What do you think?
Rate this book
The Next Great Bubble Boom: How to Profit from the Greatest Boom in History: 2006-2010
For over fifteen years, New York Times bestselling author Harry S. Dent, Jr., has been uncannily accurate in predicting the financial future. In his three previous works, Dent predicted the financial recession of the early nineties, the economic expansion of the mid-nineties, and the financial free-for-all of 1998-2000.
The Next Great Bubble Boom -- part crystal ball, part financial planner -- offers a comprehensive forecast for the next two decades, showing new models for predicting the future behavior of the economy, inflation, large- and small-cap stocks, bonds, key sectors, and so on. In taking a look at past booms and busts, Dent compares our current state to that of the crash of 1920-21, and the years ahead of us to the Roaring Twenties. Dent gives advice on everything from investment strategies to real estate cycles, and shows not only how bright our future will be but how best to profit from it.
Dent gives us all something to look forward to,
The Next Great Bubble Boom -- part crystal ball, part financial planner -- offers a comprehensive forecast for the next two decades, showing new models for predicting the future behavior of the economy, inflation, large- and small-cap stocks, bonds, key sectors, and so on. In taking a look at past booms and busts, Dent compares our current state to that of the crash of 1920-21, and the years ahead of us to the Roaring Twenties. Dent gives advice on everything from investment strategies to real estate cycles, and shows not only how bright our future will be but how best to profit from it.
Dent gives us all something to look forward to,
384 pages, Paperback
First published January 24, 2004
3 people are currently reading
63 people want to read
About the author
Harry S. Dent Jr.
36 books76 followersHarry S. Dent, Jr. (born 1950) is an American financial newsletter writer.
Dent writes an economic newsletter that reviews the economy in the US and around the world through demographic trends focusing on predictable consumer spending patterns, as well as financial markets, and has written several books.
Dent writes an economic newsletter that reviews the economy in the US and around the world through demographic trends focusing on predictable consumer spending patterns, as well as financial markets, and has written several books.
Ratings & Reviews
Friends & Following
Create a free account to discover what your friends think of this book!
Community Reviews
Displaying 1 - 9 of 9 reviews
May 6, 2017
This guy has been wrong more than right.
Check out the liner notes on some of his past books and you will see he is usually wrong. Read this if you want, but don't invest any of your hard earned cash in his philosophy. If you have done what he said to do since 2008, you would have lost a ton of money and missed this huge bull market we are in.
Check out the liner notes on some of his past books and you will see he is usually wrong. Read this if you want, but don't invest any of your hard earned cash in his philosophy. If you have done what he said to do since 2008, you would have lost a ton of money and missed this huge bull market we are in.
July 3, 2008
Maybe I'll like this book more if some of the author's predictions come true in the remaining years. Essentially, everything you need to know about this book is on the back cover:
* The biggest boom in history will occur in the later half to the end of this decade with the high points being 2008-2009
* After 2009-2010 the economy will see it's biggest bust ever thanks to all those slacker boomer's retiring.
While I can appreciate the author's concepts, I think in many ways they are flawed, his calculations are based on history and demographics, which change over time. So while last year, or 10 years ago or whatever spending peaked at age 48, that may not continue to be true, afterall that may be just because that people who were 48 then happened to be the highest spenders and they may continue to spend much later than previously.
So far, the predictions that should have occurred by now haven't the market isn't as high as he predicts it will be, it still looks to be in a slide, and the housing market definitely didn't have a soft landing, it was more of a total collapse (ok percentage wise a 10%-25% decline may be a soft-landing, but value wise an enormous amount of money has been lost). Even his theory on what would cause that was way off 'while the experts are predicting a collapse due to over-borrowing... blah blah blah we are predicting blah blah... I needn't finish that statement, after all we now clearly know that it was 1000% over borrowing and pretty much nothing else.
The author explains things such as the 80 year technology lags as though they were fact, in actuality, this is just a theory, since after all there's really only been 1 80 year period in the modern market and that's hardly basis for a fact. So while he uses that to predict along with demographics that the market will bust, it's a bit hard to believe. It's entirely possible that during the coming years things will develop and grow far more quickly and be picked up much more quickly.
That aside, there were some interesting things that I learned from this book that may still be applicable, such as the 0-2 years being the worst historically, and 8-9 being the best, and 1-2 years of a new presidency being the best. So in theory that means that 2008- early 2010 could, if it follows historical trends be a good time to make some big gains.
While I do tend to disagree with both the coming boom and collapse in terms of scale, I do think the aging population will have some possibly significant impact on the markets in the next 10-20 years. At the same time, I have faith in American and human greed and can therefore assume that we will still somehow find a way to increase long-term revenues and profits regardless of the short-term problems, either by cutting costs heavily or focusing in growth countries like China, Japan, India, etc... The author puts to much stock in the American market being 100% dependent on the American consumer, while I do agree today that it is, that's likely do to the fact that we are the biggest consumer so it's in our interest to be focusing on ourselves, however, as time goes on and our purchasing power diminishes, American companies will just begin to loop to foreign markets much like they look for different markets in the US today.
My theory on this book is the author just made as many dramatic contrary educated guesses as possible, so that when one hopefully comes true, he can then use the statement "when we projected X in 2004 everyone said we were wrong, but look, we were conservative and they were wrong" like he's doing now with his past books.
What's more concerning is how strongly he made these assertions in the book and often described them as conservative, but has since publicly revised some statements. Case in point, he estimated that the dow would make it to about 40k by decades end, but has since revised that downward by 50%! A 50% overestimate can hardly be called conservative at any a stretch.
* The biggest boom in history will occur in the later half to the end of this decade with the high points being 2008-2009
* After 2009-2010 the economy will see it's biggest bust ever thanks to all those slacker boomer's retiring.
While I can appreciate the author's concepts, I think in many ways they are flawed, his calculations are based on history and demographics, which change over time. So while last year, or 10 years ago or whatever spending peaked at age 48, that may not continue to be true, afterall that may be just because that people who were 48 then happened to be the highest spenders and they may continue to spend much later than previously.
So far, the predictions that should have occurred by now haven't the market isn't as high as he predicts it will be, it still looks to be in a slide, and the housing market definitely didn't have a soft landing, it was more of a total collapse (ok percentage wise a 10%-25% decline may be a soft-landing, but value wise an enormous amount of money has been lost). Even his theory on what would cause that was way off 'while the experts are predicting a collapse due to over-borrowing... blah blah blah we are predicting blah blah... I needn't finish that statement, after all we now clearly know that it was 1000% over borrowing and pretty much nothing else.
The author explains things such as the 80 year technology lags as though they were fact, in actuality, this is just a theory, since after all there's really only been 1 80 year period in the modern market and that's hardly basis for a fact. So while he uses that to predict along with demographics that the market will bust, it's a bit hard to believe. It's entirely possible that during the coming years things will develop and grow far more quickly and be picked up much more quickly.
That aside, there were some interesting things that I learned from this book that may still be applicable, such as the 0-2 years being the worst historically, and 8-9 being the best, and 1-2 years of a new presidency being the best. So in theory that means that 2008- early 2010 could, if it follows historical trends be a good time to make some big gains.
While I do tend to disagree with both the coming boom and collapse in terms of scale, I do think the aging population will have some possibly significant impact on the markets in the next 10-20 years. At the same time, I have faith in American and human greed and can therefore assume that we will still somehow find a way to increase long-term revenues and profits regardless of the short-term problems, either by cutting costs heavily or focusing in growth countries like China, Japan, India, etc... The author puts to much stock in the American market being 100% dependent on the American consumer, while I do agree today that it is, that's likely do to the fact that we are the biggest consumer so it's in our interest to be focusing on ourselves, however, as time goes on and our purchasing power diminishes, American companies will just begin to loop to foreign markets much like they look for different markets in the US today.
My theory on this book is the author just made as many dramatic contrary educated guesses as possible, so that when one hopefully comes true, he can then use the statement "when we projected X in 2004 everyone said we were wrong, but look, we were conservative and they were wrong" like he's doing now with his past books.
What's more concerning is how strongly he made these assertions in the book and often described them as conservative, but has since publicly revised some statements. Case in point, he estimated that the dow would make it to about 40k by decades end, but has since revised that downward by 50%! A 50% overestimate can hardly be called conservative at any a stretch.
December 29, 2014
When I first read this book many years ago, I felt it was one of the most dubious finance books I had ever read, with novel conclusions taken from gimmicky data. I had committed this book to memory because Mr. Dent's economic analysis was so different from anything I'd ever seen before. Now we can all look back and see that his analysis was bogus. He is a great salesman though.
June 6, 2016
Just reread this for a third time in 2014. I like to go back and check on his accuracy. So far so good. Except for a very few minor forecasts, he was significantly correct in all of his predictions. Best economist I have yet to read.
April 28, 2015
Camping equipment has 2 major surges , the 1st into ages 23-24 for young people before they settle down into their career & family cycles, & the 2nd into around the ages 53-54, the peak years for leisure travel for maturing adults.
July 3, 2013
Strike two!!
Future predictions are utter nonsense...but are cute to read after the fact to see if one can decipher where the author went wrong.
On the flip side, it may be beneficial to read Dent's new books and perform opposite of his suggestions.
Future predictions are utter nonsense...but are cute to read after the fact to see if one can decipher where the author went wrong.
On the flip side, it may be beneficial to read Dent's new books and perform opposite of his suggestions.
October 29, 2007
very inciteful
September 8, 2015
See my review here: The Next Great Bubble Boom
August 15, 2016
Unfortunately he was wrong...
Displaying 1 - 9 of 9 reviews