في العام 1900 بدا التطور الاجتماعي بمختلف مظاهره والتقدم التكنولوجي ومحاولة الحد من الحروب بين الدول للمرة الأولى وكأنه يعطي تبرير للتوقعات المتفائلة. إلا أنه وبعد خمس سنوات أتت الحرب الروسية -اليابانية والثورة الروسية الأولى وأزمة طنجة بين فرنسا وألمانيا لتنذر بالحرب الكبرى التي لم يستشعر قدومها إلا بعض المراقبين الثاقبي النظر.
وعلى منعطف القرن الحادي والعشرين راحت المخاوف تتركز على تفجر معلوماتي هائل، إلا أنه في العام 2005 تغيرت الساحة الدولية في العمق، فالشرق الأوسط والشرق الأقصى أصبحا المرشحين المفضلين لكوارث تاريخية جديدة، فقصة النووي الإيراني التي لا تنتهي والابتزاز الكوري الشمالي وخطورة المسألة التايوانية والعداء الصيني-الياباني، كل ذلك يظهر أن الإرهاب الدولي لا يشكل الخطر الوحيد أو الأساسي للقرن الحالي. وليست صورة المستقبل اليوم أوضح مما كانت عليه عام 1905. من المؤكد أن البشرية مهددة من جديد بعودة التوحش. ويمكنها أيضاً أن تخشى تشابك وسائل التدمير المتوفرة والميول العدلية التي تولدها المحنة المعاصرة، ما هي الأفكار التي تستحق أن تخاطر مجتمعاتنا التي تجاوزت عصر البطولة للدفاع عنها؟ هذا هو السؤال الذي يحاول هذا الكتاب الشيق أن يقدم بعض العناصر للإجابة عليه.
Thérèse Delpech (11 February 1948 – 17 January 2012) was a French international relations expert and prolific public intellectual. Thèrese Delpech graduated from the École Normale Supérieure and went on to pass the agrégation of philosophy. During the rest of her career she concentrated on international relations issues. Delpech had been director of strategic studies at the French Atomic Energy Commission (CEA) from 1997. She served as an adviser to Alain Juppé during his tenure as Prime Minister (1995–1997). She was also a researcher with CERI at Sciences Po, commissioner with the United Nations Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission, and international adviser to the International Committee of the Red Cross, and was "one of France's foremost thinkers on international security." Breaking with many French intellectuals she supported the 2003 American-led intervention in Iraq and had since advocated stronger sanctions against Iran.
She was ranked 81 in the Prospect Magazine 2008 Top 100 Public Intellectuals Poll. In 2012, RAND posthumously published what will perhaps be her last book, a detailed study of decades of RAND literature on nuclear deterrence.
This slim volume looks at the reasons for Europe's decline into barbarism during the 20th century, and assesses the prospects for a similar phenomenon on a worldwide scale in the 21st century. The book began with an interesting premise, but was frustrating for several reasons.
The narrative jumped back and forth in time and was not arranged in a logical manner. Also, I think given the ambitious nature of the subject matter, the book was likely too short. I was also disappointed that in a book that dealth with moral/ethical issues, the author did not discuss the role (or lack thereof) of religion, and whether the decline of organized faith in Europe during the 19th and 20th centuries had anything to do with the phenomena that she laments.
On the positive side, the author did a good job of showing how radical ideologies led to evil outcomes, and particularly how Western intellectuals were apologists for many evil regimes. She also does a good job of addressing the major issues confronting the world over the next twenty years. Overall, a worthwhile, but somewhat frustrating, book.