The Extreme Future: The Top Trends That Will Reshape the World in the Next 20 Years

by James Canton

A renowned global futurist prepares businesses and individuals for the radical changes on the horizon

An advisor to three presidents spanning over thirty years, Dr. James Canton identifies probable outcomes and future trends in business, technology, environment, terrorism, population, and medicine to help companies and individuals prepare for the coming complex and volatile global changes, including:

-How climate change and energy trends will reshape the planet
-How astounding medicine trends will enhance people's lives
-How the rise of China will bring on a new global power struggle

In the tradition of Future Shock, Megatrends, and The Tipping Point, Extreme Future is the essential forecasting handbook for navigating the twenty-first century.

Genres: Nonfiction, Science, Business, Technology, Economics, Futurism

371 pages, Paperback

First published September 21, 2006

About the author

James Canton teaches the Wild Writing MA course at the University of Essex, exploring the fascinating ties between literature and the landscape of East Anglia. He has run workshops to encourage writing on nature and landscape and is the author of Out of Essex: Re-Imagining a Literary Landscape, which was inspired by rural wanderings in the county.

Reviews

[Paul · Rating 1 out of 5]

Written by a renowned futurist, adviser to presidents. Well, that explains a lot. This book is utter lunacy. But wait, you say, you're laughing now, but you'll see! Well, dear reader, I write to you from the future! And let me tell you, in year 2020, so often portrayed by this book, these predictions are only more ridiculous. The author shows zero grasp of science, or even basic reality of the world. I could quote some of the dumber things, but why, pick a page at random and find your own.

And now I have to go back to my world of 2020, where I watch live 2-way TV that manipulates my brain directly through audio waves so I can put in my shift as a nano-alchemist working together with my colleague who is a an AI on creating new virtual experiences for the hordes of boomers revitalised to be in their 40s. We've got access to one of those new version of quantum computers that can bend time and access its versions from other dimensions. Later I have an appointment with my robo doctor (so much more reliable than those fleshy meatbag ones) through the Internet 4 (so excited by the coming Internet 5!). Maybe I can get him to prescribe me some of those nanobots to give me an edge at work.

Forgive the poor satire, the book does it so much better. But it might cause you to alternate between laughing and screaming.

The funny thing about this book is that it also "predicts" many things which were already a reality in 2006 when it was published as if the author was not just terrible at predictions but also hopelessly uninformed. It also predicts multiple futures. I imagine so that later he can take out that particular quote and say that he got it right. Yes, whilst also getting it completely wrong one sentence later. Seriously, this book contains amounts of bullshit visible from space.

[Niall519 · Rating 1 out of 5]

The occasional interesting idea, drowned in a sea of self-aggrandising waffle.

It's a shame really. I had reasonable hopes for this. However it turned out to be written in a style that came across as a gormless executive making a speech at some boring meeting to other equally gormless executives, where the aim was much more toward talking about 'the other day when I was asked to brief the NSF' or 'my forecast for the future is...' It did this instead of dealing with much of the current state of the art or likely state of the art in the near future.

Having just read two books by real scientists recently, Canton's writing seems shallow and with no underpinning research. He rarely cites anyone or anything but himself, and while there is a reasonable index, there are no proper references or suggestions for further in-depth reading on a particular topic, or that allow for a reader to come to their own conclusions based on proper source material. What there is instead is chapters of 4 to 5 paragraph sections that read like current-affairs sound bites, strung between vapid diagrams, and capitalised phrases like "Power Tools of the Innovation Economy". And frankly if an author (and/or editor) can't be bothered to actually type out 'nanotechnology' in full more than once or twice, and simply keep referring to the whole field as "nano" it does leave me wondering if they really understand what the word means...

It's nice to read an up-beat assessment of the future occasionally, and I remain interested in futurism as a concept, but as one of my first reads into the field this was very disappointing. I read Freeman Dyson's The Sun, The Genome, and The Internet years ago, and still regard that well (despite agreeing with many of the criticisms made of it), especially in comparison to The Extreme Future. It was thoughtful and considerably less fluffy and hyperbolic.

I'm left wondering James Canton's PhD. is actually in. Marketing? Self-promotion? Name dropping?

Perhaps the kindest thing I can write about this one is that you can see it as a product of its time. Post-September the 11th but pre-Global Financial Crisis. I imagine that some of Dr. Canton's forecasts and ideas have undergone some revision in the light of the past two to three years' events.

[Ariadna73 · Rating 4 out of 5]

Me gustó este libro sobre lo que va a suceder en un futuro extremo. Una frase que me encantó: La persona que no tiene futuro, es la más peligrosa del mundo.



El liro habla del futuro laboral que se convertirá en un escenario en el cual las empresas lucharán con uñas y dientes por el talento.



Habla del futuro del terrorismo, que será energético, en la comida, en el agua y en el aire.



Habla del futuro de EUA, que debe ponerse las pilas si quiere seguir siendo una democracia próspera.


Habla de la fuerza que está tomando China, y de las razones por las que a pesar de tener 300 millones de personas en la extema pobreza, es una de las economías más pujantes del planeta.



En conclusión, me gustó el libro y puede servir de referencia para trabajos en los que se mencionen las tendencias de la era moderna.



Te invito a que visites mi blog: http://lunairereadings.blogspot.com

[Daniel · Rating 3 out of 5]

This book is really interesting in its far reaching implications. One thing though that I've noticed with these kinds of books is that many of them failed to note any of the stark economic realities facing most of the world at the moment. You can almost draw a line in history at September of 2008 and say that the Utopian futures were written pre-09/08 while their distopian counters were written post 09/08. But then, the exact same thing could be said of most of books on the economy written over the past 18 months as the financial crisis has turned many of yesterday's princes into the toads of today.

The boundless optimism of the book is hardly seen today and I would be very interested to see what a follow-up on this book would look like say in the middle of the first (and only?) Obama term as President, when the crisis of the economy is either on its way toward resolution and recovery or collapse into depression. The kinds of funding that the projects outlined in this book would require to become a reality seem to have been diverted by the necessities of propping up our bubble economies to the point where one wonders if they will ever be put back on track. It probably doesn't help that one of the opening chapters in this book is titled, "Finding Prosperity: The Innovation Economy".

Essentially, this book suffers from the same kind of flaws that plague Fareed Zakaria's "The Post-American World", a wholehearted belief that globalization is both necessary and unstoppable and that the extreme growth of the past five years would continue unimpeded, allowing for emerging markets to take part in the democratizing, and providing of a true market based on freedom and fresh thinking. Instead now, it appears that for at least the next few years, the exact opposite will be true. Parts of the world will recover quickly, others not at all. Again, Social Darwinism at the level of nation/states and/or cultures may determine who comes out ahead and which drastic and unforeseen turns truly shape the world we live in for the next 50 years.

Stalled economies don't produce innovation at the same rate as stable, growth economies. Still, the book is amazing as an analysis of what is possible even if it is not exactly a study of what is probable. A very worthy read, but I think that whatever Dr. James Canton comes up with taking into account the masses of changing data from the global financial crises will be a truly great read.

I guess it is true, the future ain't what it used to be.

[Nick · Rating 3 out of 5]

It would be easy to dismiss this book based on all the failed predictions, but that misses the point. Trajectories matter more. They are laid out fairly well, but buried under sensationalist styling. I suppose it's the futurist's job to wow people, which is a strength and a weakness.

[Mon · Rating 3 out of 5]

This book explains about global future which is predicted by scientifical method.
The explanation is so detailed and deep. The first edition was published in 2009 but it's still relevant until now. The explanation consists of health, industry, business, economic, climate, technology, and energy. The writer examines the trend which might happen in ten years and onwards.

Fuel energy, which is used to maximize industry production may run out in a short amount of time, that's why we must replace it because industry production must be developed every year and the need for fuel energy keeps on coming.

When viewed through technological aspect, it can predict the rapid progress to increase performance of a modern human.

For example in the economy sector, the consumption increases with each passing year in order to keep the trade going up, that means we need the newest innovation and knowledge for all support system.

Many more had been described by developing fields about the things that may become a trend in years to come. Some facts about the prediction that are proven to be true surprise me, but there is something I cannot accept with my logic, especially a trend that will occur in the field of medicine. Maybe because of my focus on the field or because that thing is not yet to happen so I feel it will be impossible.

If you are curious about the future, you must read this book😁
⭐3,5/5

[Vy Trần · Rating 3 out of 5]

Một số phân tích xã hội thú vị, sâu sắc . Viết trùng lặp nhiều , hàng trang giấy có thể tóm tắt trong vài dòng . Xem xét tương lai như các khía cạnh riêng rẽ , thiếu tính liên kết . Quá lạc quan về triển vọng khoa học , nhân cách loài người và mối quan tâm của công chúng với các vấn đề toàn cầu . Không phải ai cũng có thể tiếp cận thương mại tự do hay lựa chọn dòng sản phẩm , đặc biệt là một số nước chịu cai quản của chế độ độc tài . Chủ nghĩa con buôn bất chấp hậu quả ở một số nước cũng kìm hãm nền kinh tế toàn cầu , tự do và dân chủ . Ảo tưởng về TQ , quá lạc quan / tin người ? ( sản xuất ổn định , chất lượng tuyệt vời , giá hợp lý ??:D?? ) ( đối tác TQ sáng tạo riêng cho cô ) ( bài học về tương lai của toàn cầu hoá đang nằm ở TQ ) . Có những ví dụ phân tích hướng không hợp lý ( vd : mason mills ) . Đọc như thể tác giả ca ngợi chính sách kinh tế TQ :D? Quá lạc quan về chính trị TQ cũng như thái độ của người Mỹ với người nhập cư . Nghịch lý : vừa kêu gọi thay đổi vừa dự báo tương lai tốt đẹp .

[JLo Tran · Rating 4 out of 5]

Mình đọc lại cuốn này vào năm 2018, có nghĩa là sau 12 năm từ khi cuốn sách ra đời- năm 2006, được Việt Nam NXB tuổi trẻ dịch năm 2011 -Mất 5 năm rồi. Đọc để hiểu về định nghĩa tương lai mà tác gỉa James Canton hiểu cũng như xác nhận lại những dự đoán về tương lai của tác giả.
Nhận xét chung thì để đọc thì đây là cuốn cần 1 lượng kiến thức khá sâu để hiểu. Từ năng lượng thế giới đến kinh tế toàn cầu, từ lực lượng lao động đến y khoa trường sinh, từ thay đổi khí hậu đến sự va chạm giữa các nền văn hóa.
Về sự thay đổi năng lượng điện tử, hay sống sạch, công nghệ nano, công nghệ sinh học đều đúng, nếu có sai số thì tầm 3 năm. Riêng về ngành IT thì mình thấy dự đoán chưa đúng, thậm chí chưa nói được về tương lai của VR, AI.
Chưa kể hiện nay là thời đại của crypto.
Tuy nhiên, tác giả cũng đưa cho mình được cái nhìn tổng quan về nền kinh tế thế giới.
Nói chung, 1 cuốn sách đáng đọc để phát triển thêm về tư duy, tầm nhìn trong thời đại công nghệ 4.0

[Ahmad Mohee · Rating 5 out of 5]

A terrible book I do not recommend reading it because you will come to believe that the gap between Arabs and the developed world is coming so long that we reverberate to the point of pooping and walking naked on the street before the human decided to get rid of our burden and hit the siphon ... However, if you are anxious about the future (like myself), this book gives you a great deal of credibility about the image of the world in the future ...

كتاب رهيب لا أنصح بقراءته لانك هتوصل لقناعة ان الهوة هتزداد بينا وبين العالم المتقدم الفترة القادمة لدرجة اننا هنرجع نمشي ملط ونعمل بي بي في الشارع قبل أن تقرر البشرية أن تتخلص من عبئنا و تضرب علينا السيفون...ومع ذلك اذا كنت من المهمومين بالمستقبل (مثلي) هيوفر لك هذا الكتاب قدر كبير من الموثوقية عن صورة العالم في المستقبل...

[Demi Narendra · Rating 2 out of 5]

The first few pages were intriguing but as I read more the book feels more like a self-absorbed person spilling out so much nonsense. The correct predictions in this book weren’t all that mind-blowing because an average educated man would have seen them from a distance and as for the wrong predictions, he was just too optimistic. I’m certain if I had read this book the year it was published, my opinion would be the same as this one. This book also promised to give tips on how to make a rough sketch of the future. But of course, the tips the writer gave weren’t very critical. Overall, I am disappointed in this book

[Y Diên Vĩ · Rating 2 out of 5]

Cuốn sách đọc cuối năm 2020, cuốn sách ở tầm vĩ mô và lý thuyết quá hoặc do lĩnh vực và trình độ không nằm trong khả năng mình được trải nghiệm nên nó thực sự xa vời.
Tuy có một ý đúng là năm 2020 dịch bệnh xảy ra thật, biến thể sâu xa hơn của Sar

[Gary Bourke · Rating 3 out of 5]

Contains some interesting concepts, but now dated. Useful background reading for anyone doing research into the links between technology, democracy, capitalism and identity in future societies.

[Stefan Persson · Rating 1 out of 5]

thought there only was 150 000 ways of say globalisation is important and imminent....this guy found another few thousand ways of saying the same thing.

[Muhammad · Rating 2 out of 5]

Buku ini adalah buah pemikiran dari seorang futurist ternama, James Canton, yang pernah berkesempatan untuk memberikan masukan bagi Gedung Putih tentang apa yang akan terjadi di masa mendatang pasca-serangan 9/11.

Yang sangat terkait dengan sistem inovasi adalah poin kedua, yaitu ekonomi inovasi (innovation economy). Terminologi innovation economy digunakan oleh Canton untuk menjelaskan adanya pergeseran dalam pemaknaan ekonomi di masa depan. Ekonomi sendiri telah didefinisikan sebagai usaha kolektif yang termasuk di dalamnya proses-proses produksi, distribusi, dan perdagangan dalam sebuah area tertentu dari level desa, ke level regional, ke bangsa, hingga level internasional. (hal. 50) Sebuah perekonomian juga terkait dengan arus penyebaran ide, modal, pasar, bakat, dan pertumbuhan. (hal. 50). Oleh Canton, pendefinisian semacam itu kembali disusun dalam The Extreme Future menjadi pengertian yang berdasarkan realitas-realitas baru pada abad keduapuluh satu, bahwa perekonomian hanya akan dapat survive apabila mampu menguasai inovasi. Jika setiap individual di dalamnya mengerti dan berperan dalam inovasi maka kesemua individu akan berkontribusi dalam mewujudkan kesejahteraan. Sedang peran individu yang maksimal ini tetap ada dalam bingkai kebebasan dan perlindungan hukum.
Oleh karenanya ekonomi inovasi didefinisikan sebagai;
“a new fusion of technology and economics, creating global wealth, prosperity, and power. This emerging trend thrives in democracies where personal lyberty is respected by law.” (hal. 51)
Terma Inovasi diartikan oleh Canton sebagai “a newly synthesized idea, product, services, or process that has potential to act as an accelerator of competitive advantage for a nation, a region, an industry, an organization, an individual, or some combination of all of these categories.” (hal. 52) dilanjutkannya juga bahwa inovasi akan menghasilkan perkembangan nilai yang baru, solusi, keuntungan, peningkatan market share, dan kembalinya keuntungan investasi. Yang terpenting untuk diperhatikan adalah ; inovasi tidaklah cukup jika hanya terjadi di lab-lab penelitian, semestinya inovasi mampu diserap dalam perekonomian, dan bahwa inovasi harus diterima dalam masyarakat mau pun marketplace.
Canton melihat perekonomian sebagai sesuatu yang bersifat evolusioner, seperti halnya dengan biologi. Dalam konteks evolusi, semua kehidupan selalu berusaha beradaptasi untuk survive. Inovasi yang evolutif berarti pijakan bagi kemajuan-kemajuan inovatif berikutnya.
Kaitannya dengan sistem sosial-politik, Canton menekankan bahwa Demokrasi mendorong inovasi (hal 55). Karena itu selalu dibutuhkan kontinuasi dan akselerasi pemerintahan-pemerintahan yang demokratis. Demokrasi mendorong inovasi, inovasi menciptakan kemakmuran. Kemakmuran selalu menciptakan kondisi yang mantap untuk produktivitas dan open society. Kebebasan juga mendorong kemakmuran dan lebih banyak kesempatan untuk individu. Semua dari aspek-aspek ini berjalin kelindan saling mempengaruhi satu sama lain. Dikatakannya bahwa Demokrasi, kapitalisme, dan inovasi berkorelasi mutualisme satu sama lain (hal. 56). Hanya dalam demokrasi, individu memiliki kebebasan untuk menumbuhkan kapitalisme yang mantap dan pada akhirnya menciptakan mekanisme inovasi yang mantap. Canton juga melihat bahwa pengertian yang semacam ini bukanlah suatu ideologi yang hanya dimiliki secara spesifik oleh satu negara tertentu, justru ekonomi inovasi adalah suatu kultur global di masa depan.

Formula dari Ekonomi Inovasi (hal. 57):
I + C + D = P2 (Inovasi + Kapitalisme + Demokrasi = Kemakmuran dan Perdamaian)

[Rasha Said · Rating 4 out of 5]

الكتاب جيد في تحفيز الذهن على التفكير خارج الصندوق. وإن كان المؤلف وقع في فخ التفكير النمطي ذاته، فلم يرى في العالم العربي سوى مخزن للنفط.. ومصر لتهديدات قادمة من تنظيمات جهادية مسلحة... ولم يذكر المؤلف المسلمون والإسلام. إلا بذكر قول أحد المسلمين له أن الإسلام لا بيح التفكير في المستقبل وأنه احترم وجهة نظره... الشئ الذي جعلني أستاء حقا أن هذا العالم. وهو بالمناسبة أحد أهم علماء المستقبليات في الغرب لم يقض فترة كافية في إحدى بلدان العالم والأغلب أنه اعتمد على انطباعاته العامة وقراءاته... حقيقة نحن عالة على الإنسانية منذ قرون... ولكن التفكير في المستقبل الأقصى كما يحدده المؤلف يستدعي القفز على الواقع واستكشاف البذور الكامنة فيه ...وعلى كل يقدم الكتاب في الفصل الأول قراءة بسيطة وعميقة للتفكير في المستقبل. منها مثلا أنه حدد العوامل التي يتحدد على أساسها المستقبل الأقصى بخمس عوامل: (1- السرعة؛ بمعى أن معدل التغيير سيكون مبهرا، وشاملا من حيث المجال والمدى، سيمس كل جانب من حياتنا. 2- التعقيد؛ قفزة كمية في عدد القوى غير المرتبطة ظاهريا وستكون لها تأثير مباشر على كل شئ من أساليب الحياة إلى العمل والأمن الشخصي والقومي. 3- الخطر؛ أخطار جديدة، أخطار أعلى وتهديدات أكثر ابتداء من كل ما يوقع الرعب في النفوس إلى الجريمة وجيشان الاقتصاد العالمي. 4- التغيير: تغييرات قاسية في عملك، جماعتك، وعلاقاتك ستجبرك على التكيف سريعا مع التغيرات الجذرية. 5- المفاجأة: التي قد تكون جيدة أحيانا، ومن الصعب تخيلها أحيانا أخرى، ستصبح سمة يومية لحياتك متحدية في أغلب الأحيان المنطق والإدراك.

[Lisa · Rating 1 out of 5]

1. The book is outdated - 2006.
2. I was not impressed with the author's ability to predict future trends (nor would I consider 5-20 years forward "the extreme future").
3.There's too much filler and fluff in his chapters, and he's overly boastful (consistently drops company names, accolades, social status, etc). I didn't see any 'added value' to the information he provided.
4. I agree with another reviewer.... he didn't predict the recession or global economic tightening (over consumption of resources, financial bubble, etc).

[Христо Блажев · Rating 3 out of 5]

“В дълбините на бъдещето” на Джеймс Кантън показва пътища и към рая, и към ада
http://www.knigolandia.info/2010/02/b...

Кой ли не би искал да надникне в това, което предстои? Но не с кълбо и зърна боб за цяла яхния, а с помощта на науката. Ето, Джеймс Кантън прави това. Той е директор на “Института за глобални перспективи” и по собствените му хвалби на първите страници прави сериозни прогнози за близките 2 десетилетия, поръчани от най-мощните глобални корпорации.

[Cherice · Rating 4 out of 5]

This book provides a nice overview of the larger issues we should be thinking about in business, education, and even our personal preparations for the future. Although the book is clearly written for a popular audience and the rhetoric is certainly sensationalized and interested in stirring people up, I think his predictions are, for the most part, going to prove quite accurate.

[Quinn · Rating 4 out of 5]

Some really good points and a firm outlook on the U.S.A. as it compares with other nations. I especially liked the emphasis on making progress in science and technology and on improving our education system. I did find some of the finer points of the writing lacking, but I blame the editor more than the author.

[Global Donnica · Rating 4 out of 5]

This book was informative...It 's truly on point about the upcoming and current trends... America needs to wake up and America's Youth need to truly become more aware of global issues and tha challenges that awaits us all...

[Fairus · Rating 2 out of 5]

Absurd and most of the time went overboard, especially if you are reading it now, in 2015. The only chapters that are making sense were the last 2 about china and future of America. There rest of the ideas were just like taking a wild guess.

[Gprastudya · Rating 5 out of 5]

This book give u a closer look for what we might heading in the future. Bring a alot of idea

[Rene Suhardono]

Brilliant insights by James Canton. Shrewdly predicted what will occur to our world in the next 5, 10 and 20 years from now. He also said that "Global Headhunters" will prevail!

[Big · Rating 4 out of 5]

Interesting and very scary book. A look at our possible future and in some ways it looks pretty bleak. Anyone who reads this book cannot stay apathetic.

[Amber · Rating 2 out of 5]

Badly written but it does offer some interesting insights into what could be in the near, near future.

[Indonesiaadvertising · Rating 3 out of 5]

Reading this book somehow bring new understanding about what might happens in the future. Prepare to what ahead and ready to doing it.

[Jorgehrdz · Rating 5 out of 5]

An excellent prospective with a several data of future trends in different categories that will impact the societies in the 21th century.

[PMP · Rating 4 out of 5]

Already vintage in some ways.

[Mojca · Rating 4 out of 5]

4 stars

[Brendan · Rating 3 out of 5]

Also ' Extremely Lucky '. Guy was book for Flight 93 on 9 - 11, then decided to leave a day early.