Avoiding Armageddon: America, India, and Pakistan to the Brink and Back

by Bruce Riedel

India and Pakistan will be among the most important countries in the twenty-first century. In Avoiding Armageddon , Bruce Riedel clearly explains the challenge and the importance of successfully managing America's affairs with these two emerging powers and their toxic relationship. Born from the British Raj, the two nations share a common heritage, but they are different in many important ways. India is already the world's largest democracy and will soon become the planet's most populous nation. Pakistan, soon to be the fifth most populous country, has a troubled history of military coups, dictators, and harboring terrorists such as Osama bin Laden. The longtime rivals are nuclear powers, with tested weapons. They have fought four wars with each other and have gone to the brink of war several times. Meanwhile, U.S. presidents since Franklin Roosevelt have been increasingly involved in the region's affairs. In the past two decades alone, the White House has intervened several times to prevent nuclear confrontation on the subcontinent. South Asia clearly is critical to American national security, and the volatile relationship between India and Pakistan is the crucial factor determining whether the region can ever be safe and stable. Based on extensive research and Riedel's role in advising four U.S. presidents on the region, Avoiding Armageddon reviews the history of American diplomacy in South Asia, the crises that have flared in recent years, and the prospects for future crisis. Riedel provides an in-depth look at the Mumbai terrorist attack in 2008, the worst terrorist outrage since 9/11, and he concludes with authoritative analysis on what the future is likely to hold for America and the South Asia puzzle as well as recommendations on how Washington should proceed.

Genres: Politics, History, India, Nonfiction, Pakistan, International Relations, Current Affairs

230 pages, Hardcover

First published January 1, 2013

About the author

Bruce Riedel is a senior fellow and director of the Brookings Intelligence Project, part of the Brookings Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence. In addition, Riedel serves as a senior fellow in the Center for Middle East Policy. He retired in 2006 after 30 years of service at the Central Intelligence Agency, including postings overseas. He was a senior advisor on South Asia and the Middle East to the last four presidents of the United States in the staff of the National Security Council at the White House. He was also deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Near East and South Asia at the Pentagon and a senior advisor at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in Brussels.

Riedel was a member of President Bill Clinton’s peace process team and negotiated at Camp David and other Arab-Israeli summits and he organized Clinton’s trip to India in 2000. In January 2009, President Barack Obama asked him to chair a review of American policy towards Afghanistan and Pakistan, the results of which the president announced in a speech on March 27, 2009.

In 2011, Riedel served as an expert advisor to the prosecution of al Qaeda terrorist Omar Farooq Abdulmutallab in Detroit. In December 2011, Prime Minister David Cameron asked him to brief the United Kingdom’s National Security Council in London on Pakistan.

Riedel is a graduate of Brown (B.A.), Harvard (M.A.), and the Royal College of Defense Studies in London. He has taught at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service and Johns Hopkins University’s School for Advanced International Studies, and he has been a guest lecturer at Dartmouth, Harvard, Brown, and other universities. Riedel is a recipient of the Intelligence Medal of Merit and the Distinguished Intelligence Career Medal.

Reviews

[Onur Yilmaz · Rating 5 out of 5]

Bruce Riedel'in Türkçedeki ikinci kitabının orjinali de yine Brookings Enstitüsü tarafından basılmış.

Kitap yazarın tam olarak uzmanlık alanına giren ve dört ABD başkanına danışmanlık yaptığı Güney Asya bölgesiyle ilgili. ABD'nin Hindistan ve Pakistan arasındaki düşmanlığı idare etmekte gösterdiği performansı tarih boyunca analiz ediyor başarıyla. Daha önemlisi, Hindistan'ın ve Pakistan'ın bağımsızlık süreçlerinin mükemmel bir özeti var kitapta. Her iki ülkenin nükleer güç elde etmeleri, konvansiyonel savaşları ve ABD'nin müdahaleleri bütün açıklığıyla anlatılmış.

ABD'nin Asya politikalarını anlamak için son derece faydalı olacak ve oldukça akıcı bir dille yazılmış bir kitap.

[Anil Swarup · Rating 4 out of 5]

All Indians will perhaps love this book for what it contains. The book traces the history of Indo US relations. Having been senior adviser to four U S Presidents, Riedal's narration is based on facts. However what is even more interesting and fascinating is his analysis. His insights and analysis are based on first hand knowledge of what actually transpired between principal protagonists. Hence his suggestions appear logical and practical even in the context of Kashmir.

[Sagar Kale · Rating 5 out of 5]

Masterpiece. An excellent overview of the past of American diplomacy in South Asia, going beyond the usual analysis of India-Pakistan issues from a western perspective.

Bruce Riedel is an accomplished writer, that much is well known. Having already read some of his books, the expectations were high as it is. He exceeded those expectations. He has given an in depth analysis of the historical development of India-Pakistan relations, with special focus on the psychological factors that underpin the most acrimonious issues of the relationship. He also sheds light on the role played by the United States in not only cooling tensions at critical junctures, but also how the US policy towards the region has been misguided due to historical misunderstandings and lack of attention to the fine print.
His writing focuses on what most American writers tend to sweep under the rug - how US played into Pakistan's hands everytime, how, despite frequent opportunities, the White House failed to rein in an increasingly erratic regime that used terrorism as an instrument of state policy.
He also focuses on the irritants of India-US relations, especially the psychological barriers that were erected early in the cold war. His emphasis on the positives of the bilateral relations is vital to the analysis of the burgeoning relations between the existing and emerging superpowers of the world.

All said and done, a lot more scholarly analysis needs to go into India's approach towards the US, and then some. USA is probably the most important bilateral partner for India going forward. The possible emergence of a Democratic Security Diamond in the Indo-Pacific (India-US-Japan-Australia), coupled with India's growing relations with Israel have the potential to emerge as the World's firewall against terrorism. A possible emergence of an India-US-Israel triumvirate in counter-terrorism cooperation may be the next big thing in the world of counter-terrorism diplomacy. Expert analysis in these emerging phenomena may help officials navigate choppy waters, and help foster an ever strengthening partnership between the leading democracies of the world.

[Aurangzeb Alam · Rating 2 out of 5]

Extremely biased book that portray India as good boy and Pakistan as bad boy. Needs more objectivity.

[Craig Fiebig · Rating 4 out of 5]

A terrifying book with a below average volume of self-serving content expected from State Department bureaucrats ("I was the only other person on the room when ..."). Riedel authoritatively explains the risks and near certainty of war, quite possibly nuclear, between Pakistan and India. Reading about the volume and variety of conflict, fostered by the surprisingly deep relationship between ISI and al Queda is sobering.

The author loses his way when he suggests that dialogue, trade and India ceding Kashmir are the path to peace. Is he reading from Chamberlain's play book for Czechoslovakia? His notion that concession from India would 'reduce the incentive for Pakistan's nuclear weaponry' is silly. A point hammered home when the author quotes Spider-Man!

Despite its conclusive flaws this is a book worth reading, particularly for anyone who's read Stephen Coll's "Ghost Wars" or William Langewiesche's, "Atomic Bazaar". The details of Pakistan's support for al Queda and LeT alone are worth the read. Evil is abroad and trouble awaits us.

[Sunny Mantri · Rating 4 out of 5]

Bruce provides the inside story of how US and its presidents particularly has dealt with India and Pakistan over the last 7 decade. He is fairly critical of US policies in South Asia and states categorically that none of the approaches have worked so far and its time for people in Washington to reflect on their past actions and rethink their policies.

Bruce has written about a very interesting conversation that occurred between Nawaj Sharif had with Bill Clinton on 4th July 1999 (during the Kargil war). Clinton averted a nuclear war in the South Asia.

Bruce states that America is very good at conflict management but horrible at conflict resolution.

He also proposed solution how the Kashmir issue can be resolved. You can choose to agree or disagree but its worth a thought. He argues that if India wants to grow to its potential, it needs peace in the region.

A good read, although not as interesting as you thought it would be.

[Umair Mir · Rating 4 out of 5]

History has shown that American actions can make a bad situation worse, and it has shown only limited evidence that they can make things fundamentally better. The United States is best at conflict management, not conflict resolution. Brilliant Analysis of South Asia as a Strategic axis.The Authors effort has to be applauded for the objective piece of writing and analysis.

[Adithya Jain · Rating 4 out of 5]

A good book on the India-Pakistan-America triangle. Won't be useful if you're trying to learn India-Pak history. This is not the book for that. But this would be a useful book to study the whole thing from the American angle. And to get a first hand, natural and close account of American decision making and understanding of the whole relationship.

[Ram Krishnan · Rating 5 out of 5]

One of the best books to read on Indo-US-Pak relationship from their colonial years to 2013. The author has given unbiased views of the ups and downs in US relationship with these countries and it is a pageturner and wonderful read. Will recommend to anyone who wants to read the strategy of US in South Asia under various presidents

[Azhar Ali · Rating 4 out of 5]

Bruce once again showed us how firm grip he holdes on the international security issues. A possible point of flash for WWIII, could be India-Pakistan conflict and he points to what went and can go wrong in future.

[MA Deviah · Rating 4 out of 5]

Another incisive look at the realities so South Asia.

[Farhan Shakeel]

Good

[Saqib]

just want to read

[S P · Rating 4 out of 5]

It was a brutally honest retelling about the triangle relationship between India, USA and Pakistan by Bruce Riedel. He beautifully presented facts backing up his judgement being an impartial judge of the events. If you are a patriotic Indian, Pakistani, or American, you should read it to understand the issues that your country deals with and what is right and wrong about your country's policies. To be honest, I felt more proud of being an Indian after reading this book.

The book raised a few interesting questions in my mind and thus giving me direction to look into. First, throughout the book, Russia or USSR was used as an important character in the fiction, but always in the background. American rulers considered USSR as evil and were always wary about them, and tried to control them. But the author does not give any reason for it, reasonably so. Thanks to this book, I would like to read more in that context, to know if USA and USSR were just in power struggle or there actually was a good or bad.
Second, it is clear that until cold war got over, American rulers were overlooking at problems burgeoning in Pakistan, and India was getting into trouble just because she was Pakistan's perceived enemy. Post-world war, Bill Clinton saw potential in Indian economy, and pushed for business with India and thus shifting American policies in South Asia. Had cold war been continued post 1990s, should the relations have grown in the same direction? I doubt.

Lastly, I was almost about to give the book a 5 star, if the conclusion was not so hastily written. The author has put a lot of effort on the book, but became hasty, not very different in approach compared to the American rulers, when suggesting better alternatives. I feel, he tried to oversimplify the solutions, and did not consider many other alternatives. In addition, it raised the question, Why USA is worried about the issues in Indian and Pakistan citing that they are armed with nuclear weapons? Why USA is worried about "peace" between the two countries, whereas causing war else where? Does not that reinforce the idea that a country must arm herself with nuclear weapons if they do not want USA to trouble them? The author almost touches this loophole, but does not address it.