The amazing lesson from this depression is that no one knows much about the real causes and effect of ANYTHING." -- W. W. Kiplinger (1929)
What caused the Great Crash of 1929? That's what I've been trying to figure out the last few weeks. Stocks were over valued, but there wasn't a typical bubble that suddenly burst sending the markets spiraling downward. Certainly fear turned to panic selling forced the markets abruptly down during the last weeks of October. But what triggered the first massive wave of selling? Who pulled the carpet out from under Wall Street, and how? Turns out that no one may ever be able to put a thumb on the ultimate cause. Henry Ford curtly said the crash was due to a "serious withdrawal of brains from business." Klein offers a much more ambitious explanation. He argues that the market's crashing was due to a "perfect storm" created by several small, marginally interrelated cultural and economic factors that all contributed to creating the great market meltdown. He attempts to "convey ... a sense of the interplay between the shifting mood of Americans ... and the key events that influenced them.... in this way can one begin to comprehend what was involved in this pivotal moment." Sounds intriguing. Unfortunately, his argument isn't at all persuasive.
Instead of revealing clear cause and effect relationships between cultural phenomena and market trends, Klein gives us over 200 pages of social history and biography, which -- interesting as pole sitting, the founding of GM, and the scandalous adventures of Aimee Semple McPherson may be -- are never clearly tied to the pivotal moment of the market's first stumble. The crash itself doesn't occur until two-thirds of the way through the book and is over within a few pages. I was left feeling as bewildered about what just happened as any trader on the floor must have felt on Black Thursday. The last two chapters wander off into the 1930s, tracing some of the government's attempts to slow the country's descent into the Great Depression. I got to the last page expecting to find a chapter that would some how tie all his information together, offering some sort of conclusion. But instead, when I turned the page, all I found were the notes and bibliography. Oh Maury, you've fallen far short of your promise to explain the Crash in terms of American's preoccupation with fads, advertising, and proto-televangelism.
So maybe Kiplinger got it right 80 years ago: maybe nobody will ever really know what let loose that first disastrous sell-off. Better though to admit that you don't really have the answer than to drag your readers through nearly 300 pages of rehashed social history and then sneak out the back door leaving your guests bemused and befuddled.