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The Accidental Superpower: Ten Years On
With a new "10 years later" epilogue for every chapter, comes an eye-opening assessment of American power and deglobalization in the bestselling tradition of The World is Flat and The Next 100 Years .
Near the end of the Second World War, the United States made a bold strategic gambit that rewired the international system. Empires were abolished and replaced by a global arrangement enforced by the U.S. Navy. With all the world's oceans safe for the first time in history, markets and resources were made available for everyone. Enemies became partners.
We think of this system as normal - it is not. We live in an artificial world on borrowed time.
In The Accidental Superpower , international strategist Peter Zeihan examines how the hard rules of geography are eroding the American commitment to free trade; how much of the planet is aging into a mass retirement that will enervate markets and capital supplies; and how, against all odds, it is the ever-ravenous American economy that - alone among the developed nations - is rapidly approaching energy independence. Combined, these factors are doing nothing less than overturning the global system and ushering in a new (dis)order.
For most, that is a disaster-in-waiting, but not for the Americans. The shale revolution allows Americans to sidestep an increasingly dangerous energy market. Only the United States boasts a youth population large enough to escape the sucking maw of global aging. Most important, geography will matter more than ever in a de-globalizing world, and America's geography is simply sublime.
Near the end of the Second World War, the United States made a bold strategic gambit that rewired the international system. Empires were abolished and replaced by a global arrangement enforced by the U.S. Navy. With all the world's oceans safe for the first time in history, markets and resources were made available for everyone. Enemies became partners.
We think of this system as normal - it is not. We live in an artificial world on borrowed time.
In The Accidental Superpower , international strategist Peter Zeihan examines how the hard rules of geography are eroding the American commitment to free trade; how much of the planet is aging into a mass retirement that will enervate markets and capital supplies; and how, against all odds, it is the ever-ravenous American economy that - alone among the developed nations - is rapidly approaching energy independence. Combined, these factors are doing nothing less than overturning the global system and ushering in a new (dis)order.
For most, that is a disaster-in-waiting, but not for the Americans. The shale revolution allows Americans to sidestep an increasingly dangerous energy market. Only the United States boasts a youth population large enough to escape the sucking maw of global aging. Most important, geography will matter more than ever in a de-globalizing world, and America's geography is simply sublime.
432 pages, Paperback
First published December 26, 2023
1161 people are currently reading
1104 people want to read
About the author
Peter Zeihan
8 books1,101 followersGeopolitical Strategist Peter Zeihan is a global energy, demographic and security expert.
Zeihan’s worldview marries the realities of geography and populations to a deep understanding of how global politics impact markets and economic trends, helping industry leaders navigate today’s complex mix of geopolitical risks and opportunities. With a keen eye toward what will drive tomorrow’s headlines, his irreverent approach transforms topics that are normally dense and heavy into accessible, relevant takeaways for audiences of all types.
In his career, Zeihan has ranged from working for the US State Department in Australia, to the DC think tank community, to helping develop the analytical models for Stratfor, one of the world’s premier private intelligence companies. Mr. Zeihan founded his own firm -- Zeihan on Geopolitics -- in 2012 in order to provide a select group of clients with direct, custom analytical products. Today those clients represent a vast array of sectors including energy majors, financial institutions, business associations, agricultural interests, universities and the U.S. military.
His freshman book, The Accidental Superpower, debuted in 2014. His sophomore project, The Absent Superpower, published in December 2016.
Find out more about Peter -- and your world -- at www.zeihan.com
Zeihan’s worldview marries the realities of geography and populations to a deep understanding of how global politics impact markets and economic trends, helping industry leaders navigate today’s complex mix of geopolitical risks and opportunities. With a keen eye toward what will drive tomorrow’s headlines, his irreverent approach transforms topics that are normally dense and heavy into accessible, relevant takeaways for audiences of all types.
In his career, Zeihan has ranged from working for the US State Department in Australia, to the DC think tank community, to helping develop the analytical models for Stratfor, one of the world’s premier private intelligence companies. Mr. Zeihan founded his own firm -- Zeihan on Geopolitics -- in 2012 in order to provide a select group of clients with direct, custom analytical products. Today those clients represent a vast array of sectors including energy majors, financial institutions, business associations, agricultural interests, universities and the U.S. military.
His freshman book, The Accidental Superpower, debuted in 2014. His sophomore project, The Absent Superpower, published in December 2016.
Find out more about Peter -- and your world -- at www.zeihan.com
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Displaying 1 - 30 of 115 reviews
October 9, 2015
Full disclosure: Like the author, I grew up in Iowa and live in Austin. Although those close to me will recognize many recurring themes between what they have heard (endlessly) from me for the last couple of decades and the content of this book, this is not my pseudonym and I did not write this book.
TLDR: This is a good read and is recommended.
Who will profit from reading this book:
Parents, business people, policy makers, teachers, young adults.
Downsides:
Like many bright, observant people who are not personally involved in technology or who have never spent a lot of time on the ground in various regions of the world, the author plays fast and loose with some assertions. In this case, he attributes too much near- to mid-term impact to additive manufacturing (3D printing) and makes armchair-quarterback level assumptions about other cultures.
Secondly, he suffers the same fundamental conceit as economists: the assumption of rational actors. Here, the author assumes that nation states and the people who control them will act in a rational manner most, if not all, of the time.
Unfortunately, history does not support this contention. The variables at play here, including the ability to use nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction, are completely absent from his analysis and projected outcomes.
The latter shortcoming undermines many of his projections for the general shape and outcome of the next few decades. While I am in violent, vociferous agreement with his foundational arguments related to demographics and logistics, his lack of acknowledgment of historically-proven, irrational human behavior undermines many of his primary projections.
In particular, he assumes that most of the rest of the world will spiral into decline and disarray and yet be perfectly fine with the U.S. reigning untouched as a shining tower of favorable demographics, logistics and ocean-spanning power projection.
Again, history does not support this contention. History shows us that nation states and stateless actors that are under existential threat, much less on the slippery slope of dissolution, will lash out with every tool at their disposal.
In this modern age those tools include weapons that make short order of carrier battle groups, cities and, in the case of nuclear weapons, wide areas of agricultural production.
Lastly, it requires some real perseverance to get past the "U.S.A.! U.S.A.!" level of boosterism, self-promotion and fundamentalist exceptionalism in the early chapters and into the more meaty and rewarding sections. As such, this work functions perfectly as Holy Writ for those so inclined. Unfortunately, that cohort is probably the least likely to fully comprehend and understand the implications of what follows in later chapters.
Upsides:
The author presents an accessible, cogent and well formed argument for the society-, culture- and history-shaping power of demographics, logistics and energy.
The book includes well designed maps, graphics and illustrations to drive home the lessons in the text. In fact, it is worth buying the book simply to skim the illustrations.
The author writes clearly and in terms that non-wonks and non-policy analysts can understand.
The reader will come away with a well founded understanding of how the world, and the societies and nations that make up the world, are determined, formed, rise and fall primarily due to demographic, logistic and energy factors.
In addition, the reader will be equipped with a set of projected outcomes for the next decade or two that have at least a reasonable chance of being realized, absent the factors noted above.
For many readers this will be a revealing, perhaps transcendental, book, especially if it is their first exposure to these building-block components of societies, nations and regions.
For all readers this work should help to inform their tactical and strategic choices for the near- and mid-term future.
Conclusion:
If you want to understand how the world got to where it is and where it is likely to go in the next few decades, you could do a lot worse than investing a few hours in this book. You will gain more from that investment than any 400 hours of watching screaming heads shout past each other on television, listening to rants on the radio or in perusing echo chambers of online "we are the intelligent ones" partisan news sources.
Many people make a lifetime out of seeking to prove hidden, secret conspiracies to explain the state of the world, what it is and how it got to be this way. The author does an excellent job of teaching the elementary components that actually drive human history, including what will cause most of the events that will shape the history of the next few decades.
TLDR: This is a good read and is recommended.
Who will profit from reading this book:
Parents, business people, policy makers, teachers, young adults.
Downsides:
Like many bright, observant people who are not personally involved in technology or who have never spent a lot of time on the ground in various regions of the world, the author plays fast and loose with some assertions. In this case, he attributes too much near- to mid-term impact to additive manufacturing (3D printing) and makes armchair-quarterback level assumptions about other cultures.
Secondly, he suffers the same fundamental conceit as economists: the assumption of rational actors. Here, the author assumes that nation states and the people who control them will act in a rational manner most, if not all, of the time.
Unfortunately, history does not support this contention. The variables at play here, including the ability to use nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction, are completely absent from his analysis and projected outcomes.
The latter shortcoming undermines many of his projections for the general shape and outcome of the next few decades. While I am in violent, vociferous agreement with his foundational arguments related to demographics and logistics, his lack of acknowledgment of historically-proven, irrational human behavior undermines many of his primary projections.
In particular, he assumes that most of the rest of the world will spiral into decline and disarray and yet be perfectly fine with the U.S. reigning untouched as a shining tower of favorable demographics, logistics and ocean-spanning power projection.
Again, history does not support this contention. History shows us that nation states and stateless actors that are under existential threat, much less on the slippery slope of dissolution, will lash out with every tool at their disposal.
In this modern age those tools include weapons that make short order of carrier battle groups, cities and, in the case of nuclear weapons, wide areas of agricultural production.
Lastly, it requires some real perseverance to get past the "U.S.A.! U.S.A.!" level of boosterism, self-promotion and fundamentalist exceptionalism in the early chapters and into the more meaty and rewarding sections. As such, this work functions perfectly as Holy Writ for those so inclined. Unfortunately, that cohort is probably the least likely to fully comprehend and understand the implications of what follows in later chapters.
Upsides:
The author presents an accessible, cogent and well formed argument for the society-, culture- and history-shaping power of demographics, logistics and energy.
The book includes well designed maps, graphics and illustrations to drive home the lessons in the text. In fact, it is worth buying the book simply to skim the illustrations.
The author writes clearly and in terms that non-wonks and non-policy analysts can understand.
The reader will come away with a well founded understanding of how the world, and the societies and nations that make up the world, are determined, formed, rise and fall primarily due to demographic, logistic and energy factors.
In addition, the reader will be equipped with a set of projected outcomes for the next decade or two that have at least a reasonable chance of being realized, absent the factors noted above.
For many readers this will be a revealing, perhaps transcendental, book, especially if it is their first exposure to these building-block components of societies, nations and regions.
For all readers this work should help to inform their tactical and strategic choices for the near- and mid-term future.
Conclusion:
If you want to understand how the world got to where it is and where it is likely to go in the next few decades, you could do a lot worse than investing a few hours in this book. You will gain more from that investment than any 400 hours of watching screaming heads shout past each other on television, listening to rants on the radio or in perusing echo chambers of online "we are the intelligent ones" partisan news sources.
Many people make a lifetime out of seeking to prove hidden, secret conspiracies to explain the state of the world, what it is and how it got to be this way. The author does an excellent job of teaching the elementary components that actually drive human history, including what will cause most of the events that will shape the history of the next few decades.
December 29, 2017
I think Zeihan hits the nail on the head in some cases, but very often misses the mark.
Zeihan’s key theory- that geography plays a huge influence on a country’s development, is a great framework through which to view and analyze history. Especially interesting were his views on capital flows in an economy and the key differences between capital rich and capital poor nations. In a country with poor geography capital is required to develop the land, this means less economic opportunities and upward mobility for the working classes- you can’t simply take a piece of fertile land and try to start your own farm business, you need capital to make land suitable for farming. But I think he truly shines in the discussion of demographics, the impact that various age groups have on the economy and how the demographic situation in different countries will affect their economic and political future.
Zeihan’s theory that the equity market will see declines when baby boomers are done growing their capital and begin pulling money out of risky investments (equities) to preserve their nest eggs in bonds is an easy one to act on. The prudent thing to do would be to buy bonds now while the equity market is on fire and bonds are seen as too conservative and are trading at low values. Another prudent move would be to reduce exposure to international equities- as all risky assets will be impacted by the boomer flight to safety. A third option could be an interesting one- cryptocurrencies. If the next 10-15 years sees international and financial upheaval, alternative currencies that are easily moved across borders and potentially hidden from overzealous governments can become an attractive proposition.
The biggest problem with the book occurs when the author claims that the current economic order will collapse because the USA will exit the world free trade system and stop guaranteeing energy supplies for our allies. He gives the following scenario of how this will occur:
1. The free trade system created under the Bretton Woods agreement allowed all American allies to engage in free trade and have access to markets and energy under the American protection umbrella
2. America’s economic system isn’t designed around exports, shale makes the US energy independent, so even access to the Middle East oil supplies is irrelevant to the USA- yet the USA bears the brunt of the cost.
3. Aging baby boomers pull capital out of the markets, causing a worldwide credit crunch and economic slowdown, this will mean the USA will have to cut spending and will no longer be able to secure the existing economic order that gives it no benefits
4. Collapse of free trade and free access to markets along with aging societies will rekindle economic and military competition for resources among nations
The biggest problem with this theory is the idea that the USA gets nothing from the current economic system because we’re not an export economy, thus we will cut funding for the maintenance of this system once the full impact of the boomer retirement hits. Yes, we are not an export economy, however we benefit from the current world order in several key ways:
1. Corporate profits
2. Access to debt markets
3. Access to cheap goods
4. We can still get pulled into global affairs
Foreign markets make up a large portion of American corporate revenues- according to S&P, 44% of S&P 500 member company sales come from outside the US. Some sectors like technology and heavy equipment makers have over half their sales come from abroad (Caterpillar is at 60% for example). Since 1993 exports of cars and parts to Mexico has gone from $10 billion to $70 billion. Trade with China has grown by 200%. American companies have over $1 trillion in foreign revenues stashed abroad. These corporate interests would likely lobby hard against any American exit from the existing global system.
America’s reputation for stability gives our government privileged access to the global debt markets, that is, we can usually borrow at lower rates than the rest of the world (“usually” means in normal political circumstances, our current political upheaval has made the interest rate higher for 10 year US bonds than their German equivalents). Foreigners own about 33% of US government debt (according to the US Treasury). This cheap access to debt financing will become more important as baby boomer retirement puts a strain on our public pension obligations.
Access to cheap goods and labor has benefited the American consumer and certain types of workers. According to The Economist, clothing costs today as much as it did in 1985, home furnishings the same as they did 35 years ago- on average Americans save $250 a year on trade with China alone. High skilled and college educated workers earn as much as a 50% premium thanks to more specialization and higher productivity at home (this premium was 30% in the 1970s). Of course, this increase in wage premium means that the wage gap has grown between the winners in this system and the low skilled and uneducated, but this trend doesn’t invalidate the main point that there is a clear benefit to Americans from participation in the global order (as long as the group that’s benefiting is larger and more powerful than the group being hurt, then the system will remain in place- it is in the interest of the “winners” to make sure that the “losers” also see the same benefits).
The choice to exit or remain in the global system may not be up to the USA. Geographic isolation doesn’t mean that by removing itself from the world order, the US would automatically avoid the chaos that Zeihan predicts will be left behind. In a world of ICBMs and cyber warfare, an ocean will not protect you against threats. If the loss of previously mentioned economic benefits won’t be enough to keep the USA from maintaining the current system, there could be several things that other world actors can do to keep the USA in:
Zeihan’s key theory- that geography plays a huge influence on a country’s development, is a great framework through which to view and analyze history. Especially interesting were his views on capital flows in an economy and the key differences between capital rich and capital poor nations. In a country with poor geography capital is required to develop the land, this means less economic opportunities and upward mobility for the working classes- you can’t simply take a piece of fertile land and try to start your own farm business, you need capital to make land suitable for farming. But I think he truly shines in the discussion of demographics, the impact that various age groups have on the economy and how the demographic situation in different countries will affect their economic and political future.
Zeihan’s theory that the equity market will see declines when baby boomers are done growing their capital and begin pulling money out of risky investments (equities) to preserve their nest eggs in bonds is an easy one to act on. The prudent thing to do would be to buy bonds now while the equity market is on fire and bonds are seen as too conservative and are trading at low values. Another prudent move would be to reduce exposure to international equities- as all risky assets will be impacted by the boomer flight to safety. A third option could be an interesting one- cryptocurrencies. If the next 10-15 years sees international and financial upheaval, alternative currencies that are easily moved across borders and potentially hidden from overzealous governments can become an attractive proposition.
The biggest problem with the book occurs when the author claims that the current economic order will collapse because the USA will exit the world free trade system and stop guaranteeing energy supplies for our allies. He gives the following scenario of how this will occur:
1. The free trade system created under the Bretton Woods agreement allowed all American allies to engage in free trade and have access to markets and energy under the American protection umbrella
2. America’s economic system isn’t designed around exports, shale makes the US energy independent, so even access to the Middle East oil supplies is irrelevant to the USA- yet the USA bears the brunt of the cost.
3. Aging baby boomers pull capital out of the markets, causing a worldwide credit crunch and economic slowdown, this will mean the USA will have to cut spending and will no longer be able to secure the existing economic order that gives it no benefits
4. Collapse of free trade and free access to markets along with aging societies will rekindle economic and military competition for resources among nations
The biggest problem with this theory is the idea that the USA gets nothing from the current economic system because we’re not an export economy, thus we will cut funding for the maintenance of this system once the full impact of the boomer retirement hits. Yes, we are not an export economy, however we benefit from the current world order in several key ways:
1. Corporate profits
2. Access to debt markets
3. Access to cheap goods
4. We can still get pulled into global affairs
Foreign markets make up a large portion of American corporate revenues- according to S&P, 44% of S&P 500 member company sales come from outside the US. Some sectors like technology and heavy equipment makers have over half their sales come from abroad (Caterpillar is at 60% for example). Since 1993 exports of cars and parts to Mexico has gone from $10 billion to $70 billion. Trade with China has grown by 200%. American companies have over $1 trillion in foreign revenues stashed abroad. These corporate interests would likely lobby hard against any American exit from the existing global system.
America’s reputation for stability gives our government privileged access to the global debt markets, that is, we can usually borrow at lower rates than the rest of the world (“usually” means in normal political circumstances, our current political upheaval has made the interest rate higher for 10 year US bonds than their German equivalents). Foreigners own about 33% of US government debt (according to the US Treasury). This cheap access to debt financing will become more important as baby boomer retirement puts a strain on our public pension obligations.
Access to cheap goods and labor has benefited the American consumer and certain types of workers. According to The Economist, clothing costs today as much as it did in 1985, home furnishings the same as they did 35 years ago- on average Americans save $250 a year on trade with China alone. High skilled and college educated workers earn as much as a 50% premium thanks to more specialization and higher productivity at home (this premium was 30% in the 1970s). Of course, this increase in wage premium means that the wage gap has grown between the winners in this system and the low skilled and uneducated, but this trend doesn’t invalidate the main point that there is a clear benefit to Americans from participation in the global order (as long as the group that’s benefiting is larger and more powerful than the group being hurt, then the system will remain in place- it is in the interest of the “winners” to make sure that the “losers” also see the same benefits).
The choice to exit or remain in the global system may not be up to the USA. Geographic isolation doesn’t mean that by removing itself from the world order, the US would automatically avoid the chaos that Zeihan predicts will be left behind. In a world of ICBMs and cyber warfare, an ocean will not protect you against threats. If the loss of previously mentioned economic benefits won’t be enough to keep the USA from maintaining the current system, there could be several things that other world actors can do to keep the USA in:
April 7, 2025
As the author would say - Hooo, boy.
It’s quite striking just how much Zeihan laid out in this book. I made the rookie error of reading his most recent book before this one, so this newly updated (although still out of date in this rapidly changing world) version was a great excuse to jump back in. I got the Audio title of ten years on to go with my paper copy of the original version that’s propped up the bookcase for too long.
As I write this, Trump has dropped Ukraine and (to some extent, everyone else) as principal military dependents, insulted and alienated most of Europe, threatened to annex Canada and made noises that throw into doubt the continuing existence of NATO. A spate of global tariffs have sent the globalised Bretton Woods beneficiaries into a tail spin for which they have literally no idea what to do next.
America’s lack of need for foreign energy means “drill, baby, drill” will render any globalist assumptions about The End of History as misguided as people who assumed everyone could still send cargo boats across the South China and Red Seas without the US Navy to protect them…
…And just about every word of it was written here in clear detail, in 2014. The most astounding take-home from Zeihan’s work is the idea that the collapse of the Bretton Woods world would have happened by 2030 regardless of which President was in the big chair.
It’s quite striking just how much Zeihan laid out in this book. I made the rookie error of reading his most recent book before this one, so this newly updated (although still out of date in this rapidly changing world) version was a great excuse to jump back in. I got the Audio title of ten years on to go with my paper copy of the original version that’s propped up the bookcase for too long.
As I write this, Trump has dropped Ukraine and (to some extent, everyone else) as principal military dependents, insulted and alienated most of Europe, threatened to annex Canada and made noises that throw into doubt the continuing existence of NATO. A spate of global tariffs have sent the globalised Bretton Woods beneficiaries into a tail spin for which they have literally no idea what to do next.
America’s lack of need for foreign energy means “drill, baby, drill” will render any globalist assumptions about The End of History as misguided as people who assumed everyone could still send cargo boats across the South China and Red Seas without the US Navy to protect them…
…And just about every word of it was written here in clear detail, in 2014. The most astounding take-home from Zeihan’s work is the idea that the collapse of the Bretton Woods world would have happened by 2030 regardless of which President was in the big chair.
September 13, 2020
The motive of reading this book was a speech by Peter Zeihan at the 2020 CFA annual conference. I was so impressed by Peter's dynamic and high-energy style delivering brilliant comments about geopolitics.
This book started with how geography shapes international interactions, primarily focusing on what makes some countries more powerful than other and how US became the most powerful among all modern economies. The author had a particular emphasis on how Bretton Woods, demographic time bombs and emergence of the shale industry shaped the world. The author also made predictions until 2030 - pretty accurate as we are approaching the future.
In the old world, easy transport is the magic ingredient of success. Cheap transportation means you can send your goods farther away in search of more profitable markets. This has been a method of making money wholly independent of government policy or whatever the new economic fad happens to be.
- England was successful at leading the industrial revolution with large volumes of capital to build the industrial base and educate the labor but failed at keeping the capital and supply chains imperially sourced.
- While England and the rest of Europe were enjoying an economic boom from the expansion in reach that deep water navigation provided, the Germans remained dependent upon expensive roads for transport, keeping them locked into pre-deepwater levels of economic development. However, the industrialization of Germany was carried out in less than 40 years while England took over 150 years.
- Among all, the United States has the better part of a continent to draw upon. Self-sufficient in everything that matters from energy to markets, they ventured out as a peer power without peer exposures. The balance of transport determines wealth and security. Deepwater navigation determines reach. Industrialization determines economic muscle tone. And the three combined shape everything from exposure to durability to economic cycles to outlook. The success in Free Trade and Cold War further reinforced American's power.
Everything that makes the global economy tick—from reliable access to global energy supplies to the ability to sell into the American market to the free movement of capital—is a direct outcome of the ongoing American commitment to Bretton Woods. But the Americans are no longer gaining a strategic benefit from that network, even as the economic cost continues. At some point, the Americans are going to reprioritize, and the tenets of Bretton Woods, the foundation of the free trade order, will simply end. That will hit hard enough, but it is only the first of three imminent convulsions that will tear the global order asunder.
- The timing is disruptive. The Americans are backing away from Bretton Woods, the global
demographic is inverting, and shale is paring back the single most energetic American connection to the wider world all at the same time. Any of these factors alone would shake the global system to its core. Together they will upend it completely.
- The near future will not be a hegemonic world. Hegemons are defined less by their power than by their needs. In a hegemony, the superpower has a goal in mind and so takes an interest in managing events, imposing an order upon the system. The Cold War was between two hegemonies.
The author predicted that the global financial wave will crest at some point between 2020 and 2024, during which 13 of the world's top 35 economies will be in ranks of the financial distressed. With over 90 percent of the developed world in that unfortunate basket, the availability of capital and credit for all will plummet.
- The kicker is that this—all of this: the dissolution of the free trade order, the global demographic inversion, the collapse of Europe and China—is all just a fleeting transition. The period of 2015 through 2030 will be about the final washing away of the old Cold War order. It isn’t the end of history. It is simply clearing the decks for what is next.
This book started with how geography shapes international interactions, primarily focusing on what makes some countries more powerful than other and how US became the most powerful among all modern economies. The author had a particular emphasis on how Bretton Woods, demographic time bombs and emergence of the shale industry shaped the world. The author also made predictions until 2030 - pretty accurate as we are approaching the future.
In the old world, easy transport is the magic ingredient of success. Cheap transportation means you can send your goods farther away in search of more profitable markets. This has been a method of making money wholly independent of government policy or whatever the new economic fad happens to be.
- England was successful at leading the industrial revolution with large volumes of capital to build the industrial base and educate the labor but failed at keeping the capital and supply chains imperially sourced.
- While England and the rest of Europe were enjoying an economic boom from the expansion in reach that deep water navigation provided, the Germans remained dependent upon expensive roads for transport, keeping them locked into pre-deepwater levels of economic development. However, the industrialization of Germany was carried out in less than 40 years while England took over 150 years.
- Among all, the United States has the better part of a continent to draw upon. Self-sufficient in everything that matters from energy to markets, they ventured out as a peer power without peer exposures. The balance of transport determines wealth and security. Deepwater navigation determines reach. Industrialization determines economic muscle tone. And the three combined shape everything from exposure to durability to economic cycles to outlook. The success in Free Trade and Cold War further reinforced American's power.
Everything that makes the global economy tick—from reliable access to global energy supplies to the ability to sell into the American market to the free movement of capital—is a direct outcome of the ongoing American commitment to Bretton Woods. But the Americans are no longer gaining a strategic benefit from that network, even as the economic cost continues. At some point, the Americans are going to reprioritize, and the tenets of Bretton Woods, the foundation of the free trade order, will simply end. That will hit hard enough, but it is only the first of three imminent convulsions that will tear the global order asunder.
- The timing is disruptive. The Americans are backing away from Bretton Woods, the global
demographic is inverting, and shale is paring back the single most energetic American connection to the wider world all at the same time. Any of these factors alone would shake the global system to its core. Together they will upend it completely.
- The near future will not be a hegemonic world. Hegemons are defined less by their power than by their needs. In a hegemony, the superpower has a goal in mind and so takes an interest in managing events, imposing an order upon the system. The Cold War was between two hegemonies.
The author predicted that the global financial wave will crest at some point between 2020 and 2024, during which 13 of the world's top 35 economies will be in ranks of the financial distressed. With over 90 percent of the developed world in that unfortunate basket, the availability of capital and credit for all will plummet.
- The kicker is that this—all of this: the dissolution of the free trade order, the global demographic inversion, the collapse of Europe and China—is all just a fleeting transition. The period of 2015 through 2030 will be about the final washing away of the old Cold War order. It isn’t the end of history. It is simply clearing the decks for what is next.
January 24, 2024
This 2023 book is an update of a work Zeihan first published in 2014. It reproduces the original text and adds updates for the chapters as needed. The book is an excellent introduction to the subject of geopolitics because of the many details and examples he provides in laying out the elements of the field of stujdyh. He is a geopolitical analyst whose work combines basic geography with demographics, economics, international relations and technology. He has three other books combining these diverse topics: The Absent Superpower, Disunited Nations, and The End of the World is Just the Beginning. It is an impressive collection, each worthy of reading.
A recurrent theme is his optimistic outlook for the future of the United States based on the blessings bestowed by American geography: abundant arable land, an outstanding river based transport system, climate, and natural resources. He places great importance on the shale resources that provide the United States with oil and natural gas in quantities that make the country energy independent. Also important in his analysis is the fact that the United States borders on only two other nations, Canada and Mexico, both of which serve as important trade partners.
Overall this book provides a survey of world conditions, trends, and national leaders; all of these are played against the potential impact on the United States. This series of interactions he notes have been greatly shaped by the 1944 Bretton Woods agreement for the post-war world. This agreement, proposed by the United States had several principal elements. First, it opened American markets to exports from any of the signatory nations without customs or quotas. Second, the United States would "protect all maritime trade, regardless of who was buying or selling the cargo." Third, conference negotiations "were responsible for creating the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development; the institutions that helped knit devastated Europe back together." What was the price of this bit of American largesse? As Zeihan writes in Absent Superpower, "this all came with a singular catch; you had to let the Americans run your security policies."
Though not without blips, the system worked well, allowing the economic recovery of Europe and financial benefit even more broadly. Now, however, America's, and the World's, circumstances have changed. Is America self sufficient enough to drop its global protective role, is there enough willpower to fund and operate a global maritime police force, or does America face a period in which it can be independent of broad global responsibilities? Zeihan offers interesting evidence and discussion of these questions.
A recurrent theme is his optimistic outlook for the future of the United States based on the blessings bestowed by American geography: abundant arable land, an outstanding river based transport system, climate, and natural resources. He places great importance on the shale resources that provide the United States with oil and natural gas in quantities that make the country energy independent. Also important in his analysis is the fact that the United States borders on only two other nations, Canada and Mexico, both of which serve as important trade partners.
Overall this book provides a survey of world conditions, trends, and national leaders; all of these are played against the potential impact on the United States. This series of interactions he notes have been greatly shaped by the 1944 Bretton Woods agreement for the post-war world. This agreement, proposed by the United States had several principal elements. First, it opened American markets to exports from any of the signatory nations without customs or quotas. Second, the United States would "protect all maritime trade, regardless of who was buying or selling the cargo." Third, conference negotiations "were responsible for creating the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development; the institutions that helped knit devastated Europe back together." What was the price of this bit of American largesse? As Zeihan writes in Absent Superpower, "this all came with a singular catch; you had to let the Americans run your security policies."
Though not without blips, the system worked well, allowing the economic recovery of Europe and financial benefit even more broadly. Now, however, America's, and the World's, circumstances have changed. Is America self sufficient enough to drop its global protective role, is there enough willpower to fund and operate a global maritime police force, or does America face a period in which it can be independent of broad global responsibilities? Zeihan offers interesting evidence and discussion of these questions.
January 20, 2024
As always with Zeihan, unsurprisingly good. This book is a bit more interesting compared to others as it not an original but a new edition of the 10 years old book revisiting the old preditictions and explaining where and why they worked or did not work. Generally, I agree with Zeihan's assesments but a lot of times they feel a little extrapolary for me as they don't(and obvioulsly really can't) take into account the wildcards like breakthrough research, terrorism or sudden policy change brought upon by the former underdogs that might change the way certain countries work a lot, at least in the medium timeline. Anyways, this is a worthy read, especially for those who might contemplate moving countries to settle down somewhere in the next few years because it explains how the world might look like in the light of creeping failure and dissolution of the Bretton Woods order.
June 24, 2024
Interesting takes and insights on global relations, obviously with a focus on the geographical aspect. His admission to certain predictions being less than accurate was also refreshing and showed a sense of humility that I didn’t expect from the rest of the book which failed to even acknowledge the possibility that any of his predictions would not take place. I also appreciated that the author was upfront with his political leanings so that his geopolitical opinions could be accurately viewed though the lens of his own beliefs.
Alas many of his opinions are fairly conclusory and done more with the benefit of hindsight rather than proper and complete analysis. A common sentiment was that the history of the developed world could only have happened as it did; a theory which I don’t personally subscribe to. Ultimately he made further predictions about the state of the world in years to come, so maybe on the twenty years on update I’ll return to eat my words.
Alas many of his opinions are fairly conclusory and done more with the benefit of hindsight rather than proper and complete analysis. A common sentiment was that the history of the developed world could only have happened as it did; a theory which I don’t personally subscribe to. Ultimately he made further predictions about the state of the world in years to come, so maybe on the twenty years on update I’ll return to eat my words.
August 19, 2020
If you love a good analysis of geopolitical history, economics, geography and demographics, then this book is for you. This is one of the best non-fiction books I have read in years and I highly recommend.
“the Americans will return to the role that they played before World War II: a global power without global interests. No more guarding the Korean DMZ. No bases in Qatar. No Checkpoint Charlie. No patrolling the sea lanes. When it comes to the wider world, the Americans will just not care.”
“The United States won’t just lose interest in global energy security; it will lose interest in global energy altogether. The United States won’t just lose interest in global trade supply-chain security, it will lose interest in global trade in its entirety. The only pressing need for the Americans to go beyond their shores will be to guarantee their own shipping, and with evolving technologies like shale and 3-D printing, shipping is already accounting for a shrinking, not growing, percentage of American GDP.”
At the end of WWII, many global governments thought that the US would impose a Pax-Americana ala historical global empires. However, they were surprised when at the Bretton Woods conference of 1946, the US recommended (imposed) a new order under which the US guaranteed open trade, free sea lanes protected by the only global navy remaining – the US Navy and a military umbrella for those allied with the US.
Zeihan frames the current geopolitical situation as the drawdown of the global economic system that the United States imposed upon the free world at Bretton Woods after its victory in World War II. Zeihan argues that the United States used its overwhelming naval superiority to build a global trade network as a means towards the end of soviet containment, but is belatedly realizing that the Soviets are gone, that the rest of the world’s markets don’t have much to offer because they are entering dire economic straits due to aging demographies, and that America is insulated both geographically and, thanks to shale oil, energy independent[14].
With that in mind Zeihan predicts an American disengagement from the world, which in turn would leave the other nations of the globe to fend for themselves in securing access to food and energy commodities. Zeihan predicts an immanent period of international disorder:
American disinterest in the world means that American security guarantees are unlikely to be honored. Competitions held in check for the better part of a century will return. Wars of opportunism will come back into fashion. History will restart. Areas that we have come to think of as calm will seethe as countries struggle for resources, capital, and markets. For countries unable to secure supplies (regardless of means), there is a more than minor possibility that they will simply fall out of the modern world altogether.
“This transformation was—and remains—utterly dependent upon the current global setup. In the Bretton Woods world, the Americans guarantee Saudi security in order to protect energy flows, guarantee energy flows in order to enable trade, and guarantee trade in order to maintain their security alliances. But in a post–Bretton Woods shale era, the Americans have no need for the security alliances or the trade or the energy flows, which means they have no need for the Saudis. The no-questions-asked protection that the Americans have extended to Riyadh is about to be lifted wholesale. Dealing with the aftermath will require admitting Saudi Arabia’s fundamental weakness: It doesn’t have an indigenous workforce. Since the discovery of oil, the Saudis have been able to end their nomadic existence, hire outsiders to do all their work for them, massively expand their population under the aegis of a generous welfare state, and in general become impressively lazy and gloriously fat. The tendency to import labor has become so omnipresent that roughly one-third of their entire population—some 8 million people—are expatriates and guest workers. There are so many foreigners working in the kingdom that the twenty-and thirty-something bulge in the Saudi population pyramid is actually entirely made up of temporary foreign workers, particularly men.”
As much as I enjoyed, there are a couple of aspects that I think the author failed to address:
1. The willingness and ability of America’s enemies, today primarily China and to a lesser extent, Russia to attack US interest without resorting to traditional military force on the US homeland.
2. Our unique American ability to be our own worst enemy. Our greatest enemy today may be those who wish to destroy the unique American history, experience and existence from within; with a new form of socialism/Marxism. In other words, there are many in America who want to “kill the golden goose” and eat it.
Again, a great read and I highly recommend; now on to Mr. Zeihan’s latest book “Disunited Nations: The Scramble for Power in an Ungoverned World”.
“the Americans will return to the role that they played before World War II: a global power without global interests. No more guarding the Korean DMZ. No bases in Qatar. No Checkpoint Charlie. No patrolling the sea lanes. When it comes to the wider world, the Americans will just not care.”
“The United States won’t just lose interest in global energy security; it will lose interest in global energy altogether. The United States won’t just lose interest in global trade supply-chain security, it will lose interest in global trade in its entirety. The only pressing need for the Americans to go beyond their shores will be to guarantee their own shipping, and with evolving technologies like shale and 3-D printing, shipping is already accounting for a shrinking, not growing, percentage of American GDP.”
At the end of WWII, many global governments thought that the US would impose a Pax-Americana ala historical global empires. However, they were surprised when at the Bretton Woods conference of 1946, the US recommended (imposed) a new order under which the US guaranteed open trade, free sea lanes protected by the only global navy remaining – the US Navy and a military umbrella for those allied with the US.
Zeihan frames the current geopolitical situation as the drawdown of the global economic system that the United States imposed upon the free world at Bretton Woods after its victory in World War II. Zeihan argues that the United States used its overwhelming naval superiority to build a global trade network as a means towards the end of soviet containment, but is belatedly realizing that the Soviets are gone, that the rest of the world’s markets don’t have much to offer because they are entering dire economic straits due to aging demographies, and that America is insulated both geographically and, thanks to shale oil, energy independent[14].
With that in mind Zeihan predicts an American disengagement from the world, which in turn would leave the other nations of the globe to fend for themselves in securing access to food and energy commodities. Zeihan predicts an immanent period of international disorder:
American disinterest in the world means that American security guarantees are unlikely to be honored. Competitions held in check for the better part of a century will return. Wars of opportunism will come back into fashion. History will restart. Areas that we have come to think of as calm will seethe as countries struggle for resources, capital, and markets. For countries unable to secure supplies (regardless of means), there is a more than minor possibility that they will simply fall out of the modern world altogether.
“This transformation was—and remains—utterly dependent upon the current global setup. In the Bretton Woods world, the Americans guarantee Saudi security in order to protect energy flows, guarantee energy flows in order to enable trade, and guarantee trade in order to maintain their security alliances. But in a post–Bretton Woods shale era, the Americans have no need for the security alliances or the trade or the energy flows, which means they have no need for the Saudis. The no-questions-asked protection that the Americans have extended to Riyadh is about to be lifted wholesale. Dealing with the aftermath will require admitting Saudi Arabia’s fundamental weakness: It doesn’t have an indigenous workforce. Since the discovery of oil, the Saudis have been able to end their nomadic existence, hire outsiders to do all their work for them, massively expand their population under the aegis of a generous welfare state, and in general become impressively lazy and gloriously fat. The tendency to import labor has become so omnipresent that roughly one-third of their entire population—some 8 million people—are expatriates and guest workers. There are so many foreigners working in the kingdom that the twenty-and thirty-something bulge in the Saudi population pyramid is actually entirely made up of temporary foreign workers, particularly men.”
As much as I enjoyed, there are a couple of aspects that I think the author failed to address:
1. The willingness and ability of America’s enemies, today primarily China and to a lesser extent, Russia to attack US interest without resorting to traditional military force on the US homeland.
2. Our unique American ability to be our own worst enemy. Our greatest enemy today may be those who wish to destroy the unique American history, experience and existence from within; with a new form of socialism/Marxism. In other words, there are many in America who want to “kill the golden goose” and eat it.
Again, a great read and I highly recommend; now on to Mr. Zeihan’s latest book “Disunited Nations: The Scramble for Power in an Ungoverned World”.
November 1, 2024
This book was original, intelligent, informative, and fascinating. Its premise is that the Bretton Woods agreement (specifically the American commitment to provide naval security to facilitate global free trade) propped up the entire globe. Now, in an America where the agreement’s perceived strategic advantages are declining, the global economy and the entire economy of many dependent nations will depress or collapse with the lack of free trade. This book is an examination and long form prediction for how a receding level of globalization, global trade, and free trade protected by the US Navy will affect many countries and regions across the globe.
Zeihan’s method of prediction considers two main factors in country and regional dynamics: geography and population pyramids.
I enjoyed this book for the amount of original thought that went into it (significantly more than most books I’ve read). I enjoyed it because someone finally explained to me why American defense spending is so high, and how protecting global free trade via maritime security is strategically advantageous to the US. I enjoyed it because I learned a lot about several countries I knew very little about, including Uzbekistan, Turkey, and others. I also enjoyed it because he acknowledged the American propensity to overreact and exercise little to no perspective in foreign policy, which made me feel less crazy.
I did not enjoy a few major sections in the book. Something that goes unaddressed is that when the supposed cessation of US naval protection of trade occurs, Zeihan asserts that there will be no more international trade; it will all break down. What I don’t get is - won’t other nations with industrial bases (Germany comes to mind) be able to rebuild a Navy to escort their own exports? Won’t other nations create smaller but effective trade-security alliances? I just don’t understand how we will immediately go from free global trade to a free-for-all, and you’re stuck with what you were geographically endowed. I’m probably ignorant but that seemed half-baked.
Another dislike - he massively undersold Chinese strength and capabilities, seemingly to prop up his argument that America will again be the lone world hegemon in ~2040.
Next dislike. There seems to be a nonzero amount of fear-mongering, specifically with regard to the Mexican drug cartels / drug war. It seemed Mexico received his most baseless postulations coupled with his most inflammatory and sensationalized language.
Last, I was personally unable to find comfort in the idea that America is probably going to be okay in the long term, whereas other countries aren’t, when the prospect for dying in some empires’ twilight wars was described as a reasonable likelihood. China and Russia’s centralized governments make their potential collapse as global powers scarier because they’re more likely to lash out and rear their head before the end. Don’t get me wrong - my biological clock is certainly ticking to die in a foreign land for something that I don’t believe in, and frankly, something that doesn’t involve me, but it’s still a bit of a sad one.
Zeihan’s method of prediction considers two main factors in country and regional dynamics: geography and population pyramids.
I enjoyed this book for the amount of original thought that went into it (significantly more than most books I’ve read). I enjoyed it because someone finally explained to me why American defense spending is so high, and how protecting global free trade via maritime security is strategically advantageous to the US. I enjoyed it because I learned a lot about several countries I knew very little about, including Uzbekistan, Turkey, and others. I also enjoyed it because he acknowledged the American propensity to overreact and exercise little to no perspective in foreign policy, which made me feel less crazy.
I did not enjoy a few major sections in the book. Something that goes unaddressed is that when the supposed cessation of US naval protection of trade occurs, Zeihan asserts that there will be no more international trade; it will all break down. What I don’t get is - won’t other nations with industrial bases (Germany comes to mind) be able to rebuild a Navy to escort their own exports? Won’t other nations create smaller but effective trade-security alliances? I just don’t understand how we will immediately go from free global trade to a free-for-all, and you’re stuck with what you were geographically endowed. I’m probably ignorant but that seemed half-baked.
Another dislike - he massively undersold Chinese strength and capabilities, seemingly to prop up his argument that America will again be the lone world hegemon in ~2040.
Next dislike. There seems to be a nonzero amount of fear-mongering, specifically with regard to the Mexican drug cartels / drug war. It seemed Mexico received his most baseless postulations coupled with his most inflammatory and sensationalized language.
Last, I was personally unable to find comfort in the idea that America is probably going to be okay in the long term, whereas other countries aren’t, when the prospect for dying in some empires’ twilight wars was described as a reasonable likelihood. China and Russia’s centralized governments make their potential collapse as global powers scarier because they’re more likely to lash out and rear their head before the end. Don’t get me wrong - my biological clock is certainly ticking to die in a foreign land for something that I don’t believe in, and frankly, something that doesn’t involve me, but it’s still a bit of a sad one.
May 31, 2024
The balance of transport determines wealth and security. Deepwater navigation determines reach. Industrialization determines economic muscle tone. The three combined shape everything from exposure to durability to economic cycles to outlook.
The American free trade strategy at its core may be artificial and driven by strategic calculus, but they have resulted in the greatest era of peace and prosperity the world has ever known. Everyone can play the game of economic and social development, and play in relative safety.
One of the few constants through human history is that when a resource - whether it be mineral, agriculture, labor, financial, or market - is in short supply, enterprising, capable, creative countries will go to great lengths to seize: what they can for themselves.
Simply put, less disease means better health and longer life spans, and that allows for higher levels of worker skill and tax paying.
Low capital generation from a lack of cheap transport, high capital demand from infrastructure, limited land due to topography, a political/economic system geared toward regional issues-sharply limit the ability of the country to urbanize, much less industrialize.
Countries with horrible geographies may have a moment - historically speaking- in the sun, but they will never succeed at the “long game.”
The American free trade strategy at its core may be artificial and driven by strategic calculus, but they have resulted in the greatest era of peace and prosperity the world has ever known. Everyone can play the game of economic and social development, and play in relative safety.
One of the few constants through human history is that when a resource - whether it be mineral, agriculture, labor, financial, or market - is in short supply, enterprising, capable, creative countries will go to great lengths to seize: what they can for themselves.
Simply put, less disease means better health and longer life spans, and that allows for higher levels of worker skill and tax paying.
Low capital generation from a lack of cheap transport, high capital demand from infrastructure, limited land due to topography, a political/economic system geared toward regional issues-sharply limit the ability of the country to urbanize, much less industrialize.
Countries with horrible geographies may have a moment - historically speaking- in the sun, but they will never succeed at the “long game.”
January 8, 2024
Very insightful book that reads surprisingly easy for a book about geopolitics. Also, the book approaches rather morbid thoughts and subjects lightheartedly and with optimism (well if you live in the us).
October 11, 2024
Dumb book making shot in the dark predictions, based on an understanding of geopolitics so simplified it's basically all meaningless, most of which have already shown to be wrong.
January 12, 2026
Very entertaining, but logic is a tad suspect.
America is going to win no matter what.
Everywhere else is going to shit.
Why? Rivers.
Institutions? Technology? Human innovation?
No no no no. Rivers.
But honestly the importance of geography is argued well, and Zeihan’s predictions have been impressively accurate.
That said, he seems to underestimate the degree to which human innovation could turn the tables as far as who has the advantage. He discusses how the difficult English Channel led to British naval dominance but doesn’t apply this broadly.
I think he also really underestimates US dependence on Taiwan.
But it’s a really enjoyable read. It got me excited about topics I don’t usually concern myself with. Now I’m on the edge of my seat wondering whether more shadow vessel seizures will disrupt sanctioned oil supply chains.
America is going to win no matter what.
Everywhere else is going to shit.
Why? Rivers.
Institutions? Technology? Human innovation?
No no no no. Rivers.
But honestly the importance of geography is argued well, and Zeihan’s predictions have been impressively accurate.
That said, he seems to underestimate the degree to which human innovation could turn the tables as far as who has the advantage. He discusses how the difficult English Channel led to British naval dominance but doesn’t apply this broadly.
I think he also really underestimates US dependence on Taiwan.
But it’s a really enjoyable read. It got me excited about topics I don’t usually concern myself with. Now I’m on the edge of my seat wondering whether more shadow vessel seizures will disrupt sanctioned oil supply chains.
January 31, 2025
A hilariously confident description of the current and future global balance of power. I listened to the audible version read by the author and was reminded of Jim Cramer recommending stocks. He nearly yodels words implying certainty such as "always." I'm not sure if he is just just ill informed outside of his field of geography. Or, if he is consciously cherry-picking economic and military facts to support his quasi forecasts. Quasi because his forecasts, although dramatic, are too ambiguous to be definitively falsified. If you've read Superforecasters, you'll notice the author might be described as a hedgehog. He knows one big thing, and it drives his forecast. Sometimes, the big thing is totally out of date and wrong, leading to a silly conclusion. For example, claiming the that US Navy is and will remain more powerful by far than the rest of the world combined because the US has 12 supercarrier battle groups and the rest of the world combined may have half that if we're being charitable. It's been clear from before 2013 that small numbers of exquisite surface ships have declined in military significance not to mentioned that power in all peer conflicts is measured by production capacity rather than current stock of weaponry since in the world wars equipment attrition was often greater than 100% per year. Therefore, the fact that China's ship production capacity dwarfs that of the rest of the world should not be ignored as this author does. On the other hand, dramatic forecasts are entertaining to read even if they are wrong. So, two stars for entertainment value and for an example of how to construct plausible sounding arguments for policies of US isolation.
December 24, 2024
I've listened to a lot of Zeihan politics and read two of his other books (Disunited Nations: Succeeding in a World Where No One Gets Along, The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization) and wanted to read the book that started it all. :)
Zeihan makes many great calls (e.g. Russia) in this book (written in 2013), but seems to get tons wrong - Japan at war with China. In general, I would say his overall premise that 2015-2030 would be tumultuous was definitely spot on. Perhaps, his analysis of causes is correct, but how he saw them playing out was not always right.
Highlight - the Maps! This is true for all his books - lots of maps with great info.
In general, if you read his later books first, I would say he has briefly summarized the information in this book in those later books.
Zeihan makes many great calls (e.g. Russia) in this book (written in 2013), but seems to get tons wrong - Japan at war with China. In general, I would say his overall premise that 2015-2030 would be tumultuous was definitely spot on. Perhaps, his analysis of causes is correct, but how he saw them playing out was not always right.
Highlight - the Maps! This is true for all his books - lots of maps with great info.
In general, if you read his later books first, I would say he has briefly summarized the information in this book in those later books.
September 11, 2025
I think the author is a pretty smart but he suffers from underestimating the nothing every happens guy. The geographical determinism gets a bit out of control. America's geography is good but it does have a lot of issues. Unifying the different regions into a coherent government has taken centuries. The South is full of bugs and swamps. The prairies were hard to farm until stronger steel was in plows. New England is rocky and hard to farm. The West Coast is so far away from the other centers that its basically independent. The Southwest is literally a desert wasteland. Alaska is uninhabitable. The Rockies are the worst mountain range on the continent. It took serious effort to conquer the frontier and he just chalks it up to river systems. Its almost insulting to take someone's destiny out of their hands and tie their fate to a map.
He also does the standard neoliberal nonsense about how we need 4 billion immigrants now. He explicitly states cheap labor is good. He admits the ethnic Russians aging could be an issue while minorities in Russia grow but that's thrown out the window in America in Europe.
Overall, the international order isn't gonna break down in 5 seconds if trump is a meanie.
He also does the standard neoliberal nonsense about how we need 4 billion immigrants now. He explicitly states cheap labor is good. He admits the ethnic Russians aging could be an issue while minorities in Russia grow but that's thrown out the window in America in Europe.
Overall, the international order isn't gonna break down in 5 seconds if trump is a meanie.
February 24, 2024
Glad I waited long enough to read this updated version. Geopolitical predictions are super interesting. Having a 10 year look back at those predictions is even more interesting.
Somehow, the world seems smaller and less complicated when looked at through the eyes of geopolitics. And if American, a lot less stressful. Although this book gives plenty of voice to things Americans could do better if we only understood the interplay better.
Somehow, the world seems smaller and less complicated when looked at through the eyes of geopolitics. And if American, a lot less stressful. Although this book gives plenty of voice to things Americans could do better if we only understood the interplay better.
April 19, 2024
Zeihan is still a master of making dry topics entertaining. That entertainment comes with a cost. Zeihan presents many facts and crisises in a very digestible manner. The conclusions he draws from those facts tends to overflow with hyperbole.
It was fun to see the author revisit each of his predictions 10 years later.
I would recommend any of Zeihan's books to anyone interested in geopolitics. But I would warn the reader to take his future predictions with a grain of salt.
It was fun to see the author revisit each of his predictions 10 years later.
I would recommend any of Zeihan's books to anyone interested in geopolitics. But I would warn the reader to take his future predictions with a grain of salt.
August 28, 2025
My review might be way too biased. First, I didn't enjoy the narration (some voices just grate on you), second I didn't enjoy the extreme bias to what US have been doing since the second world war as all right and good and painting the rest of the countries black. However, it's still a valuable outlook especially if you are interested in geopolitics and how much geography plays a role in building of an empire.
June 24, 2015
What the Future Holds
This is an excellent book I enjoyed immensely. Focusing on geography, geopolitics and demography, the predictions are fascinating and believable. If you think most of the world is going to hell in a hand basket, well - it is, except America, for some very good reasons.
This is an excellent book I enjoyed immensely. Focusing on geography, geopolitics and demography, the predictions are fascinating and believable. If you think most of the world is going to hell in a hand basket, well - it is, except America, for some very good reasons.
March 24, 2022
Looks at modern nations through the lens of river transport, agriculture industries, energy reserve and exploration, and relative demographic sizes. How nations with less young people contribute to economic declines and how the US sits well relative to basically all other developed or developing nations in these factors.
January 26, 2024
People need to read more Zeihan! Nothing short of spectacular, especially reading this 10 years on from his original installment of Accidental. He got some things right, and some things wrong - but that's the fickle nature of international relations! Five stars.
February 19, 2024
Fascinating look at how geography shapes countries' and regions' economies, politics, and way of life. The U.S. engineered a rebuilding and reorganizing at the end of WW II that shaped our current globalized world, but the author argues that's going away in the coming decades.
June 25, 2019
Excellent read!
Great book to explain some of the fundamental building blocks that place the United States in different category than other near-peers.
Great book to explain some of the fundamental building blocks that place the United States in different category than other near-peers.
February 9, 2021
Thought provoking
A thought provoking look into how geopolitics can shape future relationships between major world powers. A must read for strategist and intelligence analysts.
A thought provoking look into how geopolitics can shape future relationships between major world powers. A must read for strategist and intelligence analysts.
July 24, 2023
Has not stood the test of time. Zeihan is an establishment neoconservative shill.
June 2, 2019
A provocative work written in an accessible and persuasive style, it is worth reading and considering, even though ultimately Zeihan fails to work through the propositions he makes and provide an argument that withstands critical review. It is a book mostly about geopolitics, married with ideas about technology and demographics. While he briefly protests that geopolitics are not deterministic, he turns around to make exactly that kind of argument for the rest of the book. For instance, "since the root of American power is geographic and not the result of any particular plan or ideology, American power is incidental." (p 9). So Zeihan makes great arguments about the North American river basins and coastal island chains and access to both oceans and abundant raw materials and agriculturally fruitful plains, etc. But he fails to argue why, if these geographical features make "American" power so inevitable, the Native Americans did not already enjoy such power long before Columbus ever showed up. Or why the French, who were the first to control many of the key river basins, did not maximize this power to outshine the British colonists, not to mention the Spanish, who were present in the Americas before either of those. Indeed, it is precisely the unique nature of British social and political order at the time of colonization that permitted their colonists to exploit the geographic advantages North America offered to all comers in the way that they did, resulting in the "incidental" American power. Now American social and political organization may have been impacted in ways that Zeihan described (abundant capital, sparse populations over a vast land, etc.) and evolved apart from its British origins, but it had a starting point distinct from other would-be powers who might have benefited from North America's geography.
The above noted fundamental flaw to the entire book and all of Zeihan's ultimate arguments does not mean that he is not worth reading or that he does not make a number of important subordinate points to consider. For instance, he notes that geography is static but technology can move (so again, if plan or ideology is as meaningless as Zeihan makes it out to be, superior European technology could and should have flowed to those Native Americans already enjoying America's geography and left them the masters of the world). Zeihan makes points about the importance of navigable waterways to the success of societies (a point well echoed by Thomas Sowell, among others), the importance of defensibility (presence of oceans, vast deserts mountains, or lack thereof, for instance), factors that can contribute toward free or intrusive governments, factors that can add to tensions among neighbors or permit a less aggressive coexistence, etc. However, even here his argument falls upon itself--he points out Iran's completely terrible geopolitical situation then notes that the Iranian people, recognizing their geographic weaknesses, compensated for them and prevailed. Ergo, political and social organization overcame the "inevitable" geography.
Zeihan's demographic arguments are his most persuasive, though obviously demography is independent of geography per se, especially in a world of modern global transport where food need not be locally produced. He notes correctly that the coming (and already present) underpopulation crisis will collapse the welfare state and many societies altogether owing to their demographic unsustainability. He then goes on to make a number of interesting predictions, some of the reasonable, some of them contrary to his own arguments. If Germany and Japan and Russia are in such critical and almost irreversible demographic crisis, for instance, how can they become hegemons or troublemakers very far into the future? Despite their present advantages, would not their demographic collapse tear at the fabric of their society that their present technological and industrial advantages be diminished and their present capital erased? Zeihan's negative predictions about those states that will fail in the very near future (most of them) are his most persuasive, those that involve any optimism for the future are those that fly most in the face of Zeihan's own evidence and arguments.
Perhaps most interesting of all is Zeihan's optimism about the future of America. He is rather sanguine about the United States' ability to survive the coming global meltdown and its own troubles. Perhaps because Zeihan holds ideology, culture, social and political organization, etc., in such short shrift, he fails to consider the Romans. The reason the Romans stopped defeating the Germans at will, and instead became their victim, was not the result of unchangeable geography changing, or even German technological advances. It was a rot at the core of Roman society and politics that left them open. Indeed, Zeihan's claim that "On anything remotely resembling level playing field, well-rivered, flat, and integrated Northern Europe would always be more thoroughly educated and more productive and richer than highland, arid, and disconnected Southern Europe," (p 226) is positively absurd in the face of history. Before Charlemagne, the exact opposite held true, it was Northern Europe that was backward and poor, and the Mediterranean world that reigned supreme. So like the Roman Empire, it would be all too easy to imagine a decadent America in decay undermining its own founding principles and political/social/cultural/religious/etc., order that allowed Americans to make such good use of their admittedly good geography, and for America to also collapse in the coming global disorder.
Zeihan has a seductively persuasive style about him and is able to sweep the reader right off his or her feet with the sophisms that he fluently and articulately promotes. However, should the reader switch on his or her critical thinking skills, he or she will inevitably see through many of the fallacies and thin spots in these arguments. That said, although Zeihan certainly does not get it all right, he does make a number of important points that are well-considered. And even where he falls short, provoking the reader to consider alternative arguments makes the read worthwhile. I highly recommend it, though I would read Deirdre N. McCloskey's Bourgeois Dignity: Why Economics Can't Explain the Modern World as an important adjunct as to the importance of non-geographic elements, even the ability to overcome (as in Zeihan's own Iran example) what would seem to be geographic determinism. Someone who enjoyed this work would also benefit from Jared Diamond's Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies.
The above noted fundamental flaw to the entire book and all of Zeihan's ultimate arguments does not mean that he is not worth reading or that he does not make a number of important subordinate points to consider. For instance, he notes that geography is static but technology can move (so again, if plan or ideology is as meaningless as Zeihan makes it out to be, superior European technology could and should have flowed to those Native Americans already enjoying America's geography and left them the masters of the world). Zeihan makes points about the importance of navigable waterways to the success of societies (a point well echoed by Thomas Sowell, among others), the importance of defensibility (presence of oceans, vast deserts mountains, or lack thereof, for instance), factors that can contribute toward free or intrusive governments, factors that can add to tensions among neighbors or permit a less aggressive coexistence, etc. However, even here his argument falls upon itself--he points out Iran's completely terrible geopolitical situation then notes that the Iranian people, recognizing their geographic weaknesses, compensated for them and prevailed. Ergo, political and social organization overcame the "inevitable" geography.
Zeihan's demographic arguments are his most persuasive, though obviously demography is independent of geography per se, especially in a world of modern global transport where food need not be locally produced. He notes correctly that the coming (and already present) underpopulation crisis will collapse the welfare state and many societies altogether owing to their demographic unsustainability. He then goes on to make a number of interesting predictions, some of the reasonable, some of them contrary to his own arguments. If Germany and Japan and Russia are in such critical and almost irreversible demographic crisis, for instance, how can they become hegemons or troublemakers very far into the future? Despite their present advantages, would not their demographic collapse tear at the fabric of their society that their present technological and industrial advantages be diminished and their present capital erased? Zeihan's negative predictions about those states that will fail in the very near future (most of them) are his most persuasive, those that involve any optimism for the future are those that fly most in the face of Zeihan's own evidence and arguments.
Perhaps most interesting of all is Zeihan's optimism about the future of America. He is rather sanguine about the United States' ability to survive the coming global meltdown and its own troubles. Perhaps because Zeihan holds ideology, culture, social and political organization, etc., in such short shrift, he fails to consider the Romans. The reason the Romans stopped defeating the Germans at will, and instead became their victim, was not the result of unchangeable geography changing, or even German technological advances. It was a rot at the core of Roman society and politics that left them open. Indeed, Zeihan's claim that "On anything remotely resembling level playing field, well-rivered, flat, and integrated Northern Europe would always be more thoroughly educated and more productive and richer than highland, arid, and disconnected Southern Europe," (p 226) is positively absurd in the face of history. Before Charlemagne, the exact opposite held true, it was Northern Europe that was backward and poor, and the Mediterranean world that reigned supreme. So like the Roman Empire, it would be all too easy to imagine a decadent America in decay undermining its own founding principles and political/social/cultural/religious/etc., order that allowed Americans to make such good use of their admittedly good geography, and for America to also collapse in the coming global disorder.
Zeihan has a seductively persuasive style about him and is able to sweep the reader right off his or her feet with the sophisms that he fluently and articulately promotes. However, should the reader switch on his or her critical thinking skills, he or she will inevitably see through many of the fallacies and thin spots in these arguments. That said, although Zeihan certainly does not get it all right, he does make a number of important points that are well-considered. And even where he falls short, provoking the reader to consider alternative arguments makes the read worthwhile. I highly recommend it, though I would read Deirdre N. McCloskey's Bourgeois Dignity: Why Economics Can't Explain the Modern World as an important adjunct as to the importance of non-geographic elements, even the ability to overcome (as in Zeihan's own Iran example) what would seem to be geographic determinism. Someone who enjoyed this work would also benefit from Jared Diamond's Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies.
December 25, 2025
Zeihan has always been an oddball, though he's a fun read, as long as you're highly skeptical of most of his claims. mind you he's associated with Straftor, which always left an bad taste in my mouth.
I thought Stratfor founder George Friedman was a lunatic, and well saying he was eccentric is quite the understatement. His 1991 book The Coming War With Japan, was a real treat, where the US sees Japan as Enemy Number One, and goes to war with them, and China is our ally.
Bizarro-World for the win!
"Peter Zeihan came up through Stratfor, George Friedman’s not quite respectable geopolitics consulting firm, before setting out on his own in 2012. His dynamic presentations and charismatic delivery brought him success on the corporate/government consulting and speaking circuit. "
Zeiman is someone I'd dismiss 75% of the time, but he's definately interesting. He seems to be most interesting in how he talks about the vunerabilities of globalization, and seems to push for a Foreign Policy that stresses American interests first as well as energy independence.
He's been bold with his predictions of China's collapse, and well, maybe he overplayed his hand too quickly
I think others said he's overly-determinist about demographics and geography.
And well, that's when you get fatalistic about your trends
he's massively unrealistic with plenty of blind spots
but he's fun to read if you like wild opinions
and like him despite his flaws
The neatest YouTube I saw about his views?
"7 Reasons Canada Will Join the USA | Peter Zeihan Series"
I think Toronto and Ottawa, might disillusion Canada enough, that Washington DC will be puzzled when the rest of the country says 'save us' from the incompetence, we like your incompetence, much much more!
yeah definately an odd guy with odd books, less boring than Kissinger, I'll say that much
December 20, 2025
A really fun, fast-paced book about geopolitics. Zeihan takes the word as literally as possible, arguing that geography is the real reason the United States became the world’s superpower and will remain so for the foreseeable future. He is quite bold in his predictions. Some felt far-fetched, but others, like his prediction that Russia would invade Ukraine, were spot on. I won’t hold my breath for a Canadian civil war though. Haha!
I read the Ten Years On edition, in which Zeihan gives an update to each section based on what has transpired since the original publication in 2014. If you are going to read this, I’d definitely recommend that version. Overall, it is a fascinating book. You don’t have to agree with all his conclusions to enjoy the way he builds his arguments and thinks about the world.
I read the Ten Years On edition, in which Zeihan gives an update to each section based on what has transpired since the original publication in 2014. If you are going to read this, I’d definitely recommend that version. Overall, it is a fascinating book. You don’t have to agree with all his conclusions to enjoy the way he builds his arguments and thinks about the world.
January 19, 2026
This was an entertaining and educational read; I appreciated Zeihan's unique synthesis of demographic and geopolitical analysis, which produced a fresh robust perspective on the current and soon forthcoming situation.
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