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On the Accuracy of Economic Observations by Oskar Morgenstern
Morgenstern, Oskar
Paperback
First published January 1, 1950
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Displaying 1 - 2 of 2 reviews
July 9, 2019
This was obviously right up my alley. A very detailed analysis of the reliability of published statistics by various agencies and institutions.
It's really a series of case studies in probability analysis. Throughout the book you have the opportunity to view various figures from all over the world, of all different kinds. The various errors in accounting (largely stemming from differences in depreciation [not much has changed]) are obviously accounting for a lot of incomparable statistics.
This book's large finding was that growth rate statistics (which incorporate error-ridden figures in multiple calculations exacerbating them even further) are largely meaningless, and if even remotely useful should only really be utilized to the first digit, not the second digit, as many economists do.
I have just finished reading Schumpeter and he used a growth rate to a second digit as a major part of his argument. Not sure if this is one Austrian economist taking a jab at another, but I will say that it does make me question the reliability of Schumpeter's calculations in his second part of his Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy. Anyway, five stars. Beautifully detailed work in statistics and error for the social sciences.
It's really a series of case studies in probability analysis. Throughout the book you have the opportunity to view various figures from all over the world, of all different kinds. The various errors in accounting (largely stemming from differences in depreciation [not much has changed]) are obviously accounting for a lot of incomparable statistics.
This book's large finding was that growth rate statistics (which incorporate error-ridden figures in multiple calculations exacerbating them even further) are largely meaningless, and if even remotely useful should only really be utilized to the first digit, not the second digit, as many economists do.
I have just finished reading Schumpeter and he used a growth rate to a second digit as a major part of his argument. Not sure if this is one Austrian economist taking a jab at another, but I will say that it does make me question the reliability of Schumpeter's calculations in his second part of his Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy. Anyway, five stars. Beautifully detailed work in statistics and error for the social sciences.
August 6, 2016
I skimmed this and so probably read 5%. Seems like his examples were decent. Main fault was wordiness.
Displaying 1 - 2 of 2 reviews