What do you think?
Rate this book
Tychomancy: Inferring Probability from Causal Structure
Tychomancy ―meaning “the divination of chances”―presents a set of rules for inferring the physical probabilities of outcomes from the causal or dynamic properties of the systems that produce them. Probabilities revealed by the rules are they include the probability of getting a 5 on a die roll, the probability distributions found in statistical physics, and the probabilities that underlie many prima facie judgments about fitness in evolutionary biology.
Michael Strevens makes three claims about the rules. First, they are reliable. Second, they are known, though not fully consciously, to all human they constitute a key part of the physical intuition that allows us to navigate around the world safely in the absence of formal scientific knowledge. Third, they have played a crucial but unrecognized role in several major scientific innovations.
A large part of Tychomancy is devoted to this historical role for probability inference rules. Strevens first analyzes James Clerk Maxwell’s extraordinary, apparently a priori, deduction of the molecular velocity distribution in gases, which launched statistical physics. Maxwell did not derive his distribution from logic alone, Strevens proposes, but rather from probabilistic knowledge common to all human beings, even infants as young as six months old. Strevens then turns to Darwin’s theory of natural selection, the statistics of measurement, and the creation of models of complex systems, contending in each case that these elements of science could not have emerged when or how they did without the ability to “eyeball” the values of physical probabilities.
Michael Strevens makes three claims about the rules. First, they are reliable. Second, they are known, though not fully consciously, to all human they constitute a key part of the physical intuition that allows us to navigate around the world safely in the absence of formal scientific knowledge. Third, they have played a crucial but unrecognized role in several major scientific innovations.
A large part of Tychomancy is devoted to this historical role for probability inference rules. Strevens first analyzes James Clerk Maxwell’s extraordinary, apparently a priori, deduction of the molecular velocity distribution in gases, which launched statistical physics. Maxwell did not derive his distribution from logic alone, Strevens proposes, but rather from probabilistic knowledge common to all human beings, even infants as young as six months old. Strevens then turns to Darwin’s theory of natural selection, the statistics of measurement, and the creation of models of complex systems, contending in each case that these elements of science could not have emerged when or how they did without the ability to “eyeball” the values of physical probabilities.
- GenresPhilosophyScience
280 pages, Hardcover
First published June 1, 2013
71 people want to read
Ratings & Reviews
Friends & Following
Create a free account to discover what your friends think of this book!
Community Reviews
Displaying 1 - 2 of 2 reviews
January 3, 2014
Strevens' Tychomancy is an engaging and difficult look at probabilities and their function in the context of predictive power. The analysis starts as a relatively complex one, trying to draw together developmental psychology, history of science, and philosophy of science to illustrate how we ought to properly understand probabilities in science.
Overall, Strevens does this successfully; the book is very short and very direct, quickly illustrating a variety of claims and moving through the normative characterization of probability that he wants to give. As a result, Strevens doesn't get as deep as he does in Bigger than Chaos, but he also doesn't need to, since the claims that he is making in Tychomancy are much more specific; he is not doing a very general account of the role of probability in scientific theory.
The interest of the book is, I think, very narrow. If you're interested in probability in the philosophy of science, this is a good contribution to the literature; that is not itself totally narrow, since Bayesianism is incredibly popular, but the book is not even so general that everyone interested in Bayesian epistemology is going to find it useful. I think that looking at the scope of the project that Strevens lays out in the introduction is really crucial when picking up something this narrow, and then figuring out whether there is a particular element of that project that is of interest to you as a reader; if there is such an element, then the whole book will be worth reading, as it is not very long and may have other incidental value.
As just sort of a general preview of Strevens' developing views on probability, I found it an enjoyable read. This isn't an area of philosophy of science that I'm particularly invested in, but Strevens does a good job in Bigger than Chaos arguing for the role of probabilities in relating phenomena of different levels, and so (insofar asTychomancy fits under that view of probability, it is pretty interesting.
A quick disclaimer: Michael Strevens is my current thesis advisor; tied into this is my respect for him as a person and philosopher. I don't think that has colored this review in any important way, but it is important to have noted.
Overall, Strevens does this successfully; the book is very short and very direct, quickly illustrating a variety of claims and moving through the normative characterization of probability that he wants to give. As a result, Strevens doesn't get as deep as he does in Bigger than Chaos, but he also doesn't need to, since the claims that he is making in Tychomancy are much more specific; he is not doing a very general account of the role of probability in scientific theory.
The interest of the book is, I think, very narrow. If you're interested in probability in the philosophy of science, this is a good contribution to the literature; that is not itself totally narrow, since Bayesianism is incredibly popular, but the book is not even so general that everyone interested in Bayesian epistemology is going to find it useful. I think that looking at the scope of the project that Strevens lays out in the introduction is really crucial when picking up something this narrow, and then figuring out whether there is a particular element of that project that is of interest to you as a reader; if there is such an element, then the whole book will be worth reading, as it is not very long and may have other incidental value.
As just sort of a general preview of Strevens' developing views on probability, I found it an enjoyable read. This isn't an area of philosophy of science that I'm particularly invested in, but Strevens does a good job in Bigger than Chaos arguing for the role of probabilities in relating phenomena of different levels, and so (insofar asTychomancy fits under that view of probability, it is pretty interesting.
A quick disclaimer: Michael Strevens is my current thesis advisor; tied into this is my respect for him as a person and philosopher. I don't think that has colored this review in any important way, but it is important to have noted.
January 11, 2024
Huh huh?? What?
Displaying 1 - 2 of 2 reviews