What do you think?
Rate this book
Learning from the Future: Competitive Foresight Scenarios
"Scenarios are now a part of every successful manager's toolkit. This book is the first comprehensive guide to the latest developments in scenario thinking written by today's leading practitioners in the field." -Napier Collyns, a pioneer of scenario planning at Dutch/Shell now Managing Director, Gloal Business Network (GBN) "In twenty years of helping companies create and plan for their futures, I have never come across a book that dealt with the use of scenario-based planning as comprehensively as this one." -David Kelley CEO, IDEO Product Development the creators of the Apple Mouse "This book is the greatest reference today on scenario planning-the preeminent tool for those who believe that the future belongs to those with the imagination to create it. The combination of scenario planning and strategy formulation can be a wondrous right brain process that galvanizes teams with a compelling vision and common purpose." -David E. Schnedler Director, Corporate Planning Sun Microsystems, Inc. "Organizations must create intellectual and organizational tension around distinctly different views of the future. Learning from the Future demonstrates why scenarios are ideally suited to generate such tension and how to use scenario learning as a steppingstone to superior strategies." -Richard Pascale, Associate Fellow of Oxford University and author of Managing on the How the Smartest Companies Use Conflict to Stay Ahead "An invaluable guide to the mind-stretching benefits of scenarios that are fully embedded in the strategic thinking process. It should be required reading for any management team embarking on scenario development so they can realize the benefits and evade the pitfalls." -George Day, Geoffrey T. Boisi Professor and Director of the Huntsman Center for Global Competition and Innovation Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania
464 pages, Hardcover
First published October 1, 1997
20 people are currently reading
3125 people want to read
Ratings & Reviews
Friends & Following
Create a free account to discover what your friends think of this book!
Community Reviews
Displaying 1 - 6 of 6 reviews
September 21, 2023
Amazone
Back to the Future
Learning From the Future, by Fahey and Randall, is a very comprehensive how-to manual for creating foresight scenarios and turning them into action.
The use of scenarios to formulate a vision of the future and how best to be prepared for it has been a major strategy tool since the RAND Corporation, the military think tank, started using this methodology in the 50's to plan for "unthinkable" contingencies.
The collection of authors recounts the steps vital to a good scenario: identify key current forces affecting the organization, involve all levels of management (so they 'own' the scenario results), assure the scenarios are linked to crucial decision processes, do not slip into trying to forecast the 'most likely' future, tell a story, link the scenario elements logically (perhaps graphically) together.
Chapter 4 is especially good at describing how to create matrices of outcomes with sliding scales of driving forces such as the price of gas or protectionist versus open markets.
Both "future forward" (present day forward, or inductive) and "future backward" (working from the future backwards, deductive) scenario types are explored, as are computer-assisted methods.
Every conceivable element that could be factored into a scenario is covered and categorized in the book, including political trends, natural disasters, pricing and cultural trends, as well as the classic SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats).
If there is one fault to the book, it is that the case studies could be more poignant - instead of distinct organizations with palpable products and threats, these tend to be generic (e.g., a "high tech" company producing "electronics"); this exsanguination of content leads to some bland examples and occasional lapses into platitudes (e.g., "leave enough time for evaluation").
In contrast, another scenario book, The Sixth Sense, by van der Heijden, glows with colorful case studies. When I created and played in scenarios at RAND, we found that adding color and story helped the process immeasurably: we created posters and put them on the wall, we got into character like actors do, we generated future headlines and stories - not just generically, but for a specific date and paper (the Washington Post was a favorite) - to make the process seem more relevant and the results more richly detailed.
The book could also have more precise examples of insights and corporate changes that resulted from scenarios as evidence for their worth - this text is clearly meant for the already converted.
That said, the very extent and thoroughness of the material, its coverage of elements often left out of other texts, and its provision of checklists for novice scenario builders, make it a must-read.
The use of scenarios has a long track record of success, even in decades past when the rate of change and pace of market forces was more leisurely. In this day and age, when markets can evolve every six months, the use of scenarios to enable an organization to be proactive rather than reactive is more important than ever, and this text is one of the most exhaustive that exists on this important topic.
Christopher Harz
---
Wiki Educator
The origins of scenario planning as strategy development tool can be traced back to the work of Herman Kahn in the 1950s who conducted foresight work for the US military while working at the RAND Corporation.
The Royal Dutch Shell company pioneered scenario planning in the corporate world, using the methodology to successfully navigate the turbulent oil crisis in the 1970s, when many of their competitors failed to anticipate significant change.
Pierre Wack, an eccentric oil executive, developed the scenario planning approach at Shell, working with a team of scenario planners.
"Scenarios deal with two worlds; the world of facts and the world of perceptions. They explore for facts but they aim at perceptions inside the heads of decision-makers. Their purpose is to gather and transform information of strategic significance into fresh perceptions."
Pierre Wack
Today, Shell has a dedicated Scenarios Team which supports executive leadership. The original Shell approach of scenario planning has matured into a powerful technique representing a variety of approaches which force companies to think more critically about the future than conventional forecasting techniques allow.
Shell deliberately sets up scenarios at opposite ends of the spectrum, so as to expose managers to alternatives they may not ordinarily see and then asking how they would respond if a particular scenario realised itself.
Back to the Future
Learning From the Future, by Fahey and Randall, is a very comprehensive how-to manual for creating foresight scenarios and turning them into action.
The use of scenarios to formulate a vision of the future and how best to be prepared for it has been a major strategy tool since the RAND Corporation, the military think tank, started using this methodology in the 50's to plan for "unthinkable" contingencies.
The collection of authors recounts the steps vital to a good scenario: identify key current forces affecting the organization, involve all levels of management (so they 'own' the scenario results), assure the scenarios are linked to crucial decision processes, do not slip into trying to forecast the 'most likely' future, tell a story, link the scenario elements logically (perhaps graphically) together.
Chapter 4 is especially good at describing how to create matrices of outcomes with sliding scales of driving forces such as the price of gas or protectionist versus open markets.
Both "future forward" (present day forward, or inductive) and "future backward" (working from the future backwards, deductive) scenario types are explored, as are computer-assisted methods.
Every conceivable element that could be factored into a scenario is covered and categorized in the book, including political trends, natural disasters, pricing and cultural trends, as well as the classic SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats).
If there is one fault to the book, it is that the case studies could be more poignant - instead of distinct organizations with palpable products and threats, these tend to be generic (e.g., a "high tech" company producing "electronics"); this exsanguination of content leads to some bland examples and occasional lapses into platitudes (e.g., "leave enough time for evaluation").
In contrast, another scenario book, The Sixth Sense, by van der Heijden, glows with colorful case studies. When I created and played in scenarios at RAND, we found that adding color and story helped the process immeasurably: we created posters and put them on the wall, we got into character like actors do, we generated future headlines and stories - not just generically, but for a specific date and paper (the Washington Post was a favorite) - to make the process seem more relevant and the results more richly detailed.
The book could also have more precise examples of insights and corporate changes that resulted from scenarios as evidence for their worth - this text is clearly meant for the already converted.
That said, the very extent and thoroughness of the material, its coverage of elements often left out of other texts, and its provision of checklists for novice scenario builders, make it a must-read.
The use of scenarios has a long track record of success, even in decades past when the rate of change and pace of market forces was more leisurely. In this day and age, when markets can evolve every six months, the use of scenarios to enable an organization to be proactive rather than reactive is more important than ever, and this text is one of the most exhaustive that exists on this important topic.
Christopher Harz
---
Wiki Educator
The origins of scenario planning as strategy development tool can be traced back to the work of Herman Kahn in the 1950s who conducted foresight work for the US military while working at the RAND Corporation.
The Royal Dutch Shell company pioneered scenario planning in the corporate world, using the methodology to successfully navigate the turbulent oil crisis in the 1970s, when many of their competitors failed to anticipate significant change.
Pierre Wack, an eccentric oil executive, developed the scenario planning approach at Shell, working with a team of scenario planners.
"Scenarios deal with two worlds; the world of facts and the world of perceptions. They explore for facts but they aim at perceptions inside the heads of decision-makers. Their purpose is to gather and transform information of strategic significance into fresh perceptions."
Pierre Wack
Today, Shell has a dedicated Scenarios Team which supports executive leadership. The original Shell approach of scenario planning has matured into a powerful technique representing a variety of approaches which force companies to think more critically about the future than conventional forecasting techniques allow.
Shell deliberately sets up scenarios at opposite ends of the spectrum, so as to expose managers to alternatives they may not ordinarily see and then asking how they would respond if a particular scenario realised itself.
August 20, 2020
"Learning from the Future" is a book that is best studied than read casually, even for business.
Authored by Liam Fahey and featuring information by several other authors, the book explores in great detail the effectiveness of utilizing future scenario learning in business strategy. Several case studies are featured, complete with a mix of real and anonymous companies that experiment with business scenarios, and most of the case studies contain complementary flowcharts and diagrams to further enhance the projection of the respective scenarios.
This is an advanced business book aimed mainly at MBA students and business owners. Those readers that are looking for a semi-casual business book on scenario strategies may find some difficulty in absorbing the contents in this book, since the author seems to assume the readers already have prior knowledge to advanced business learning.
However, by reading the book you will discover the usefulness of scenario application to a business. Scenario learning, if thoroughly exercised and professionally applied, can help safeguard a business against unexpected future changes such as economic shifts, competitor advantage, and new trends followed by customers as time passes. Each case study offers its own unique strategy on how to apply scenario learning, and can be easily used as good examples for other companies to use as a template to follow.
"Learning from the Future" is only a must-read if you happen to own a business or have the authority within your own organization to add future scenario learning to your upcoming strategy. University students taking MBA courses will also find this book useful in their business studies, as the book contains rich information on the subject and is also formatted as a text book suitable for such a level in academia. Other readers may safely skip this book unless they are truly interested in the specific subject itself.
Authored by Liam Fahey and featuring information by several other authors, the book explores in great detail the effectiveness of utilizing future scenario learning in business strategy. Several case studies are featured, complete with a mix of real and anonymous companies that experiment with business scenarios, and most of the case studies contain complementary flowcharts and diagrams to further enhance the projection of the respective scenarios.
This is an advanced business book aimed mainly at MBA students and business owners. Those readers that are looking for a semi-casual business book on scenario strategies may find some difficulty in absorbing the contents in this book, since the author seems to assume the readers already have prior knowledge to advanced business learning.
However, by reading the book you will discover the usefulness of scenario application to a business. Scenario learning, if thoroughly exercised and professionally applied, can help safeguard a business against unexpected future changes such as economic shifts, competitor advantage, and new trends followed by customers as time passes. Each case study offers its own unique strategy on how to apply scenario learning, and can be easily used as good examples for other companies to use as a template to follow.
"Learning from the Future" is only a must-read if you happen to own a business or have the authority within your own organization to add future scenario learning to your upcoming strategy. University students taking MBA courses will also find this book useful in their business studies, as the book contains rich information on the subject and is also formatted as a text book suitable for such a level in academia. Other readers may safely skip this book unless they are truly interested in the specific subject itself.
September 10, 2021
A collection of different chapters by different authors. It is dated and repetitive.
August 26, 2022
This book inspired the subtitle on my book, Marketing Machine: The Secret History of the Future of Marketing (ROI)
May 7, 2017
A book written by multiple authors who are gurus of scenario business planning. The book is about how to develop scenarios in your business, what will be the futur of the market looks like from here 5 or 10 years, how to spot possible and critical future changes that may create opportunities or threats. How an eventual change in your clients habits, a new advance in technology, a new coming competitor may affect your market share.
Displaying 1 - 6 of 6 reviews