Headlines around the world about severe droughts, hurricanes, and floods caused by El Niño and La Niña appear every few years. El Niño is the second most important climate process after the changing seasons; its effects are widely known, but the equally serious impact of La Niña is only now beginning to be appreciated. Fully revised, Currents of Change clearly explains what El Niño and La Niña are and how they can be forecast. Examining for the first time the major El Niño of 1997-1998, Michael Glantz explains what we can learn from past events, how we can better manage climate-sensitive activities, and how to anticipate what future storms and droughts may occur. A century ago, it was of interest only to Peruvian fishermen and farmers. Today, scientists armed with tremendous computer models and satellites realize that El Niño and La Niña affect climatic conditions in seemingly remote parts of the world and are better able to predict which regions will be affected. Including the latest information about El Niño and La Niña, this new edition of Currents of Change will be useful to scientists, policymakers, economists, and interested readers alike. Michael Glantz is a Senior Scientist with the US National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in the Environmental and Societal Impacts Group, a program of NCAR. He is the coordinator of a 16-country El Niño impacts and response strategies study for the United Nations. Glantz is a member of numerous national and international committees and advisory bodies and is a recipient of the 1987 World Hunger Media Award, of UNEP's Global 500 Award, and the 1991 Mitchell Prize for Sustainable Development. He is the author of Climate Variability, Climate Change, and Fisheries (Cambridge, 1992) and Drought Follows the Plow (Cambridge, 1994). He lives in Boulder, Colorado.
What is El Niño? Michael Glantz describes El Niño in a variety of ways. His definition includes, but is not limited to, the following:
El Niño \’el nee’ nyo noun [Spanish]\ 1: The Christ Child 2: The name given by Peruvian sailors to a seasonal, warm southward-moving current along the Peruvian coast . 3: Name given to the occasional return of unusually warm water in the normally cold water [upwelling] region along the Peruviam coast, disrupting local bird and fish populations 4: name given to an…increase in both sea-surface temperatures in the south central and/or eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and in sea level atmospheric pressure in the western Pacific.
In reading through the opening chapters, Mr. Glantz does an excellent job of describing what El Niño is, how it impacts the Pacific Ocean Basin and the world, and why we should care. The book is divided into three sections: ‘Emerging Interest in El Niño,’ ‘The life and times of El Niño episodes,’ and ‘Who cares about El Niño – and why?’ Within each section, there are multiple chapters that explore an aspect of El Niño in depth – these topics range from a general history of El Niño to forecasting El Niño events to researchers’ current thoughts on El Niño. Each chapter provides a different perspective to the El Niño phenomenon. While Mr. Glantz is to be commended for tackling such a massive subject and simplifying it for the “common man,” the end result is, unfortunately, a book that collapses under the weight of what it is trying to accomplish.
In his desire to please an audience who lack the proper vocabulary or experience, Mr. Glantz is forced to describe, in great detail, many different aspects of El Niño. His descriptions get very lengthy, and sometimes he has to explain something about his description (for example: in trying to describe forecasting El Niño events, he mentions telecommunications and talks some about what telecommunications is, how they are designed to improve over time; this is hard to focus on when the next chapter is already dedicated specifically to telecommunications). He also goes on seemingly unrelated and lengthy tangents that test one’s attention span. For example, when he is discussing the effects of El Niño in the introductory chapter, he goes from discussing what it is to the fact that El Niño is translates to “Christ Child” (see above) and was mentioned as the beginnings of Peruvian folklore because of the time it was observed – December. Now, I do not mean to belittle this information – I think it provides a wonderful historical insight to the people of Peru during this time – but that was not the place for this information. This is just one example of the out-of-place thoughts and ideas he has in this book. This is a problem that plagues the book as a whole.
Despite these complaints, Mr. Glantz does provide plenty of information and eventually accomplishes the objectives he set out to do. Once one has spent enough time with the book to understand the important and relevant material, the concept of El Niño becomes very clear and very approachable. For example, if one is looking to find information on the 1982-1983 El Niño event, there is an entire chapter devoted to that. One would also be able to find a “biography” of El Niño, a chapter devoted to researchers’ thoughts about why we should care about El Niño, its relation to the southern oscillation (which is discussed in little detail) and plenty of other concepts of El Niño. And within each of these chapters are subheadings that narrow down the search for information even more.
Although it is not perfect, Currents of Change presents a thorough analysis of the El Niño phenomenon. With the plethora of information and detailed organization within each chapter, it can easily be used as a reference for those who wish to know anything about El Niño. For those that already have an understanding of what El Niño is, they may wish to avoid this book and the long (and sometimes unrelated) tangents and incredibly specific, long-winded descriptions.