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The Echidna Strategy: Australia's Search for Power and Peace

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In the wake of a shift in the global power balance, how can Australia best protect itself?



The Echidna Strategy overturns the conventional wisdom about Australia's security. Australia will need to defend itself without American help, but this doesn't need to cost more.



The truth, which no Australian political leader is willing to confront, is that America's security is not threatened by China's rise. Once we accept that conclusion, the entire edifice on which our security has been built crumbles, and we need to start afresh.



Yet, despite the rapid growth of China's military, defending Australia need not be particularly difficult. Our leaders insist on making it expensive and hard. Even worse, in the name of the US alliance, they expose our country to more danger.



The Echidna Strategy sheds new light on the contest for leadership in Asia and the strategy Australia needs to thrive. This includes a radically different approach to defence. Above all, it means a bolder Australian foreign policy, with three leadership in the Pacific; a much stronger relationship with Indonesia; and a regional order centred on a gathering of its great powers.



'Essential reading for anyone interested in our nation's security in an uncertain world where the enduring supremacy of the United States cannot be assumed or assured.' ––Malcolm Turnbull



'Here is a voice, bold in its conclusions and forensic in its logic, which defies the echo chamber of current strategic policy.' ––Peter Varghese

233 pages, Kindle Edition

Published August 29, 2023

32 people are currently reading
178 people want to read

About the author

Sam Roggeveen

4 books3 followers
Sam Roggeveen is the director of the Lowy Institute’s International Security Program.

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Displaying 1 - 14 of 14 reviews
95 reviews7 followers
September 11, 2023
I found this book profoundly disappointing. It promised much, but seems to further fragments the alternative strand of thinking about Australia's future of the Indo Pacific. What a shame.

But, let's start with the good. This book is strongest where it's aims are clear and simple. At 210 well spaced pages, it's accessible and eminently readable, with a clear structure and breezy chapters. And Chapter 5 is a standout, with a persuasive blow by blow takedown of the rationale behind AUKUS and nuclear submarines. That chapter is almost worth the price of the book itself. The final chapter pulling it all together is well compiled also.

That said, it misses much.

The book seems to completely miss the major challenge of our age, climate change. Nowhere does it talk about the implications of Australia's near neighbour islands becoming uninhabitable or the overarching existential challenge of climate change. The focus very much is a traditional conception of 'national security', which seems to miss the main game of the 21st century.

The chapter searching for a reason for America's continued involvement in the Indo Pacific seems to miss the most persuasive reason that America might remain: imperialism and resurgent ultranationalism. This is galling as each of the presented rationales hints at this as a justification, even referring to US domestic politics specifically, but doesn't address it directly.

And after presenting the principles for an echidna strategy, including to maintain defensive capability, the book misses one of the most important aspects: what does this mean for Australia's joint intelligence facilities which the author names as the North West Cape Naval Communications base and Pine Gap. What are we to make of these, how do they fit into the principle?

The book makes it arguments mostly through logic and hypotheticals, which can be a bit unconvincing. It often lacks evidence, and seems temporally confused, moving from now, near future and far future almost in the same paragraph.

Finally, the book somewhat fragments the landscape further. While it pays lipservice to Hugh White's similar argumentation, the author does little to summarize, integrate and differentiate their thinking compared with, for example, Allan Behm's writing in this space

All in all an interesting contribution but didn't live up to my expectations.
22 reviews2 followers
February 2, 2025
The Echidna Strategy is an illuminating read detailing Sam Roggeveen's vision of an independent, deterrence based method for Australia's defence policy. Like an Echidna Australia would be solitary and untethered from a global superpower, seem harmless when unbothered, but act lethally in defence of itself. The goal is to make us as unappealing a target as possible by both reducing opportunities for escalation and investing heavily in cost-efficient armaments capable of incapacitating war machines many times their cost.

The vision starts with a bold claim: that the United States of America can no longer be relied upon to defend Australia against China. On its face this seems a ridiculous claim. Australian politics has a bi-partisan consensus in favour of the US as our great power ally, and the recent AUKUS deal seems a significant symbolic gesture on the part of the Americans that they are serious about Asia. However, Roggeveen argues that the cause of the split will not be a grand gesture - a great cutting of ties - but that America's lack of continued investment in Asia signifies an absence of domestic will to deny China's place at the top of its regional sphere of influence. AUKUS in his mind represents a great deal to the Australians but little other than a good piece of business from the Yanks, one that is unlikely to reverse the slow recusal of their role as world police.

Reading this book in a post Trump 2.0 world where trade wars are being waged against Canada and the seizure of Greenland from a fellow NATO member is a serious consideration does not make this vision of an Asia free of American military influence hard to imagine.

Roggeveen is a self-professed conservative but falls into the Eisenhower tradition, quoting Ike's Chance for Peace:

Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed. This world in arms is not spending money alone.It is spending the sweat of its laborers, the genius of its scientists, the hopes of its children.

The cost of one modern heavy bomber is this: a modern brick school in more than 30 cities.
It is two electric power plants, each serving a town of 60,000 population. It is two fine, fully equipped hospitals.
It is some fifty miles of concrete pavement.
We pay for a single fighter plane with a half million bushels of wheat.
We pay for a single destroyer with new homes that could have housed more than 8,000 people.


Many modern visionaries of a great-power-less Australia then couple this with a vision of a defence-spending-more Australia. Roggeveen is distinct in his channeling of conservative philosophy to defend a vision for a prudent Australia, that does not need to spend a cent more than it currently does and instead reallocates current spending reinvent the ADF as a deterrance force. More focus on Air and Sea and relief capabilities for our pacific neighbours, less on Army and large scale offensive capability. AUKUS is the perfect example of a spectacular fail in this new calculus and the cost of its waste will be measured in the bottom line of budgets 40 years hence.

As a layman the most interesting part of this book is the perspective on Indonesia. Often forgotten in talks of global geopolitics Indonesia is a nation of near 300 million people with an economy soon to be in the top 10, who is unlikely to be content with a third tier place in Asia. In Roggeveen's mind we should be embracing our neighbour to the north and look to strengthen military and economic ties wherever possible, with the dual goals of signing a mutual-defence pact against potential Chinese aggression and placating Jakarta to prevent any potential Indonesian aggression. Distance is safety, Indonesia and the pacific nations are close and China is very far. If we can sort out our backyard then we are unlikely to face and major threat to the mainland.

Overall I think this is a must read. When mainstream opinion aligns on policy it can often be easy to blind yourself to alternatives, but Roggeveen gives a heterodox perspective on our current geopolitical that is an utter breath of fresh air even if you contest its claims entirely. Although I am not entirely convinced America will truly abrogate its Asian influence I am now far less bullish on our current rules based order than I used to be, and aspects of this vision for Australia can be integrated no matter where our Yankee bond goes.
Profile Image for Pete.
1,107 reviews79 followers
June 10, 2025
The Echidna Strategy: Australia’s Search for Power and Peace (2023) by Sam Roggeveen is a really interesting look at how Australia should defend itself. Roggeveen works at the Lowy Institute.

The book initially examines if the US will keep their strong presence in Asia. Roggeveen then describes China’s military and the potential threat it poses to Australia. He then provides priorities for what Australia’s policy should be. AUKUS and how Australia keeps on buying offensive weapons is then described. The book then outlines what Australia should do instead.

It’s really a good book and Roggeveen makes a lot of good points. He states that China is going to become the preeminent power in Asia and will shape the region. His belief that the US will retire from the region is possibly overstated. Provided the US doesn’t go insolvent it can keep bases in South Korea and Japan for a long time. But the main thesis, that China’s economic heft and it’s location mean it is the regional hegemon.

The book really shines in how Roggeveen proposes to defend Australia. He argues that more affordable weapons, which could disrupt any invasion of Australia, are more useful. These are more effective than super expensive weapons like the proposed AUKUS nuclear submarines. He points out that defensive operations in Afghanistan, Iraq and Ukraine have been successful. He could also have added Vietnam.

The emphasis on relations with Indonesia is also wise. If Indonesia is supportive of Australia then Australia’s strategic position is very solid.

The Echnida Strategy is a very good read. Anyone who is interested in Australia’s defence should enjoy the book.
Profile Image for Philip.
52 reviews1 follower
September 16, 2023
I enjoyed reading this book. It's refreshing to read a book on Australia's foreign and Defence policy that criticises the current political orthodoxy of going all the way with the USA. It is a topic that needs serious examination.

The first pillar of the author's argument is that China cannot pose an existential threat to Australia due to the vast distances between the two countries (Beijing is closer to London than it is Sydney). The second pillar is that China's rise does not threaten the USA's core security interests. China's desire to carve out a sphere of influence in East Asia does not pose such a great military, political, or economic risk that the USA is willing to risk catastrophic war to defend its dominance in the region (is the defence of Taiwan really worth WWIII?). When push comes to shove, the USA is unlikely to use its military might to stop China from becoming the regional hegemon.

The author poses the question: why does current Australian foreign and defence policy reduce the geographic distance between Chinese and Australian interests? The acquisition of offensive weapons such as nuclear submarines, bombers, and cruise missiles means that Australia will be able to attack the Chinese mainland. Why would Australia antagonise China like this, particularly given the relatively small size of Australia, and the likely withdrawal of the USA from the region. Such an offensive capacity poses little threat to China at great cost to Australia.

In answer, the author argues that Australia should instead adopt an echidna strategy by developing an affordable but effective defensive posture by focusing on anti-access/area denial (A2AD) weapons. Interestingly, a 2016 RAND study found that the cost of a defensive maritime strategy could be as little as one-fiftieth of the power projection capability it is designed to neutralise. This defensive maritime strategy would go hand-in-hand with efforts to diplomatically align with Indonesia and the Pacific Island countries to maintain the geographic distance of China.

I gave this book three stars because it seems to have straw-manned the opposing arguments. For example, the author does not discuss the possibility that the development of Australia's offensive capability is not aimed at attacking the Chinese mainland (which would be futile), but at deterring China from developing military bases in Pacific and the near north in the event of a gradual US withdrawal from the region. That said, this book is worth a read.
2 reviews
September 18, 2023
A short, sharp and persuasive book. It's at its best and most satisfying when it pulls apart the disaster that is AUKUS as well as convincingly arguing why Australia needs to put on its big boy pants and calmly prepare for a future without necessarily having a larger, extraregional ally providing a drum to which we can march.

A little expensive in paperback for only 211 pages (not including acknowledgements, etc) but share it among friends and family to increase that value! - its basic arguments need to be disseminated throughout Australia:

1) don't expect the US to forever be interested in and capable of being no. 1 in China's backyard;
2) don't tie ourselves to American foreign policy if it's not in our interests;
3) China has bigger potential foes to.worry about than Australia, there's no need to stir up trouble with the Dragon;
4) Distance is our friend;
5) Restructure the ADF so we can master A2/AD in the air-maritime approaches to Australia rather than act as an auxiliary arm to the US military.
6) Australia must NOT join a war over Taiwan that risks going nuclear if the US joins in. Yes, even at the cost of ending our alliance with it.
This entire review has been hidden because of spoilers.
Profile Image for John Ellis.
81 reviews1 follower
March 27, 2025
The Echidna Strategy: Australia’s Search for Power and Peace

Sam Roggeveen’s The Echidna Strategy is a bold and thought-provoking reassessment of Australia’s defense posture in an era of shifting global power dynamics. His central argument - that Australia should be able to defend itself without relying on the United States - challenges decades of strategic thinking and proposes a more self-sufficient, regionally integrated defense strategy.

What Works
✓Compelling and well-argued – Roggeveen makes a strong case that Australia's reliance on the U.S. is risky, given America's shifting priorities.

✓Timely and relevant – As tensions in the Indo-Pacific rise, this book forces Australia to rethink its security position.

✓Challenges conventional wisdom – Australia is caught between its economic ties to Asia and its security ties to the U.S., and this book doesn’t shy away from the contradictions.

Where It Falls Short
!! Execution is unclear – While the vision is strong, the book lacks detail on how Australia could realistically transition away from U.S. dependence.

!! Underestimates U.S. influence – Australia is deeply embedded in Five Eyes intelligence, military tech, and governance structures - is true autonomy even possible?

!! Ignores regional skepticism – Can ASEAN, Japan, and India truly trust Australia as an independent security player, or will they always see us as a Western outpost?

Final Verdict
The Echidna Strategy is a must-read for anyone interested in Australia’s security, foreign policy, and future in the Indo-Pacific. While some of its ideas may be more aspirational than achievable, it raises critical questions that policymakers can no longer ignore.

Recommended for: Geopolitics buffs, policymakers, and anyone interested in Australia’s evolving role in global security.
Profile Image for Andrew Norton.
67 reviews30 followers
September 9, 2023
An interesting and readable critique of Australia's AUKUS defence build-up to counter China, by Sam Roggeveen of the Lowy Institute.

Unusually, it is written from a conservative perspective. This is not the culture wars conservatism of today, but the conservatism of the most impressive (in my view) intellectual conservative of the 20th century, Michael Oakeshott.

In Roggeveen's Oakeshottian formulation, his conservatism is the 'preference for moderation over extremism, tradition over ideology, evolution over revolution, and a deep suspicion of utopianism.'
Profile Image for Greg.
568 reviews14 followers
September 13, 2023
Brilliant book. Very readable. Methodically explains why Australia should look to its own defence against China rather than rely on the American alliance. It would actually be cheaper and more reliable. We don't need nuclear submarines patrolling the South China Sea with missiles that can reach 2,000 miles into the Chinese interior. Anti-ship missiles that can stop Chinese fleets approaching Australia are far cheaper and less likely to get us tangled up in engagements in the Taiwan region, and don't require American support. They are also fat less threatening to China.
10 reviews
October 19, 2025
I am now convinced that AUKUS is good for Australia, despite the author setting out to convince the reader otherwise.

This book is written in plain English, with very little military jargon or use of acronyms. If anything, I would have liked a bit more technical detail. The point about Australia being too distant for China to effectively project force against is overemphasised.

Despite this, I would highly recommend this book to anyone interested in the topic.
Profile Image for Evan Foster.
60 reviews1 follower
March 16, 2024
This is an interesting book, certainly makes some compelling arguments why we should adopt a different defence strategy, but was very jargon heavy and felt like it was written more for the defence establishment than it was for the lay reader.
141 reviews
August 26, 2024
3.5 - short and clearly written

Definitely agree with the main approach that defence and foreign policy in Australia (and broadly worldwide) requires a more sober consideration of where a nation's true strategic interests lie (especially so now where the strategic environment is more challenging)
Profile Image for Erin Cook.
346 reviews21 followers
September 3, 2023
I didn't agree with everything, but it gave me a lot to think about and that's the best outcome with a read like this
Profile Image for Mark.
114 reviews1 follower
June 15, 2025
Very easy reading on a quite complex topic. The author highlights a lot of accepted assumptions that are rarely questioned in this public policy in Australia. I did feel that some of the content may need to be compared against other arguments, but this doesn’t detract from the key ideas - and these are quite strongly articulated. I think most Australians should read this book, given the vast amounts of money being spent on defence and the implications of wasteful spending in terms of opportunity cost to the community.
122 reviews
October 8, 2023
Great book the sort of thinking needed in the space but perhaps underestimates the cultural influences at play
Displaying 1 - 14 of 14 reviews

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