Fortune Tellers: The Story of America's First Economic Forecasters

by Walter A. Friedman

A gripping history of the pioneers who sought to use science to predict financial markets

The period leading up to the Great Depression witnessed the rise of the economic forecasters, pioneers who sought to use the tools of science to predict the future, with the aim of profiting from their forecasts. This book chronicles the lives and careers of the men who defined this first wave of economic fortune tellers, men such as Roger Babson, Irving Fisher, John Moody, C. J. Bullock, and Warren Persons. They competed to sell their distinctive methods of prediction to investors and businesses, and thrived in the boom years that followed World War I. Yet, almost to a man, they failed to predict the devastating crash of 1929.

Walter Friedman paints vivid portraits of entrepreneurs who shared a belief that the rational world of numbers and reason could tame--or at least foresee--the irrational gyrations of the market. Despite their failures, this first generation of economic forecasters helped to make the prediction of economic trends a central economic activity, and shed light on the mechanics of financial markets by providing a range of statistics and information about individual firms. They also raised questions that are still relevant today. What is science and what is merely guesswork in forecasting? What motivates people to buy forecasts? Does the act of forecasting set in motion unforeseen events that can counteract the forecast made?

Masterful and compelling, Fortune Tellers highlights the risk and uncertainty that are inherent to capitalism itself.

Genres: Economics, Nonfiction

288 pages, Hardcover

First published January 1, 2013

Reviews

[Mad Hab · Rating 5 out of 5]

This is a piece of very interesting reading. Author provides historical overview of early American economic forecasters. Moody, Babson, Poor, Fisher. Names that you know if you have studied economics or business, but never realized where they are coming from. especially liked the part on Herbert Hoover. I haven't read an y single book, where Hoover was not presented as a "villain" or looser.

The book is for those who are interested in history of Economics, forecasting, and those who know that forecasts are always going wrong.

[Ariadna73 · Rating 3 out of 5]

This book features biographies of several prominent figures in economic forecast. One of my takeaways is that those people live really long lives. Even one that was diagnosed with Tuberculosis at 29, lived to the incredible age of 92! Who knows! maybe they found the key to long and good quality of life, although they don't even know it!

[Steve Yamarik · Rating 4 out of 5]

I liked it. It was a short, interesting, and accessible account of early practicationers of economic forecasting. I am an economist so i was an easy target,

[Susan · Rating 3 out of 5]

nice overview but ultimately fails as he does not attempt to explain why all the forecasters basically missed Black Friday, October 29 1929. Great footnotes.