Few subjects are as directly relevant to every person on earth as economics, from an individual’s purchasing power for basic necessities and investment choices for financial security, to macro-economics which influence elections, to wars and as a source of global political maelstroms. How did we arrive to where we are today? Much of it originated from, or was the result of, theories developed in response to various cataclysms, including the great depression of the 1930s, the second world war, and the more recent recession that cost the US economy alone many jobs and, by some estimates, approximately $20,000 to each man, woman and child in the U.S. I read this to understand, as a layperson, the subject better. It is remarkably relevant to our issues and debates today.
The causes of these cataclysms are much debated, but the economic theories which led to policy changes and election outcomes (initially in the US and UK) are generally divided into a “war” of ideas between “Keynsian” and the more eponymously names “neoliberalism” philosophy espoused and promoted predominantly by Hayek and, more recently, by Milton Friedman. It is a complex discussion, but this author delineates nicely and provides a (mostly) concise history of how these theories developed and were promoted. Today the role of government in regulation and control of the economy could not be more relevant, as our elections are often decided based on voter understanding of which candidate’s policy is more likely to produce the net best financial benefit. Notably, the election of Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher represented a shock-wave shift from Keynesian (John Maynard Keynes) to neo-liberal ideology, although the author suggests it was more of a slow wave and even Jimmie Carter was a first practitioner. These effects are still felt today, as this shift is now going through another phase of discussion (some would say the ethics of neo-liberalism are so generally accepted and unquestioned as to be the silent creed underneath the policies of both major US political parties). To break this down in very simplistic terms: Keynes believed that factors influencing the economy are often random and un-knowable, therefore smart, educated (technocrat) people are collectively the best possible solution to create the policies that drive government interventions in order to avoid economic and geopolitical catastrophes; whereas those espousing neoliberalism suggest that there are immutable laws driving demand and supply which, if left alone by government intervention, would ultimately lead to the best possible outcomes for the maximum number of individuals. I would argue that both schools of thought are still employed today, though neo-liberalism is predominant, and western democracies are continuing to experiment with neo-liberalism as an idea whose outcomes remain uncertain, yet we fall back on more Keynesian approaches when high unemployment or events such as the economic trauma in the US started a decade ago cause enough pain. But what caused that disruption in our economy, and what should be done about it?
The author argues that the “horrors” of the 1930s (Europe, US) enabled Keynesian economic theory after WWII, but as it evolved into the civil rights movement in the US (and the more socialistic labor power in the UK), neo-liberalism ideas gained a foothold into the republican party, where it resides most prominently today. The other major driver was the anti-communist fears in full tilt. These two events, plus the relatively lesser trauma endured by the US during WW2 (vs the Europe), led to the nomination of Barry Goldwater. Though defeated, his ascent signaled the rising power of neo-liberalist thought, most stalwartly supported by William F. Buckley. In part this defined the American conservative movement we have today. The author conflates, but not excessively, the nascent racism and conservatism on social values (in response to the emergence of the baby boomers and their challenge to traditional norms) as further fuel to this fire. This came after a long run of Keynesian economics (i.e. more pronounced government control through monetary control of prices of goods and services or, demand management), which had served most western democracies after WWII in particular. This began to erode in the 1960s and 1970s with the emergence of inflation and high unemployment, ultimately leading to the elections of Thatcher and Reagan (as a 20 year old I was caught in the sway of his masterful oration and homey turns of phrase, such as “the most frightening thing anyone can hear is the government say we are here to help” – I paraphrase roughly). Thence came a overhaul of government (again, predominantly in the US and UK, initially) to a massive extent, where regulations were reduced and the role of government in regulating commerce reduced, leading to major international programs such as NAFTA. The culture embraced it (Family Ties, a television show, nicely framed the debate) and Wall Street gained power. There were always detractors (Reagan’s own David Stockman was chastised for his public criticism of the trickle down theory). Taxes on the wealthy went down in the US, corporation shake-ups occurred, and the world order was re-set. To greatly simplify, the lack of government regulations allowed certain corporations to succeed and those with capital (personal wealth) to greatly enrich themselves in the new world order. Ultimately it led to the use of goods produced by the cheapest possible labor in all parts of the world (often third), hence displacing a segment of western jobs typically filled by the middle class. The rich got much richer and the poor poorer, some greatly benefited, others suffered. Most believe the de-regulation of the banking system led to the 2008 recession, costing the US economy and causing the loss of many homes. The lack of oversight of who can lend to whom led to predatory lending and a very unhealthy business cycle that the US is just now emerging from. Friedman would say that the problem is not a lack of over-sight, but a weak stomach to let failed business ventures fail. I would say the human loss and toil is not humane when these enterprises collapse, and we need to find that balance. This is the power of those neo-liberal ideas which evolved from Adam Smith to Hayek and Mises many years earlier. If anything, Stedman-Jones illustrates the power of a beautiful idea allowed to germinate and develop. It is cautionary to me, where we should argue for our principles when they are ideas and before they become policy – regardless of the issue. And today, more than ever, we are debating the role of government in controlling or encouraging corporate activity and banking.
My view on this is that the economic theories known as Keynesian and neo-liberal, have evolved (some would say been compromised) from the originator’s intention. This is obviously necessary, as all policies become the gestalt of the current body politic and tend to be shaped in the image of the players in place. What I see as failure is when the principle becomes a religion, and its adherents drown out criticism and discourse. Unfortunately those divisions are sharper than ever today and social media has made the battle lines even clearer. Stedman-Jones does a fine job of balancing the views of the issues and (mostly, and transparently) keeping his own out of this treatise – it leaves the reader with a vast amount of information and history from which to draw their own conclusions. This is a tremendously researched, and, in sections, ponderous review of its subject. Therein lies its value, as I can’t imagine anyone would attempt a more thorough version of this topic. My only mild complaint is that it is UK / US focused and it does not talk enough about the global impact of neo-liberal ideas and their ensuing policies. On the other hand, this meticulously research, well written book was exactly what I needed to increase my understanding. It covered a time in which I became politically aware, so the history was familiar through a different lens and the author’s perspective held my interest.
This was dense reading for an amateur such as I, and far less entertaining than the movies Wall Street and The Big Short which reflect a certain ethos. I would be interested in the views of formally trained economists and practitioners after have read this.