The Prophets of Doom

by Neema Parvini

Linear and progressive views of history have dominated the popular imagination for the past seventy years in a worldview wedded to the inexorable rise of globalisation and GDP-growth at any cost. However, the end of the Cold War failed to produce the end of history as hoped, a fact brought home to many by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Material wealth and 'Progress' in the name of 'social justice' have not made people happier or more united but quite the opposite. Anxiety, depression, fearfulness, sadness, loneliness and anger have all massively increased since 1970, with the male suicide rate at an all-time high. Western society seems to be divided against itself across every line left versus right, women versus men, 'non-whites' versus 'whites', globalists versus populists, 'the elites' versus 'the people', people who think that men can be women and vice versa versus those who insist that they cannot, and so on. Seventy-three percent of Americans believe their country is on 'the wrong track', with similar views reflected in Britain and across Europe. The Prophets of Doom explores eleven thinkers who not only dared to contradict the dominant linear and progressive view of history, but also predicted many of the political and social maladies through which we are living.

Genres: Philosophy, History, Politics, Nonfiction, Sociology, Audiobook, Anthropology

234 pages, Paperback

First published July 27, 2023

About the author

Neema Parvini is a British academic, writer, and YouTuber. He is currently a senior fellow at the Centre of Heterodox Studies at the University of Buckingham. He is best known for his work on Elite Theory, especially his critique of populism in The Populist Delusion (2022), but is also noted as a literary scholar of Shakespeare.

Reviews

[Ciro · Rating 5 out of 5]

A massive undertaking. Brilliant research and a keen understanding of how to explain the cyclical view of history through the eyes of some of the more complicated philosophers throughout western history. Understanding history in cycles rather than linearly will bring the current times into focus much more clearly. 5/5

[noblethumos · Rating 5 out of 5]

In The Prophets of Doom (2023), Neema Parvini presents a compelling examination of cyclical theories of history, challenging the prevailing linear and progressive narratives that have dominated Western thought for decades. By analyzing the works of eleven thinkers who foresaw societal and civilizational decline, Parvini offers a nuanced perspective on contemporary global challenges.


Parvini organizes the book into chapters, each dedicated to a distinct thinker who espoused a cyclical view of history. The selected figures include Giambattista Vico, Thomas Carlyle, Oswald Spengler, Arnold Toynbee, Arthur de Gobineau, Brooks Adams, Julius Evola, John Bagot Glubb, Pitirim Sorokin, Joseph Tainter, and Peter Turchin. Through concise summaries, Parvini elucidates each thinker’s perspective on the rise and fall of civilizations, highlighting their commonalities and divergences.


For instance, Vico’s The New Science critiques Enlightenment rationalism and introduces a cyclical pattern of societal development, while Spengler’s The Decline of the West posits that cultures undergo life cycles akin to biological organisms. Tainter’s analysis of complex societies suggests that increasing complexity leads to diminishing returns, culminating in collapse. By juxtaposing these theories, Parvini underscores the recurrent themes of growth, decay, and renewal in human history.


Parvini’s work is commendable for its synthesis of diverse historical and philosophical perspectives into a coherent critique of progressive historiography. His accessible writing style renders complex theories comprehensible, making the book valuable to both scholars and general readers interested in historical cycles. As noted in Chronicles, Parvini “has rendered a considerable service to intellectual history by summarizing and comparing often unappetizing yet obviously urgent writings, providing a convenient conspectus of declinist thinking.” 


However, the book’s focus on predominantly Western male thinkers may be perceived as a limitation, potentially overlooking contributions from non-Western or female scholars who have also engaged with cyclical theories of history. Incorporating a more diverse range of perspectives could have enriched the analysis and provided a more comprehensive understanding of the subject matter.


The Prophets of Doom offers a thought-provoking exploration of historical cycles, challenging the entrenched belief in linear progress. Parvini’s insightful analysis of eleven seminal thinkers provides a valuable framework for interpreting current global uncertainties and societal divisions. This work serves as a crucial resource for those seeking to understand the patterns of rise and decline that have shaped, and continue to shape, human civilizations.

GPT

[… · Rating 4 out of 5]

Very good and accessible overview of about a dozen doomsdayers. The earlier chapters over figures like Vico, Evola, and Spengler are much more enchanting and evocative than the cold calculation of intellectuals like Tainter and Turchin, which conclude the book. And while Pavini does a fantastic job of highlighting the theoretical commonalities of societal collapse between each of the thinkers presented, his most convincing argument is that prophetic writers of history provide a much more comprehensive and convincing argument when they are undeniably grounded in the artistic and mythic abstractions of human life.

[B · Rating 5 out of 5]

Another great book from Neema Parvini. He makes difficult topics easy to understand and read. There's lots of great thinkers in this book. A must buy.

[Christopher · Rating 1 out of 5]

A weird one. I found this recommended as an overview of some conservative thinkers on the idea of cyclical history. I knew a little of Spengler, Carlyle, and Toynbee, and I wanted to learn more.

Turns out, Parvini has other ideas, because below the gossamer-thin illusion of a disinterested overview of some key thinkers on the topic, Parvini in fact uses this little volume to push his confused fascist ideology. An irritating discovery that doesn't take long to uncover.

The apex of this deranged journey comes fairly early, with the chapter on Evola, which opens with the author placing himself in the unenviable position of attempting to persuade the reader that Evola is not a fascist and also that fascism is totally misunderstood and actually pretty cool! To achieve this, Parvini, as he is wont to do throughout this book, takes cover behind the words of others, in this case, variously, an underground cartoonist, a eugenicist, and an ethno-nationalist. Why you would attempt this with Evola is very mysterious to me as the man was clearly off the charts kooky, yet there I found myself, following Parvini with bemusement as he attempts to convey this unhinged lunatic’s rantings to me in all seriousness and Evola is just dribbling on and on about spiritual racism and new age nonsense.

I was fully checked out by this time, but I persisted anyway, even through the chapter on Glubbs, a “thinker” so vague, reactionary, and insubstantial that I have no idea why he was included.

Along with Evora, Gobbienau is afforded generous poetic license where his system of thought fails to correspond with reality and we're assured that when he talks of race and blood he isn't *really* talking of race and blood but merely a vital life force that animates the “savage”, “practical”, and “chivalric” man. The author freely invents these terms to replace Gobbienau’s “black”, “yellow”, and “white” races. A convenient but unusual step of reinterpretation that somehow fails to place me at ease.

Throughout this transparent and tedious exercise, Parvini strings together endless quotations on his subjects, so that his own writing barely breaks through, except to occasionally exit quotes by assuring the reader “This is mostly correct… This, again, is mostly correct” (what is somewhat incorrect about the quotes is never explained) and to draw lazy modern parallels that supposedly “prove” this or that thinker prophetic. This process only seems to prove that Parvini is incapable of independent thought.

The statistics that Parvini uses here and there are either poorly cited, overly opinionated, misconstrued, or all three. Checking the sources is good for a laugh, because Parvini is clearly incapable of accurately quoting or understanding any of them, such as when he confidently states that “Between 1972 and 2022, the number of marriages between men and women has decreased by 50 percent in the USA” while citing a stat for the UK. Curious also that Parvini leans so heavily on the Guardian as his news source. Something about fascists and sadomasochism, I suppose.

When I came to Brooks Adams' prophecy of an age of degeneration ruled by untrammelled capital and grifters, I couldn't help but think of Parvini and his website flogging courses (on the economy, no less) for hundreds of euros. Adams says, “But when the economy becomes ripe … greed is stimulated, and society produces Commercial and self-serving types.” Prophetic, indeed.

In short, Parvini seems uncomfortable in the present and dreams of a return to a time when the masses were ruled over by an Aryan aristocratic super race from the polar regions or something. I forget already. In any case, it has something to do with Davos and BLM. Good luck with the grift, Parvini!

[putperest · Rating 5 out of 5]

This book covers the ideas and work of eleven thinkers across time, with the specific focus on cyclical theories of history against the linear idea of progress, which is posited as a borrowed concept from the Christian eschatological view of Divine Providence. Not surprisingly, all cyclical theorists see themselves in the period of "doom", the 4th season of civilizations.

Cyclical views of history trace their roots to antiquity, both the Greco-Roman pagan view of life and ancient Hindus believed in cyclical theories. Linear views seem to emerge with the rise of Judeo-Christians.
Not all linear views are optimistic, such as the medieval Christian view, where it views everything becoming worse until the second coming. The optimistic and progressive views of civilization and history required the mental developments of Cartesian, Newtonian and Lockean thought, which enabled the belief in discoverable universal laws that in turn aid man to master his environment and himself, materially, morally and socially. Not much needs to be said on the effect of the Enlightenment.

The process of decay is explored and each thinker has his own idea, some suggesting an oscillation between eras, some suggesting a strict pattern of 4 seasons or 4 ages etc. On the method of decay, most thinkers are in agreement on some form of Regression of the Castes, which is term by Evola, where power slowly leaks over time to lower and lower castes below the Divine Leader who embodied both the warrior and priest class.

The interesting thing about the doomsayers was that they viewed the celebrated rise of Enlightenment and rationalism as the symptoms of downfall, as many of them viewed as a degradation of the martial warrior-spirit, the heroic, the poetic, the mythic, the felt sense of God that led the great chain of being. Not only that, they view this era of overt rationalization and cynical intellect as something that happened many times, with examples from history given - unlike the views someone like, say, David Deutsch, in his The Beginning of Infinity, would posit that we're living through a one-off mental development that is wholly unique in history and will take us to Infinity - which sounds like pure Enlightenment dogma, viewed from this perspective.

I'm in high favor of ruthlessly challenging our previously held beliefs, and honestly not sure which view is closer to truth. You can see my review of Deutsch's book to see how much I liked that one when I read it a couple of years ago, but something here rings true immediately, without much thought - wherein Deutsch had crystalline rationality.

Anyway, the most captivating thinkers here were Vico, Carlyle, Spengler and Evola (and honorable mention for Toynbee) - all of which I can't wait to read first hand. Overall a great introduction to these thinkers. Now get out!

[Christopher · Rating 4 out of 5]

I have read many of the thinkers featured here, not read a few, and hadnt even heard of one or two of them. As a practitioner of cyclic historiography ever since I discovered Ibn Khaldun in my undergraduate studies, I am glad someone made this book. Ignoring the premodern, the author focuses solely on more recent thinkers (and thus ignoring much of Chinese and Indian thought) who specifically existed in times and societies where cyclic thinking went against the grain.

The book is both valuable as an introduction to those new to these thinkers as well as a useful overview to see the greatest hits all compared side by side. From the complex (Spengler and Toynbee) to the robust (Turchin, Adams) to the ridiculous (Carlyle, Evola) and all kinds in between, it is fascinating.

One gripe I do have is that author, while entitled to his opinion of course, disavows his desire to editorialize in the beginning and then proceeds to do exactly that in many subsequent chapters. This produces mixed results but overall undermines the more neutral tone of the rest of the text with contemporary op-ed issues inserted at the end of certain chapters. Also, I get that Tainter can be an annoying reddit-tier thinker sometimes but nothing he does is as ridiculous as say Evola, who the author is far less critical of.

[Fnaught · Rating 3 out of 5]

Baby’s First Apocalypse

[Josh]

I wish that there had been some discussion of Chinese ideas about cyclical history. Seems like a big thing to ignore.

[Hank · Rating 4 out of 5]

The Prophets of Doom (2023) är skriven av Neema Parvini som även går under namnet Academic Agent på youtube. Boken är del två av en tänkt trilogi (del ett är The Populist Delution som släpptes 2022) där författaren först utmanar den demokratiska myten, sedan den progressiva historiesynen och slutligen den officiella och regim-godtjända världsbilden efter 1945.

Alternativet till den progressiva historiesynen är självfallet cyklisk historia. Parvini undersöker tolv stycken ”domedagsprofeter” och deras syn på historia. Författaren är i vanlig ordning mästerlig när det kommer till att koka ner och summera massiva verk till någonting greppbart, koncist och pedagogiskt. Detta kan vi säga utifrån egen erfarenhet då vi har läst närmare hälften av de författare som behandlas i boken. Vi rekommenderar denna bok varmt, framförallt till de som är nyfikna på alternativa sätt att se historia på¨.

Vi ger författaren själv det sista ordet och låter honom sammanfatta och sammanställa sin slutsatser:

“Since most of the Prophets of Doom were largely ignorant of one another, and since those who were not sought to distinguish their differences, it is logical to conclude that the convergences represents some aspect of the truth being recognised independently by different observers. I will list the ten most prominent of these:

1. The Spark, the animating spirit of the early warrior caste, is distinct from the religion that comes to predominate and maintains the later multiethnic empire, which I will call The Imperial Altar.
2. Civilisational successes – such as conquest, wealth, art, education – generates their own loss conditions.
3. The Barbarism of Reflection destroys the foundations of the Imperial Altar and successfully kills any last remnants of The Spark.
4. The castes of the lion archetype (warriors and peasants) have mutual antagonisms with the castes of the fox archetype (priests or intellectuals and merchants).
5. Where the lion archetype predominates either as monarchism (warriors) or as Caeasarism (peasants) ´civilisational successes´ can be held in check for a period. They tend to create strong regimes through ruthlessness but such strength, ironically, leads to the managerial need for administration generated by growth and complexity, which in turn leads to the rise of elites of the fox archetype taking over.
6. When the fox archetype predominates, either as theocracy (priests/intellectuals) or plutarchy (merchants), ´civilisational success´ may accelerate but, in the process, the very foundations that facilitated such success in the first place (i.e. the strong regime maintained by the lion´s ruthlessness) are corroded, eventually leading to collapse.
7. Quantity has a quality all of its own, which manifests as all that is ´mass´: democracy, utilitarianism, standardisation, and the destruction of quality and distinction. This is a feature of the late, pre-collapse cycle.
8. Individuals of one civilisational season cannot embody the spirit of another: the Children of Winter, for example, cannot embody the Spring.
9. Civilisation is incommunicable. The ´world-feeling´of a people as Spengler says is ´not transferable´. ´What one people takes over from another – in “conversation” or in admiring feeling – is a name, dress, and mask for its own feeling, never the feeling of that other.
10. Ethnicity is a constant reality which promotes ingroup solidarity in the early cycle and becomes a problem for the ruling class to manage in the late cycle.”

[Alex · Rating 4 out of 5]

Just like Neema's last book Prophets of doom is a succinct, readable, and somewhat opinionated summary of philosophers and "social scientists" who all come to a similar conclusion.

I found his explanations of the authors I've read to be quite accurate and well researched. And for the ones I have not read I feel as if I now understand the jist of what they were saying well.

There is one thing that depending on your view holds this book back from proper recognition or perhaps a benefit, is that Neema doesn't present this unbiasedly, he clearly has favourites and can be quite dismissive of criticism and points of some of the authors. He also like in his last book makes points that a lot of people would be turned off by (such as clear right wing views and January 6th defending.) I tend to agree with his beliefs and assertions but it will forever stop his books from being considered academic and pidginhole his audience.

I recommend this book to anyone who has an interest in Neema or any of the book's philosophers.

[Curtis Price · Rating 5 out of 5]

A New Pareto

Parvini, in dispassionate, crystalline prose, analyzes nine thinkers from various ages and disciplines and their arguments against progressive, linear understandings of history. Parvini is an excellent writer, able to tease out subtleties that a lesser writer may have overlooked. Highly recommended.

[Xuchron · Rating 4 out of 5]

An insightful book that, through an exploration of a series of against-the-grain thinkers, provides an overview of the cyclical - as opposed to linear - theory of civilisational history.

In essence, what this means is that decay is "baked in", a necessary phase that invariably results from bureaucratic consolidation and material prosperity. The history of a given civilisation can be divided (broadly speaking) into stages of genesis, rise, decadence and fall, after which the same process repeats with a new civilisation taking its place. Parvini and the thinkers discussed give their own interpretations on how and why this happens - some taking a more "poetic" or "mystical" approach and others seeking to ground themselves in the empirical method. Parvini provides a comparative analysis of these thinkers and their works in order to identify a cohesive pattern running through them. Despite the conviction of certain modern figures that they were presenting an understanding of history that was distinct from their less empirically-minded predecessors, the book illustrates how they ultimately describe the same core processes but through differing lenses.

[Liquidlasagna · Rating 3 out of 5]

weird book, weird guy

but i admire his unusual choice of pessimists...

Toynbee the historian, with a few quirks
Evola the off the rails italian pervo-mystic weirdo and fascist

Glubb, the fave pal of King Hussein of Jordan, who got pushed out when the political climate got iffy, with some great views on the Middle East in the 1950s

has the feel of the Loompanics Corporation
actually


..........

The analysis is quite nutbar, but it's fascinating even if he's slightly off his rocker, and well, just as well since some of the Prophets of Doom on the cover are off their rocker.

I think the ideas and questions asked are far better than the third-rate interpretation and analysis...

And actually think i like the book for the idea of just picking a dozen different historical figures who cried wolf, and getting an eccentric author to deeply examine these people with a deeply flawed perspective.


For the pessimist, realist, or crank
who needs a stocking stuffer after the Halloween skeletons start snickering at YOU

[Kerem · Rating 5 out of 5]

Parvini presents an interesting collection of various thinkers who have presented some version of cyclic history, starting with Vico and spanning to many others such as Spengler, Toynbee and Evola. Giving first a brief history of cyclic history going back to ancient Greece, Parvini focuses on each thinker's major work (or in few cases on their general philosophy). As he states in the introduction very clearly, he has his bias against the linear/progressive view of history that has been enforced top down for several decades, and the book makes many strong arguments against it. It also gives you a good encouragement to read some of the original works.

[Corey MacVicar · Rating 1 out of 5]

Parvini insists he’s only “presenting perspectives,” but his bias is impossible to miss. His real message is that the modern world — with its liberalism, technology, and social progress — is in decay, and that the old “prophets” saw it coming.
There’s nothing wrong with critiquing modernity, but Parvini stacks the deck. He treats every thinker who lamented progress as profound, while ignoring how many of them were elitists, racists, or mystics who dressed up personal bitterness as philosophy. His chapter on Julius Evola, for example, tiptoes around the man’s open fascism as if it’s a minor footnote. That kind of intellectual carelessness undermines the entire book.

[Jakob · Rating 4 out of 5]

Views of cyclical history from eleven intellectuals that gives cause for scrutiny of our established beliefs of linear societal evolution. A common thread is their skepticism of the notion of “Progress,” running counter to the modern absolute belief in that concept. The prophecies presented here seem much more apt to our modern condition than those from believers in progress from the past. An excellent primer for a bunch of different thinker's respective works.

More reading: https://chroniclesmagazine.org/review...

[Gee · Rating 5 out of 5]

an eminently readable survey of the major purveyors of the idea of "big history" and civilizational cycles (from Spengler, Toynbee to Tainter, Turchin with some Mosca/Pareto references thrown in). some poignant analogies are made to the undeniable current, fast-decaying social situation. breaks no real ground, but highly recommended.

[William · Rating 4 out of 5]

I enjoy the succinct and clear depictions of each of the 12 prophet's theories. Vico and Spengler pique my interest in particular. It's an introductory text really, but I'm looking forward to reading the Author's original works in time. Well written and useful for understanding the situation we're in. 7/10.

[joan · Rating 4 out of 5]

Interesting investigation of the many attempts to get hold of history at the very big scale, the biggest that doesn’t lose the fact that it’s particular human beings that make everything happen.

I have to say, a editor was wanted here. Lots of small and irritating infelicities. Nothing catastrophic though.

I enjoyed the kind of 12 Days of Christmas chorus that builds up as each new thinker’s version of cyclical history is strung to the end of all that have come before.

As to finding a fractal key to history.. not sure. Much food for thought though.

[Lazich · Rating 3 out of 5]

Pretty good book overall, although not as interesting as the previous one. The constant comparisons between the ideas of all the "prophets" got a little tiring. Also a bit heavy on the quotations, sometimes it felt like I was just reading the stated opinions and ideas of other people rather than the authors' own.

[Brett Lindenfelser · Rating 4 out of 5]

Fantastic overview of various thinkers views on the cyclical theory of civilizations. Featured writers such as Thomas Carlyle, Oswald Spengler and Arnold Toynbee I found particularly interesting. I will have to read their writings in further detail

[Charlie Casey · Rating 4 out of 5]

An interesting look at nine philosophers/historians and their 'romantic' accounts of cyclical history - the rise and fall of civilisations, in cycles.
Would serve as an excellent primer for each philosopher respective works.

[Andrew · Rating 4 out of 5]

The book was overall insightful and informative, but would have been more impactful with more "for instance he thought that" type comments, to more specifically articulate what a person thought practically, rather than sticking to broader abstractions.

[Jim Nicholson · Rating 5 out of 5]

A clear introduction to the remarkable insights of some key thinkers who have been relegated to the fringe in most modern discussions.

[Paul Riley · Rating 5 out of 5]

Interesting, thought provoking, some would say shocking view of history through the eyes of various independent thinkers.

[JW · Rating 4 out of 5]

Good, brief introductions to cyclical history theorists.

[Paul · Rating 3 out of 5]

Now I want to read more of these writers he analyses, even if the author gives them more credit for their predictions than is warranted.

[Laurie · Rating 3 out of 5]

7/10

[S · Rating 1 out of 5]

I was intent on giving this a 2 but then phrenologist Parvini went like "Ummm akchually Evola wasn't a fascist ..."