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The Tragedy of the European Union: Disintegration or Revival?

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The European Union could soon be a thing of the past. Xenophobia is rampant and commonly reflected in elections across the continent. Great Britain may hold a referendum on whether to abandon the union altogether. Spurred by anti-EU sentiments due to the euro crisis, national interests conflict with a shared vision for the future of Europe. Is it too late to preserve the union that generated unprecedented peace for more than half a century?

This is no mere academic question with limited importance for America and the rest of the world. In the past decade, the EU has declined from a unified global power to a fractious confederation of states with staggering unemployment resentfully seeking relief from a reluctant Germany. If the EU collapses and the former member states are transformed again from partners into rivals, the US and the world will confront the serious economic and political consequences that follow.

In a series of revealing interviews conducted by Dr. Gregor Peter Schmitz, George Soros -- a man of vast European experience whose personal past informs his present concerns -- offers trenchant commentary and concise, prescriptive The euro crisis was not an inevitable consequence of integration, but a result of avoidable mistakes in politics, economics, and finance; and excessive faith in the self-regulating financial markets that Soros calls market fundamentalism inspired flawed institutional structures that call out for reform. Despite the considerable perils of this period, George Soros maintains his faith in the European Union as a model of open society. This book is a testament to his vision for a peaceful and productive Europe.

208 pages, Hardcover

First published January 28, 2014

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About the author

George Soros

114 books576 followers
George Soros is a Hungarian-American financier, businessman and notable philanthropist focused on supporting liberal ideals and causes. He became known as "the Man Who Broke the Bank of England" after he made a reported $1 billion during the 1992 Black Wednesday UK currency crises. Soros correctly speculated that the British government would have to devalue the pound sterling.

Soros is Chairman of Soros Fund Management, LLC.
As one of history’s most successful financiers, his views on investing and economic issues are widely followed.

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Displaying 1 - 17 of 17 reviews
Profile Image for Athan Tolis.
313 reviews741 followers
November 11, 2016
The book is more about Soros himself than it is about the European Union.

In four interviews with the Europe correspondent of Der Spiegel you discover the wartime experiences that shaped Soros’ romantic views about the European Union as an “ideal free and open society” and gave him his fundamental insight that if the rules are past their sell-by date you need to break them. Soros tells us what he thinks the EU did right, where he thinks it steered wrong (when it imposed a common currency without carrying on with the reforms that would render the EU an ideal currency union), and why he thinks Europe is now condemned to a lesser future than it could have achieved. You also discover how bad the legendary trader wants to be remembered as a philosopher and a man who used his financial resources to help shape history. And his views about the Middle East, the Ukraine and world politics in general are actually very relevant. Leave it to him to say Putin is currently supporting Assad so the price of oil can stay above 100. You really need to be an 83-year-old billionaire to put that sort of thing in print.

That said, I think he’s got the tragedy wrong. As I’m writing this, Italy can issue 10yr bonds at 3% yield and Angela Merkel’s softly-softly approach that he spends two of the four interviews attacking, seems to have worked. The main economic issue Soros laments, namely that European states have been forced into the position of Latin American countries borrowing in dollars, the essence of the tragedy, seems to be resolved. And Angela Merkel who did not do something radical when she faced a different environment, who did not “lead or leave” Europe, looks vindicated.

That, I presume, is where the fifth chapter of his book ought to come into play, the bonus Appendix where he explains his theory of human fallibility and reflexivity, negative feedback loops (of the kind that made the spread of Italy mean-revert to the current 100bp versus Germany) and positive feedback loops that made it explode in 2011. Soros will have to wait for one of those positive feedback loops, I fear. Meantime, us mortals will have to chuckle about the fact that the theory mainly applies to giants like himself who actually CAN move the market when they trade. I don’ think Apple stock much cares when I’m in and out…

IMHO, the tragedy is not that Germany did not lead, it’s that Europe came face-to-face with bankruptcy and refused to change. Italy still has 28 closed professions and the infamous Article 18 that restricts the size of most business to 15 employees, Greece still has 700,000 public employees (against, say 1,700,000 federal employees in the US), Spanish banks have still only admitted that 13% of their loans won’t be paid, Brussels continues to refuse any assistance to Southern European states that are begging for help with immigration; German real estate is about to go stratospheric due to inappropriately lax and cheap money. We continue to have a distinct North and South, basically, and that’s because it is now 100% expected that the ECB will print.

Soros fails to predict, in essence, that Germany would endorse monetization, and laments an austerity that will not take place for a little while more, when we get to the point of sharing the American experience, which is that you cannot lift anyone but the very rich with the help of the printing press.

Merkel bended, basically. I await the next Soros book, where we’re told why that wasn’t enough.
Profile Image for Mike Scialom.
Author 3 books5 followers
June 10, 2014
The recent European elections have concentrated minds on what exactly is going on in the European Union and the process of re-evaluation makes George Soros’ The Tragedy of the European Union: Disintegration or Revival? all the more timely.
Soros, of course, is one of the world’s richest men and has proved so ruthless – sorry successful - as an investor that you might question his motivation and even the sincerity of his pronouncements when it comes to diagnosing the state of play in the Eurozone. I did. And it’s quite right that one should do so, because Soros is a master at pursuing investment opportunities, most notably on Black Wednesday when he made $1bn from short selling sterling during a crisis which forced the UK to withdraw from the ERM. But eventually, I was won over by his candour, charm and the sheer scale of his wisdom. Hold the front page folks, older man finds out that there’s more to life than making money for its own sake!
The structure of The Tragedy of the European Union is essentially in the form of extended interviews with Gregor Schmitz, Europe correspondent of Der Spiegel. Part One deals with the story so far and Part Two with the future.
You will be familiar with the assessment of the EU’s problems but Soros, who is Hungarian and survived the Battle of Budapest as a teenager, is clear-eyed at 84. The “internal contradiction” in the EU is that although there is “a deeply felt commitment to the euro, there is also a very strong determination to take on as few liaisons as possible in making the euro work”. Actually although the EU is always presented as a grand scheme for Europe, its ambition is very basic: not to have another war. But when push comes to shove – and before shove comes to shunt – “creditor countries, such as Germany, provide support to the weak ones extremely reluctantly and keep it to an absolute minimum”. And the ruling elite bungled it big-time when with the budget cuts because cuts were made in public spending at exactly the time when the credit crash meant that more people were becoming unemployed anyway. “The social safety net – which was the pride of the European Union in the past – doesn’t work, just when you need it the most.” And history shows us that such circumstances are always a breeding ground for extremists of every description. Soros’ biggest concern is that “the prospect is for long-term stagnation”, and moreover that, while a nation can usually survive such a fate, the EU is not a nation, it’s a “voluntary and incomplete association of nations that may not survive a long period of stagnation”.
But “this dismal prospect… could easily be escaped”.
How? asks Schmitz.
“The rules that govern the euro are no longer appropriate and need to be changed.”
So, it’s game on. The key change Soros wants is for Germany to “lead or leave the euro”. Because Germany is “in denial” of being the imperial power in Europe it “turns into an oppressor and exploiter without being aware of it”. He compares the German approach to the Spartans’ creed. “Spartans were taught to other people’s pain without flinching.” In the prevailing negative political dynamic “anybody who finds the prevailing arrangements intolerable is pushed into an anti-European posture”. And surely this is the crux of the huge rebellion that the Euro-elections represents. People are not voting against the European Union per se, they are voting against what is wrong with EU. And Germany must choose: “either become a benign leader, which means agreeing to a strong banking union and some form of Eurobonds, or leave the euro and allow debtor countries to mutualise their government bonds”.
In Part Two Soros moves on from economics. He doesn’t expect the Bundesbank to accept his analysis, “and that’s why the Eurozone is facing a long period of stagnation”. But he’s not giving up on Europe, he’s “giving up on changing the financial arrangements… I will continue to focus on politics, because that is where I expect dramatic developments”.
Soros, to his credit, is the founder of a global network of foundations dedicated to supporting open societies”. One, the Open Society Initiative for Europe, highlights the fact that asylum seekers have to register in the country where they first enter the EU. This traps asylum seekers, who remain illegal and in transit. “They are condemned to illegality for an indefinite period. The miserable conditions in which they live feed into an anti-immigrant sentiment.” Xenophobic, anti-EU parties – you know who they are – “then use the migration issue to get votes… There is a crying need for a fundamental rethinking of both migration and asylum policy.”
He’s also worried that Britain might leave the EU. “That would be a big step forward in the disintegration of the European Union – because Britain has always played a balancing role between hostile blocks on the Continent.”
In the last few chapters of this remarkable read Soros looks outwards, to the dangers from outside, which don’t stop mounting while the EU prevaricates. But here, Soros is less shrill, less hectoring, and hyper-cogent. The big winner of the EU’s inertia is Russia. “Russia has moved into this power vacuum.” Putin, though weak, is ever the karate expert. He attacks because he is weak, “and it is paying off because of the weakness of the West”.
China “has to change its growth model, which has been exhausted”. China’s days of mega-growth are over. “Nobody knows how much debt a state-controlled economy can accumulate before it collapses, and nobody knows what form that collapse will take.”
The Americans aren’t going to help so much because Europeans aren’t as important to them as they were in the past. “The Obama administration has pivoted from Europe to Asia.”
Finally, in an intriguing twist, Soros puts out to Edward Snowdon. Though the US administration is clearly determined to put Snowdon in jail, Soros believes he would be far more useful as “an advisor to the US Government in how to correct the excesses of the military”. And, of that won’t work (and it won’t), “I would be happy to have him work for my foundation as an advisor so that we could be more effective in our critique of the Obama administration’s surveillance policies”.
Soros is right up there as a geo-political thinker with Henry Kissinger, and he should be forgiven more readily because his excesses debased the financial system rather than nation states and human rights. The Tragedy of the European Union (£12.99, PublicAffairs) goes a long way towards completing his rehabilitation as a giver more than a taker.
257 reviews6 followers
November 16, 2021
I felt a bit out of depth reading this work as I don't have any extensive knowledge on banking and the European union, but nonetheless a very interesting read. It was surprising to see Soros, a Jewish person having experienced the second world war. advocate for Germany to take a dominant leadership position in the EU, and that this position wasn't actually too uncommon, with the German government itself shying away from power due to the past mistakes of history. At the time this work was put together Soros feared the disintegration of the EU and all it promised, and as it happens, his predictions are starting to prove correct with Britain voting to leave. At the end of reading, it was refreshing to see a Eurocentric vision of the world compared to the usual subject matter of continued American dominance or of a future Chinese superpower.

Oddly enough, the most valuable section of this book is it's appendix, which features an essay by Soros detailing his ideas on Fallibility, Reflexivity, and the Human uncertainty principle. This is a really interesting essay that is worth reading. In my mind it went hand in hand with other works like "Thinking, Fast and Slow" by Kahneman and "The Black Swan" by Taleb, which highlight the inadequacies present in a person's ability to perceive events without bias and act on them in an impartial manner, including the act of predicting future events. Soros's idea, as I understand it and as a simplified explanation, is that we take on a biased view of the world and then using that incomplete information act out in a manipulative fashion, with those same biases, in order to effect outcomes. This then forms a cycle that feeds on itself basically leading to the phrase "if enough people believe in something it starts to become true", that is, up until reality becomes too hard to ignore. Overall a book that is worth reading despite being dated as a discussion on the pre-brexit EU.

Some quotes I found interesting:

"...there is an unbridgeable conflict between the North and South [Europe] on the political asylum issue. The countries in the North, basically the creditors, have been generous in their treatment of asylum seekers. So all the asylum seekers want to go there, particularly to Germany. But is more than they can absorb, so they have put in place a European agreement called Dublin III, which requires asylum seekers to register in the country where they first enter the EU. That tends to be the South, namely. Italy, Spain, and Greece. All three are heavily indebted and subject to fiscal austerity. They don't have proper facilities for asylum seekers, and they have developed xenophobic, anti-immigrant, populist political movements."
"Asylum seekers are caught in a trap. If they register in the country where they arrive, they can never ask for asylum in Germany. So, many prefer to remain illegal, hoping to make their way to Germany. They are condemned to illegality for an indefinite period. The miserable conditions in which they live feed into the anti-immigrant sentiment." (Pg.98)

"[Question] Schmitz: Would you call Snowden a hero?"
"[Answer] Soros: I respect him, and I would love to have him as an adviser of the US government in how to correct the excesses of the military. Actually, I would be happy to have him work for my foundation as an adviser so that we could be more effective in our critique of the Obama administration's surveillance policies." (Pg.124)

"[Popper}...argued that the empirical truth cannot be known with absolute certainty. Even scientific laws cannot be verified beyond a shadow of a doubt: they can only be falsified by testing. One failed test is enough to falsify, but no amount of conforming instances is sufficient to verify. Scientific laws are always hypothetical in character, and their validity remains open to falsification." (Pg.128)

"There is only one objective reality, but there are as many different subjective views as there are thinking participants. The views can be divided into different groups such as doubters and believers, trend followers and contrarians, Cartesians and empiricists-but these are simplifications and the categories are not fixed. Agents may hold views that are not easily categorized; moreover, they are free to choose between categories and they are free to switch. This is what is usually meant by free will, but I consider free will a misnomer. People's views are greatly influenced but not determined by external factors such as the views of others, heredity, upbringing, and prior experiences. So reality is halfway between free will and determinism." (Pg.137)
84 reviews
July 26, 2023
This book contains a series of interviews by Gregor Peter Schmitz with George Soros. This book gives us insight about what actually happens with the European Union especially the economy factor.

This book is very fun to read due to it being formatted by conversation format between Schmitz and Soros so although the topic discussed is very heavy but I as a reader can enjoy reading this book.

As someone who keeps interest in Europe, Soros is someone who is credible enough to talk about Europe's economy.

The interview in this book is done 10 years ago so the event that is predicted by Soros can be seen now whether it's a true or false one.
Profile Image for Francisco Portela.
1 review
January 23, 2025
Para quem gosta de ver perspetivas da crise económica entre 2008-2012 em calão financeiro, recomendo bastante este livro. Para quem pensa que este livro é de uma fácil leitura, dado o seu tamanho, vai apanhar uma surpresa pois existem imensos conceitos e termos que quase parecem uma diarreia de palavras. Creio que a última entrevista é a melhor, pois já previa um pouco da motivação da Invasão Russa na Ucrânia, e numa entrevista anterior previa o aumento de movimentos populistas pela Europa.
Profile Image for Marcus Goncalves.
818 reviews6 followers
November 6, 2017
‪Read Soros book The Tragedy of the European Union. An interesting and certainly worth reading text, despite being written in 2014, if you are trying to get an overview of the crisis and historical factors around the EU.‬
31 reviews
May 11, 2023
So I read a couple pages of this at the beginning of the year and then forgot about it. Finally sat down and finished it. While I found most of the book fairly interesting and informative. Certainly reading this book now is kind of funny. Especially the last chapter.
3 reviews1 follower
April 10, 2018
Soros' vindication on why his theories are superb to others. Interesting to learn about his two theories "Reflexivity" and "Fallibility" as well as why the EU collapsed/is collapsing in his opinion
1 review
November 16, 2018
Something good about soros that we might want to learn from.. he is very manipulative of the macro environment.. take advantage of it for his own fortune.. overall i like him..
Profile Image for Adrian.
276 reviews26 followers
April 20, 2015
The first thing to be noted with this volume, it is not the usual format one may be familiar with through Soros's previous works, and the format of books on current events relating to economics. It is in the form of a series of interviews, which may be the economic, modern equivalent of Plato's dialogues.
Having said that, it is a very good read, and a worthy update of Soros's previous contributions to the field. The book is worth reading as a follow up to Soros's previous Financial Turmoil in America and Europe, however this updates Soros's thinking on the field to take into account recent events.
The basic premise turns the commonly held assumption, that Germany is the savior of the EU, on it's head. Soros points out that Mrs Merkel is doing the bare minimum to save the EU, and the notion of Germany leaving the Euro, a notion held as a possible danger by others, would according to Soros, be a net bennefit.
If Germany left, the periphary countries could competitively devalue, their exports and services would be more competitive, and a new Deutschmark would be more reflective on the net worth of Germany's currency.
Soros contends that peripheral Eurozone countries are now in a situation similar to Latin American or other developing countries, who borrowed in the dollar, and are forced to repay in the dollar, in contrast to countries like the US or UK, who always have the last resort of printing their way out of debt.
Soros also speaks of the other unfortunate trends taking place in Europe, such as the rise of ultra-nationalist parties, and the growth of anti EU parties, and how this can deadlock further European progress.
The latter part of the book contains a basic grounding in Soros's personal philosophy (despite the fact that he refers to himself as a failed philosopher) and is a worthy read in addition to Soros's other works.
In all, a small, but worthy insight into the dilemna facing the EU.
Profile Image for Ankit Wadhwa.
3 reviews21 followers
December 27, 2015
This book is not written in the usual essay style, rather its a series of interviews. Soros views about the EU are very anti German. In most parts of the book he holds Germany responsible for the current situation (which to a great extent is) and how can it also be a savior. There isn't much commented about Britain or anything about Britain's exit though.

Soros can be a complex man to understand however Schimitz does a wonderful job in breaking down his thought process in a way that is simple and easy to understand by asking intelligent counter Questions.

The appendix is very concise and succinct. I developed a better understanding of the theory of reflexivity through this small appendix than I did it by reading The Alchemy of Finance.

Soros's philosophies and his deep thinking are simply amazing. Would have given it five stars had he not just emphasized on Germany and had given a more holistic view comprising the other aspects that go into the making of a stable European union.
25 reviews
April 6, 2014
I'm not an economist but I thoroughly enjoyed the interviews and the economic paper by Soros and his explanations for the failings in the European project. The book brings across his theory of reflexivity and the weaknesses he perceives in the current economic and political systems, as well as an ongoing frustration at politicians', economists' and regulators' inability to admit their fallibility and adapt to a new world and financial market environment. Potentially worth providing a copy to the new MEPs voted in on 25 May in the next European Parliament and this should also be mandatory reading at the European Commission and the European Council!
Profile Image for Clement Ting.
73 reviews9 followers
July 23, 2015
The book is split into 2 sections. The interview with Soros which was further split into 4 parts and the Appendix.

The interview touches on the following topics:
Why and how was this a flawed system?
Why did the problem only surfaced in the latter years?
How did the problem occured?
Who is at fault?
Can we fix this?

There were some terminologies used fairly frequently by Soros during the interview and the Appendix serves just that purpose in explaining these terms in a very philosophical (and boring) way.
108 reviews
January 26, 2016
An extensive interview with George Soros by Spiegel's Europe correspondent George Peter Schmitz. The problems, which the euro as a single currency are creating for the European experiment are discussed as a, or actually the, big risk to unravelling of the EU.
Lack of democratic legitimacy of the European Union's power structure is not discussed. The arguments are all very economy-related, and Mr. Soros makes a strong case for getting Germany out of the euro in order to allow the other euro countries a chance to become competitive again and get their house in order.
Profile Image for Nizam.
68 reviews4 followers
October 5, 2014
Highly recommended to read. George Soros gives a lot of insights about Euro crysis, his views and how to fix the crisis. some might not agree with his views but i think it is always good to get to know a different world point of view especially from a man who knows better than most politicians and people living.
Profile Image for Bernardo Moura.
51 reviews1 follower
January 31, 2018
George Soros é frequentemente acusado de ser manipulador e de lucrar com a especulação financeira. Este livro permite-nos conhecê-lo um pouco melhor e explica de forma repetitiva alguns dos problemas na origem da crise europeia, aparentemente com boa intenção.
Profile Image for Phil Toop.
44 reviews6 followers
June 18, 2016
An interesting perspective on the Economic crisis Europe has been dealing with since the GFC in 2008, as well as a good introduction to George Soros's theory of reflexivity.
Displaying 1 - 17 of 17 reviews

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