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The Killing Zone, Second Edition: How & Why Pilots Die by Paul A. Craig

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This literal survival guide for new pilots identifies "the killing zone," the 40-250 flight hours during which unseasoned aviators are likely to commit lethal mistakes. Presents the statistics of how many pilots will die in the zone within a year; calls attention to the eight top pilot killers (such as "VFR into IFR," "Takeoff and Climb"); and maps strategies for avoiding, diverting, correcting, and managing the dangers. Includes a Pilot Personality Self-Assessment Exercise that identifies pilot "types" and how each type can best react to survive the killing zone.

Unknown Binding

First published December 12, 2000

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Paul A. Craig

14 books13 followers

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5 stars
305 (48%)
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228 (36%)
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78 (12%)
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12 (1%)
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Displaying 1 - 30 of 53 reviews
1 review1 follower
February 21, 2017
Thanks to all the reviewers of The Killing Zone. I wrote the first edition of the book in 2000 and it covered general aviation accidents from 1983 (the first year I became a flight instructor) to 1999. The second edition was written to see what, if any, impact new flight training initiatives in the 2000's had on the Killing Zone. Special thanks to those who pointed out that frequency of accidents and the rate of accidents are not interchangeable - a fact that I believed I explained better in the second edition of the book. It is my sincere hope that the information, tips and techniques of the book save lives and make flying fun, exciting and safe - no matter what statistical calculations are applied! Dr. Paul A. Craig
1 review
December 24, 2014
Unfortunately, Craig repeatedly commits a rather serious statistical error in this book. He uses accident frequency counts, rather than accident rates, as the statistical basis for his conclusions about the range of the "killing zone." Frequency counts are interesting, of course, but they don't account for the number of pilots at each range of flight hours (which accounts for most of the effect he claims). Therefore, they say little about the risk that you yourself face as your flight experience increases. My concern is the nature of that zone, and that we use the right methodologies to explore the issue. You'll have to forgive me for being geeky about this. It's just that it's part of what I do for a well-known agency having to do with aviation (which can't be named, because I'm speaking here as a private citizen).
Statistically, rates aren't interchangeable with frequencies. Rates subtract the effect of how many individuals are present in each "bin" of a frequency distribution (in this case, the y-axis, where the x-axis would be flight hours). In fact, it appears that about 70% of the "zone" may be an artifact, and can be explained just by the fact that the frequency distribution of NON-accident pilots looks nearly identical to the distribution of accident pilots. See my paper http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/... regarding this.

Bottom line: The kind of analysis we use on data like these is very tricky, is all I'm saying.
Profile Image for Bastian.
71 reviews1 follower
May 14, 2017
This book is trying to be scientific without understanding basic statistics. The basic premise of the book, that low-hour pilots are in "the killing zone", a time of high danger, is just plain wrong. There are simply more low-hour pilots than high-hour pilots, which leads to more low-hour accidents than high-hour accidents.

I believe the author realized that in one of the last chapters, where he tries to calculate the risk for pilots of different hours; but at that point, it was probably too late to change the premise of the book.

There is more: For example, in one of the last chapters, the author explicitly encourages flying in challenging situations, like night and IFR, but also explicitly warns that these situations lead to accidents, without qualifying how these two pieces of advice relate to one another. There are more examples like this.

That being said, the majority of the book contains discussions of accidents. This part is interesting, and the discussion is usually insightful. Just be aware that the author's conclusions are often not much more than educated guessing.
Profile Image for John Sperling.
166 reviews8 followers
June 6, 2021
Highly subjective, sometimes speculative commentary on various NTSB reports of airplane crashes. Contains an introductory level explanation of aircraft systems, meteorology, aerodynamics, flight training, physiological factors, and their relationship to aircraft accidents. In fairness to the author, he is trying to keep pilots from dying, not to write the world's best book, but let's be clear: this is not great literature. But for the subject matter, there is some good stuff here, and there is a fun (albeit highly stereotypical) personality test in chapter 16. Pilots would be advised to look at the NASA reports at https://asrs.arc.nasa.gov/publication..., the Air Safety Institute's accident case studies on youtube, and the NTSB accident database for continued study of air safety issues.
9 reviews
December 2, 2008
This book is an excellent backgrounder in the kinds of mistakes that newly certified pilots often make, and how to take a few relatively simple steps to avoid them and be a better an safer pilot. I highly recommend it to anyone that has recently passed their checkride.
Profile Image for Eric_W.
1,954 reviews428 followers
November 26, 2023
2nd edition

I am not a pilot, but I’m interested in aviation and especially in risk and how we measure and apply risk evaluations to normal activities. This book was recommended as the best comprehensive examination of risk in general aviation flying. Flying, in general, has become safer, although as Craig points out, the common trope that the most dangerous part of flying is the drive to the airport, is true only for commercial aviation; it is definitely not true for general aviation. An analysis of comparative data reveals that general aviation is far more dangerous than driving.

Craig exams the problems with training, unintended consequences of otherwise valuable laws and regulations (e.g., the 1500 hr. minimum to be hired with the regionals placed emphasis on quantity rather than quality and meant that pilots would “bore holes in the sky” rather than seek experience with unusual conditions.) Changes in business practices can also have unintended effects. When it became possible to send digital copies of checks rather than the physical checks themselves, hundreds of pilot jobs were eliminated. Those jobs had provided important experience flying in adverse weather conditions and circumstances that were now much less available as a training experience. Craig points out that military pilots were flying combat missions with less than 400 hours, but were very successful because of the type of scenario training they had received.

The revolution of “glass cockpits” that replaced the old mechanical instruments made flying safer, but counter-intuitively, also more dangerous as pilots needed to become information managers more than “stick and rudder” pilots. There was the danger of thinking you are safer because of all the safety equipment and information overload that impinged on making the right decision. Was a pilot more likely to take off with a lower ceiling knowing he had auto-pilot and instruments that would have navigate through the weather. A very recent accident I learned about * involved a very experienced pilot (17,700 hours), in a very sophisticated airplane (pressurized Centurion) who mixed bad weather with night flying and poor cockpit management (fuel exhaustion) and got himself killed.

Craig examines the major types of GA accidents and analyzes them for lessons that can be learned from each. Ultimately, however, it will be the individual pilot’s decision-making skill, knowing when not to fly, and what circumstances to avoid, that will make more of a difference, I suspect. One of the biggest killers is “get-thereitis” and one NTSB investigator remarked that you should only fly if you have time to spare. Craig adds to that the admonition that in addition to their pilot’s license and logbook, pilots should be required to have an active account with a car rental company.


*https://aviation-safety.net/wikibase/...
Profile Image for Kiri.
Author 1 book42 followers
March 10, 2019
Powerful and impactful - this is a book I'll return to over time. The author posits that there is a "killing zone" in which most pilot fatalities happen, based on NTSB accident statistics. He points to the region of pilot experience between 50 and 350 flying hours. There are some issues with how exactly this zone should be defined, but that doesn't really matter - it's just motivation for getting you to read the main content of the book, which is an analysis of reasons that pilots die, and how to avoid that fate. It's a bit of a grim book to read, in which 95% of the characters die (he also has stories from a few "Killing Zone Survivors"), but it is eye-opening and educational to see what can go wrong before you end up experiencing it yourself.

And the content is not presented in a voyeuristic way. As the author put it:
"The accidents used for examples throughout this book are used only with the greatest respect for the victims. By using the fatal accidents of fellow pilots as a learning tool, it is as if they have signed an "organ donor card" back to us. Their tragedy may be of value saving the life of another pilot."

One wonders if a similar strategy could be employed to help us all improve as automobile drivers as well.

The chapters describe accident conditions that are organized in decreasing order of likelihood (based on accident records). They cover the usual suspects: VFR into IMC, maneuvering, takeoff/climb, approach/landing, runway incursions, midair collisions, fuel exhaustion (yes, really), etc. We all know that these are risks, but I think it has more impact when you read the stories about folks who lost their lives.

It's a fine line between being educated about all the risks and being paralyzed by fear. This book isn't out to scare you into paralysis. In the end, it is empowering: in almost every case, the outcomes could have been avoided by making different decisions. That is, the outcome was under pilot control. Knowledge and experience can help one make better decisions. This books helps you short-cut the process of gaining enough experience by seeing through other pilots' eyes. Onward and upward!
1 review1 follower
October 5, 2019
With this book, the author, Paul, did a great job educating me on where specific dangers exist and can creep up on you when you are in the vulnerable position of being in the sky in light aircraft. The issues and lessons he addresses in the book are from real events that have caused fatal accidents.

In its case-study review approach, this book explains both why and how accidents happen and could’ve been avoided. The lessons learnt were adequate preparation, capability awareness (he terms ‘ personal minimums’) and continuing education, play big parts in continued safe flying.

The book’s format of analyzing accident reports and concluding the preventative measures was very educational as the science was explained in a immediately relatable to me, in the sense of answering how to protect yourself from those accidents happening to you.

This book was great for me because I always associated general aviation flying with generally high risk and danger. From engine malfunction to turbulent weather, I was under the impression that much of that is out of the control of the pilot, but it’s not.
This book has given me the confidence that flying is a proven science that can be trusted and mastered through progressive learning and practice.

Overall, this book has given me renewed energy and direction in how I should learn flying, that suits my learning style.
For that I give 5-stars.
Profile Image for Lucas H.
18 reviews
October 4, 2024
“The Killing Zone: How & Why Pilots Die” by Paul A. Craig explores the common causes of accidents in both general and commercial aviation, emphasizing the “killing zone,” a period in a pilot’s career when they are statistically more likely to be involved in an accident. The book delves into the various types of incidents, breaking down statistics to illustrate which kinds of accidents contribute most to the overall figures in American aviation.

One interesting statistic is highlighting that general aviation is ten times more dangerous than driving a car, …when I remember correctly.

While the statistics offer an important overview, the book’s most captivating elements are the detailed essays recounting specific accidents. Drawing directly from NTSB (National Transportation Safety Board) reports, these accounts provide real-world examples of the risks pilots face. Craig then provides his analysis and practical advice for pilots on how to mitigate these risks and improve safety.

The author emphasizes key aspects of flying safely, such as the importance of stabilized approaches for smooth landings. While some advice may seem basic, the clear and direct approach serves as an effective reminder for both aspiring and experienced pilots. Overall, it is a valuable read for those looking to enhance their aviation skills and safety awareness.
Profile Image for Jen Smith.
Author 1 book2 followers
May 4, 2020
This was one of those books you can read in a single sitting. The author has clearly attempted to write a book that is engaging and interesting, but also full of facts. He has succeeded very well.

Other reviews have criticised the statistics: that the author does not take into account that some (or most) of the apparent ‘killing zone’ effect - with most accidents happening to pilots with <300 hours - is due to the fact that there are simply more low hours pilots. Every pilot is a low-hours pilot at first: only some pilots go on to become high-hours pilots (and not only because they die: lots just give up flying).

However, even taking that into account, this book makes valuable reading. The author goes through the major causes of accidents, how they come about and how they might be avoided, together with useful things for pilots to know in order not to become another statistic. And he does this in down-to-earth language that makes the book a pleasure, rather than a chore, to read. He obviously has his own particular hobby-horses in the matter of how pilots should be trained, but that doesn’t detract from the value of this book.

Highly recommended.
Profile Image for Ellie.
344 reviews7 followers
November 30, 2019
A very dry book, a little hard to get through sometimes, and more than a little repetitive in places, but nevertheless vital reading for students or newly qualified pilots. The NTSB reports make interesting (if depressing) reading, and provide learning points - what not to do when flying! The accident reports and ILAFFT sections of magazines like Pilot and Flyer are always the bits I turn to first, and this book is sort of an extended version of those. The 40-question test at the end is interesting - I tend more to the higher end of the scale, meaning I don’t have the typical pilot personality - which is not necessarily a bad thing; I’m more likely to do the checks and make a decision not to fly in borderline weather conditions - but it also means I may not gain as much experience in dealing with more difficult conditions, unless I push myself a bit more. Any book that makes me more aware of such traits is worth reading.
1 review
June 8, 2022
The book is a valuable read for any private pilot who can usefully use the information to consider their own flying practices and improve safety. Like many other commenters, I disagree with the statistical analysis - the basic premise that there is a "killing zone" can't be supported with the analysis shown. It needs to take into account the number of pilots actively flying in each experience bracket and how active they are. The most obvious explanation for the peak in accident rates for less experienced pilots is simply that there are more inexperienced pilots. It's even possible that greater experience could increase the chances of an accident occurring (for example due to complacency, mission profile, or complexity of aircraft flown). So I think it's dangerous to assume that once you are out of "the zone" you are automatically a safer pilot. With that in mind, especially if you are a more experienced pilot, read chapters 2-17 and keep learning!
Profile Image for Ronald.
144 reviews1 follower
May 24, 2025
I mean what’s not to like…many ways you can get killed flying GA. I appreciate the effort to o it together the data and tips on how to avoid them. I believe new pilots should all have a read. I’m not sure about encouraging people to get cpl because if we’re sensible deregulate I’d like to see more risk taking on the part of manufacturers and eventually replace the 60 year old junk we’re all flying and bring some technology to the ga world rather than the expensive attempt to reform the pilots. I know one hour spent in training gives you more than one hour of sight seeing, but maybe we wanna do sight seeing more than we do practicing power off 180? It’s not always easy to see the marginal revenue of taking those additional training. Instrument on the other hand I agree is basic skills that everyone should learn. Either that or the vfr minimums should be raised three times the current value because it’s really not safe to fly legal mvfr.
Profile Image for Vedat GURER.
46 reviews
November 15, 2018
Must read

I read that book while waiting for my approval as a foreign student pilot. The ppl instruction facility had a developed redbird fmx flight simulator and the instructor offered a ride before I signed for the course. He uploaded a simple approach scenario and asked me to land the plane. I tried my best while he was pointing the instruments and throttle. I played ms flight sim decades ago and forgot many things. I landed the plane but missed the runway. During the descent I was thinking " this is wrong, I will miss the runway, I have to abort and try again" but there was some other candidate waiting to play with the thing, and I pressed on. After I read that book, I understand again, that, if you are the pilot in command,you have to carry the responsibility of the decisions. You can't let any stress alter doing the right thing to do.
Profile Image for Sarah.
173 reviews30 followers
February 17, 2025
I think this is an excellent book that can greatly increase the knowledge and skill level of any pilot and it would absolutely be one of my top recommendations for anybody looking for a way to learn without diving into a textbook (although background textbook knowledge would be quite important to get the full benefit of this book).

The statistics interwoven throughout the chapters really showcase the importance of each topic covered and touch on everything from aeronautical decision making, systems failures, weather, and so much more. It is hard not to be inspired by this book to go out and get further training and make sure you remain a competent and capable pilot for as long as you fly.
Profile Image for Phil Btf.
8 reviews
February 6, 2022
So many mistakes… the instructor author has to review aerodynamics… and other fields

E.g. « In slow flight, large airplanes must produce extra lift to make up for the slow speed by using flaps, leading-edge droops, and a range of other devices. ». There are no extra lift, as the weight is the same…

« This is why we leave retractable landing gear down while there is any runway or clear zone ahead » only in case of SEP, not MEP… And depending what is the cloud base… flying IFR… ?

« The air behind and under the wing is pushed down. In normal flight this does not matter, but close to the ground the downwash quickly strikes the surface and bounces back up into the wing. This provides a “cushion” of air that the airplane can ride on. » not correct at all…

Etc

Next time ask another instructor or even better an examiner to review it and find mistakes ?

Just wondering if the author has an ATPL ?
Profile Image for Stephen Sun.
39 reviews
April 15, 2023
Useful overview of common causes of accidents in general aviation. The book contains many case studies of actual accidents, and discusses potential causes and how to mitigate risks. While there are times that the book does make a few leaps in logic so as to feed its conclusions, it is still a good read for any general aviation pilots, as it helps to bring to light the risks involved with flying. I'll definitely listen to this book again from time to time.
Profile Image for Tom Comeau.
5 reviews
August 24, 2020
Good summary of the problem, less on the solution.

There are a number of mistakes (Hubble does not use ring-laser gyros, for example) but a good deal of information extracted from accident reports. Avoid the same mistakes and get to 350 hours and you are likely to be a decent pilot.
1 review
January 17, 2018
Awesome Read

I gained so much from this book that I’ve told all my low hour flying buddies that if they don’t buy the book, I will buy it for them. It’s also inspired me to move towards my IFR rating if for anything to be a better pilot.
Profile Image for Roger Mitchell.
10 reviews2 followers
January 7, 2020
Worth reading regardless of experience level

Glad to have read this as an instrument rated private pilot. Wish I read it as a student pilot, and will surely read it again in the future.
Profile Image for Timber.
350 reviews
March 13, 2021
A couple throwaway chapters and more than a little stretching in parts trying to make an accident fit the chapter narrative, but mostly a great book with fantastic insight. Great systems diagrams, clear explanations, interesting NTSB accident scenarios.
Profile Image for Ben.
181 reviews
December 29, 2021
Very interesting book. Basically just goes case by case as to why pilots crash. Held my attention very well. Ironically I would not recommend reading this before getting you private pilots certificate because it might scare you away from doing so.
1 review1 follower
May 6, 2024
Frank discussion of why low-time pilots die

As a low-time private pilot, this was a frank, non-sugar-coated review of why the first several hundred hours of flight time are the riskiest. Good suggestions are made as to how to avoid some of this increased risk.
57 reviews2 followers
April 30, 2019
Useful, worth a read, but written in a repetitive and tiring manner with shady statistics.
Profile Image for Sam Huish.
33 reviews
May 17, 2019
Brilliant case studies on pilot errors. Lots of learning points, and self analysis to follow. Read in a few sittings, but will certainly refer back to. Should be core reading for all PPL Holders.
Profile Image for Engin.
16 reviews8 followers
August 3, 2019
Definitely worth reading for the anecdotes and the insights but the statistics are woefully flawed.
Profile Image for Mark.
88 reviews1 follower
January 2, 2020
It's a great statistical guide to the dangers of overconfidence in flying.
Profile Image for Scott Holstad.
Author 132 books97 followers
January 26, 2020
Definitely some good stuff, but there a few questionable areas that make the book seem inherently flawed. Recommended reading for backup foundational knowledge, but to be read critically.
Profile Image for Motostrelki.
3 reviews
August 25, 2021
"When all things are considered within context flying is not safer than driving"
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