is a must read. Peta breaks down the math and stats of baseball extensively while effectively weaving in compelling and relevant stories from Wall Street and his personal life. It reads like a combo of Liar's Poker and Moneyball -- two of the best books on Wall Street and baseball.

Peta displays a rare blend of storytelling ability, mathematical prowess, and baseball knowledge -- this is what makes Trading Bases such an entertaining read.
Profile Image for Hal.
670 reviews7 followers
April 27, 2013
Joe Peta a former wall street trader wrote this book about his development of a baseball betting strategy based on his experience as a trader. He claims success based on selecting wagers from an advantage based metrics type approach in essence as one would pick stocks and similar financial wagers.

I skipped through his chapter on the formulation of the strategy as it got a bit technical and wanted to get an overall impression of his wagering experience. I do not doubt he successfully implemented his strategy but for the average person to duplicate his results over the course of a baseball season would be a stretch.

Whether it be sports betting or investing the vagaries and changing conditions within the season or market climate usually calls for constant tweaking and reevaluating which a set formula is unlikely to perform consistently year in, year out. I may be wrong but that is my experience in similar endeavors.
Profile Image for Dave.
440 reviews
August 6, 2018
Back in 2011 the author developed a system for betting on baseball that was partially derived from his experience as a Wall Street trader. His success at this endeavor resulted in this book.

Peta writes well and refreshingly lacks the titanic ego of many of his Wall Street cohabitants. He explains his system so well that it made me want to give it a try.

The book is disjointed and jumps back and forth too much to be spectacular, but this was a very fun read for someone with interest in baseball and finance.
Profile Image for Len.
Author 1 book121 followers
June 5, 2013
I really enjoyed Trading Bases, for a number of reasons. First, as a baseball fan, author Joe Peta's love for the game was clearly evident and it's hard not to appreciate another baseball guy. Plus, we're pretty close in age so we both came of age during the same time period and for that reason our baseball memories are very similar. I am a sucker for a good baseball book and this is definitely a good baseball book.

Also, I have always had a sort of love/hate relationship with sports betting. I love betting but hate losing and I always lose! Learning how the sports book system works was eye opening and confirmed for me that I have no business waltzing into a sports book and plopping down cash on a whim unless I'm 100 percent ok with the fact that it is for pure entertainment and I'm most likely going to lose my money. That's good perspective for a casual sports bettor.

I really loved following Peta's logic around building his model and then adjusting it as the season wore on. I loved the little baseball stories sprinkled in. And I really loved his fantastic sense of humor. I found myself anticipating how his stories would turn out based on our common knowledge of baseball and pop culture. Pure joy.

My only issue, and this is my issue not his, is that I am so bad with numbers and have such a poor understanding of the stock market and finances in general that much of his explanation of the market went right over my head. I've never been a numbers guy, and that's one reason I never cared much about Sabermetrics, but I have to admit I learned a ton listening to the book and even have some respect now for stats like WAR and OPS. Consider that a win Mr. Peta!

Anyway, Trading Bases is a great read for any baseball fan or any gambling fan. It's even really interesting from a finance perspective and anyone who is interested in how hedge funds work or in the culture of Wall Street will enjoy his Wall Street stories. If you love baseball, gambling and the market, well, this could be your Moby Dick.
157 reviews1 follower
Read
February 7, 2016
This was a fun read. Amazingly, despite being a Wall Street trader, Joe Peta comes off as very likable. Still an aggressive type-A, who I probably wouldn't be friends with in real life, but as he talks about his love for baseball and its links with memory and family, its hard not to relate to him. Also, his passion for Bruce Springsteen's Born to Run album brought me close to tears. But none of that is what this book is about. This book is about one man's plan to use Sabermetrics to exploit the deficiencies in the odds Vegas sports books put on baseball games to make money. Peta's idea of approaching it like an investment fund was an oddly natural fit, and I think I learned way more about the world of finance from this book than I did in Mrs. Bennett's economics class senior year. I'm no expert in the world of money, and I'm not a Sabermetics disciple, but this book used baseball to trick me into learning something about economics and financial management. I'm impressed, Mr. Peta, very impressed.
219 reviews5 followers
February 22, 2016
Really fun and interesting read for anyone who bets on sports. His system for predicting season win totals was not very complicated, but well reasoned and explained. The move to single game betting during the season seemed a lot more shaky to me. I couldn't believe he would place bets on 80%+ of games on a daily basis (including ones with a perceived edge of tenths of a percent). No system is good enough to justify placing that many bets. The tie-in to his history on Wall Street worked surprisingly well too. There are good arguments for how that experience could transfer to betting (he essentially equivocates buying and selling assets to betting on or against teams). I don't think the idea of a baseball betting hedge fund toward the end made much sense, but overall it's a recommended read for baseball stat geeks and/or gamblers.
Profile Image for Turney Duff.
Author 3 books98 followers
March 27, 2013
GREAT READ... I'm an average baseball fan, occasionally gamble and don't really consider myself a numbers guy... But this book was perfect for me. The narrative drives the story while I learned so much about CLUSTER LUCK, logic, baseball, pop culture, trading and LIFE... And the beauty of this read is it stays with you after you read it. I took the book with me on vacation for 4 days and even when I wasn't reading it - I was still thinking about it. Bring this book to the beach!

I hope to see much more from Peta along the way. I receive his email/newsletter and look forward to all of his updates.

Buy the book...
Profile Image for Marc Gunther.
4 reviews3 followers
March 28, 2013
A former trader at Lehman Brothers, Joe Peta was sidelined by an auto accident early in 2011. Confined to bed, he rekindled his love for baseball, and devised a system that, he thought, would enable him to make money betting on ballgames during the 2011 season. How he came up with his model--and how he fared--forms the narrative of Trading Bases. He's a decent writer, not great, and, oddly, saves some of his best lines for the footnotes. I liked this book but that's mostly because I love baseball and its advanced statistics. You can check out Peta's blog at http://tradingbases.squarespace.com/. If you love the blog, you'll like the book.
Profile Image for Ray.
112 reviews3 followers
July 26, 2013
The author uses sabermetrics to try and beat the odds makers for betting on baseball. He created a mathematical model and used it for the 2011 baseball season. He tries to show how baseball betting is like investing in the financial markets since his job was as a financial analyst on Wall Street before he was fired because he got into an accident and had an extensive rehab. He also displays a love of the sport when he grew up as a Phillies fan. It has many fascinating insights using sabermetrics and if you don't want to bet on the game at least you may understand it better after reading this book.
Profile Image for Elliot Chalom.
373 reviews20 followers
October 27, 2015
Trading Bases appealed to me because I happen to be interested in all three of Peta’s topics, but I wonder how small of a niche readership that is. If you’re in that niche, I recommend this book – it’s a light read, not too heavy on the technical details (but not entirely devoid of them either) with some pretty neat insights. And if you’re not, lament the fact that Peta didn’t enlist a writer better than himself to tell what is actually an interesting tale. Trading Bases is a good book, but it won’t captivate you or pique your curiosity to learn more the way a book like Moneyball does.

Read my full review over at: http://2bitmonkey.wordpress.com/2013/...
Profile Image for Al.
1,658 reviews57 followers
June 23, 2013
It's rare to find a "one-off" book like this one which is instructive, entertaining and well-paced. Although the reason for the book could be explained in one well-written article, one doesn't mind that Mr. Peta has blown his idea up into a book because his additional material is so interesting. The mechanics of his baseball betting system are complicated (he doesn't need to worry about competition, I think), but the concept is simple. What lifts the book are his stories and insights into stock trading, and his personal anecdotes.
Profile Image for Cecilia.
24 reviews11 followers
August 11, 2014
I'm not a baseball aficionado so I didn't get all the discussions around the game and the sabermetrics, but Peta is good at explaining and walking through his logics, enough to captivate someone like me with a superficial understanding of the game. I was more interested in his stories as an ex-Wall Street banker; although the majority of the book was dedicated to baseball analytics, it was fascinating to hear how he applied finance logic (risk and portfolio management) to sports betting.
Profile Image for Phil Simon.
Author 28 books101 followers
September 24, 2014
I enjoyed the premise of the book and Peta writes in a funny style. The man knows how to tell a good story and I laughed out loud more than once.

He went pretty quickly through the section on derivatives; he should either have omitted it or explained it better. I do wish that the author had updated us on his status. I hope that he writes more books.
Profile Image for Douglas Cosby.
607 reviews3 followers
May 21, 2014
I ate this book up. A former Wall Street trader turned Sabremetric baseball gambler who gives you the details of his model and quotes Bruce Springsteen songs along the way. Almost the definition of my perfect book. Add Nabokov or Updike as a ghost writer and you would have perfection.
Profile Image for Ivan Barona.
8 reviews
December 10, 2018
Already one of 2018 top!!! It’s like Michael Lewis’ “Moneyball, Liar’s poker, and Home game”, meet Michael Mauboussin’s “The Success Equation” and Ed Thorpe’s “A Man For All Markets” with a dash of Taleb’s wit. Loved it!
👏🏼
Profile Image for Wilte.
1,163 reviews24 followers
April 20, 2014


Prefer the lumpy 15% to the smooth 12%
1,106 reviews8 followers
April 12, 2014
if you like numbers or baseball or gambling or wall street, you will enjoy this book.
Profile Image for Tom Stamper.
661 reviews38 followers
May 15, 2014
It's the story of a Wall Street hedge fund trader that used sabermetrics to find inefficiencies in the baseball sports book. If you know what that sentence means you should enjoy the book.

43 reviews
June 12, 2014
Intriguing book not sure I understand all the gambling jargon, but cool how he used his business practice into his love of baseball.

Profile Image for Ryan Ard.
292 reviews
December 3, 2014
An entertaining and informative book. While some of the formulas were over my head the author kept my attention with well-written stories and lessons.
1 review
January 21, 2015
Good book. A unique blend of Finance, Baseball and Statistics. Well written, with some good humour.
Recommend to any true baseball fan!
Profile Image for John Snow.
18 reviews4 followers
Read
March 27, 2015
good read if you are a baseball fan

Good read. There were some pretty complicated parts but I thought the author did a great job of explaining them and adding a lot of fun stories.
123 reviews
August 27, 2024
I'm sure this was groundbreaking at the time, but yes - if you've been hit by an ambulance and have the entire spring to build a model to predict baseball games so you can make money betting after you get laid off from your job as a stock broker, go for it. I'm sure Vegas is much better at setting betting lines in 2024 than they were in 2011, and they'd better be given the astronomical increase in sports betting over the last few years. Like poker before it, there are places for Nate Silver, Joe Peta, and other smart modeling people to make money. Then those gaps are closed and you have to find a new place to make easy money.

I'll save my usual rant about how sabremetrics have ruined baseball and turned it into an orchestrated launch angle and strike out parade. Make baseball players play BASEBALL - in the field and with the bat. Put the ball in play and make the players field their position. I mean, have you watched major league outfielders try to play a carom off the wall this millennium?

At the end of the day, we can have debates like this because we are baseball people and there are no right answers. We all live and die with the team of our choice. And yes we hate the Cardinals and the White Sox and the Yankees, but we are also friends with Cardinals fans because first and foremost they're baseball people. I enjoy reading books by people who are first and foremost baseball people, even if they had the misfortune of growing up as a fan of the Philadelphia Phillies.
173 reviews1 follower
December 18, 2023
Given its 2011 publishing date I don’t want to dock points but the sabermetric analysis here is pretty basic. I’d say any modern Fangraphs reader (ie baseball nerd) will already know this stuff and end up skimming. The stuff on betting, odds-making, Wall Street, and finances was much more interesting to me. It helps it was filtered through the nostalgic names of every fantasy baseball player I owned in college but it stands on its own as a mini Biggest Short meets Moneyball.

The rest of this is a combination of autobiography and barroom what-ifs the author uses as examples for his math. You can tell the author is really exciting to be writing this but the book he *wanted* to write is in the footnotes. He comes across as a slightly obnoxious (and possibly sexist) finance-bro, borrowing plenty from the Bill Simmons’ handbook of self-centeredness and incessant (and dated) pop culture references. Not book-ruining and I don’t think he’s a bad dude (I probably work with 200 versions of him) but eventually I ditched the inner monologue footnotes and stuck to the baseball and finance and whatever else he deemed important enough to put in the center of the page and not in the footnotes. Since I work in finance, love baseball, and recently got more interested in investing this appealed to my sensibilities and I sped through it with moderate expectations.
Displaying 1 - 30 of 105 reviews

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