The Credit Investor Handbook
Most useful reference book great refresher
1. Understanding the Credit Cycle
Credit markets operate in a predictable cycle:
• Expansion: Leverage increases; lending standards loosen.
• Downturn: Debt servicing struggles; lending tightens.
• Repair: Firms deleverage and cut costs.
• Recovery: Credit markets reopen.
2. Rise of Private Credit
Private credit now makes up 20% of the leveraged finance market, up from 5% in 2002, as direct lending displaces traditional bank financing.
3. The Five C’s of Credit
• Character: Trust in leadership.
• Capacity: Cash flow to service debt.
• Capital: Equity buffer in distress.
• Condition: Industry and macro factors.
• Collateral: Asset backing for debt.
4. The 7-Step Framework for Credit Analysis
1. Sources & Uses: Purpose of capital raise.
2. Qualitative Risk: Industry, business model, and management.
3. Financials: Profitability, liquidity, leverage.
4. Forecasting: Key assumptions and downside scenarios.
5. Valuation: Relative value via comps, DCF, liquidity.
6. Docs & Structure: Terms, collateral, covenants.
7. Memo: Thesis, risks, valuation vs alternatives.
5. Distressed Investing
Opportunities arise when debt trades significantly below face value or a firm nears restructuring. Tactics include:
• Distressed-for-Control: Buying debt to gain equity post-bankruptcy.
• Legal Strategy: Success relies on negotiation, legal leverage, and creditor psychology.
6. 8 Distressed Strategies
1. Emergency financing
2. Spread tightening
3. Control acquisitions
4. Deep value buys
5. Cap structure arbitrage
6. Trade claims
7. Liquidations
8. Special situations
7. Bankruptcy Essentials
• Chapter 11 (reorganization) dominates over Chapter 7 (liquidation).
• Court grants “automatic stay” and DIP financing keeps the business running.
• Debtors negotiate with creditor committees (esp. unsecured) to confirm a reorg plan.
• Equity often wiped, debt converts to equity in NewCo.
8. Common Bankruptcy Fights
• Valuation: Stakeholders fight for favorable valuation to influence recovery.
• 363 Sales: Secured creditors use debt as currency (credit bid), often seen as undervaluing assets.
• Clawbacks: Debtors may reverse payments made pre-filing (preference/fraudulent conveyance).
• Equitable Subordination: Bad actor creditors may be pushed down the capital stack.
• Lender Liability & Consolidation: Legal risks if lenders act overly controlling or if business units are too entangled.
9. Subordination Types
• Temporal: Bankruptcy accelerates maturity.
• Contractual: Defined in agreements.
• Structural: HoldCo debt is structurally subordinate to OpCo obligations.
10. Creditor-on-Creditor Conflict
• Covenant-lite loans make it easier for companies to exploit loopholes.
• Asset Stripping: Firms move valuable assets outside creditors’ reach.
• Manufactured Defaults: CDS buyers can exploit technical terms to trigger payouts.
11. Keys to Success in Distressed
• Deep legal insight, doc diligence, and negotiation strength drive returns.
• Understanding stakeholder motivations is often more critical than financial models.
Raw notes:
The credit cycle
1. expansion companies increase leverage more m&a, capex, looser lending standards
2. Downturn companies have trouble servicing their debt lenders tighten lending standards
3. Repair companies focus on deleveraging and growing cash flow by cutting costs and CAPEX
4. Recovery Credit markets open again
Private credit is now 20% of the leverage finance market compared to 5% in 2002
The five c’s of credit
Character: a view on the leadership of the borrower, its reputation, and strategy
Capacity: a focus on the borrower's ability to generate enough cash flow to service the debt
Capital: is there equity in place to cushion the debt in case of distress
Condition: firms' competitive environment
Collateral: quality of assets securing the borrower's debt
7 steps to analyzing a credit trade
- 1 source and use (only applicable to originations). Why is the company seeking financing? What are the proposed sources of capital needed to fund the financing?
- 2 qualitative risk analysis. (a) Industry and business risk analysis determines the risk, industry competitive dynamic, cyclicality, and government regulation. (b) Business strategy. What is the business's competitive advantage? Who is the business serving? SWOT analysis? (c) Management assessment: Does the company have the right people to execute its strategy? Does management have the skills and flexibility to revolve its strategy as needed in response to industry changes?
- 3 financial statement analysis (a) profitability adjusts the income statement to back out nonrecurring gains and losses and tie to better competitor analysis as well as economic reality, (b) cash flow and liquidity, assess the company ability to repay debts, manage working capital cycle and potential levers to improve liquidity (c) capital structure leverage ratio, loan to value, coverage ratio
- 4 forecasting (a) key business drivers and assumptions (b) scenario analysis
- 5 valuation (comps, precedents, DCF & liquidity analysis)
- 6 structure and docs (economic points, structure and collateral, and covenants)
- 7 The memo - investment thesis and recommendation, risk and mitigants, and valuation (for valuation, it's all about relative to the other opportunities available)
Distressed investing
- Debt trading at 85% below face value or a company likely facing restructuring or a liquidity crisis
- Distressed debt has a gruesome reputation but can provide some interesting opportunities
- Distressed for control, investing buy the company debt to end up with control of the company through bankruptcy proceedings - benefit from slowly building up position and if competition comes in buying the debt can sell to them for a profit, no competition from strategic buyers, original debt holders might be forced to sell by fund restrictions
8 strategies for distressed debt investing
1. New financing for companies that can't access credit markets
2. Spread tightening trades
3. Distressed for control
4. Fundamental Value play
5. Capital structure arbitrage
6. Trade claims and vendor puts
7. Liquidations
8. Unique special situation trades
A good return is driven by credit analysis and successful legal arguments, astute assessment of other parties' motivations and limitations, and ability to negotiate a good deal with other creditors and creditor classes
Bankruptcy 101
Bankruptcy judges are not obligated to follow a strict interpretation of the bankruptcy code as the court has “equitable power” to achieve a fair outcome. This incentivizes the creditors to negotiate a resolution rather than leave it to a judge
Primary reasons for filing
- liquidity crisis - credit crunch can't refinance or operational cash burn - working capital pulls support
- Unsustainable capital structure - the company's upside-down debt exceeds TEV
- Need to resolve litigation
Types of bankruptcy filings
- Chapter 7 liquidation
- Chapter 11 reorganization
Chapter 11 is the focus, as Chapter 7 is just liquidation, i.e., no more going concern
The company voluntarily files Chapter 11, and it can range from prepackaged, fully negotiated pre-filing, so the shortest time in bankruptcy is 45-90 days, prearranged partially negotiated with time anywhere from 90 to 1 year+ and traditional or freefall nothing is negotiated and can take 1 to 3+ years
The typical process is the first-day motion, which provides an “automatic stay,” an injunction that stops lawsuits, foreclosure, etc. Hence, a timeout as the company focuses on the “plan of reorganization POR” is 120 days to file. Securing DIP financing keeps the business going while going through this process. If needed, DIP is subordinate to all secured lending if the collateral covers the secured creditors. Typically, this financing is provided by these secured creditors to avoid a priming fight.
Formation of committees, including the official committee of unsecured creditors (UCC), including typically senior unsecured bondholders, financial institutions, vendors, landlords, and pension benefit guaranty who hire lawyers and FAs to negotiate with the debtor on the POR to maximize the consideration received by this class. The debtor typically pays back the fees incurred by UCC
Debtor management is working on improving operations by cost-cutting and formulating the POR to restructure the BS
During Chapter 11, you can negotiate contracts not typical to every day going concerns like leases and union contracts
Voting on the POR is based on claims that are impaired. The unimpaired class does not vote since they will get the value of their claims back in collateral, etc. The typical order of payment is admin fees for the restructuring or vendor sales to the debtor post ch11, other priority salaries, etc., secured, generally unsecured, and equity
Confirmation is the court approval of the POR once all impaired classes vote in favor
Emergence of new co with wiped-out equity made up of debt converted to equity
Bankruptcy fights
Common bankruptcy fights
- valuation fights: The lower the capital structure, the more that class fights for higher valuations so they can have some recovery vs none. The higher class wants a lower valuation of equity. That way, they don't have to share.
- Credit bids and 363 asset sale process: complaints of this process given it does not allow for the company to receive its maximum value as the sale is rushed and the secured creditors are allowed to use their existing debt at face as part of the bid instead of cash this creates a bidding credit as the trading level of the debt is likely discounted
- avoidance actions: debtor lawsuit to recover money related to pre-bankruptcy (90 days before filing extending to one year for insider)
- - section 547 preference: it's all about fairness. You can't favor certain vendors for payment. Debtors ask for repayment “clawback” from creditors during the preference period. The two common defenses by creditors to get out of the clawback are “ordinary course of business” and “new value” payment was for a product or service rendered during the preference period, not an old obligation
- - section 548 fraudulent conveyance: gives the company the ability to unwind a prebankruptcy transfer of assets if two criteria are met: the company was insolvent when the transfer was made or became insolvent due to the transaction and the company received less than the fair value for transferred assets
- Equitable subordinations: allows the court to lower the priority a claim. Three conditions: the claimant must have engaged inequitable conduct and the misconduct must have injurred other creditors or conferred unfair advantage on claimant and subordination must not conflict with other provisions of the bankruptcy code. Need to be careful in paper trail as debt holder with equity can't be seen to have undue pressure or you claim may be put as equity given your behaviour other credit class will fight for this to improve their recovery
- Lender liability claims: borrowed sues the lender for breach of contract, lender is liable for damages which can be greater than their loan.
- Substantive consolidation: the court rules the entity is consolidated typically if creditor dealt with entity as a single economic unit not relying on separate identity in extending credit and the affairs of the entity are so entangled that creating accurate stand-alone financials prove impossible or expensive
How subordination works in bankruptcy
- Time subordination: once bankrupt h is filed all debt is considered accelerated maturity date becomes meaningless but if a company is distressed and yet to file then maturity becomes critical that's why the springing maturity pricishon exist in mezzanine debt
- Contractual subordination sometimes the lower on claim night have a claim above the others need to read docs to understand the structure and where they stand
- Structural subordination:this has to do with holdCo’s vs OpCos
Liability management and creditor on creditor violence
- covlite bonds have led to more lender on lender conflict as different classes have different prioritites
- Asset stripping creating new entities to protect the assets that matter from creditors (ubisoft situation?) lenders should read the documents if the credit agreement have large permitted investment basket that can be used to move material assets into non-ceeditor entitities without lender consent, you risk asset stripping. Ensure pro-rata rights or you might find yourself upside down.
- CDS manufactured defaults sometimes the CDS buyer can do some shady shit to make the lender default.
Making money in distressed situations
- no access to capital markets: emergency financing, dip loans and exit financing
- Spread tightening trades: when bonds trade to low a price or too high a spread/yield relative to ubderlying risk so could be that the credit is about to get upgraded compressing the spread which is yield to to the buyer or vice versa
- Distressed for control trade: buy the debt security that will get the equity in a bankcruptcy judgement around claims
- Fundamental valuation plays pure analyst valuation vs market. if higher higher go long if Lower go short.
- Capital structure arbitrage: going long one security while going short another within the company’s capital structure (liquidity, legal, insurance or put trades)
- Trade claims and vendor puts: buying AP claims or selling CDS on these claims
- Liquidations: markets draconian assumptions, which in the authors experiences leads to more upside than downside surprises. List every asset; perform due diligence on what those asset are worth what claims are owner and priority than distribute claims. Top liquidators of inventory is Gordon brothers, great Americans, Hilco and tiger.
- Unique special situations trades: Argentinian default and Elliott 14 year battle leading to 2.4b claim on $115m a 20x return