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Comeback: America's New Economic Boom
Charles R. Morris's The Trillion Dollar Meltdown (2008) was the first book to warn of the impending financial crash in all its horrific scale and speed. Now, with Comeback , Morris reveals that the United States is on the brink of a strong recovery that could last for twenty years or more.
The great economic boom times in American history have come because of fortuitous discoveries. Natural resources (coal first, then oil) fueled vast economic and industrial expansions, which in turn helped create and supply new markets. The last genuine economic game changer was the technology boom of the 1990s, which gave the U.S. a global competitive advantage for a while based on electronics and silicon. One of the first writers and analysts in the U.S. to predict that the tech boom would lead to a period of sustained economic growth was Charles Morris. In defiance of the recessionary times (in 1990), he saw the coming boom. Now, in 2013, he sees the threshold of another.
This time the gift is natural gas. The amount and distribution of gas in American shale is so vast that it has the potential to transform the manufacturing economy, creating jobs across the country, and requiring a new infrastructure that will benefit the nation as a whole. Because of fracking, jobs that once would have been outsourced abroad will return home, America can become a net exporter of energy, and cheap energy will provide the opportunity for innovation and competition.
In light of this new opportunity, and other complementary developments Morris explores in this book, the U.S. ought to be approaching the future with a robust self-confidence it has not experienced in a while. But we could fumble it away. The gold-rush style of shale boom companies does not make them good neighbors. A counter-reaction could put their industry, and the new era of national prosperity, at risk. We also have a political system that has the capacity to spoil the benefits of this huge boon. If the wealth locked in the continental shelf is not shared for the general economic good, but is instead exploited in short-term profiteering, then many of the opportunities that exist will be choked off by a few very rich corporations.
Managing the great bonus of the vast store of cheap energy is going to become a defining political challenge in the years ahead. At the threshold of a thrilling opportunity, Morris is a brilliantly perceptive guide.
The great economic boom times in American history have come because of fortuitous discoveries. Natural resources (coal first, then oil) fueled vast economic and industrial expansions, which in turn helped create and supply new markets. The last genuine economic game changer was the technology boom of the 1990s, which gave the U.S. a global competitive advantage for a while based on electronics and silicon. One of the first writers and analysts in the U.S. to predict that the tech boom would lead to a period of sustained economic growth was Charles Morris. In defiance of the recessionary times (in 1990), he saw the coming boom. Now, in 2013, he sees the threshold of another.
This time the gift is natural gas. The amount and distribution of gas in American shale is so vast that it has the potential to transform the manufacturing economy, creating jobs across the country, and requiring a new infrastructure that will benefit the nation as a whole. Because of fracking, jobs that once would have been outsourced abroad will return home, America can become a net exporter of energy, and cheap energy will provide the opportunity for innovation and competition.
In light of this new opportunity, and other complementary developments Morris explores in this book, the U.S. ought to be approaching the future with a robust self-confidence it has not experienced in a while. But we could fumble it away. The gold-rush style of shale boom companies does not make them good neighbors. A counter-reaction could put their industry, and the new era of national prosperity, at risk. We also have a political system that has the capacity to spoil the benefits of this huge boon. If the wealth locked in the continental shelf is not shared for the general economic good, but is instead exploited in short-term profiteering, then many of the opportunities that exist will be choked off by a few very rich corporations.
Managing the great bonus of the vast store of cheap energy is going to become a defining political challenge in the years ahead. At the threshold of a thrilling opportunity, Morris is a brilliantly perceptive guide.
192 pages, Paperback
First published January 1, 2013
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62 people want to read
About the author
Charles R. Morris
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Charles R. Morris
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Charles R. Morris
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Displaying 1 - 7 of 7 reviews
March 26, 2022
Quite impressive data and representation of the state of economic affairs in the unites states. A little dated now, but still worth a read.
Only complaint I have about this book is that - 50% of the book is about what the process of oil and gas production than real economic story.
Only complaint I have about this book is that - 50% of the book is about what the process of oil and gas production than real economic story.
April 10, 2013
Comeback, as the sub-title suggests, predicts a coming economic boom for America. The source? Cheap energy. Morris hypothesizes that an emerging boom in cheap energy—driven by natural gas extracted by fracking shale—will lead to a resurgence in American manufacturing and an economic boom. The shale gas revolution has been a long time coming. President Ford launched the Eastern Gas Shales Project in the 1970s. Congress passed a production tax credit in 1980. Polymers allowing commercial production of shale gas were introduced in 1998.
The shale industry already produces more than a third of the country’s gas. And at a time when other factors are at work. China’s manufacturing advantage for products like appliances is shrinking to the point (10-15%) where companies are and will bring production back home. And we still have a 25-45% advantage over Europe.
Morris describes himself as “an old-fashioned liberal who has long lamented the loss of stable blue-collar jobs” and thinks that the broad cycles between liberal and conservative that our government goes through is a good thing tempering the excesses of either side. It shows. Morris is pro-government (especially infrastructure investment), pro-economic development, anti-trade, and a deal-cutter on the environment.
The last point shows in his fair-handed exposition of the environmental issues. Contamination of ground water near shale wells does happen. On the other hand, shale does less environmental damage than coal. One environmental disadvantage to shale gas production is that the wells are frequently much closer to human habitation. Surprisingly, more damage is done by surface spills and poorly constructed wells than by fracking (fracking has the advantage of the pithy and evocative name). Morris recommends conciliation on the part of the shale industry for pragmatic reasons. Mitigating your environmental impact keeps the regulator away.
The first point shows in how state-centric his approach remains. The three broad focuses of Comeback are on energy (and with it manufacturing), infrastructure, and healthcare. Morris talks about “reduced government activity.” He’s right that we’re spending less on infrastructure, but we’re certainly spending a whole lot more on government. It’s wrong to imply that we’ve engaged in any sort of austerity. Morris notes that federal taxpayers have a real interest in levees because the federal government foots most of the bill for flood insurance, but he should also note that we can continue to expect to foot most of the bill until we shift the cost onto the counties and states that stand to be harmed. He gets through an entire chapter on infrastructure without mentioning transfer payments once. As to healthcare, Morris recognizes healthcare isn’t just “deadweight loss” on the economy because the sector encompasses no small part of our high-tech sector. But he looks to Obamacare to solve our cost (“exploitation”) problem. He really doesn’t understand the other reason why healthcare costs are skyrocketing. Shifting too much of our healthcare spending to insurance has played a very large part, and Obamacare only exacerbates the problem. The government’s negotiating power is more likely to result in shortages than equilibrium pricing. He refers to construction in natural gas export facilities as “white elephant” investment while encouraging the government to shut down export (apparently the facilities are bad investments because the government might shut them down).
Comeback’s value is in giving facts about the current state of the shale industry. Morris’ analysis and prescriptions, on the other hand, leave much to be desired.
Disclosure: I received a complimentary e-copy of Comeback via NetGalley.
The shale industry already produces more than a third of the country’s gas. And at a time when other factors are at work. China’s manufacturing advantage for products like appliances is shrinking to the point (10-15%) where companies are and will bring production back home. And we still have a 25-45% advantage over Europe.
Morris describes himself as “an old-fashioned liberal who has long lamented the loss of stable blue-collar jobs” and thinks that the broad cycles between liberal and conservative that our government goes through is a good thing tempering the excesses of either side. It shows. Morris is pro-government (especially infrastructure investment), pro-economic development, anti-trade, and a deal-cutter on the environment.
The last point shows in his fair-handed exposition of the environmental issues. Contamination of ground water near shale wells does happen. On the other hand, shale does less environmental damage than coal. One environmental disadvantage to shale gas production is that the wells are frequently much closer to human habitation. Surprisingly, more damage is done by surface spills and poorly constructed wells than by fracking (fracking has the advantage of the pithy and evocative name). Morris recommends conciliation on the part of the shale industry for pragmatic reasons. Mitigating your environmental impact keeps the regulator away.
The first point shows in how state-centric his approach remains. The three broad focuses of Comeback are on energy (and with it manufacturing), infrastructure, and healthcare. Morris talks about “reduced government activity.” He’s right that we’re spending less on infrastructure, but we’re certainly spending a whole lot more on government. It’s wrong to imply that we’ve engaged in any sort of austerity. Morris notes that federal taxpayers have a real interest in levees because the federal government foots most of the bill for flood insurance, but he should also note that we can continue to expect to foot most of the bill until we shift the cost onto the counties and states that stand to be harmed. He gets through an entire chapter on infrastructure without mentioning transfer payments once. As to healthcare, Morris recognizes healthcare isn’t just “deadweight loss” on the economy because the sector encompasses no small part of our high-tech sector. But he looks to Obamacare to solve our cost (“exploitation”) problem. He really doesn’t understand the other reason why healthcare costs are skyrocketing. Shifting too much of our healthcare spending to insurance has played a very large part, and Obamacare only exacerbates the problem. The government’s negotiating power is more likely to result in shortages than equilibrium pricing. He refers to construction in natural gas export facilities as “white elephant” investment while encouraging the government to shut down export (apparently the facilities are bad investments because the government might shut them down).
Comeback’s value is in giving facts about the current state of the shale industry. Morris’ analysis and prescriptions, on the other hand, leave much to be desired.
Disclosure: I received a complimentary e-copy of Comeback via NetGalley.
August 26, 2013
This book hits on four big areas that he believes will determine the strength of America's economic growth in the coming 15-20 years: restoring of manufacturing back to the US from China, energy from shale oil and gas, infrastructure rebuilding, and healthcare. He makes strong logical arguments backed by data and first hand interviews. However, his 'analysis' is sharply skewed by a liberal bias. In and of itself, there is nothing wrong with a strong, clear perspective, but in this case he allows his views to take too heavy a hand in selective data presentation. The longest section deals with energy from shale oil and reads a bit like a "for dummies" book to people like me with oil industry experience. However, if you are looking for a simple, introductory explanation of both the technology and the environmental issues in the shale oil debate, this is a good place to start.
February 19, 2014
This book had a great primer on the natural gas extraction / fracking process as well as a succinct discussion of the ramifications and potential of this newly accessible, domestically produced energy. He also makes a strong case for a broader infrastructure investment program (once the deficit is tamed) and a rambling case that health care spending increases are not as bad as advertised.
All politicking aside (of which there was plenty), there was some great information here that was easy to follow.
All politicking aside (of which there was plenty), there was some great information here that was easy to follow.
November 25, 2013
Was great to get a big picture view of shale and what obstacles it must overcome. The issue I have with the book is that the author can sound giddy at times and you can sense the excitement in his tone. I tend to be weary of books like that as they generally can be emotion-led and miss subtleties and other sides of arguments. While I know little of this topic, because of this tone, I had to discount the information and adjust for the bias (knocked off a star).
July 11, 2013
Pretty good analysis. Even though I am on opposite political sides to Morris, his thesis on the coming energy boom is mostly playing out. His take on the Energy majors and exporting the find is something to watch in the next five years.
October 3, 2013
Too much focus on the shale gas boom. It probably will help US but not convinced it's our savior
Displaying 1 - 7 of 7 reviews