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Setting Sun: The End of US Economic Dominance
What do tattoos, obesity, and America’s shrinking attention span have to do with our growing national debt? In Setting Sun, Brandon Adams explores how cultural shifts are merely signals of economic decline poised to create a very painful period in American history. Adams effortlessly explains the ugly and complicated truth about the U.S. economy and explores the political, social, and economic conflicts rising from the decisions lawmakers and ordinary Americans make each day. How did we go from being the world’s largest creditor nation to being the world’s largest debtor nation? Why can’t we answer simple questions about out money supply? How large will psychological variables loom over our new economic reality? Adams answers all the questions you aren’t hearing the media ask and lawmakers won’t talk about.
138 pages, Paperback
First published February 14, 2013
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February 26, 2026
An outsider offers a fine distillation of excellent writing and original thought about the US economy.
Many books analyze the current woes of the United States. At 124 pages, 37,000 words this one is of modest length. Aside from being succinct, two other attributes recommend this book. It is exceptionally clearly written, and the author is a self-made man, beholden to nobody, and able to offer a totally independent diagnosis.
A point he makes that is not often seen elsewhere is that Federal tax revenues have been a fairly constant 17%-20% of GDP ever since the 1950s. That's all people are willing to pay, subject as they are to state and local income taxes, property taxes and sales taxes.
However, the spending program has expanded vastly in that time. The biggest drivers are Medicare/Medicaid, Social Security, and interest on the federal debt. Defense spending is at a similar level, but does not have the same built-in growth.
Brandon Adams became the self-made man that he is via poker. It is the subject of his prior books. He makes rich use of poker analogies in this book.
Cheating is a fact of life in poker. When people can get away with it, they will. He says that Nixon cheated other countries, especially Britain, when he closed the gold window in 1971. The US had promised to sell gold at $35/ounce. We simply reneged. DeGaulle had had the foresight to take France's gold back. The English trusted us. They were had.
This is relevant because it is happening again. In Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid the US has made promises to its citizens that it has no means of fulfilling. Too many people are getting old, and they are living too long. The only way to make good on the promises is to satisfy them with dollars that are worth less. Far less. The alternative would be to declare a default and not pay them at all.
Adams says that the country, and in fact the world, is experiencing simultaneous bubbles in many areas. The current ones will eclipse historical bubbles such as Japan, NASDAQ, and housing.
He handicaps the players. Clinton was both smart and lucky; he didn't have the courage to tackle the fundamental budget imbalance, but he was able to kick the can down the road. Bush was neither smart nor lucky. He was foolish to get involved in expensive, unwinnable wars, and doubly foolish to cut taxes at the same time.
Adams is relatively kind to Greenspan. He says that Greenspan truly believed in Ayn Rand style laissez-faire government. His problem was the refusal to acknowledge how deeply government involvement distorted supposedly free markets.
He excoriates the GOP for the 2011 debt ceiling argument, saying "you cannot go broke if you print the money." Balancing the budget is a phony issue. The real issues don't get addressed.
He quotes Reinhart and Rogoff favorably and accurately. This is a service to the reader - those authors are truly the experts, but ponderous and academic. In a nutshell, governments everywhere borrow when credibility is high, then default or inflate away the money when they cannot repay.
Adams asks, can we avoid default or deflation? He says yes, but it is unlikely. That is as close as almost any author will come to the truth.
The Fed started debt monetization in 2009, when foreign buyers for debt could not be found.
The Fed is caught in a vicious cycle of interest rates. Either they print more and more money, or interest rates go up as money is scarce. If interest rates go up, the Federal government goes further out of balance.
The fatal flaw of balancing the budget immediately is that asset values go to zero. There are forced sales to meet debt, which further depresses prices. They are forced to keep on printing, to keep interest rates low.
The financial sector is the source of huge income inequality, and also a product of government policy. High levels of inequality result from pushing money to the banks. Adams says this is the implicit contract. We support the people at some minimal level and they don't rebel. Meanwhile, banks get rich and productive sectors of society are increasingly squeezed.
The US has fallen victim to the fatal twofold enticement of being able to print money, and to borrow in the currency it prints.
Adams' solution is hardly a solution. We have to keep on printing money because an uncertain disaster is preferable to a certain one. He says nix to tea party and European brands of austerity. Unfortunately, he doesn't see any way out. Neither do the central bankers like Dijsselbloem who are honest enough to offer opinions.
We are in a period of cognitive dissonance. Thirty year T bills pay only 3.05%, but everybody expects higher interest rates due to money printing.
Adams defines deflation as when people trust the currency, but not assets or much else. Inflation is when they don't trust the currency, only hard assets. For the moment, inexplicably, they seem to trust the dollar.
The effects of money printing will become evident when (and if) the economy returns to normal. Money already printed will remain in existence, and its velocity will increase, leading to inflation. In other words, money now stuck in banks and corporate coffers will start to be lent and spent.
Adams has an interesting quote on employment: "Those who suggest that new technologies will leave a large segment of people jobless are simply bound to be wrong in the long term; as technology allows more work to be done by fewer people, workers made redundant will find employment in some new area. The wealth creation that occurs as a result of improved productivity allows a society to create industries and jobs that service more specialized consumer needs."
That is how it should work. The way the system is structured now, especially in Europe, there are strong incentives not to work. Totally missing from this book is a discussion of demographics. He needs to consider people's cultural and intellectual ability to get an education and perform work that society needs to have done. Redundant, unemployed minorities have been accumulating for decades now. If there were substance to Adams' optimism, it should be evident by now.
Adams correctly notes that the present system results in misallocation of human capital. Countries are made wealthy by producing things - airplanes, software and whatnot. People find it easier to become wealthy nowadays by shuffling money, banking. We are not preparing our kids with skills that will make their country wealthy.
Standard analysis of QE thru QEternity
Poor people are hurt by inflation. Their debt burden may fall, but the value of their scanty assets and income falls also. This has the more immediate effect.
Adams offers a bit of unoriginal, but highly accurate social criticism. "What you get, at the end of the day, is a frenetic but listless population. We're wrecking our attention spans at a time when we need them, more than ever before, to tackle the relentless complexity of the modern economy.
We can probably expect wealth taxes such as now exist in France. Government has nowhere else to get the money, and those who own assets are a shrinking minority. Private pension assets are large and highly visible.
Why should the young be paying to support asset prices? They don't own any assets. A program that successfully uses government funds to prop up house prices hurts them twice: they have to pay higher taxes in expectation, and they will never get a cheap house.
This is a long review of a not-so-long book. It is a credit to Adams that he is able to pack so much information in such an easily-digested format. Adams' footnotes show a modernist's economy. They consist more of hyperlinks to magazine pieces than books. His goal is simply to tell the reader how it is; he is not making an argument to persuade those who might not believe him. My guess is that when we next hear of Adams, the story will be how he used these insights to capitalize on the situation. Maybe he'll become the subject of a book like Michael Lewis' "The Big Short."
Many books analyze the current woes of the United States. At 124 pages, 37,000 words this one is of modest length. Aside from being succinct, two other attributes recommend this book. It is exceptionally clearly written, and the author is a self-made man, beholden to nobody, and able to offer a totally independent diagnosis.
A point he makes that is not often seen elsewhere is that Federal tax revenues have been a fairly constant 17%-20% of GDP ever since the 1950s. That's all people are willing to pay, subject as they are to state and local income taxes, property taxes and sales taxes.
However, the spending program has expanded vastly in that time. The biggest drivers are Medicare/Medicaid, Social Security, and interest on the federal debt. Defense spending is at a similar level, but does not have the same built-in growth.
Brandon Adams became the self-made man that he is via poker. It is the subject of his prior books. He makes rich use of poker analogies in this book.
Cheating is a fact of life in poker. When people can get away with it, they will. He says that Nixon cheated other countries, especially Britain, when he closed the gold window in 1971. The US had promised to sell gold at $35/ounce. We simply reneged. DeGaulle had had the foresight to take France's gold back. The English trusted us. They were had.
This is relevant because it is happening again. In Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid the US has made promises to its citizens that it has no means of fulfilling. Too many people are getting old, and they are living too long. The only way to make good on the promises is to satisfy them with dollars that are worth less. Far less. The alternative would be to declare a default and not pay them at all.
Adams says that the country, and in fact the world, is experiencing simultaneous bubbles in many areas. The current ones will eclipse historical bubbles such as Japan, NASDAQ, and housing.
He handicaps the players. Clinton was both smart and lucky; he didn't have the courage to tackle the fundamental budget imbalance, but he was able to kick the can down the road. Bush was neither smart nor lucky. He was foolish to get involved in expensive, unwinnable wars, and doubly foolish to cut taxes at the same time.
Adams is relatively kind to Greenspan. He says that Greenspan truly believed in Ayn Rand style laissez-faire government. His problem was the refusal to acknowledge how deeply government involvement distorted supposedly free markets.
He excoriates the GOP for the 2011 debt ceiling argument, saying "you cannot go broke if you print the money." Balancing the budget is a phony issue. The real issues don't get addressed.
He quotes Reinhart and Rogoff favorably and accurately. This is a service to the reader - those authors are truly the experts, but ponderous and academic. In a nutshell, governments everywhere borrow when credibility is high, then default or inflate away the money when they cannot repay.
Adams asks, can we avoid default or deflation? He says yes, but it is unlikely. That is as close as almost any author will come to the truth.
The Fed started debt monetization in 2009, when foreign buyers for debt could not be found.
The Fed is caught in a vicious cycle of interest rates. Either they print more and more money, or interest rates go up as money is scarce. If interest rates go up, the Federal government goes further out of balance.
The fatal flaw of balancing the budget immediately is that asset values go to zero. There are forced sales to meet debt, which further depresses prices. They are forced to keep on printing, to keep interest rates low.
The financial sector is the source of huge income inequality, and also a product of government policy. High levels of inequality result from pushing money to the banks. Adams says this is the implicit contract. We support the people at some minimal level and they don't rebel. Meanwhile, banks get rich and productive sectors of society are increasingly squeezed.
The US has fallen victim to the fatal twofold enticement of being able to print money, and to borrow in the currency it prints.
Adams' solution is hardly a solution. We have to keep on printing money because an uncertain disaster is preferable to a certain one. He says nix to tea party and European brands of austerity. Unfortunately, he doesn't see any way out. Neither do the central bankers like Dijsselbloem who are honest enough to offer opinions.
We are in a period of cognitive dissonance. Thirty year T bills pay only 3.05%, but everybody expects higher interest rates due to money printing.
Adams defines deflation as when people trust the currency, but not assets or much else. Inflation is when they don't trust the currency, only hard assets. For the moment, inexplicably, they seem to trust the dollar.
The effects of money printing will become evident when (and if) the economy returns to normal. Money already printed will remain in existence, and its velocity will increase, leading to inflation. In other words, money now stuck in banks and corporate coffers will start to be lent and spent.
Adams has an interesting quote on employment: "Those who suggest that new technologies will leave a large segment of people jobless are simply bound to be wrong in the long term; as technology allows more work to be done by fewer people, workers made redundant will find employment in some new area. The wealth creation that occurs as a result of improved productivity allows a society to create industries and jobs that service more specialized consumer needs."
That is how it should work. The way the system is structured now, especially in Europe, there are strong incentives not to work. Totally missing from this book is a discussion of demographics. He needs to consider people's cultural and intellectual ability to get an education and perform work that society needs to have done. Redundant, unemployed minorities have been accumulating for decades now. If there were substance to Adams' optimism, it should be evident by now.
Adams correctly notes that the present system results in misallocation of human capital. Countries are made wealthy by producing things - airplanes, software and whatnot. People find it easier to become wealthy nowadays by shuffling money, banking. We are not preparing our kids with skills that will make their country wealthy.
Standard analysis of QE thru QEternity
Poor people are hurt by inflation. Their debt burden may fall, but the value of their scanty assets and income falls also. This has the more immediate effect.
Adams offers a bit of unoriginal, but highly accurate social criticism. "What you get, at the end of the day, is a frenetic but listless population. We're wrecking our attention spans at a time when we need them, more than ever before, to tackle the relentless complexity of the modern economy.
We can probably expect wealth taxes such as now exist in France. Government has nowhere else to get the money, and those who own assets are a shrinking minority. Private pension assets are large and highly visible.
Why should the young be paying to support asset prices? They don't own any assets. A program that successfully uses government funds to prop up house prices hurts them twice: they have to pay higher taxes in expectation, and they will never get a cheap house.
This is a long review of a not-so-long book. It is a credit to Adams that he is able to pack so much information in such an easily-digested format. Adams' footnotes show a modernist's economy. They consist more of hyperlinks to magazine pieces than books. His goal is simply to tell the reader how it is; he is not making an argument to persuade those who might not believe him. My guess is that when we next hear of Adams, the story will be how he used these insights to capitalize on the situation. Maybe he'll become the subject of a book like Michael Lewis' "The Big Short."
May 30, 2013
I have just completed the book Setting Sun: The End of U.S. Economic Dominance by Brandon Adams and I have to say I found it to be very well written and informative. In my line of work, I have to read all the time.
Normally, I am reading dry, scholarly research papers, many of which are on economics. These reports go on and on and put the reader to sleep. Brandon Adams has managed to take that same type of work and make it interesting.
I am not going to tell you that you will be riveted to your seat and not able to put the book down. What I will say is that if you are looking for a clear, relatively easy to understand explanation of the economy and why we are where we are in the United States, this is a good book to read.
Brandon Adams does not bombard his readers with a lot of economic theory nor does he attempt to make conclusions that are off base or unsupported. This book is not a dry textbook kind of read, but very much like talking to a teacher who understands that students do not already know everything there is to know about the subject.
The reader will not need a collegiate dictionary handy to read this book. The author explains the few terms that are not easy to understand.
Throughout the book, the author explains his position on certain economic events of the past, why he believes things are the way they are now, and what could happen in the future.
To be fair to the reader, I can see that the author has not had to rely on Medicare to take care of medical expenses. If he had, he would know that Medicare does not provide a blank check to the elderly and disabled. In fact, it pays for very little and makes the patient jump through hoops to use it.
To answer a question he stated in the book, yes, Medicaid should pay for braces. It does not in all states. My daughter’s cardiologist insisted that she needed braces because proper dental care is essential in the health of the heart.
When we told other doctors that our daughter has Marfan’s syndrome, they would chuckle and say, “Who told you that?” When we told them the name of the doctor, invariably the response would be, “Well, he would know.” Simply put, braces are often an essential part of overall health.
If you are interested in the economy, even at a basic level, you should read Setting Sun: The End of U.S. Economic Dominance. It could very well aid you in understanding the economic situation today and help you see what is happening in the future.
Disclosure of Material Connection: I received this book free from the author through his research assistant.. I was not required to write a positive review. The opinions I have expressed are my own. I am disclosing this in accordance with the Federal Trade Commission’s 16 CFR, Part 255 http://www.access.gpo.gov/nara/cfr/wa... : “Guides Concerning the Use of Endorsements and Testimonials in Advertising”.
Normally, I am reading dry, scholarly research papers, many of which are on economics. These reports go on and on and put the reader to sleep. Brandon Adams has managed to take that same type of work and make it interesting.
I am not going to tell you that you will be riveted to your seat and not able to put the book down. What I will say is that if you are looking for a clear, relatively easy to understand explanation of the economy and why we are where we are in the United States, this is a good book to read.
Brandon Adams does not bombard his readers with a lot of economic theory nor does he attempt to make conclusions that are off base or unsupported. This book is not a dry textbook kind of read, but very much like talking to a teacher who understands that students do not already know everything there is to know about the subject.
The reader will not need a collegiate dictionary handy to read this book. The author explains the few terms that are not easy to understand.
Throughout the book, the author explains his position on certain economic events of the past, why he believes things are the way they are now, and what could happen in the future.
To be fair to the reader, I can see that the author has not had to rely on Medicare to take care of medical expenses. If he had, he would know that Medicare does not provide a blank check to the elderly and disabled. In fact, it pays for very little and makes the patient jump through hoops to use it.
To answer a question he stated in the book, yes, Medicaid should pay for braces. It does not in all states. My daughter’s cardiologist insisted that she needed braces because proper dental care is essential in the health of the heart.
When we told other doctors that our daughter has Marfan’s syndrome, they would chuckle and say, “Who told you that?” When we told them the name of the doctor, invariably the response would be, “Well, he would know.” Simply put, braces are often an essential part of overall health.
If you are interested in the economy, even at a basic level, you should read Setting Sun: The End of U.S. Economic Dominance. It could very well aid you in understanding the economic situation today and help you see what is happening in the future.
Disclosure of Material Connection: I received this book free from the author through his research assistant.. I was not required to write a positive review. The opinions I have expressed are my own. I am disclosing this in accordance with the Federal Trade Commission’s 16 CFR, Part 255 http://www.access.gpo.gov/nara/cfr/wa... : “Guides Concerning the Use of Endorsements and Testimonials in Advertising”.
May 27, 2013
I must confess, when reading the intro of Setting Sun, I almost panicked that I had picked up a political polemic disguised as an academic piece.
Happily my fears were unfounded, true Adams' introduction is somewhat terse, fiery and opinionated, however the overall book is well researched, balanced and insightful.
Typically when reading information dense material, I find myself restricted to only absorbing a chapter (or even a page) per day, lest my brain explodes. While I won't be able to complete any pop-quizzes I found myself devouring Setting Sun in a couple of nights.
Much of the book is based on short to medium term historical trends in economics, although Adams dabbles in a while sociology (not enough to offend though!) and overall is very bleak, albeit accurate.
What amazed me the most about this book, is that despite sometimes strong points of view, on potentially controversial subjects I never felt the author was shallowly pushing their own agenda at the cost of accuracy. As a typically left-leaning person, I learnt mass amounts both for and against my current views.
I recommend this book for people who can take it. I'm assuming that those who can't handle the truth about the economic situation are not the best audience for this book, but anyone interested in genuine wisdom should check this out. Please note that this book is about the END of dominance for the US, so don't expect much material on solutions.
Happily my fears were unfounded, true Adams' introduction is somewhat terse, fiery and opinionated, however the overall book is well researched, balanced and insightful.
Typically when reading information dense material, I find myself restricted to only absorbing a chapter (or even a page) per day, lest my brain explodes. While I won't be able to complete any pop-quizzes I found myself devouring Setting Sun in a couple of nights.
Much of the book is based on short to medium term historical trends in economics, although Adams dabbles in a while sociology (not enough to offend though!) and overall is very bleak, albeit accurate.
What amazed me the most about this book, is that despite sometimes strong points of view, on potentially controversial subjects I never felt the author was shallowly pushing their own agenda at the cost of accuracy. As a typically left-leaning person, I learnt mass amounts both for and against my current views.
I recommend this book for people who can take it. I'm assuming that those who can't handle the truth about the economic situation are not the best audience for this book, but anyone interested in genuine wisdom should check this out. Please note that this book is about the END of dominance for the US, so don't expect much material on solutions.
November 7, 2015
Reads like a stream of doom and gloom consciousness at times. That’s not to say the concerns are not unfounded, but just that given Adams' intersection as tournament poker player and behavioral economics Ph. D. he puts an inherent focus on odds that are at the edge of probability. He dials it back as he explains his position, but the writing approach of leading with the exaggerated is off-putting if you’re not already in agreement of the title thesis.
Compared to most economics as presented by the media and by political actors, Adams gets it right in gist. This is a pop-economics book make no mistake, but it’s one I’d recommend to at least familiarize oneself with the practical concerns out there - as a first in a long series of reading. Even if you’re familiar with some of the academic background material, I might still recommend it if only to provide greater context. For instance actual actuarial studies on Social Security tend to lay out the facts on demographics an shortfall only and tend to shy away from discussion about actual policy options. Most other disciplines tend to do the same, not venturing too far outside their respective fields. Policy lives in this gap, and that’s where this book tries to fill in - with its thesis that’s a bit dark.
Compared to most economics as presented by the media and by political actors, Adams gets it right in gist. This is a pop-economics book make no mistake, but it’s one I’d recommend to at least familiarize oneself with the practical concerns out there - as a first in a long series of reading. Even if you’re familiar with some of the academic background material, I might still recommend it if only to provide greater context. For instance actual actuarial studies on Social Security tend to lay out the facts on demographics an shortfall only and tend to shy away from discussion about actual policy options. Most other disciplines tend to do the same, not venturing too far outside their respective fields. Policy lives in this gap, and that’s where this book tries to fill in - with its thesis that’s a bit dark.
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