Comparing Projections and Outcomes of IMF-Supported Programs

by Steven Phillips

Associated with every economic program supported by IMF resources is a set of projections, a quantitative framework setting out a particular scenario of outcomes for policy and other variables. Such a scenario should provide a basis for determining a coherent set of economic policies and financing plans. Moreover, program projections for key macro variables are made public, so they have the potential to convey information useful for private sector decisionmaking. In light of these functions of program projections, it is natural to ask how they tend to compare to actual outcomes.

36 pages, Kindle Edition

First published May 1, 2001