Not the Future We Ordered: Peak Oil, Psychology, and the Myth of Progress

by John Michael Greer

For well over half a century, since the first credible warnings of petroleum depletion were raised in the 1950s, contemporary industrial civilization has been caught in a remarkable paradox: a culture more focused on problem solving than any other has repeatedly failed to deal with, or even consider, the problem most likely to bring its own history to a full stop. The coming of peak oil-the peaking and irreversible decline of world petroleum production-poses an existential threat to societies in which every sector of the economy depends on petroleum-based transport, and no known energy source can scale up extensively or quickly enough to replace dwindling oil supplies. Not The Future We Ordered is the first study of the psychological dimensions of that decision and its consequences, as a case study in the social psychology of collective failure, and as an issue with which psychologists and therapists will be confronted repeatedly in the years ahead.

Genres: Nonfiction, Peak Oil

158 pages, Paperback

First published January 1, 2013

About the author

John Michael Greer is an author of over thirty books and the blogger behind The Archdruid Report. He served as Grand Archdruid of the Ancient Order of Druids in America. His work addresses a range of subjects, including climate change, peak oil, the future of industrial society, and the occult. He also writes science fiction and fantasy. He lives in Rhode Island with his wife.

Reviews

[Silvia Di Blasio · Rating 3 out of 5]

I read this book in less than a week. I expected more, based on the title and was somewhat disappointed...first, Greer takes pages and pages to explain concepts such as civil religion, double bind and emotional investment, not as they are (clear and straightforward), but from where they originated (for me, an unnecessary detour). For example, he used two pages to explain how Gregory Bateson studied schizophrenic patients, when he could have explained double bind in half a page. At one moment, I thought I was readying a book about schizophrenic and not about people reaction to peak oil.
Second, I became even more disappointed at the end of the book, when Greer throws fundamentalist Christians and New Ages together with environmentalists!
I have been readying about peak oil, resource depletion, climate change and its impacts, economic and social failure, etc. for more than a year now. I am surprised that a serious author may dispose of something like climate change comparing it to the Rapture or some sort of supernatural mind who will “save” us...climate change is real (I am studying it at a high level course at the university just to understand the facts and develop my own ideas around it). If we compare the complexities and impacts, I would say that those of climate change are much deeper than peak oil. If, by means of a magical turn, everybody (governments and regular citizens of the world) suddenly “get” the peak oil problem and decide to change their lifestyles and plans, we may adapt to a different world, one where energy is not just costly but scarce. And yes, this will impact how we produce, transport and conserve food; will impact how we heat our houses, cook, work, travel, etc. But we will survive...after all; we have lived without oil for many years before.
Just to clarify: I do get that now we have more people and that the slide down won’t be easy. It will be terrible, as it already is for many people in many countries in the world...the problem is that peak oil is not the only problem, and probably not the biggest one we have.
The way we have exploited the “resources” (and continue to do so) has destroyed diversity, affected water supply and caused changes in the climate that we are just starting to experience. These changes won’t necessarily be “big” or sudden as in “The Day after tomorrow” movie...but they will impact other things we depend on (and not just us, but other species as well, many of which we need so ecosystems function properly so we can get food, air and water).
Finally, I found the book a bit unrealistic: it ends with a suggestion to mental health practitioners so they can work with people affected by peak oil awareness...uhmm! I’m not sure whether people affected by unemployment, the need to prepare their families and communities for an uncertain future and probably already affected by some of the things peak oil, resource scarcity, etc bring to them would have the time or means to pay a psychologist or counsellor...
The book makes a good effort to explain what happens to people who are in denial. It also explains why governments and others in power seem to ignore peak oil and make decisions in the other direction. But they do exactly the same with biodiversity extinction, water scarcity, climate change, social injustice, economic inequality, etc.
I would have liked more detail on how to introduce the concept to people in denial, or a study on why some “get” it so fast and with minimal pain and some reject the concept fiercely.
I was also expecting more vision on how to mentally and emotionally “prepare” for an uncertain (and probably terrible) future...I know this is tricky, but it would be good a try.

[Chris Chester · Rating 3 out of 5]

As the global economy skids up against the realities of a world unable to find a replacement for the abundance of fossil fuels that have driven industrial society for two centuries, how will people cope?

This is the essential question at the center of Not the Future We Ordered. If you're unfamiliar with the concept of Hubbard's Curve or peak oil, this book is not the best place to start, because Greer really treats the concept almost as a given. For those interested, The Long Descent: A User's Guide to the End of the Industrial Age or The Ecotechnic Future: Envisioning a Post-Peak World are probably better places to start.

In this book, Greer looks at the psychology of people coming to terms with the end of progress, using a number of different models. The application of Kubler-Ross' five stages of grief is probably the truest analogy, at least in my experience. When I first started reading about peak oil in 2011 or so, I went through many of the stages myself.

What makes it a particularly stressful time is that the thing that you're grieving for goes largely unacknowledged by society at large or even among your friends and family. I think my anger was easily written off as a more typical kind of political angst, but I got a lot of weird looks when I was in the bargaining stage, talking about how we should all move to a farm and grow our own food. I think at this point my wife has just written off my beliefs as an eccentricity without ever evaluating the underlying assumptions.

That's honestly how I think most people will end up dealing with revised economic expectations. Most millennials that I know have already come to terms with diminished prospects on one level or another. The death of the myth of progress happens more gradually in those cases.

I do think the analogy about House Wife Syndrome and drapetomania (the "disorder" that made slaves flee the South) is apt, and I genuinely hope people don't seek pharmaceutical solutions to economic problems.

Anyway, this was a good, quick read. But it's mostly inside baseball for people for people in the peak oil scene. I really doubt that therapist-types will take these insights into their practice.

[Donnell · Rating 3 out of 5]

Amazingly, a quick read. There is fill, but not like the fill when an author has his one concept and takes 250-300 pages to say it.

Liked the way the info here fit some pieces together. For example, back in the 1970's, President Carter went before the American people and told us we were going to run out of domestic oil and that we were going to have to hunker down and conserve and learn to live with less etc. But then, as Greer explains, Reagan and Thatcher saw a wonderful opening--let's just say this prediction of relatively distant doom is bunk, we can then a. get great personal power; b. live with plenty while all around us live with plenty, c. die well before any peak oil problem hits; d. leave few to no biological grand children who would have to deal with peak oil problems.

Also, I find it fascinating when mind sets don't match reality; and the whole myth of progress is currently one of the major mindsets out there at the moment.

Further, as easy as it is to claim the myth of progress is not a myth but the true reality, there is the hard, real fact that there is only so much oil. Wow the temptation to take the next step in denial is powerful! To feel: of course some other source will be found in time. So we have to stretch out the wait with ethanol and fracking, but of course something will turn up....

THis is where most people need to wake up: something may turn up but it is not there now, and it is not in the pipeline so THE ONLY WAY to see the real world to day is to see a world where the oil is going too fast to support infinitely more progress. And, if there is no oil to support the progress, there can be no progress.

[Kitap Yakıcı · Rating 4 out of 5]

The theme Greer develops here will not be unfamiliar to regular readers of his blog: peak oil, a phenomenon discussed in several of his other recent books, means that the global, industrial economy is in for a sustained economic contraction, resulting in great reductions in our standards of living and the frustration of expectations that we have long-taken for granted. This sense of entitlement, however frustrated, comes with what Greer describes as the "civil religion" of Progress and means that,

industrial societies around the world behave as though a future of continued technological advance, economic expansion, and global socio-political integration is guaranteed, and projects that will only make sense if such a future were to happen...proceed apace, even in regions where by most measures decline has already begun. (42)

He uses the typology of Kübler-Ross's "five stages" to describe the ways in which we are responding—or failing to respond—to the implications of peak oil. I don't think too many readers would meet his definition of "acceptance," and I cannot completely give up my own utopian hopes and dystopian fears. You might not agree with every one of Greer's arguments, but he is a reasoned, thoughtful writer who will definitely challenge deeply held assumptions.

[Mark Valentine · Rating 4 out of 5]

The book functions well as a primer to the looming post-industrial collapse when oil resources tighten and the means for our affluent lives becomes museum pieces. Greer presents an overview for what to expect; no specifics, just the broad strokes of how it will look and why.

Why? It's in our social psychology. Along with the Industrial Revolution came the illusory fantasy that efficiency means progress. But efficiency simply means we are efficient at whatever we were doing earlier, for good or for ill. Maybe it's not all good.

Finally, I appreciate his connecting the stages of Kubler-Ross's five stages of grief (denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and acceptance) to what to expect for these next few years of mourning the demise of peak oil.

People get ready.

[Roger Blakesley · Rating 1 out of 5]

I found this book full of hubris. (A word the author used about 7,000 times.) His stunning level of cynicism and lack of hard scientific or engineering knowlege made the entire reading experience both unpleasant and stomach turning.

His near-religious worship of the false, soft-science of psychology had me aghast.

While I agree that we maybe reaching a logarithmic asymptote of prosperity or progress I by no means buy into his luddite faith position that we are running out of abundant future petroleum supplies.

Snarky, cynical, bitter, inaccurate, and thoroughly unpleasant.

[Kerry · Rating 3 out of 5]

Interesting but not riveting. Focuses on the psychological aspects of the future energy issues we will face this century. Not a fan of psychology so it held a passing interest for me at best. Don't dismiss it on that basis though. Some of the points raised were quite interesting, particularly in the areas of why people refuse to face issues like Peak Oil and climate change.

[Logan Streondj · Rating 5 out of 5]

An excellent book covering the psychology of why some people have difficulty coming to grips with the reality of resource shortages. Basically it is because they believe in the civil religion of perpetual or infinite growth. It also covers many of the ways people sidestep various issues, such as using scapegoats, and defining self in opposition to other self.

Very good short book, certainly worth archiving.

[Dameon Launert · Rating 4 out of 5]

John Michael Greer explains many ideas in the context of peak oil: myth, the civil religion of progress, and psychology concepts such as archetype, shadow self, projection, double bind, deviance, and the stages of grief.

[Artemis · Rating 4 out of 5]

It's lacking certain anti-racist knowledges and it has flaws but...
I think it's important for where and how it stands.

A book that I think the vast majority of people should read.

[Siddiq Khan · Rating 5 out of 5]

Amongst a discussion of what Greer aptly describes as the civil religion of progress, you will find insights into the relation between American suburbia, nuclear war, and the rise of second-wave feminism; the relation between the gay rights, gay pride and the conventional role of social deviance; the nature of the psychological double bind and the tragic denoument of Nazism; and most important of all, a taxonomy of "the five stages of peak oil" that will prove helpful for many who need to tend their grief over the loss of a promised future that will never come in order to respond constructively to the overwhelmingly immense predicament of our epoch.

[Dimitris Hall · Rating 3 out of 5]

Quick read, rich in information, read on Kindle. John Michael Greer is my recent obsession I discovered through Ran Prieur and the links he posts on his blog.

Having been a regular reader of JMG's blog The Archdruid Report for a few months now, the content and topic of Not the Future We Ordered didn't come as a surprise. In short, it's about how progress is our contemporary "civic religion" and myth; what the psychological impact of living through peak oil and its aftermath will look like in the wider population (surprising and fascinating to read) and what people should be doing to build some foundation for the future and for young people to improve their chances of survival in the future, the current situation being what it is. Made my current desire to go find some land somewhere, cultivate it and develop my hardly existent practical skills even stronger.

Overall, if the topic interests you--it absolutely should--but you're kind of put off by the fact that JMG is, well, an archdruid, take my advice and allow yourself to be surprised by how eloquent, backed up, bulletproof and to the point his argumentation is. I'm giving this book just three stars out of five because a lot of the information I felt I had already come across in the blog (albeit in the book it was more structured) and because it was short! What can I say? I love me some JMG.

[Bryan Winchell · Rating 4 out of 5]

This is an important book, even though it's a bit drier than the stuff I usually like to read. I think, though, that our myth of progress, which is based on how we think so highly of our human achievements and our ability to control Nature, is blinding us to the reality of Peak Oil and the future that seems to be just around the corner. If that sentence at all intrigued or ticked you off, I recommend this book. I'll say no more!

[Joshua Mccroskey · Rating 4 out of 5]

One of Greer's best so far. Incredibly insightful and compellingly readable... I finished it in one sitting.

[Jason Gordon · Rating 4 out of 5]

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