What do you think?
Rate this book
Beating the Business Cycle: How to Predict and Profit From Turning Points in the Economy
How can you make wise decisions about your company and your personal future when you have no idea where the economy is headed?
The answer is, you can’t. But you can learn how to accurately predict turns in the economy so that you can see the road ahead. And Beating The Business Cycle shows you how.
In Beating the Business Cycle , Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji, the directors of the renowned Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) show how anyone can predict and profit from the inevitable booms and busts of the economy.
Why should we believe them? Because while so many economists and financial gurus have failed to predict recessions in the past, ECRI’s forecasts are known for being uncannily accurate. The institute successfully predicted the U.S. recession of 2001 many months before the economists did; the 1990 recession and later recovery; and most recently, the weak U.S. recovery in 2002. ECRI is in constant demand by corporate America and the media. It is the “secret weapon” of companies from Disney to DuPont, the major fund managers, and many central banks.
Beating the Business Cycle is the first book to reveal how decision makers at all levels—managers, small business owners, and individuals—can see into the economy’s future when making key decisions. Should a large company search out new clients and build new factories or stores, or should it consider cost cutting and layoffs? Is it the right time for you to splurge on that luxury vacation or addition to your house, or would it be more prudent to cut back on big expenditures and save money for a rainy day?
Written in an easy-to-understand, accessible style, Beating the Business Cycle takes the guesswork out of deciding which of the hundreds of economic indicators to trust and which ones to trash. It will give you the tools and confidence you need to make the right decisions at the right times—even when the rest of the investing and business world would persuade you otherwise. Whether you are a corporate manager or the owner of a small business, whether you have your money invested in stocks or in your home, Beating the Business Cycle will give you the edge you need to trump the competition and stay ahead of the crowd.
The answer is, you can’t. But you can learn how to accurately predict turns in the economy so that you can see the road ahead. And Beating The Business Cycle shows you how.
In Beating the Business Cycle , Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji, the directors of the renowned Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) show how anyone can predict and profit from the inevitable booms and busts of the economy.
Why should we believe them? Because while so many economists and financial gurus have failed to predict recessions in the past, ECRI’s forecasts are known for being uncannily accurate. The institute successfully predicted the U.S. recession of 2001 many months before the economists did; the 1990 recession and later recovery; and most recently, the weak U.S. recovery in 2002. ECRI is in constant demand by corporate America and the media. It is the “secret weapon” of companies from Disney to DuPont, the major fund managers, and many central banks.
Beating the Business Cycle is the first book to reveal how decision makers at all levels—managers, small business owners, and individuals—can see into the economy’s future when making key decisions. Should a large company search out new clients and build new factories or stores, or should it consider cost cutting and layoffs? Is it the right time for you to splurge on that luxury vacation or addition to your house, or would it be more prudent to cut back on big expenditures and save money for a rainy day?
Written in an easy-to-understand, accessible style, Beating the Business Cycle takes the guesswork out of deciding which of the hundreds of economic indicators to trust and which ones to trash. It will give you the tools and confidence you need to make the right decisions at the right times—even when the rest of the investing and business world would persuade you otherwise. Whether you are a corporate manager or the owner of a small business, whether you have your money invested in stocks or in your home, Beating the Business Cycle will give you the edge you need to trump the competition and stay ahead of the crowd.
208 pages, Hardcover
First published January 1, 2004
12 people are currently reading
63 people want to read
Ratings & Reviews
Friends & Following
Create a free account to discover what your friends think of this book!
Community Reviews
Displaying 1 - 5 of 5 reviews
January 6, 2011
read well, but are either of these guys billionaires?
June 29, 2025
Nice points, but it borders on being a bit too self-promoting.
Key takeaways: Embrace a cyclical worldview. People’s perception of risk will always fall a few steps behind - so much so that we could actually consider public opinion a lagging indicator. When the economy is entering recession, most will assume the expansion is continuing. In other words, just when most think that risk is low, actual risk is spiking up. Window of vulnerability to geopolitical shocks. Indicators must be pronounced, pervasive and persistent.
Key takeaways: Embrace a cyclical worldview. People’s perception of risk will always fall a few steps behind - so much so that we could actually consider public opinion a lagging indicator. When the economy is entering recession, most will assume the expansion is continuing. In other words, just when most think that risk is low, actual risk is spiking up. Window of vulnerability to geopolitical shocks. Indicators must be pronounced, pervasive and persistent.
September 16, 2022
A stupid marketing book for these guys’ consulting practice.
November 21, 2011
Forecasting is an art more than science. People have been interested in forecasting for ages (astrology etc). Businesscycle.com folks have based their predictions on economic data and they have been timely and pretty accurate. The book doesn't discuss in detail however lists ideas with some citations (which I have not read yet). I plan to do the analysis of investments if I were to follow their advice for big picture. Let's see when I get around to it... :) Their WLI and FIG indicators are free on their website with historic data to download...
Additionally: Taking from linkedin review of someone else as I found it to be an excellent one...
"Achutan and Banerji, the principals of ECRI ("Economic Cycle Research Institute"), a business forecasting shop, and disciples of Geoffrey Moore --the originator of what we now consider leading economic indicators-- have written a book that is suitable primarily for the layperson yet useful to the professional. There is no formula for the "secret sauce" in this easily readable work; this will annoy professional forecasters and/or econometricians looking for that professional edge, techniques and references -as will the numerous references to the admittedly impressive track record of ECRI. Lakshman Achutan, as the public face of ECRI, has put the company's reputation on the line time and again over the past decade and more by proclaiming (well in advance of the competition) the troughs and peaks of the American business cycle (on television no less). To be fair to the authors and their venture, ECRI does make two of their leading indicators freely available to the public (on their website) and investment professional (via systems such as Bloomberg) on a weekly basis so while the book may appear to be an advertisement for the company's services, it does do an effective job in making the reader consider the framework of the microeconomic foundations of market supply and demand that, in turn, result in the inflection points in the business cycle. This is clearly something that even the most complex econometric models fail to do. So, why should you bother giving this book a quick look? (And it will be quick as a voracious reader could finish it in a sitting or two.) Because business cycles count and no amount of manipulation of the money supply can do away with that over the long-run. History shall show this to be true: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's proclamation of 'the great moderation' belongs to the dustbin of dumb ideas; the great market dislocations of 2007 and 2008 have seen to that, as has the abject failure of monetary policy hitting a lower bound. "
Additionally: Taking from linkedin review of someone else as I found it to be an excellent one...
"Achutan and Banerji, the principals of ECRI ("Economic Cycle Research Institute"), a business forecasting shop, and disciples of Geoffrey Moore --the originator of what we now consider leading economic indicators-- have written a book that is suitable primarily for the layperson yet useful to the professional. There is no formula for the "secret sauce" in this easily readable work; this will annoy professional forecasters and/or econometricians looking for that professional edge, techniques and references -as will the numerous references to the admittedly impressive track record of ECRI. Lakshman Achutan, as the public face of ECRI, has put the company's reputation on the line time and again over the past decade and more by proclaiming (well in advance of the competition) the troughs and peaks of the American business cycle (on television no less). To be fair to the authors and their venture, ECRI does make two of their leading indicators freely available to the public (on their website) and investment professional (via systems such as Bloomberg) on a weekly basis so while the book may appear to be an advertisement for the company's services, it does do an effective job in making the reader consider the framework of the microeconomic foundations of market supply and demand that, in turn, result in the inflection points in the business cycle. This is clearly something that even the most complex econometric models fail to do. So, why should you bother giving this book a quick look? (And it will be quick as a voracious reader could finish it in a sitting or two.) Because business cycles count and no amount of manipulation of the money supply can do away with that over the long-run. History shall show this to be true: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's proclamation of 'the great moderation' belongs to the dustbin of dumb ideas; the great market dislocations of 2007 and 2008 have seen to that, as has the abject failure of monetary policy hitting a lower bound. "
June 5, 2014
Mostly marketing crap with a new tidbits of info for further investigation. Not bad if you're looking for research leads but there are better sources (e.g. - NBER papers, UBC econ profs, etc.)
Displaying 1 - 5 of 5 reviews