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The Upside of Down: Catastrophe, Creativity and the Renewal of Civilization
From the author of the #1 bestselling and Governor General’s Literary Award-winning The Ingenuity Gap – an essential addition to the bookshelf of every thinking person with a stake in our world and our civilization. This is a groundbreaking, essential book for our times.
448 pages, Paperback
First published January 1, 2006
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June 14, 2025
I have learned - mightily - from my breakdowns.
And by the same token, Thomas Homer-Dixon has LEARNED the inner Secret of our own current societal breakdown - in which we ALL most acutely share now!
That Secret is the coming Resurrection of our democratic Way of Life, in what Eliot called a purgatorial process.
Purgatorial?
You see - all Christians know that to live we must Die to our old selves - and be Reborn in the spirit.
But T.S. Eliot says - rightly, for us Catholics - that the process must be Bodily (implying political) as well:
The chill ascends from feet to knees -
The fever sings in mental wires:
If to be warned then we must freeze
And quake in frigid purgatorial fires,
Of which the flame is roses, and the smoke briars.
***
Thomas Homer-Dixon is a man whom my Dad has known since he (Thomas, or affectionately Tad to his dad) was knee high to a grasshopper.
His Dad, Douglas, was in his day the head of the Greater Victoria Water District: the vast reservoir system for the Victoria, B.C. potable water supply. I worked under him in the summer of 1967.
The East Victoria Highlands are a densely forested area when you go East of Esquimalt. One day, in my Aspie confusion, I got totally lost in them.
Fortunately I knew where my truck was. I sat in it and listened to the radio - Sgt Pepper, Jimi Hendrix, Grace Slick.
I waited for someone to give me directions. Some one did.
And he was ever so politely FURIOUS.
It was Homer-Dixon's dad himself.
I quaked in my boots, remembering the complaints that had gone up the chain of command from my irate buddies when I stripped the gears of that same truck, necessitating a new clutch.
But Tad's dad was rather nice (for he was gracious to the families of his former schoolmates).
He said he was fully prepared to let me goof through my final three weeks out west, seeing as I had already got my return plane ticket to Ontario.
I was hugely relieved.
Thanking him effusively like the Aspie I was, he escorted me back to our base - where I nervously henceforth did daily housekeeping for the rest of the boys while they were out on patrol.
The big guy himself had dropped me off in the presence of my peers. I had earned their respect that day. It was now therefore mutual.
That, for me, was a prime example of the Upside of Down in my life, and the key to it.
***
What does his son Thomas say these days to his many detractors and naysayers when he speaks in public?
Probably nothing. He lets his immense erudition and wisdom speak for itself.
Our naysayers we have always been with us.
But I -
Like my Dad did for me, when he gave the book to me around 1995 -
Prefer to let this masterpiece speak for itself.
As Tad's dad waited for me to anxiously explain myself, too, that far-off day, in the same dusty truck for which he had footed the bill!
For, like Tad, I was now a Positive Player in the Game of Life.
Friends, don't let the Sharks Gore you. Take the Upside!
And by the same token, Thomas Homer-Dixon has LEARNED the inner Secret of our own current societal breakdown - in which we ALL most acutely share now!
That Secret is the coming Resurrection of our democratic Way of Life, in what Eliot called a purgatorial process.
Purgatorial?
You see - all Christians know that to live we must Die to our old selves - and be Reborn in the spirit.
But T.S. Eliot says - rightly, for us Catholics - that the process must be Bodily (implying political) as well:
The chill ascends from feet to knees -
The fever sings in mental wires:
If to be warned then we must freeze
And quake in frigid purgatorial fires,
Of which the flame is roses, and the smoke briars.
***
Thomas Homer-Dixon is a man whom my Dad has known since he (Thomas, or affectionately Tad to his dad) was knee high to a grasshopper.
His Dad, Douglas, was in his day the head of the Greater Victoria Water District: the vast reservoir system for the Victoria, B.C. potable water supply. I worked under him in the summer of 1967.
The East Victoria Highlands are a densely forested area when you go East of Esquimalt. One day, in my Aspie confusion, I got totally lost in them.
Fortunately I knew where my truck was. I sat in it and listened to the radio - Sgt Pepper, Jimi Hendrix, Grace Slick.
I waited for someone to give me directions. Some one did.
And he was ever so politely FURIOUS.
It was Homer-Dixon's dad himself.
I quaked in my boots, remembering the complaints that had gone up the chain of command from my irate buddies when I stripped the gears of that same truck, necessitating a new clutch.
But Tad's dad was rather nice (for he was gracious to the families of his former schoolmates).
He said he was fully prepared to let me goof through my final three weeks out west, seeing as I had already got my return plane ticket to Ontario.
I was hugely relieved.
Thanking him effusively like the Aspie I was, he escorted me back to our base - where I nervously henceforth did daily housekeeping for the rest of the boys while they were out on patrol.
The big guy himself had dropped me off in the presence of my peers. I had earned their respect that day. It was now therefore mutual.
That, for me, was a prime example of the Upside of Down in my life, and the key to it.
***
What does his son Thomas say these days to his many detractors and naysayers when he speaks in public?
Probably nothing. He lets his immense erudition and wisdom speak for itself.
Our naysayers we have always been with us.
But I -
Like my Dad did for me, when he gave the book to me around 1995 -
Prefer to let this masterpiece speak for itself.
As Tad's dad waited for me to anxiously explain myself, too, that far-off day, in the same dusty truck for which he had footed the bill!
For, like Tad, I was now a Positive Player in the Game of Life.
Friends, don't let the Sharks Gore you. Take the Upside!
December 13, 2025
On how forest fires are the right way to see this crisis.
Certain forests only reproduce if there is a fire...but only as long as the fire isn't too big.
The main point is that many problematic situations are coinciding right now which Homer-Dixon calls tectonic stresses. He thinks they will function like multipliers (or like an earthquake effect) and we are likely looking at synchronous failure. According to him it is beyond management but we need to realize that crashes can cause higher levels of creativity.
To sum up, here are the tectonic stresses:
1. The fast-rising (and increasingly violent) population of the 3rd world and their increasing awareness of the quality of life gap.
2. The increasing income gap between poor and rich, which is undeniable: in 1870, the average income of a rich country was 9 times greater than a rich country's. Now they are 45 times greater!
3. The globalized world connecting everything and everyone.
4. Climate change, environmental degradation .
5. Peak oil (He focuses a lot on what is called Energy Return on Investment. Eg. we are investing more into energy extraction and getting less energy on what we are putting in.)
Combine all of these and we can't manage. These are pointing towards synchronous failure, societal collapse, making crisis and chain reactions more cataclysmic and bigger and unmanageable. If one, or two happen at the same time, it can be manageable, but in no way are we prepared to manage all of them.
His conclusions are based on panarchy theory, something developed by a Canadian named Buzz Holling, who is perhaps the expert in complex adaptive systems, from ecosystems to economic markets. He says that all complex systems have an adaptive cycle of growth:
1.growth
2. collapse
3. regeneration
4. and again growth.
Thomas uses a forest fire analogy. (Something we can all learn by going on a trip to Sequoia, Kings Canyon or Redwood!) He says societies function in similar ways. If a society tries to stay on the cycle of growth, without collapse (or metaphorically a forest fire), the inevitable collapse (a super hot forest fire) will be so big and catastrophic that there will be no regeneneration or return to growth (the heat would burn right through the fire resistent bark of the tree and the super hot temperatures will not allow the cones to spread their seed).
A healthy complex adaptive system has what he calls resilience or catagenesis: creative capacity for renewal of societies, technologies, and institutions in the aftermath of the breakdown.
He also takes about different stages of denial:
1. existential (eg. climate change doesn't exist)
2. consequential denial (eg. climate change exists, but it doesn't really matter).
3. fatalist denial (eg. even if climate change exists, there is nothing we can do, so I don't want to think about it).
This made me think about how we need to focus more on the psychological side, and try to understand more why people lack this 'consciousness'.
Perhaps Homer-Dixon could be inclined to do research into this area, and apply the psychological insights of teaching and education to the idea of increasing citizen consciousness.
This is a very significant and intelligent multi-disciplinary analysis of the current world trajectory. Highly recommended.
Certain forests only reproduce if there is a fire...but only as long as the fire isn't too big.
The main point is that many problematic situations are coinciding right now which Homer-Dixon calls tectonic stresses. He thinks they will function like multipliers (or like an earthquake effect) and we are likely looking at synchronous failure. According to him it is beyond management but we need to realize that crashes can cause higher levels of creativity.
To sum up, here are the tectonic stresses:
1. The fast-rising (and increasingly violent) population of the 3rd world and their increasing awareness of the quality of life gap.
2. The increasing income gap between poor and rich, which is undeniable: in 1870, the average income of a rich country was 9 times greater than a rich country's. Now they are 45 times greater!
3. The globalized world connecting everything and everyone.
4. Climate change, environmental degradation .
5. Peak oil (He focuses a lot on what is called Energy Return on Investment. Eg. we are investing more into energy extraction and getting less energy on what we are putting in.)
Combine all of these and we can't manage. These are pointing towards synchronous failure, societal collapse, making crisis and chain reactions more cataclysmic and bigger and unmanageable. If one, or two happen at the same time, it can be manageable, but in no way are we prepared to manage all of them.
His conclusions are based on panarchy theory, something developed by a Canadian named Buzz Holling, who is perhaps the expert in complex adaptive systems, from ecosystems to economic markets. He says that all complex systems have an adaptive cycle of growth:
1.growth
2. collapse
3. regeneration
4. and again growth.
Thomas uses a forest fire analogy. (Something we can all learn by going on a trip to Sequoia, Kings Canyon or Redwood!) He says societies function in similar ways. If a society tries to stay on the cycle of growth, without collapse (or metaphorically a forest fire), the inevitable collapse (a super hot forest fire) will be so big and catastrophic that there will be no regeneneration or return to growth (the heat would burn right through the fire resistent bark of the tree and the super hot temperatures will not allow the cones to spread their seed).
A healthy complex adaptive system has what he calls resilience or catagenesis: creative capacity for renewal of societies, technologies, and institutions in the aftermath of the breakdown.
He also takes about different stages of denial:
1. existential (eg. climate change doesn't exist)
2. consequential denial (eg. climate change exists, but it doesn't really matter).
3. fatalist denial (eg. even if climate change exists, there is nothing we can do, so I don't want to think about it).
This made me think about how we need to focus more on the psychological side, and try to understand more why people lack this 'consciousness'.
Perhaps Homer-Dixon could be inclined to do research into this area, and apply the psychological insights of teaching and education to the idea of increasing citizen consciousness.
This is a very significant and intelligent multi-disciplinary analysis of the current world trajectory. Highly recommended.
July 3, 2007
Unfortunately, my excitement for this book overwhelmed it's execution. The title is promising--Upside of Down--but through and through it's mostly "Down, Down, Down" and a tiny bit of the upside. Basically, we're doomed. Homer-Dixon's proof is solid and convincing of the trouble we're in (though, I imagine, if you, like myself, were intrigued enough to pick up this book, you already think about this pervasive trouble anyway), but the solutions he puts forth (the Upside) are little more than lukewarm and hardly original--non-violent protests, thorough democratic pressure on world leaders, and disgustingly, a call for a world democracy (when he blames poor governments for a lot of our problems and calls the Internet a failed experiment in electronic narcissism...
Nonetheless, it was an engaging read that encourages us to think about the paradigm of growth and the impending future (and inevitable disasters).
Nonetheless, it was an engaging read that encourages us to think about the paradigm of growth and the impending future (and inevitable disasters).
May 11, 2009
This is a grand book. The explanation for why there's a "down" fills more pages than the details of the "upside," but at this point, I think that's still a necessary evil.
I have interviewed the author twice for the C-Realm Podcast, once before reading the book and once after. You can find those interviews here:
http://c-realmpodcast.podomatic.com/e...
and here:
http://c-realmpodcast.podomatic.com/e...
I have interviewed the author twice for the C-Realm Podcast, once before reading the book and once after. You can find those interviews here:
http://c-realmpodcast.podomatic.com/e...
and here:
http://c-realmpodcast.podomatic.com/e...
December 13, 2021
This is an interesting take on the usual theme of gloom and doom, but ultimately it is a gloom and doom book.
Here, the author does a couple things. The first is to explore the things that can cause collapse, and the worse deep collapse, of society. He looks back to the Roman Empire and its collapse and finds out that we aren’t really on too different a course. Among the causes he is most interested in is the need for large amounts of energy to burn to maintain our lifestyle. He notes that Rome also required huge inputs of energy. And that as long as they could get the energy they needed with a high enough return on energy investment, then they thrived. But when their energy source became less efficient, largely because it had become less readily available, then began the long slide into collapse. That’s not the only cause; he also mentions the growing gap wage, climate change, and the increasing complexity, speed, and interconnectedness of the different systems we rely on- with them having lost resilience due to the speed, interconnectedness and complexity. But he’s especially interested in the energy cost/procurement as a cause of collapse. I’m that vein, he spends a good deal of time on peak oil, and exploring where people are getting their oil. He also looks at all the different renewables as well as nuclear, and concludes that at least for now there isn’t a renewable or other alternative to oil that delivers the same bang for your buck. And since oil is peaking and basically is already only becoming harder to access and less efficient, then we, as a highly energy consuming society, are on the same crash course with energy that the Roman Empire wrecked on.
That inevitable crash brought around the questions of reducing consumption, and how that is intolerable to the limitless growth crowd ( who sadly are quite wealthy and powerful, it turns out; as well as being unabashed to use their wealth and power to prevent any meaningful challenge to the foundation of limitless growth the currently underpins our economy, or really even any meaningful slow down in consumption.) He explores the question of limitless growth, and finds that not only is it not necessary or desirable, it’s not sustainable or even possible. These are just highlights of a long book filled with well-researched, thought out, well presented outlines of some of the problems we face.
The end of the book was the weakest part, in my opinion. It was here that Homer-Dixon kind of devolved into platitudinous pronouncements about what we need to do, what types of creative thinking we can employ, to find our way out of this tangled mess of broken-down systems. And there I strongly disagree with him There is no amount of positive thinking or creative visualization on any individual's part that is going to clean up this mess or end this nightmare. We need full scale governmental action, and we need essentially a revolution of society. So I left the book feeling a teensy bit disillusioned, but it's important to remember that the first 4/5 of the book were really excellent. The authors ways of thinking about the problems we face and the coming breakdown in terms of energy efficiency was a new angle to me, but a good one.
Overall, I would definitely recommend this book, with the caveat that the ending falls a bit short.
Here, the author does a couple things. The first is to explore the things that can cause collapse, and the worse deep collapse, of society. He looks back to the Roman Empire and its collapse and finds out that we aren’t really on too different a course. Among the causes he is most interested in is the need for large amounts of energy to burn to maintain our lifestyle. He notes that Rome also required huge inputs of energy. And that as long as they could get the energy they needed with a high enough return on energy investment, then they thrived. But when their energy source became less efficient, largely because it had become less readily available, then began the long slide into collapse. That’s not the only cause; he also mentions the growing gap wage, climate change, and the increasing complexity, speed, and interconnectedness of the different systems we rely on- with them having lost resilience due to the speed, interconnectedness and complexity. But he’s especially interested in the energy cost/procurement as a cause of collapse. I’m that vein, he spends a good deal of time on peak oil, and exploring where people are getting their oil. He also looks at all the different renewables as well as nuclear, and concludes that at least for now there isn’t a renewable or other alternative to oil that delivers the same bang for your buck. And since oil is peaking and basically is already only becoming harder to access and less efficient, then we, as a highly energy consuming society, are on the same crash course with energy that the Roman Empire wrecked on.
That inevitable crash brought around the questions of reducing consumption, and how that is intolerable to the limitless growth crowd ( who sadly are quite wealthy and powerful, it turns out; as well as being unabashed to use their wealth and power to prevent any meaningful challenge to the foundation of limitless growth the currently underpins our economy, or really even any meaningful slow down in consumption.) He explores the question of limitless growth, and finds that not only is it not necessary or desirable, it’s not sustainable or even possible. These are just highlights of a long book filled with well-researched, thought out, well presented outlines of some of the problems we face.
The end of the book was the weakest part, in my opinion. It was here that Homer-Dixon kind of devolved into platitudinous pronouncements about what we need to do, what types of creative thinking we can employ, to find our way out of this tangled mess of broken-down systems. And there I strongly disagree with him There is no amount of positive thinking or creative visualization on any individual's part that is going to clean up this mess or end this nightmare. We need full scale governmental action, and we need essentially a revolution of society. So I left the book feeling a teensy bit disillusioned, but it's important to remember that the first 4/5 of the book were really excellent. The authors ways of thinking about the problems we face and the coming breakdown in terms of energy efficiency was a new angle to me, but a good one.
Overall, I would definitely recommend this book, with the caveat that the ending falls a bit short.
May 29, 2022
Homer-Dixon's book is an amazing compilation of why we are all doomed, in a neat little package. His writing style balances the need for detail, simplicity, nuance and firmness all in one, which made it flow very well. I appreciated his lucid explanations of all the "tectonic stresses" underlying the complex global systems that we rely on. About fifteen years since the book was published, we can see every one of his explanations come to life, as the events of the early 2020s have rocked the world. His main point is that the world is a complex system, so individual issues like climate change and migration are all interrelated. We can already see the beginnings of the war in Ukraine disrupting key food links worldwide, showing just how fragile our civilisation is under the surface.
I only offer some very minor criticisms about the book. There's a clear mid-2000s bias to his predictions about world affairs as they dismiss China, focus too much on the Middle East and overstate the idea of nuclear terrorism. He claims that mitigating future issues can actually make them more severe in the long term, but I didn't really understand his explanation of how, and his metaphor of forest fires left me more confused than before. Lastly, while he is mostly nuanced and level-headed when approaching the issues, he seems overly dismissive of popular culture (as a media studies graduate, I reject the idea that it's an inferior substitute for "real" culture) and sustainable technologies (they have progressed far faster than he predicted even if they can't replace all of our energy needs at present).
I only offer some very minor criticisms about the book. There's a clear mid-2000s bias to his predictions about world affairs as they dismiss China, focus too much on the Middle East and overstate the idea of nuclear terrorism. He claims that mitigating future issues can actually make them more severe in the long term, but I didn't really understand his explanation of how, and his metaphor of forest fires left me more confused than before. Lastly, while he is mostly nuanced and level-headed when approaching the issues, he seems overly dismissive of popular culture (as a media studies graduate, I reject the idea that it's an inferior substitute for "real" culture) and sustainable technologies (they have progressed far faster than he predicted even if they can't replace all of our energy needs at present).
August 23, 2008
This was a really stimulating read, and very absorbing. It gets four stars only because I felt that the concluding note of optimism wasn't entirely justified by the profound problems he identifies. Overall though, it's a must read for anyone interested in the future of civilisation...
December 15, 2015
Catastrophist debate from the catastrophist, Left-Wing, side of the argument.
Clearly argued but deeply partisan.
Readers on the Left will enjoy the book but others probably will not.
3 out of 5 stars.
Clearly argued but deeply partisan.
Readers on the Left will enjoy the book but others probably will not.
3 out of 5 stars.
October 20, 2007
48/308 I just can't do these social science non-fictions that try to incorporate quantitative tools that just seem so far stretched and inappropriate. I keep on thinking, error bars must be huge, but of course they don't even consider them. After awhile, I just can't stand reading them anymore. But then again, I read only 15%, so it might get better...
July 18, 2023
The author makes some very important and valid points but very quickly starts to repeat himself and easily lost me about halfway through the book.
January 9, 2024
Here's a good book, more about the down than the upside but with very interesting analysis of the old Roman empire and its own decline and downfall, from the perspective of energy flows to guide and structure it. The prognosis for our own era isn’t particularly good, according to the author, and while the lack of a feel-good conclusion can feel like alarm, the arguments are sound. The analysis of the Roman decline is a good one, and the book seems not very quaint considering its date of publication so long ago.
I was pleasantly surprised by the rigour of thought as well as the lack of neat, anodyne conclusion. Looking back at what’s happened since publication, this book didn’t get its due—now we’re 16 years further with growing tectonic pressure and still digging in our heels, plus new problems to spice things up. But then, there’s a lot of talk of denial in this book so that aspect is covered. This isn't a self-help book for the modern world and the titular upside can be lacking.
For me, the most interesting locus of the critique is that societies often lack the imagination and drive to abandon a duff systems and create resilient societies. We just cannot imagine alternatives, and those who offer their ideas are often derided or shouted down by ideologues. Hence why this book is all downside. Much ink has been spilled about why we take the route of least resistance, all the ideologies we fight about, etc… so I’ll leave off.
The general idea I get from this book is that as time goes on and complexity increases, the odds and severity of crises and shocks do as well to some extent, and the solution is not found in more complex and fragile solutions but rather creating redundancies or reworking dysfunctional socioeconomic factors. The Romans doubled down on what made their empire impressive but inflexible and expensive (large construction projects) and now those ruins (and a few tiny bits of cultural inheritance [salve to all Rome lovers, yes I am joking]) are all that’s left of them.
I would recommend this to anyone who wishes to keep matters in perspective without resorting to cloud cuckoo land denialism or baleful yet ironic aww-shucks catastrophizing—the two great scourges of our already somewhat benighted era. It got me thinking about what a Carrington level solar flare would do to us and then made me uneasy, over and beyond the unease I feel all the time anyway.
I was pleasantly surprised by the rigour of thought as well as the lack of neat, anodyne conclusion. Looking back at what’s happened since publication, this book didn’t get its due—now we’re 16 years further with growing tectonic pressure and still digging in our heels, plus new problems to spice things up. But then, there’s a lot of talk of denial in this book so that aspect is covered. This isn't a self-help book for the modern world and the titular upside can be lacking.
For me, the most interesting locus of the critique is that societies often lack the imagination and drive to abandon a duff systems and create resilient societies. We just cannot imagine alternatives, and those who offer their ideas are often derided or shouted down by ideologues. Hence why this book is all downside. Much ink has been spilled about why we take the route of least resistance, all the ideologies we fight about, etc… so I’ll leave off.
The general idea I get from this book is that as time goes on and complexity increases, the odds and severity of crises and shocks do as well to some extent, and the solution is not found in more complex and fragile solutions but rather creating redundancies or reworking dysfunctional socioeconomic factors. The Romans doubled down on what made their empire impressive but inflexible and expensive (large construction projects) and now those ruins (and a few tiny bits of cultural inheritance [salve to all Rome lovers, yes I am joking]) are all that’s left of them.
I would recommend this to anyone who wishes to keep matters in perspective without resorting to cloud cuckoo land denialism or baleful yet ironic aww-shucks catastrophizing—the two great scourges of our already somewhat benighted era. It got me thinking about what a Carrington level solar flare would do to us and then made me uneasy, over and beyond the unease I feel all the time anyway.
August 22, 2020
Interesting thesis - uses energy usage, and a society's ability to capture and utilize, at a reasonable cost, to measure its health and survivability. Uses Rome, and its decline, as a prime example. Good survey of Roman construction, and the energy costs of same (most energy being food people and draft animals), and the gradual deterioration of Roman agriculture (from soil loss, population loss, bad tax policies, lack of maintenance of water systems) as the prime cause of collapse. Consults some of the best minds around (Joseph Tainter of "Collapse of Complex Societies", Edward Luttwak of "Grand Strategy of the Roman Empire", several others). Arguments from ecology, economics, much else. Good unified theory, with a suggestion of a "way out".
But major blind spots. Suggests that modern society features more uneven wealth distribution than ever in our history, after devoting much space to Rome - what could be more uneven than a slave, or a peasant farmer (who often sold themselves into slavery, in search of a better life) compared to the Senatorial class? He dwells on declining oil production, and soon to come societal collapse thereby, and the lack of viable energy alternatives, with barely a mention of nuclear - and then dismissed as impractical because of the spent fuel storage problem, with no thought, pro or con, of recycling. Argues that we need much diversity in approach, but then says it's "up to the government".
But major blind spots. Suggests that modern society features more uneven wealth distribution than ever in our history, after devoting much space to Rome - what could be more uneven than a slave, or a peasant farmer (who often sold themselves into slavery, in search of a better life) compared to the Senatorial class? He dwells on declining oil production, and soon to come societal collapse thereby, and the lack of viable energy alternatives, with barely a mention of nuclear - and then dismissed as impractical because of the spent fuel storage problem, with no thought, pro or con, of recycling. Argues that we need much diversity in approach, but then says it's "up to the government".
April 2, 2020
Like other reviewers have said, this book is mis-titled, there’s no upside in the book, it’s all down. And the 'down' mostly has to do with climate change according to the author. We’re pretty well doomed according to Homer-Dixon. I decided to read the book as I was looking for a glimmer of hope—an upside and opportunity in the midst of the current COVID-19 crisis. Though I didn’t find what I was hoping for, it was interesting to read how the author did predict a looming global crisis given the un-bridled growth and scale of globalization. Homer-Dixon wrote the book in 2006, so fourteen years later here we are. Even though the book was disheartening, I did find solace in examining outcomes of past crises the author describes, e.g. 9-11 in the United States, the banking crises of Asia in 1999, among others. Our recoveries demonstrate resiliency and inventiveness. Furthermore, some of the points he makes at the time of writing, like our dependency on OPEC national oil is moot, the United States for instance in 2019 relies mainly on oil from Canada (49%); OPEC countries represent 18%. Another point he emphasizes as a serious problem is our consumer economy—the pursuit of goods which is, according to Homer-Dixon unsustainable—yet this is now shifting with the millennial generation and Gen Z, who seek experiences not goods.
I suggest reading something else if you are looking for a more uplifting read on crisis and renewal. I’d recommend Jared Diamond’s Upheaval: Turning Points for Nations in Crisis.
I suggest reading something else if you are looking for a more uplifting read on crisis and renewal. I’d recommend Jared Diamond’s Upheaval: Turning Points for Nations in Crisis.
May 20, 2020
Probably not the best titled book out there, though it was well written and relatively easy to read. However, it was much more about the Down than it was about the Upside, which is contrary to what I was expecting. The book paints a pretty dark picture of the society that we currently live in and how it's living on an extended complexity of energy picture. He contrasts this with a similar setup for the Roman Empire and we all know how that ended up. I do understand the need for resilience and redundancy very well so it's nice to see the author point those things out, but again, there aren't too many solutions or historical examples there for my liking.
I feel like this book was likely written for a Canadian audience, particularly at a time when the Canadian economy was so much geared towards (And overheating because of) energy.
I feel like this book was likely written for a Canadian audience, particularly at a time when the Canadian economy was so much geared towards (And overheating because of) energy.
March 16, 2020
Others have noted this, but, unfortunately the title is misleading. It seems that the author is more focused on the downward spiral, rather than renewal and the 'upside' factors of breaking points and change. I was very much looking forward to this book, but read through half and then skimmed it and finally got to what I was searching for (eg 'the upside') towards the end. I feel the author was right in showing three stages of denial- but the fourth, which I feel they were in when writing is the denial that there is any worth in taking the strongest aspects of society and culture to head in a forward momentum with. Perhaps, I sought answers heading forward rather than more reasons how and why things are not great.
October 10, 2020
Given the title I was disappointed to see Homer-Dixon dedicate 95% of the book to outlining and speculating on the upcoming collapse of society. He opens the book with an interesting discussion of the potential for renewal that crises afford those who are prepared. Unfortunately, he spends the vast majority of the rest of the book highlighting the environmental, political and economic crisis unfolding across the globe. I would have found these discussions more worthwhile if he had explored opportunities afforded by these crises instead of just making a laundry list of problems. Thankfully, Homer-Dixon also includes in the book a fascinating analysis of the collapse of the Roman Empire that made the book that much more readable.
April 20, 2023
This is a kind of mishmash of very many views - mostly familiar - on the causes of societal collapse. The final chapter is a prescription of mitigation measures. There is strongly influenced by THDs political views, and also a bit dumbed down compared with most of the genre, making for an easy read. It also aimed to be up-to-the minute when it was written about 2005. As a consequence, it is already somewhat beyond its shelf life.
Something which I would have liked to see developed is the fact that THDs mitigation measures amount to conscientious risk aversion, i.e., the distinguishing features of societies which have developed under precarious environmental or political conditions.
Something which I would have liked to see developed is the fact that THDs mitigation measures amount to conscientious risk aversion, i.e., the distinguishing features of societies which have developed under precarious environmental or political conditions.
April 17, 2019
One comment about this book said that the name was misleading, I totally agree. The name of this book should be the Downside of Down and How to Get There Fast. There is nothing about any of the "down" stories to show us a way "up". That was the reason way I bought this book. I already know what was told in the book. I was just curious about the solution which might be there, but there were none other than being more resilient, which we already know. The important part of the way getting more resilient was not there.
September 14, 2017
This book offered a metaphor about the nature of the universe that I think about on an almost weekly basis.
For that I will always be in its debt.
For that I will always be in its debt.
September 28, 2017
Highly illuminating read on the present and future of humankind
January 13, 2019
Detailed, lucid, saddening, frustrating, and yet somehow inspiring.
February 28, 2020
Although written over a decade ago, Homer-Dixon's book is still relevant and, in fact, even more urgent.
November 4, 2020
3.5 stars unfortunately too dated with it being written over a decade ago. Listened as audio, so not a lot of time committed while on my morning dog walks. Roman empire history was interesting.
August 17, 2010
Cool look at the decline of the roman empire and the similarities it has with the decline of the American Empire.
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From Publishers Weekly
With easy-to-understand terminology and a mountain of research, Toronto author Homer-Dixon (The Ingenuity Gap) faces down imminent, unavoidable and catastrophic threats to modern civilization, keeping a wary eye on mankind's chances to adapt. Methodically illustrating how the modern world is doomed to suffer a large-scale breakdown, Homer-Dixon enumerates the "tectonic stresses" on civilization-population growth disparities, energy scarcity, environmental damage, and economic instabilities-and the "multipliers"-increasing global connectivity and small groups' ability to enact destruction-that help propel them. Woven throughout are well-illustrated comparisons between the current state of industrialized nations-especially the U.S.-with the unsustainable complexities, and subsequent downfall, of the Roman Empire. With each page, humanity's situation seems more dire, but Homer-Dixon argues that the force of "catagenesis"-the "commonplace occurrence of renewal through breakdown"-means that good will come from the collapse of civilization as we know it. Unfortunately, he offers few practical suggestions as to how we can prepare for civilization's inevitable failure, and little evidence on which to hang hope. As a result, the book takes on a tone of doomsday prophecy directly at odds with its title. Where Homer-Dixon succeeds admirably is in explaining exactly why modern stresses are so worrisome and the outcomes that neglect could cause.
Book Description
Environmental disasters. Terrorist wars. Energy scarcity. Economic failure. Is this the world's inevitable fate, a downward spiral that ultimately spells the collapse of societies? Perhaps, says acclaimed author Thomas Homer-Dixon - or perhaps these crises can actually lead to renewal for ourselves and planet earth.
The Upside of Down takes the reader on a mind-stretching tour of societies' management, or mismanagement, of disasters over time. From the demise of ancient Rome to contemporary climate change, this spellbinding book analyzes what happens when multiple crises compound to cause what the author calls "synchronous failure." But, crisis doesn't have to mean total global calamity. Through catagenesis, or creative, bold reform in the wake of breakdown, it is possible to reinvent our future.
Drawing on the worlds of archeology, poetry, politics, science, and economics, The Upside of Down is certain to provoke controversy and stir imaginations across the globe. The author's wide-ranging expertise makes his insights and proposals particularly acute, as people of all nations try to grapple with how we can survive tomorrow's inevitable shocks to our global system. There is no guarantee of success, but there are ways to begin thinking about a better world, and The Upside of Down is the ideal place to start thinking.
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From Publishers Weekly
With easy-to-understand terminology and a mountain of research, Toronto author Homer-Dixon (The Ingenuity Gap) faces down imminent, unavoidable and catastrophic threats to modern civilization, keeping a wary eye on mankind's chances to adapt. Methodically illustrating how the modern world is doomed to suffer a large-scale breakdown, Homer-Dixon enumerates the "tectonic stresses" on civilization-population growth disparities, energy scarcity, environmental damage, and economic instabilities-and the "multipliers"-increasing global connectivity and small groups' ability to enact destruction-that help propel them. Woven throughout are well-illustrated comparisons between the current state of industrialized nations-especially the U.S.-with the unsustainable complexities, and subsequent downfall, of the Roman Empire. With each page, humanity's situation seems more dire, but Homer-Dixon argues that the force of "catagenesis"-the "commonplace occurrence of renewal through breakdown"-means that good will come from the collapse of civilization as we know it. Unfortunately, he offers few practical suggestions as to how we can prepare for civilization's inevitable failure, and little evidence on which to hang hope. As a result, the book takes on a tone of doomsday prophecy directly at odds with its title. Where Homer-Dixon succeeds admirably is in explaining exactly why modern stresses are so worrisome and the outcomes that neglect could cause.
Book Description
Environmental disasters. Terrorist wars. Energy scarcity. Economic failure. Is this the world's inevitable fate, a downward spiral that ultimately spells the collapse of societies? Perhaps, says acclaimed author Thomas Homer-Dixon - or perhaps these crises can actually lead to renewal for ourselves and planet earth.
The Upside of Down takes the reader on a mind-stretching tour of societies' management, or mismanagement, of disasters over time. From the demise of ancient Rome to contemporary climate change, this spellbinding book analyzes what happens when multiple crises compound to cause what the author calls "synchronous failure." But, crisis doesn't have to mean total global calamity. Through catagenesis, or creative, bold reform in the wake of breakdown, it is possible to reinvent our future.
Drawing on the worlds of archeology, poetry, politics, science, and economics, The Upside of Down is certain to provoke controversy and stir imaginations across the globe. The author's wide-ranging expertise makes his insights and proposals particularly acute, as people of all nations try to grapple with how we can survive tomorrow's inevitable shocks to our global system. There is no guarantee of success, but there are ways to begin thinking about a better world, and The Upside of Down is the ideal place to start thinking.
September 27, 2016
I feel like this was an important work, and the data is well represented in incredible detail. The problem I had with it - and the reason it took so long to read - is that the author focused so much on the information that he forgot about readability. That's a real shame, because this book goes into detail about the stressors put on our world, civilization in general, and particularly (American) societies that could cause future crises, and the crises we've faced recently and distantly. It discusses how we contribute to our own disasters, and how we deal with the aftermath and grow from them. As another GoodReads commenter put it, disaster to civilization is like a forest fire - it destroys, but if it is controlled, it also nourishes and helps the forest to grow bigger, healthier, and stronger.
Homer-Dixon identifies five areas which he calls the "tectonic stresses" on our global civiliation:
1. energy stress, especially from increasing scarcity of conventional oil;
2. economic stress from greater global economic instability and widening income gaps between rich and poor;
3. demographic stress from differentials in population growth rates between rich and poor societies and from expansion of megacities in poor societies;
4. environmental stress from worsening damage to land, water forests, and fisheries; and,
5. climate stress from changes in the composition of Earth's atmosphere.
I think this is an important work, and the research and factual data included is amazing. If you don't want to slog through the whole thing, I highly recommend reading the introduction, taking a look a the five stresses above, and skimming the sections throughout the book that deal with each one. Check out the book's website as well - http://www.theupsideofdown.com/index.... - and get some education.
If you are an educator, public policymaker, adviser, planner or other professional who deals with higher-level societal issues, I highly recommend making this a part of your permanent library. Read it with a pen and a highlighter, take notes, and look into the works cited in the extensive end notes. The work's been done; take advantage.
Homer-Dixon identifies five areas which he calls the "tectonic stresses" on our global civiliation:
1. energy stress, especially from increasing scarcity of conventional oil;
2. economic stress from greater global economic instability and widening income gaps between rich and poor;
3. demographic stress from differentials in population growth rates between rich and poor societies and from expansion of megacities in poor societies;
4. environmental stress from worsening damage to land, water forests, and fisheries; and,
5. climate stress from changes in the composition of Earth's atmosphere.
I think this is an important work, and the research and factual data included is amazing. If you don't want to slog through the whole thing, I highly recommend reading the introduction, taking a look a the five stresses above, and skimming the sections throughout the book that deal with each one. Check out the book's website as well - http://www.theupsideofdown.com/index.... - and get some education.
If you are an educator, public policymaker, adviser, planner or other professional who deals with higher-level societal issues, I highly recommend making this a part of your permanent library. Read it with a pen and a highlighter, take notes, and look into the works cited in the extensive end notes. The work's been done; take advantage.
September 11, 2014
The author offers a useful framework to help us understand the various stresses that inflict our modern global society, likening them to the buildup of tectonic forces that eventually result in an earthquake. While I agree with other readers that there seems to be little upside to his prognosis of our predicament, I think any effort that further explains these complex issues is helpful in that it makes the argument more convincing and preparation for the inevitable breakdown that he envisages more urgent.
He uses ancient Rome as a case study and a parallel to the issues of today, by analyzing how the Romans eventually over reached in terms of the ability to harness energy at a rate efficient enough to sustain its ever increasing complexity. We are given tours of a few examples of Roman feats of engineering, to marvel at the incredible audacity that enabled such structures to be constructed, and more importantly perhaps to wonder at the events that led to their eventual abandonment and decay.
While many diverse issues are discussed, and a sort of systematic synthesis is attempted that links our sociopolitical problems with the idea of ecological succession in nature, I felt that he begins to ramble on in generalities towards the end, when a cursory overview of a few potential flashpoints are highlighted (middle east, Pakistan, China) but proves to be too shallow and superficial to add any value. Still, the author nails a few important concepts, the idea that economic growth as sacrosanct is harmful and should be challenged, and that resilience, the opposite of efficiency, is the way forward in lessening the impact of breakdown and preventing it from becoming catastrophe.
Interestingly, this book was written before the global financial crisis precipitated by the subprime fiasco in the USA, so in this sense it was very prescient and correct in predicting more of such fore shocks to come, whether economic, or natural like higher incidence of volatile weather, which also continue to increase in frequency to date.
He uses ancient Rome as a case study and a parallel to the issues of today, by analyzing how the Romans eventually over reached in terms of the ability to harness energy at a rate efficient enough to sustain its ever increasing complexity. We are given tours of a few examples of Roman feats of engineering, to marvel at the incredible audacity that enabled such structures to be constructed, and more importantly perhaps to wonder at the events that led to their eventual abandonment and decay.
While many diverse issues are discussed, and a sort of systematic synthesis is attempted that links our sociopolitical problems with the idea of ecological succession in nature, I felt that he begins to ramble on in generalities towards the end, when a cursory overview of a few potential flashpoints are highlighted (middle east, Pakistan, China) but proves to be too shallow and superficial to add any value. Still, the author nails a few important concepts, the idea that economic growth as sacrosanct is harmful and should be challenged, and that resilience, the opposite of efficiency, is the way forward in lessening the impact of breakdown and preventing it from becoming catastrophe.
Interestingly, this book was written before the global financial crisis precipitated by the subprime fiasco in the USA, so in this sense it was very prescient and correct in predicting more of such fore shocks to come, whether economic, or natural like higher incidence of volatile weather, which also continue to increase in frequency to date.
October 21, 2009
The good:
Well-written and compelling
100 pages of endnotes (I love footnotes, and endnotes are almost as good)
Makes a consistent argument about energy returns on investment being fundamental to society’s functioning, historically and currently
The bad:
I was interested in the UPSIDE of down. I just skimmed most of the book, with its discussion of peak oil and environmental stress and climate change, because I don’t need convincing on those points. I wanted to know what to DO about them. All I got was 30 pages at the end. It was an interesting 30 pages, discussing ways to build resilience into our communities and nations, how this strategy has helped businesses/ societies deal with changes of all kinds, and the forces which make its adoption difficult. But I was looking for more.
The incidental:
Every time I think about the Roman Empire (so often invoked by social-collapse authors) I’m torn between hope and pessimism. The Romans accomplished amazing feats of engineering and governance without fossil fuels, so on the one hand I figure that everything won’t necessarily fall apart as oil becomes prohibitively expensive because such systems have worked before. (With slaves and looted gold, but anyway.) But on the other hand, despite having the capacity to build the Colosseum and manage enormous territories, the empire collapses relatively soon after its peak. (The reason that Jared Diamond’s Collapse was the book which first got me to take seriously the possibility that we really could be in serious trouble here is because he cited example after example of societies completely dissolving when seemingly at their peaks.) So is Rome an example or a warning?
Well-written and compelling
100 pages of endnotes (I love footnotes, and endnotes are almost as good)
Makes a consistent argument about energy returns on investment being fundamental to society’s functioning, historically and currently
The bad:
I was interested in the UPSIDE of down. I just skimmed most of the book, with its discussion of peak oil and environmental stress and climate change, because I don’t need convincing on those points. I wanted to know what to DO about them. All I got was 30 pages at the end. It was an interesting 30 pages, discussing ways to build resilience into our communities and nations, how this strategy has helped businesses/ societies deal with changes of all kinds, and the forces which make its adoption difficult. But I was looking for more.
The incidental:
Every time I think about the Roman Empire (so often invoked by social-collapse authors) I’m torn between hope and pessimism. The Romans accomplished amazing feats of engineering and governance without fossil fuels, so on the one hand I figure that everything won’t necessarily fall apart as oil becomes prohibitively expensive because such systems have worked before. (With slaves and looted gold, but anyway.) But on the other hand, despite having the capacity to build the Colosseum and manage enormous territories, the empire collapses relatively soon after its peak. (The reason that Jared Diamond’s Collapse was the book which first got me to take seriously the possibility that we really could be in serious trouble here is because he cited example after example of societies completely dissolving when seemingly at their peaks.) So is Rome an example or a warning?
April 24, 2013
I have extremely mixed feelings about this book. Homer-Dixon is writing about the secular end of the world. It is his belief that civilization's own success is the source for a series of unfortunately congruent pressures that threaten to release in a pillar of fire and destruction within the next generations. That it is called the “Upside of Down” seems like marketing, while there are hints of hope that what he perceives to be the root causes can be addressed, it never really comes off as totally sincere. Your world is ending, the text essentially tells us, now let me tell you why.
That in itself is not a knock against the book. The problem is that it felt uneven—as if was addressing multiple topics that would have been better served in separate manuscripts—and it really made some sections a chore. Brilliant writing and interesting ideas punctuate the text (his theory that the Fall of Rome was an energy crisis is particularly fascinating), but something holds back the entirety of the book. The first sections are engaging and insightful. By the halfway point I was struggling significantly. Near the end, I was pushing hard to just get through the final spots so that I could finally lay this book to rest.
I wish I could pinpoint the problems, but it feels almost intangible. I wanted to like this book, especially after the early chapters, but there is something wrong and I just can't bring myself to say that I liked it. Where it's good it's very good and where it's not it's mediocre at best. Sadly, there was not enough of the former to make up for the later.
That in itself is not a knock against the book. The problem is that it felt uneven—as if was addressing multiple topics that would have been better served in separate manuscripts—and it really made some sections a chore. Brilliant writing and interesting ideas punctuate the text (his theory that the Fall of Rome was an energy crisis is particularly fascinating), but something holds back the entirety of the book. The first sections are engaging and insightful. By the halfway point I was struggling significantly. Near the end, I was pushing hard to just get through the final spots so that I could finally lay this book to rest.
I wish I could pinpoint the problems, but it feels almost intangible. I wanted to like this book, especially after the early chapters, but there is something wrong and I just can't bring myself to say that I liked it. Where it's good it's very good and where it's not it's mediocre at best. Sadly, there was not enough of the former to make up for the later.
February 29, 2008
I particularly enjoyed this point capitalism:
"[Economic] growth makes the new industries and generates the new jobs needed to absorb technologically displaced workers. The American economy, for example, must expand 3 to 5% annually--doubling in size every fifteen to twenty-five years--just to keep unemployment from rising. And to get this growth, our leaders and corporations--operating on the implicit assumption that people can be inculcated with insatiable desires and ever-rising expectations--relentlessly encourage us to be hyper-consumers. With our willing and often eager acquiescence, merchants, credit card companies, and banks barrage us with advertising (often showing how we're falling behind our neighbor, Mr. Jones), while our economic policy makers ply us with economic incentives--like low interest rates and tax cuts--all to get us to borrow and buy with abandon. Despite the fact that our lives are saturated with stuff, that we've already reached a level of material abundance unimaginable to previous generations, and that more money and possessions add little to our happiness, we must be made to feel chronically discontented with our lot."
"[Economic] growth makes the new industries and generates the new jobs needed to absorb technologically displaced workers. The American economy, for example, must expand 3 to 5% annually--doubling in size every fifteen to twenty-five years--just to keep unemployment from rising. And to get this growth, our leaders and corporations--operating on the implicit assumption that people can be inculcated with insatiable desires and ever-rising expectations--relentlessly encourage us to be hyper-consumers. With our willing and often eager acquiescence, merchants, credit card companies, and banks barrage us with advertising (often showing how we're falling behind our neighbor, Mr. Jones), while our economic policy makers ply us with economic incentives--like low interest rates and tax cuts--all to get us to borrow and buy with abandon. Despite the fact that our lives are saturated with stuff, that we've already reached a level of material abundance unimaginable to previous generations, and that more money and possessions add little to our happiness, we must be made to feel chronically discontented with our lot."
November 26, 2010
A very interesting analysis on the challenges all societies face. Namely their rise and fall. The analysis boils down to the energy available to a society. When the Roman empire's supply of wheat and other foodstuffs (the energy currency of the times) declined following environmental degradation and migration, they could not maintain their territory. Granted it was not like a battery dying. Those clever Romans used all kinds of taxes and tricks to keep things going. Eventually to no avail. Today he draws parallels with our decline, or eventual decline, in the energy reserves of oil. It was interesting to read this after recently reading The World Is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-First Century which was pretty well the opposite. The World Is Flat had the opinion that globalization could only take us up. Point and counter-point. There were a lot of merits in both books. The Upside of Down certainly made me think differently about the role of energy in civilization.
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