China: Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations

by Tao Wang

This paper reviews the evolution of China's real effective exchange rate between 1980 and 2002, and uses a structural vector autoregression model to study the relative importance of different types of macroeconomic shocks for fluctuations in the real exchange rate. The structural decomposition shows that relative real demand and supply shocks account for most of the variations in real exchange rate changes during the estimation period. The paper also finds that supply shocks are as important as nominal shocks in accounting for real exchange rate fluctuations, in contrast with other studies that show that, in industrial countries, nominal shocks are more important in explaining real exchange rate fluctuations.

24 pages, Kindle Edition

First published February 1, 2004

About the author

Wang Tao (Chinese: 汪涛) is a Chinese economist and expert on the Chinese economy, and author of the 2023 book Making Sense of the Chinese Economy. She is currently managing director, chief China economist and head of Asia economic research at UBS Investment Bank. She served on the Mainland Opportunities Committee of the Hong Kong Financial Services Development Council from 2016 to 2021, and is a member of the Chief China Economist Forum.