The Financial Crisis and the Free Market Cure – How Destructive Banking Reform Is Killing the Economy
by John A. Allison (©2013 McGraw Hill)
— a short book report by Ron Housley
I had the good fortune to hear John Allison deliver a lecture several years ago and I was stunned by the scope and detail he was able to bring together into one unified talk.
He establishes his credibility right out of the shute — by deftly integrating varying aspects of his subject into a readily understandable whole. He has total command of the tiniest detail; and he at once has the total concomitant command of all the governing principles. He may very well be the Steve Jobs of banking.
And now he has written a book!
Stop and catch your breath for a moment.
An early chapter (the one entitled “What Happened?”) will give you a great example of Allison’s rapid fire but sweepingly comprehensive style of sharing his account. He does it with no teleprompter.
You will witness the perspective of a “player” (Allison himself) who is able to assess the contribution to a problem of a vast myriad of input factors…
Take, for instance, the 2008 financial crisis — where the Fannie & Freddy story reads like a thriller, with tones from “The Big Short” at every turn. In spite of all the New York Times stories during the housing bust of 2008, an important but obscure and largely unaccepted fact remained: Freddy and Fanny had amassed liabilities in excess of 5.5-Trillion; they had practically no assets; at times they operated at a 1000 to 1 leverage ratio(!). It was 100% a government creation; and the NYT blamed “free market capitalism” for the bust(!).
When the Wall Street Reform Act was signed into law in July 2010, we saw a frightening spectacle: the authors of the reform bill were the SAME politicians most responsible for the bubble in the first place: Dodd and Frank themselves.
It is a delight to witness how Allison assembles the relevant facts together in support of a point; he is a master. And one of the primary points that he makes is that systemic failure of the financial markets can occur ONLY as the result of government policy.
FANNY AND FREDDY
– Did you know…
Fanny & Freddy got into the subprime business under pressure from the Clinton administration. They were created to support the mortgage industry’s loan origination business, but wound up taking over that business for themselves. It is one more story of how an enormous enterprise grew up right under the noses of clueless Americans and ultimately contributed to the destruction of wealth of those many clueless millions from coast to coast. Even today, most American voters do not know what happened (or is happening) to their life savings.
MARK TO MARKET
– Did you know…
Allison’s is the only clear explanation I’ve ever heard of mark-to-market accounting — which was the subject of endless sound-byte reporting back a few years ago. Allison’s punch line is: “Fair-value accounting is inconsistent with this concept [that business be valued as going concerns], because it effectively assumes that the businesses’s assets are being liquidated under stress.” (p.104) I had not realized how important the forced accounting methods were in contributing to the 2007-2009 economic downturn; the bureaucrats in charge finally relaxed their irrationality in April 2009, allowing the downward spiral to end.
Mr. Allison’s own experiences with BB&T are sprinkled in for us, a common theme turning out to be: “How could we know what random and destructive policy actions government policy makers would take next?” — pertinent at nearly every level of economic decision making.
As a corollary to the mark-to-market accounting debacle, there is the story of how it came to be that stock optons were expensed, even though they never represented an expense at all(!). It is on par with the attempt of the Indiana State Legislature (in the 1930s) to legislate pi to be an even 3-point-zero (π=3.0). When politicians attempt to trump reality, reality always wins.
THE “SHADOW BANKING” SYSTEM
– Did you know…
Now comes the fascinating chapter about derivitives and what is known as the “shadow banking” system. The MainStreet Media has treated this subject with the same superficiality and misapprehension as they did when “reporting” on mark-to-market accounting.
Among the points entirely evaded are these:
funding left the commercial banking system due to government rules and regulations that made commercial banking less competitive
The Fed bailed out the money funds, creating the illusion that they are not a risky investment
Freddy and Fanny basically drove commercial banks out of the traditional prime home mortgage business
Derivitives, which the MainStreet Media loves to decry, are mostly instruments to reduce risk and their use as speculation is seen only on the fringes
when a company prepares itself for bankruptcy, the process can be handled without crashing the financial system; but Lehman Brothers did not so plan, because it expected to be bailed out
those in charge of bailouts were mostly from Goldman (e.g., Sec Treas Hank Paulson is a large Goldman shareholder) and they hated Lehman Brothers
an “organized” bankruptcy (of e.g., AIG parent company) could proceed without disrupting financial markets
the AIG bailout was essentially a redistribution of wealth from taxpayers to holders of Credit Default Swaps, essentially Goldman Sachs;
the contribution to the crisis of Bernanke inverting the yield curve is almost never discussed by the MainStreet Media; instead, the media keep telling us that Bernanke is an “expert.”
BAILOUTS
– Did you know…
In the end, Allison asks: “Was “saving” Goldman and AIG about SYSTEMIC risk or about crony capitalism?” (p129) I don’t recall the Wall Street Journal or the New York Times framing the question quite that way at the time? Instead, they kept telling us that our government “had” to infuse billions in order to prevent total economic catastrophe; and so, Americans swallowed hard and accepted it, but they did not understand it.
Allison laments that Goldman is an advocate of special deals from Washington and is not an advocate of free markets. “If the U.S.Constitution were enforced, crony capitalism would not work because the politicians and bureaucrats would hot have the authority to hand out favors to their friends.” (p129)
REGULATION
– Did you know…
The consequences of the Dodd-Frank bill are clear: (a)it makes US firms less competitive; (b)it drives resources out of the US; (c)it reduces job creation; (d)it lowers US standard of living. Nowhere in the press do we see any such analysis. Again, Americans swallowed hard and accepted it, but they have not understood it.
In his final lament about the bailouts, Allison shares with us: “The reward for running a good business is to have your worst competitors bailed out by the U.S. government and then to have massive new regulations that punish your company for sins it did not commit.” (p130)
Mr. Allison uncovers the MYTH that deregulation caused the financial crisis; that myth is put to bed once and for all.
MARKET CORRECTION
– Did you know…
Often, an UNDERSTANDING comes about as the specific result of how an explanation is framed. In his discussion of MARKET CORRECTIONS, Allison frames another view of what happened in 2007-09. He says (p159) that instead of accumulating capital to invest in technology or manufacturing, that the US was “CONSUMING residential real estate on a grand scale.” At the same time the massive federal Stimulus spending allocated more on consumption vs. production. While citizens tried to save, the politicians dramatically reduced savings for investment by spending on consumption. This is said to be the real tragedy of the $16-trillion debt
WHAT HAPPENED?
– Did you know…
We are treated to a devastating indictment of Bernanke and Paulson (their “decisions were random and dishonest” — (p. 164). Even a “60 Minutes” exposè would be hard pressed to design a presentation capable of engaging the average American citizen — the average American appears to have issues with basic thinking skills on far less complex issues. Their verdict on Bernanke and Paulson should have been: they are incompetent and dishonest, a perfect storm for a financial crisis.
It seems that a nearly total absence of honesty and objectivity lay behind the financial crisis — but since an underlying understanding is several abstraction layers deep, most people (e.g., the Average American voter) do not take the trouble to grasp what happened. Instead, they have been taught to go along with what the authority figures say, with the pronouncements of regulators and politicians.
This is an IMPORTANT book — which answers ALL of the false and misleading rationalizations that we hear to justify what the government policy makers have done to us! It is a treasure trove.
How many Americans believed Bush/Bernanke/Paulson when they asserted that not passing TARP would lead to another Great Depression? They injected fear, and the masses went along with it. But what really happened?
TARP
– Did you know…
Or, take a peak at an insider’s view of the TARP scandal. TARP, as with Dodd-Frank, proves more harmful to healthy banks than to companies that should have failed. TARP was a curse for the healthy companies because it kept irrational competition in business.
A notable example: Citigroup — a company which malinvested itself into bankruptcy THREE (3) times, and each time was bailed out by the government, allowing it to become bigger and worse next time.
That’s so basic a point — but I don’t recall the discussion ever gracing the pages or airwaves dominated by the MainStreet Media.
HISTORY
– Did you know…
The other discussion that we don’t hear about is the history of the 1920s vs the 1930s. In the early 1920s there was a severe economic correction, which was over quickly because the government did not interfere; the correction was deep, but it ended quickly. By contrast in the early 1930s, the severe economic contraction then was sustained for an entire decade because the government implemented massive regulations, massive taxes and massive spending. TARP turned out to be just another way for government to do all three.
We are reminded of another historical comparison….
a) one result of the Great Depression was to scare Americans away from stocks for a quarter of a century (stocks didn’t regain 1929 levels until 1954).
b) today’s “crash” happened as Americans suddenly realized that housing is consumption and not investment — will it similarly be a quarter of a century before housing returns to the “pre-crash” (pre-2008) levels?
BANKING SYSTEM CURES
– Did you know…
We get a glimpse of an entire culture in its death throes. Then, Mr. Allison lays out the prescription for our return to economic health, but sadly, we can expect NONE of his recommendations to ever gain the attention or respect of those in power; consequently, we can brace ourselves for an “incredibly destructive crisis” in the next decade or two.
Those in power are smart enough to grasp that Allison’s “achievable set of steps” would work; but they want to hang on to their power, instead. The American voter not only won’t grasp Allison’s assessment; he won’t even try to grasp it, ever.
The Dodd-Frank reform bill, offered by those in power as a solution, actually worsens the situation: (a)it gives government protection to the “too big to fail” companies, virtually ensuring their ongoing risky behaviors; (b)its Durbin amendment is little more than government-mandated redistribution of wealth from bank shareholders and customers to large retailers; and (c)it gives more power to the Fed and bank regulators — more power to the very entities that created the crisis in the first place(!).
In the end what it comes down to is: “stable money is the foundation for long-term prosperity” (p. 189) But what the current crop of policy makers gives us the exact opposite. Their every decision takes aim at our long term prosperity: their ever increasing regulations; their ever increasing taxes; their ever increasing spending.
The scope and breath of Mr. Allison’s coverage paints the terrifying picture of how fast our country is moving from two and a half centuries of prosperity into the quagmire of a regulatory welfare state, where we must brace ourselves for unprecedented hardships and unprecedented loss of personal freedoms.
Why are Americans so content when the rule of law is jettisoned, as long as it is to benefit a union? Why are most Americans so comfortable with implementing policies which have always failed in the past?
How can all this be, you ask?
It is all possible, says Allison, because of philosophic ideas at play here. As with Yaron Brook’s book, Allison also makes the case that what we really face here is a philosophic moral/ethical battle; he contends that the financial crisis is most basically the result of philosophic ideas, not economic ideas. He speaks of the ideas which predominate in American universities today and which are responsible for the creation of our teachers, our journalists, our politicians.
Even today’s indoctrinated students might concede that we cannot indefinitely consume more than we produce. But, hampered by today’s philosophic pragmatism, they are never able to develop an action plan based on such a principle — because the dominant philosophy denies that there is any “permanent truth,” i.e., principles, to go by.
In today’s universities it is acceptable, even fashionable, to be thought of as pragmatic. Students in the humanities are proud to be pragmatic; proud to claim no principles.
When a whole nation of voters is pragmatic, they will vote for a candidate pledging not to reform entitlements, even when those entitlements are leading directly to bankruptcy.
When we combine philosophic pragmatism with altruism, we get a veritable witch’s brew. We get a quest for equality of outcome, along with the Orwellian notion that justice means getting what we do NOT deserve.
We get an entire Administration that thinks that justice consists in creating equality by hobbling the most able.
We get a Congress blithely shepherding the country into the nightmare of a utopian tyranny, where monetary stability is sacrificed so that the hoards can have free stuff.
We get a country on the brink, but where the citizenry is unable to see what’s happening to them. We get a citizenry voting to move faster in the same direction.
In Allison’s book we get a dose of clarity to clear the fog which heretofore comprised our understanding.
We get to see just how close we are to global upheaval; to a US decline into 3rd world status; to civil unrest; to union violence (like in Greece); to barbarians at the gate.
Allison dares us to look at 1920 Argentina, which at the time had a standard of living equal to the US. Then it plunged itself into statism — via taxation, redistribution, and loss of individual rights. It became a 3rd world economy for decades, all mediated by the morality which condemns “selfish.”
America’s own decline may have developed more slowly, starting with Teddy Roosevelt’s and Woodrow Wilson’s progressive disrespect for the Constitution. But today it has accelerated to a frightening pace: “the incredible march of the regulatory state.” (p. 259)
The teachers, the journalists and the politicians have attained a frenzy of utopian idealism, destroying individual rights, expropriating wealth, oblivious to the cost in prosperity and standard of living.
Our intellectuals and politicians are willing to sink a nation into 3rd world status if that’s what it takes to achieve the evil of making everyone equal. Why do they do it? They do it because they have bought into the philosophy of altruism, requiring us to sacrifice ourselves until everyone is reduced to equality. That is what they mean by “social justice.”
Mr. Allison’s book demonstrates that they do not have economic ideas on their side; but they are winning because of their promotion of philosophic pragmatism along with altruism. Their philosophy is winning on the national stage.
And since the Republicans mostly agree with their basic philosophic positions (about what is needed for “social justice”), a reversal of direction back toward freedom and individual rights does not seem likely to come from the Republicans.
“The real challenges are philosophical, not economic,” (p252) but in order for better philosophic ideas to get a hearing, the bad economic ideas must be swept away.
Brace yourself and arm yourself with the knowledge in this book!