Intelligence and Surprise Attack: Failure and Success from Pearl Harbor to 9/11 and Beyond

by Erik J. Dahl

How can the United States avoid a future surprise attack on the scale of 9/11 or Pearl Harbor, in an era when such devastating attacks can come not only from nation states, but also from terrorist groups or cyber enemies?

Intelligence and Surprise Attack examines why surprise attacks often succeed even though, in most cases, warnings had been available beforehand. Erik J. Dahl challenges the conventional wisdom about intelligence failure, which holds that attacks succeed because important warnings get lost amid noise or because intelligence officials lack the imagination and collaboration to "connect the dots" of available information. Comparing cases of intelligence failure with intelligence success, Dahl finds that the key to success is not more imagination or better analysis, but better acquisition of precise, tactical-level intelligence combined with the presence of decision makers who are willing to listen to and act on the warnings they receive from their intelligence staff.

The book offers a new understanding of classic cases of conventional and terrorist attacks such as Pearl Harbor, the Battle of Midway, and the bombings of US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania. The book also presents a comprehensive analysis of the intelligence picture before the 9/11 attacks, making use of new information available since the publication of the 9/11 Commission Report and challenging some of that report's findings.

Genres: Nonfiction, History, Politics, Military History

256 pages, Paperback

First published July 19, 2013

Reviews

[Raina S. · Rating 5 out of 5]

Dahl did an excellent job explaining intricate topics in a straightforward and informative manner. His arguments stood well-founded and researched, offering crucial wisdom to the intelligence community that was delivered in a concise, easily understandable way. This book was originally assigned to me as a course textbook, but it quickly became a book I could not put down because of its engaging information. I learned a lot, but even better, I am left with much more to think about.

[Shaydy]

Cogent collection of research on security successes and failures that is clear but repetitive in its analysis. Creating an understanding of how to collect tactical intelligence, even a breakdown of the who-what-where-when-how of an intelligence problem, would allow this work to bridge the gap between history and the present, between academia and a practical guide for aspiring or current analysts.

[Kingsley · Rating 5 out of 5]

As both a non-American and someone with little to no knowledge or background of the Intelligence industry I found this book highly engaging and thoroughly enjoyable. It is well researched, while providing the right level of information and explanation for 'entry level' understanding.

Right from the start Dahl sets out a clear roadmap of what the book aims to achieve and how it is going to get there. He provides a thesis and then what each chapter will contain and how it pertains to that thesis. It straight away gives a good idea of where he is going and helps the reader start to put things together.

Dahl, while referencing reports and dozens of other studies on intelligence, works through a variety of Intelligence 'successes' and 'failures' (although as he states those terms are argued about and are sometimes hard to pin down) starting with Pearl Harbour and moving through things like Midway, the Korean War, embassy bombings, the NYC 'Day of Terror' and September 11. The looks as the event and the intelligence leading up to each event, as well as how those in charge dealt with said intelligence.

Dahl puts three factors together for successful Intelligence - strategic information, specific information, and willingness to act on that information. He suggests that in almost every case we have high level strategic information but not always specific information that can be actioned (my understanding is that strategic information probably informs our "levels of preparedness" nowadays, such as if we are on 'general high alert' but cannot details of where and when attacks will occurs).

Many argue that it is lack of specific information that causes Intelligence failures. While this is often the case, Dahl argues (and shows through research) that it is also often a failure of willingness to act on the Intelligence (both strategic and specific) that causes failure. Intelligence itself is not enough for success, you need people to act on it.

I really enjoyed the mix of history and analysis.

The listened to the audiobook version, read by John N. Gully. Gully does well with the reading. He is clear, precise and easy to listen to. I enjoyed his work.

[Teressa · Rating 5 out of 5]

This was an extremely detailed timeline of surprise attacks dating from Pearl Harbor to the terrorist attacks of 9/11. It discusses the intelligence factor of these attacks, whether intelligence dropped the ball or was missed entirely or not acted on even though there may have been advanced warning.

While the audiobook was incredibly good, at times it was a little tedious. That doesn't take away from my five stars though because it was informative and did pose some very interesting facts. One of the earlier points made was concerning the intel surrounding Pearl Harbor. My question is if they did indeed know this was an imminent threat, what could have been done to prevent it aside from evacuation. I'm unsure whether or not we had the proper technology to have stopped it. I just don't know.

I also thought the timeline of events building up to 9/11 was very interesting. Overall, I thought this was a great audiobook and would definitely recommend it for anyone interested in this subject. Erik J. Dahl provides great examples and extensive research throughout the timeline regarding intel for all these events.

John N. Gully did a fantastic job narrating this audiobook. I liked the style he used, informative and reporter like which came across great. He spoke clearly and kept a steady pace. His work was flawless.

Audiobook received in exchange for unbiased review.

[Delta · Rating 5 out of 5]

This book is excellent. Dahl presents the facts without much bias, opting for the logical reasons behind terrorist attacks instead of the "doomed to fail" approach. He is methodical in his presentation of the facts and his conclusions. I found the book quite interesting and would recommend it to friends and family, no matter their level of understanding of the topic.

I listened to the audio version and I found John N. Gully to be very clear and easy to understand. His speed was great.

Great read and highly interesting.

**I received a copy of this book in exchange for an honest review.**

[Emily · Rating 5 out of 5]

I listened to the Audible version of this book which I do not recommend but am reviewing the content of the book.

Fascinating book that considers intelligence successes as well as failures. Rather than lump responsibility fully on analysts or sometimes policy makes Dahl approaches the subject with more nuance and draws the conclusion that only specific tactical intelligence provided to policy makers is capable of deterring surprise attacks. Excellent breakdown of historic and current case studies. A must read for any intelligence professional