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Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage
Geophysicist M. King Hubbert predicted in 1956 that U.S. oil production would reach its highest level in the early 1970s. Though roundly criticized by oil experts and economists, Hubbert's prediction came true in 1970.
In this revised and updated edition reflecting the latest information on the world supply of oil, Kenneth Deffeyes uses Hubbert's methods to find that world oil production will peak in this decade--and there isn't anything we can do to stop it. While long-term solutions exist in the form of conservation and alternative energy sources, they probably cannot--and almost certainly will not--be enacted in time to evade a short-term catastrophe.
In this revised and updated edition reflecting the latest information on the world supply of oil, Kenneth Deffeyes uses Hubbert's methods to find that world oil production will peak in this decade--and there isn't anything we can do to stop it. While long-term solutions exist in the form of conservation and alternative energy sources, they probably cannot--and almost certainly will not--be enacted in time to evade a short-term catastrophe.
224 pages, Paperback
Published August 31, 2003
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Displaying 1 - 15 of 15 reviews
April 19, 2008
I was hoping for more of a discussion of the strong points and short-comings of Hubbert’s predictions, but that isn’t what is contained here. Oh well, there was still a lot of interesting information: nearly all oil fields lie between 7,500 and 15,000 feet in depth; tar sands are basically oil fields that have been exposed via erosion; there is really only one spot left on earth – the South China Sea – that may hold significant undiscovered oil deposits; whatever measures we institute now won’t be in time to get us through the peak period adjustment; oil bearing rock needs to have both porosity (ability to contain) and permeability (ability to deliver) – if you have one without the other, no dice; exploring for oil at sea is far easier than it is on land, just drag the seismic sonars behind a boat over broad sections of ocean rather than bounce along in a truck, stop, listen, pick up the equipment, move to a new location, and so on; all of the “new” drilling methods that are supposed to increase the viability of old fields have been around for the past 20 years so don’t expect miracles; beware the argument that rising prices will spur additional development – the years of highest U.S. discovery/production were during the Great Depression; oil companies have little reason to develop alternative energy as nothing produces financial returns like oil, the company’s fiduciary duty kicks in once again and this trend will only intensify once peak production is hit.
July 23, 2012
This is a very important book for everyone to read,although it can be a bit difficult for those without a Geology background. This book was written by a Geologist and it explains how our fossil fuel resources were created over millions of years and why they will run out in the not too distant future. He also makes a start at discussing some of the alternative fuel options we need to focus on today before we hit the "cliff". Interestingly enough, he used to work for an oil/gas company which makes his message even more compelling.
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January 15, 20262001
The major thesis is that world oil production will peak in the next decade, most likely
around 2004 but most probably before 2009. Deffeyes uses the methodologies that
proved prophetic when M. King Hubbert’s 1956 projection that U.S. oil production
would peak between 1970 and 1975 proved true. Hubbert, a well respected petroleum
geologist, was nonetheless widely criticized by people in the industry who projected a
virtually unlimited future for oil. It turned out that 1970 was in fact the peak production
year.
Hubbert’s peak represents the point of maximum production on a bell curve graph. It
would seem that a graph of the buildup and decline of oil production would be
asymmetric, driven by the pace of discovery early in the cycle, then by advances in
extraction technology later on. This is has not proven so in the U.S. since 1970.
Exhaustive exploration, additional wells (our ½ million active wells produce less than
the 1500 or so in Saudi Arabia) and improved techniques do not offset declining new
discoveries. Even early exploration techniques were good enough that all the world’s
biggest fields were discovered more than 30 years ago, most 60 years ago. It is unlikely
we will find any huge sleepers.
With a wonderful sense of proportion, Deffeyes spends the first half of his short book
taking the reader on a leisurely tour of oil formation, exploration and production. By the
time he gets around to his thesis he has provided the reader with the essential background
and thoroughly established his credibility.
Deffeyes’ treatment of the solutions to the problems he raises is brief and not terribly
optimistic. Two take-home points are that it is not too much work to use natural gas as a
substitute for oil and that we should overcome our fears of nuclear energy. Geothermal,
wind and hydroelectric are inherently limited resources. By his analysis the energy cost
alone of making and installing solar devices almost outweighs the energy they can
produce. Unless we make early and radical changes, there will be a painful decade or
two of transition after petroleum becomes scare but before we have developed an
alternative.
Probably in the interest of brevity, the book chooses not to touch on many related themes,
among them global warming, fuel economy and transportation alternatives. He only
teases the reader as far as advice on preparing for the impending oil shortage.
Note: Learn that 400,000 US wells are called “stripper wells”, doing less than 10
BBL/day. 15,000 are shut down every year because the electricity to run the pumps costs
more than the oil is worth.
The major thesis is that world oil production will peak in the next decade, most likely
around 2004 but most probably before 2009. Deffeyes uses the methodologies that
proved prophetic when M. King Hubbert’s 1956 projection that U.S. oil production
would peak between 1970 and 1975 proved true. Hubbert, a well respected petroleum
geologist, was nonetheless widely criticized by people in the industry who projected a
virtually unlimited future for oil. It turned out that 1970 was in fact the peak production
year.
Hubbert’s peak represents the point of maximum production on a bell curve graph. It
would seem that a graph of the buildup and decline of oil production would be
asymmetric, driven by the pace of discovery early in the cycle, then by advances in
extraction technology later on. This is has not proven so in the U.S. since 1970.
Exhaustive exploration, additional wells (our ½ million active wells produce less than
the 1500 or so in Saudi Arabia) and improved techniques do not offset declining new
discoveries. Even early exploration techniques were good enough that all the world’s
biggest fields were discovered more than 30 years ago, most 60 years ago. It is unlikely
we will find any huge sleepers.
With a wonderful sense of proportion, Deffeyes spends the first half of his short book
taking the reader on a leisurely tour of oil formation, exploration and production. By the
time he gets around to his thesis he has provided the reader with the essential background
and thoroughly established his credibility.
Deffeyes’ treatment of the solutions to the problems he raises is brief and not terribly
optimistic. Two take-home points are that it is not too much work to use natural gas as a
substitute for oil and that we should overcome our fears of nuclear energy. Geothermal,
wind and hydroelectric are inherently limited resources. By his analysis the energy cost
alone of making and installing solar devices almost outweighs the energy they can
produce. Unless we make early and radical changes, there will be a painful decade or
two of transition after petroleum becomes scare but before we have developed an
alternative.
Probably in the interest of brevity, the book chooses not to touch on many related themes,
among them global warming, fuel economy and transportation alternatives. He only
teases the reader as far as advice on preparing for the impending oil shortage.
Note: Learn that 400,000 US wells are called “stripper wells”, doing less than 10
BBL/day. 15,000 are shut down every year because the electricity to run the pumps costs
more than the oil is worth.
September 2, 2011
Comprehensive and detailed, sometimes even down to industry anecdotes, it reviews oil and adjacent fossil fuel areas in historical and industry segment perspectives. With numerous illustrations, schemes and facts enlisted, author gives no single gap on one single message - peak oil has started and now we are on the way down. And then suddenly he pushes reader into hands of nuclear energy lobby like if nuclear *fuel* rods are not excavated from ground only once and arguments both laughable and sketchy - you can't teach old geologist for new tricks. Book leaves mixed feeling of love and hate: probably the best explanation of why peak oil has started and where we are going with it, and then all of sudden stripping off all future and tossing back to square one. Yet marked good as this probably the only 100% honest petroleum engineer/geologist/economist/scientist book on peak oil, just skip ending about kiss-your-nuclear-energy.
June 19, 2011
Fairly light read that makes a lot of concrete predictions. Drawing on ideas from 1970's and 1980's this book was published in 2001. Turns out they pinned down the point of global peak oil pretty precisely. (Spoiler alert) it happened in 2005. The world will never produce as much oil as it did 6 years ago. OPEC is at maximum production and will remain so forever.
It took the Earth and Sun over one hundred million years to produce 2 trillion barrels of oil. We burned half of it in 150 years. There will never again be as much available in the rest of our lives as there has been available to the past two generations. On the bright side, that probably means the end of mechanized warfare before the century is out.
It took the Earth and Sun over one hundred million years to produce 2 trillion barrels of oil. We burned half of it in 150 years. There will never again be as much available in the rest of our lives as there has been available to the past two generations. On the bright side, that probably means the end of mechanized warfare before the century is out.
February 2, 2008
This book is a must for a basic understanding of what Hubbert predicted long ago - that global oil production would peak around the turn of the 21st century, with dramatic results. Written off as an eccentric, his predictions of the US oil peak came true during his lifetime. Deffeyes does a good job of tying in the giant issue of peak oil to the predictions of Hubbert without ranting.
March 25, 2011
The content of this book was very interesting. I gave it 3 stars because most of the book was not about peak oil, but rather about how oil was created, where it is found and how it is extracted. This is all valuable information, but titling alone knocked it down a star from what this book should have received.
November 1, 2015
A decent piece of work from a real life oil company geologist about the concept of Peak Oil and how it might affect us in the years to come. A lot of personal anecdotes and a lot of real geology made it a decent read. A little bit too much of the "look at the great things I have done in my great life" angles to give it a 5 star rating.
December 18, 2012
An interesting book and great that it is written by a geologist, but I found his writing style to be overly colloquial in a very forced way. Also, in light of recent developments some of his conclusions don't hold as much weight as they probably did when this was written 10 years ago.
January 22, 2016
Very good. Must read for energy future. Very gold info and technology info.
Very good. Must read for energy future. Very gold info and technology info for insight into modern energy policy and politics.
Very good. Must read for energy future. Very gold info and technology info for insight into modern energy policy and politics.
June 11, 2007
the first book to really make peak oil explicit.
September 23, 2009
Good intro to petroleum geology for those of us who have no desire to be a petroleum geologist.
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June 13, 2011A must read for those that seek to understand the current crisis in energy
August 28, 2012
The math behind Hubberts model is simple and this book explains the situation well. Was hard to find a shortcoming or flaw in the entire line of reasoning.
May 23, 2015
Get's into some of the technical evidence for peak oil. A good intro to the subject - I believe it's still valid, though fracking has temporarily put it on hold.
Displaying 1 - 15 of 15 reviews