Will You Be Alive 10 Years from Now?: And Numerous Other Curious Questions in Probability

by Paul J. Nahin

A collection of stimulating probability puzzles from bestselling math writer Paul NahinWhat are the chances of a game-show contestant finding a chicken in a box? Is the Hanukkah dreidel a fair game? Will you be alive ten years from now? These are just some of the one-of-a-kind probability puzzles that acclaimed popular math writer Paul Nahin offers in this lively and informative book.Nahin brings probability to life with colorful and amusing historical anecdotes as well as an electrifying approach to solving puzzles that illustrates many of the techniques that mathematicians and scientists use to grapple with probability. He looks at classic puzzles from the past--from Galileo's dice-tossing problem to a disarming dice puzzle that would have astonished even Newton--and also includes a dozen challenge problems for you to tackle yourself, with complete solutions provided in the back of the book.Nahin then presents twenty-five unusual probability puzzlers that you aren't likely to find anywhere else, and which range in difficulty from ones that are easy but clever to others that are technically intricate. Each problem is accompanied by an entertaining discussion of its background and solution, and is backed up by theory and computer simulations whenever possible in order to show how theory and computer experimentation can often work together on probability questions. All the MATLAB(R) Monte Carlo simulation codes needed to solve the problems computationally are included in the book. With his characteristic wit, audacity, and insight, Nahin demonstrates why seemingly simple probability problems can stump even the experts.

Genres: Nonfiction, Mathematics

256 pages, Kindle Edition

First published January 1, 2013

About the author

Paul J. Nahin is professor emeritus of electrical engineering at the University of New Hampshire and the author of many best-selling popular math books, including The Logician and the Engineer and Will You Be Alive 10 Years from Now? (both Princeton).

Reviews

[Brian Clegg · Rating 3 out of 5]

There are few mathematical subjects that are better at tantalising and intriguing than problems involving probability. In part because our natural grasp of probability is so weak, the outcomes of probability questions have an unrivalled ability to take us by surprise, to the extent that some simply deny that the outcome can possibly be right. I remember when the Monty Hall problem was first publicised a number of us were so unhappy with the right answer that we wrote computer simulations to see if the counter-intuitive solution was correct. (It was.)

This is doubly apt when looking at Paul Nahin’s book as it features regular examples of computer code to check out results, and it covers a number of other problems that were publicised by Marilyn vos Savant in Parade magazine, the same source that made Monty Hall famous in the first place. Here though, sadly, Ms vos Savant is on the losing side, as Nahin points out a number of errors in her columns that have covered probability problems.

For the general reader, this book is a real mixed bag. There are some absolute gems – problems that you can really get your teeth into and have fun with (and then often find you took entirely the wrong path), but there are also rather too many that could only excite a mathematician. Questions like ‘Given a unit square, and two points picked at random on the square, what’s the average distance between the points?’, I’m afraid does not get me even faintly interested. It’s also the case that the computer programs, in a language called MATLAB that I suspect is only available to mathematicians, are unlikely to be valuable to most readers (they would have been more accessible if he’d used Excel’s programming language, I suspect, but even then, most readers would simply ignore them).

So I think this a book that the general reader has to be prepared to skip through parts of. But it’s well worth that effort, because the bits that are of wider interest are genuinely captivating and surprising. If you aren’t scared off by formulae and probability intrigues you, give it a go – you won’t be disappointed.

[William Schram · Rating 4 out of 5]

Probability is a relative newcomer to the world of mathematics. Despite that, Probability is a popular subject for examination and puzzles. Sometimes the result is obvious. However, some problems can stump even the most lauded geniuses.

Paul J. Nahin writes about Probability in this book. He does not cover Statistics, but I wasn't disappointed. First, Nahin covers historical problems. Who wins when people abandon a game? How do you figure out the exact payouts? Most books on Probability contain puzzles like these, with marble-filled urns or flipped coins. Therefore, Nahin tried to extend beyond puzzles of that nature. I believe he succeeded.

Nahin writes programs in MATLAB to analyze the problems. He includes the code and doesn't use features exclusive to MATLAB. On the other hand, he doesn't use computer simulation for all of the problems. Nahin expects the reader to solve them as exercises. The book resembles Digital Dice, another of Nahin's books where he uses simulations to solve puzzles.

The titular problem of the book is easy to answer with Life Expectancy Tables and a bit of Calculus, so Nahin answers that one in the 23rd chapter. You will need Probability Distributions as well.

There is one puzzle that he does not answer, but it is a hotly debated problem in Decision Theory. Newcomb's Paradox is a problem I hadn't heard of before.

I enjoyed the book. Thanks for reading my review, and see you next time.

[Michael crage · Rating 2 out of 5]

I did not expect the book to be as strong mathematically, because I thought it was a book for popular consumption. I have a BS in Math and some of the math in it was outside of my knowledge. It was a book about several, many obscure, probabilities. Then he used some obscure programming language which would (as an example) flip a coin 100.000 times to prove his calculations were true. He did this for every item or sub item.

[Ayush · Rating 2 out of 5]

Not as great or counterintuitive as the author makes it to be.

[David F. · Rating 3 out of 5]

A great collection of examples of statistical answers to problems. Not especially well written. Those who do not already have an interest in statistics or mathematics probably won't get more than a few pages into the book. This is not truly a useful introduction to statistics for the novice. Nor is it useful as an introduction to quantitative thinking. Most likely to be useful to those like me who teach statistics.

[Sue]

This book just wasn't for me. It's example after example of probability problems. It would be a nice supplement to a stats course, but it didn't work for what I was looking for.

[Tonymcgrail · Rating 4 out of 5]

It's very, very complicated