Pendulum: How Past Generations Shape Our Present and Predict Our Future: PDF Included

by Roy H. Williams, Michael R. Drew

Politics, manners, humor, sexuality, wealth, even our definitions of success are periodically renegotiated based on the new values society chooses to use as a lens to judge what is acceptable.Are these new values randomly chosen or is there a pattern? Pendulum chronicles the stuttering history of western society; that endless back-and-forth swing between one excess and another, always reminded of what we left behind.There is a pattern and it is forty 2003 was a fulcrum year, as was 1963, its opposite.Pendulum explains where we have been as a society, how we got here, and where we are headed. If you would benefit from a peek into the future, you would do well to listen to this book.

Genres: History, Nonfiction, Politics, Sociology, Business, Book Club, Audiobook

MP3 CD

First published February 28, 2012

Reviews

[Thomas Jr. · Rating 5 out of 5]

I would say this may be the second best book I have read this year. I can't stop thinking about it. Everything makes more sense now.

[Kytka Hilmar-Jezek · Rating 5 out of 5]

The way this book breaks down trends and movements into predictable cycles is amazing and really helps the reader understand why things are the way they are. I loved this book and subsequently explored the product as well and was very happy with both. No one else is talking about these cycles, and more importantly, how we can use the understanding of them to grow our business, rethink our marketing strategy and build our brand around true customer service. A winner of a book, highly recommended!

[Chris · Rating 4 out of 5]

This book makes some pretty far-reaching and bold statements about mankind and societies in the present, past, and future. Because of this, it's easy to look at Pendulum's conclusions with a skeptical, even cynical eye. But as the book's argument unfolds, it becomes clear that the book's conclusions aren't arrived at hastily. Rather, they are a result of years of study, re-study, and testing.

As with any book that is grounded in a "soft-science" like sociology, there will be many who ridicule Pendulum and will offer up an example or two that directly contradict the book's theories. Those people will be correct in their examples, but also will have completely missed the point of the book. Pendulum offers a "3,000 feet in the air" look at the world and offeres broad conclusions about society as a whole. If you read the book with that in mind, you'll come away with tremendous insight.

Individuals in marketing and advertising in particular should read this book. It will help inform and guide the marketing you do today and in the future.

[Kelly Wagner · Rating 2 out of 5]

A shallow and superficial piece of pop sociology; Herbert Spencer writ small and cheap. He says at the beginning that he realized the talk and power point presentation he's been giving on his idea of 40 year cycles was too US-centric and last-150-years-centric, so he's going to go big and find proof of his idea from world history and 3000 years. He then proceeds to talk almost entirely about the US in the past 100 years, spending maybe a total of 7 pages of the whole book on the rest of the world and the rest of history. And oh, how he tortures dates and picks and chooses his examples to make everything neatly fit! He manages to assign deep reflections of our cultural trends to the lyrics of pop songs - including taking "Louie, Louie" seriously. Oh, and he wastes quite a few pages with a separate table of contents for every chapter, which he calls a "Pendulum Legend" - a heading and 4 lines of absolutely unnecessary text, before rolling into the chapters where he repeats the same graph over and over and over and over... the only way someone could take this at all seriously was if they had never read any other history books or founding texts of sociology (such as Spencer). Waste of the trees it killed.

[Carolina Lively Griffith · Rating 4 out of 5]

Very thought-provoking.

As a novice observer of history I find the historical examples in relation to the "Me" and "We" cycles to be spot on. Well researched and presented in an compelling manner makes for a quick and enjoyable read.

[Casey · Rating 2 out of 5]

As a matter of disclosure I received a copy of this book to review as a core reviewer for the 12 Books Group. The expectation is that I will participate in the discussion on Goodreads and post my review on Amazon, Goodreads, my blog and other pages.

I am always leery of a book where the number of endorsement pages vastly outnumbers the number of note pages for the chapters and the index for the book. Unfortunately, this book by Roy H. Williams and Michael R. Drew lived down to my expectations.

The premise of the book is that history repeats itself (not a new concept) by swinging like a pendulum (fairly new approach) on an approximate 40 year cycle arching between We and Me. Among the weaknesses in the book is the author admitting that he had been making presentations on this approach with the focus being on the United States. One of the purposes of the book was to broaden it to a worldwide analysis. Sadly, the focus of the book is still overwhelmingly the United States.

Another weakness of the book is the inconsistency in the use of data to support the premise. As an example, the authors use songs from certain time periods to support their ideas. In some cases they are the top five songs of a year, in others just the top song for a year and still in others just random popular songs during a given year. In additon, I found there choice of what songs in a top 100 were Rock and Roll and those that weren't intersting as they skipped over Rock and Roll songs (designated as non-Rock and Roll) because the lyrics don't support their theory.

Another weakness was that it was to cover 3,000 years of history at a 3,000 foot level, but focused primarily on the last 100 years at a 3 foot level. Finally, the authors have a penchant for qouting themselves throughout the book (something else I find annoying - I know that they wrote the book).

You will enjoy this book if you don't pay attention to the preface, are unfamiliar with the time periods and facts used as support for the authors premise and a looking for a once over lightly book on the fact that history repeats itself.

[Nick · Rating 3 out of 5]

Williams and Drew make the following argument: history goes in 40-year cycles, each with a 20-year upswing and a 20-year downswing contained in it. First, there’s a “Me” cycle, then a “We” cycle. Me cycles demand freedom of expression, applaud personal liberty, believe in the individual, look for a better life, dream big dreams, need to be number one, likes decisiveness, leadership, and heroes. We cycles demand conformity, applaud personal responsibility, believe in the herd, want a better world, small actions, teams, humility, and sense of purpose and joint leadership sharing problems together. We’re in the midst of the upswing of the We cycle now, the authors argue, until 2023, whence will commence the down cycle of We….

What’s in it for public speakers? People change, so don’t market to generations, market to the cycle. You should be pitching your speeches to cater to a We cycle now, because we’re in the middle of it. You might argue that the whole motive behind TED, for example, is the We idea of trying to make the world a better place.

As the authors say, what works during a Me cycle is push, overcoming objections, selling as combat, self-confidence, specials, and sizzle. What works during a We cycle is pull, positive attraction, selling as seduction, authenticity, truth, and the steak not the sizzle.

The book itself is a difficult read, because all the typographic efforts to make it interesting just make it hard to get through. But the idea is at least worth pondering.

[Daniel Cunningham · Rating 2 out of 5]

I'm a sucker for books that propose/explore historical cycles. This book does that... but really, really, really badly. That said, there is *something* to what they say; I do feel like they have not-quite-put-their-finger on a real cycle. Or an aspect of it. (This is reminiscent of Turchin's Fathers-and-Sons cycle of pre-industrial conflict.) But their "evidence" is... ludicrous. Their presentation more than annoying (books are not PowerPoint presentations!) Their extension of the (possibly real) cyclical pattern they've noticed to Biblical times, to ancient Greece, Rome, the Persians... India, China... WTF-laughable.

This would have been far (*far*) better if they had just stuck to the last 150+ or 200 years of American history, maybe with a little Western Europe (maybe?). I think they went for the glory ("we've discovered a world-historical pattern!" vs "we've discovered a limited, contingent, approximate pattern!") to their great loss. Two stars for the something-something they are getting at, and probably -500 stars for everything else.

[D.W. Koons · Rating 5 out of 5]

This is a fascinating analysis of over 3000 years of cultural trends, and Williams does a great job showing how the Western culture oscillates every 80 years between extremes of being "me" focused (a "zenith" in the early 80's) and "we" focused (as seen in the McCarthy years, and we are coming into that era as we speak). I recommend you read this book if nothing else than to be sensitive to the trends in society that can lead to the extremes (with the hope of minimizing them) as well as being aware that the East and West are on opposite cycles. Good reading!

[Alan Marchant · Rating 1 out of 5]

Roy Williams proposes that the collective psyche of societies oscillate along a single axis between collective commitment and individualism. This is not an original thought - see Anthony Burgess, The Wanting Seed. But Williams takes this further, claiming that the cycle has a precise period, 40 years between extremes. In the preface, Williams promises to skeptically challenge his own hypothesis. But the only thing rigorous about this small book is its adherence to the anecdotal method.

[Jamie · Rating 5 out of 5]

With the world being the way it is, and seemingly getting stranger by the day, this book has helped me understand why. The authors have done a great job at explaining the different cycles that society goes through and what we should expect during those cycles. I no longer fear the future as much as I used to because of it. In addition, knowing what to expect has lead me think of things to do to help stop (or even soften) the blows that will come.

[charles a. Landrum · Rating 5 out of 5]

What a fantastic book!

I heard this book recommended in a YouTube video so I decide to buy it. What a fantastic read. It is thought provoking and cause you to be more aware of the culture in which we are currently residing. Overall fantastic!

[Teri Shapiro · Rating 5 out of 5]

Felt a need to re-read this. Always enlightening.

[Tyler · Rating 5 out of 5]

Makes you want to analyze history more and see parallel movements to predict the direction of our society. Paradigm shifting.

[Al Doyle · Rating 3 out of 5]

This book popped up on "to read" quite by surprise. I actually read this book within days of its publication, following attending a seminar in San Francisco conducted by its nominal author, Roy H. Williams. Williams is an inveterate self-promoter and pontificator and really sucks in followers who look on him as somewhat of a Guru. I look at Williams like a really bright, mercurial and verbose consultant who occasionally spouts some ground-breaking insights. He's entertaining and lyrical. This book gives his team's observations on changing takes, lifestyles, and foibles of the recent and coming generations that can be of benefit to communicators and marketers. I loved his observation and immediately put them to work. That's the key with Williams work... listen to him... gather the pearls, but if think he's offering you the latest flavor of Kool-Aid.... tell him you'd prefer aged, tried and true bourbon.

[Munesh Chauhan · Rating 2 out of 5]

Nothing much to say. The book is about the history of "We" and "Me" epochs that circulate one another every four decades. Well, the idea is great but I have big doubts. As it mentions that when it is "We" in the western world, then there is a "Me" in the east. The author's do not explain why exactly it is so.

Again such rules do not apply to politics, which somehow is odd to accept.

[Mike Klem · Rating 5 out of 5]

One of the most important books I have ever read. History repeats itself every 80 years and this book proves it through many examples. Highly recommend!!

[Nate Billy · Rating 1 out of 5]

Very poorly researched. As an amateur music historian I can point out several mistakes off the top of my head -- as well as several exclusions.
For example:
1938 - Artie Shaw's "Begin the Beguine" is the #1 song. That's correct, but then the book goes on to quote lyrics from the song, yet Shaw's #1 version had no lyrics. In fact earlier versions (there is a few from 1935 and onward) had been recorded with lyrics but weren't hits; thus quoting the lyrics to illustrate a point is...well...useless.
Same thing goes for Glenn Miller's 1940 #1 version of "In the Mood". His version(s) = no lyrics. To this day everyone knows the song, but no one can recite a single lyric from it. So, yes, the composition had lyrics, yet versions released with lyrics weren't nearly as big of hits.

Another chapter illustrates Rock 'n' Roll taking over as the new popular music. The problem? The authors go simply on their own personal opinions of what songs are considered Rock 'n' Roll.
For example: The Chordettes' "Lollipop" - They call it Rock 'n' Roll -- it is NOT Rock 'n' Roll. This song (and band) has more traits in common with the Andrew Sisters than Elvis Presley, Chuck Berry, or Eddie Cochran.
Speaking of Eddie Cochran, they didn't mark his song "Summertime Blues" as rock, yet mark his "Com'n Everybody" as such. These two songs are almost identical as far as chords, rhythm, etc.
The list of mistakes that they've made gos on, but the one that infuriated me most is the exclusion of Link Wray's "Rumble" -- one of the most important songs in Rock 'n' Roll history. As wikipedia states: "'Rumble' utilized the techniques of distortion and feedback, then largely unexplored in rock and roll. The piece is one of very few instrumental singles banned from the radio airwaves. It is also one of the first tunes to use the power chord, the "major modus operandi of [the] modern rock guitarist". In other words, "Rumble" set the tone of what Rock 'n' Roll would sound like for decades to come.
I could go on, but you get the point. No theory is sound without proof, and most of their proof is significantly under-researched.

[Tony Smith · Rating 1 out of 5]

Pendulum: How Past Generations Shape Our Present and Predict Our Future is a poorly written "historical" book. Within this work, Williams and Drew attempt to make a constructive argument on generational trends, but it is more of a haphazard collection of charts, quotes and lists. Having little structure, the authors historical points are weak, limited and, in my opinion, lacking clarity.

This book reinvents how generational trends influence a culture and is not a new to most historians. I would recommend a number of other books on this subject - including one referenced on PAGE 8 within Pendulum: How Past Generations Shape Our Present and Predict Our Future.

I would give this a 0.5 star, but Good Reads requires a 1 star minimum.

In summary – I do not like this book and DO NOT RECOMMEND BUYING THIS BOOK.

[John W Burge · Rating 2 out of 5]

Overlong, overused, and overplayed, this book could have made its point in 1/4 of the length. While the pendulum concept is instructive, and the authors do make some prescient predictions (as well as completely misguided ones), this book looks like something compiled from a number of shorter blog-post-length sources in an attempt to sell a full-length book. Dozens of pages have filler content and graphs that aren't needed. Projecting the pendulum concept back over 3000 years of Western Civilization is fraught with difficulty. Overall the authors have an instructive point that has its uses, but I found it to mostly get lost in the attempt to put it together in a marketable and historically dubious package.

[Amber · Rating 4 out of 5]

Very interesting

[Cat Rayne · Rating 4 out of 5]

Pendulum: How Past Generations Shape Our Present was written as a marketing theory, how to capture current values and recognize societal shifts that work off a pendulum of WE to ME in forty year shifts.

The authors take you on a ride through 3000 years of history. Their research denotes patterns to support the idea that swaths of society flows in constant transition mode from the WE to ME cycles as explained in the book.

First read in 2013, the book did seem a fresh look at how society changes and embraces a path until overreach swings it back. A reread in 2022 did not hold the same fascination, but could agree society is at a fulcrum where it will soon pivot.

The authors don’t take themselves seriously and lay no claim to scientific research. They did present a clever look at patterns in history, while adding there are (always) exceptions, to beware the zealot logic, and each full swing of WE and ME possesses “sparkling goodness with a dark underbelly.”

When the book was published in 2012 the authors held predictions for 2013-2023 where, pursuant to their research the WE will begin a descent, having overreached and shown the “dark underbelly.”

The authors state in the Zenith of “WE” ( 2013-2033) that self-definition is no longer who you include or what stand for and is instead a function of exclusion: who you exclude and what you stand against. In the insanity of the cancel culture and entrenched tribal nature of politics in 2022, this was prophetic. They go on to state “the easiest people to manipulate are those focused in a single issue. Be forcefully against whatever they’re against and you can lead them around like a tame calf on a rope. You can’t have insiders without outsiders.”

Sounds eerily current in 2022.

And it doesn’t look pretty as we begin the downward shift as a time of demonizing and fear-soaked words, of Machiavellian tendencies.

These points give the book credence, but then when asked if the growth of the internet affects the Pendulum they say no as intellect and information do not drive it, it is the “agricultural pace” of the human heart that does. So when it is suggested that the instantaneous worldwide communication could help us mitigate the negativity and soften the viciousness of the next twenty (2013-2033) we now in the middle of that time frame need only point to social media and see failure in that statement.

The book is worth it for pattern seekers and history buffs. It’s not written like an academic treatise so is easy to consume and will provoke thought. As in the ten years since my first read , you will see shifts and note trends differently.

Pity the book gets pegged as a business/marketing tool. It is far more.

[Jonathan · Rating 4 out of 5]

This book sets forth to defend a staggeringly enormous idea of such stunning simplicity that it gives the reader considerable pause... An 80 year cycle that explains the course of events through all of human history? "Big if true" indeed. And though one can't help but wonder if an equally compelling book could be written with an exactly opposite perspective, flipping the ends of the cycle and cherry-picking events to support it, the message lingers in your mind, egging you, daring you to doubt it's alluring lying simple claims.

The message of the book can be grasped within the first few pages, and the book simply exists to provide evidence for these extraordinary claims. Nevertheless, I have found myself thinking about this books message nonstop since picking it up, and finding time and again that yes, that historical event seems to fit, or oh yes, that could have gone differently if it took place at a different part of the cycle. And as it was written in 2012,it is eerie how today's society reflects the warnings the authors saw as inevitable consequences of the current state of affairs.

Whether you ultimately decide to agree to the claims made or not, this book has the power to shake up your view of the world and give you entirely new perspectives on the society we live in today, as well as the likely changes we will see in our lifetime.

Remarkable.

[Joshua Castleman · Rating 3 out of 5]

To quickly sum up the book, Pendulum unpacks the idea that civilizations swing from a Me focus to a We focus every 40 years. An interesting concept that clearly has some truth to it. Some of the proofs throughout history, as the opposing zeniths are traced, have a clear through-line. Written nearly a decade ago, some of their warnings for what we're going through right now are eerily accurate. Some of their predictions for the next decade or two are things I've started to see as coming over the horizon.

But most of this book is instructive, and not really meant for predictions--especially nothing specific. The whole idea is built on large-scale changes and attitudes.

As a book club book, it provided a ton of great discussion and questions to chew on. I feel many of us found various flaws in how the material was presented as well as with some of the proofs, and how the authors had to stretch things a bit to get the theory to stick going back 3000 years. In the past few centuries though, it works much better. We also found ways they probably could have tightened things up or better defined some parameters. Overall, it could have been significantly shorter, but it was still a fascinating and illuminating look at civilizational swings, and why certain ideologies and attitudes end up popular or not as decades roll by.

[Dena Napoli · Rating 5 out of 5]

Fascinating and easy read. History does have a cycle and the more you know about our history, the more prepared you will be for what comes next. The next decade is going to be wild and bad as we enter the end of a WE cycle in which we historically become self righteous, judgmental, and legalistic. To give perspective the last cycle of the end of the WE, gave rise to McCarthyism 1943, Hitler and the holocaust 1933-45 and Stalin and the Great Purge 1936-1938. These events happened without aid of social media which I think explains how we are all globally experiencing the same swing of the pendulum. We’re too connected and parasitic mind viruses spread like wild fire.

I wish more people would read history. If enough of us are aware of this trend toward self righteous, judgmental, and legalism we could resist demonizing each other and avoid the polarization that results from it. Sadly, I think this is unavoidable. Brace yourselves and turn to God.

[Sandra · Rating 3 out of 5]

The content was amazing and second to none. It's the type of concepts and trends that I think we naturally obsess over as humans but it's all put into one place to compare and analyze.

However, these guys took liberties with their formatting and I found it hard to follow between paragraphs to block quotes to tables to differing headers throughout. They also never gave a solid pendulum with all the things that happen at different places. For example, I'd like to know when alpha voices appear for each but I know it's offset by music and then we have upswings and down.

So yea, great content, rough reading. I really wish they would do an updated version in 2023 as that is when their predictions ended in this edition.

[Jake Stoddard · Rating 4 out of 5]

A fascinating look at the 80-year cycle of society. The book examines western (particularly American) culture in relative detail from about 1920-2010 and highlights 3,000 years of western civilization in 40-year increments. Eastern society is also touched on from time to time.

As you might imagine, it covers a lot of material. I had to rewind the audio and re-listen to certain parts to absorb what was being said.

Some of their examples fell flat for me, but most were compelling.

After reading this book, I feel I have a better understanding of the world I live in. Now, I have a new lens I can look at things through.

[Greg Camp · Rating 1 out of 5]

After reading this book I found myself happy that it was over and disappointed that I spent time finishing it. The writing isn't terrible but is very lackluster. I'm guessing that this was written by an inexperienced author without proper writing training/classes. The author seems to be enthusiastic about the subject but lacks the persuasion, writing, ideas, and facts to present a thorough argument. I am glad that I received a free promo copy. I would not suggest reading this book, spend your time and money elsewhere.

[Joseph · Rating 3 out of 5]

This is an interesting framework that I'll probably have in the back of my mind for a while, but it follows two forty year cycles to the exact year. That is just too wooden for me.

I agree that culture swings back and forth between extremes. I'm just not convinced that its pendulum follows as rigid of a path as this book suggests.

[Bambi Kline · Rating 3 out of 5]

Comprehending was a little tough, I had to read a few sections twice to fully understand it. Interesting theory on time related to the swing of a pendulum. Swinging right or left coincides with events in Society and the effect music and books have had on history. Humans go through 80 year cycles of change and repeat.